Superb tipping from our competition leader Tompo's Tips (Glen Sheil 16/1 & Redrosezorro 6/1) sees him strengthen his position at the top but there were also strong results for Tumbleweed King (Wonderful Tonight 5/1 & Addeybb 9.1), the Edge (20/1 Trueshan) and Profiler (The Revenant 11/2, Redrosezorro 6/1 and Dream Berry EW 8/1).
Things are getting exciting.....
Week 4 – Saturday 24th October
Week 3 – Saturday 17th October
Looking through the market this horse looks way overpriced here. He beat the rest behind Dream of Dreams last time, only beaten 1.25 lengths by the winner. Considering DoD is the general 5/2 fave for this race as I write, the 16/1 available for Glen Shiel does seem quite a vast difference. Glen Shiel has been running as well as ever lately, and seems to be the rarity of horse who is progressing as a 6 year old after 25 starts. He hasn’t won on ground this soft be he has run with credit a number of times on heavy earlier in his career so I don’t think we should fear the conditions and he’s worth a go at his price here.
Redrosezorro 3:10 Catterick WIN 6/1
Redrosezorro and Red Pike are the only course and distance winners in this field, with the former a 5 time course winner. He seems to save his best for this venue and also for the softer conditions with all but one victory coming with soft in the going description, including a recent win here on heavy over 7f off 75 in a 0-80 handicap. He’s back in another 0-80 today, this time carrying 80, but he was clear of the field by 3.5 lengths for that last win, and I fancy him to have a good chance of making it six course victories.
Three Saints Bay 4:50 Catterick WIN 9/2
Runner up in a Class 2 0-93 handicap last time looking unfortunate to run into one that day, he was 3.25 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Like today, that was over 7f on soft ground, but today he drops into a Class 4 0-86 handicap carrying top weight. That should make his task easier but he is not drawn best for one who likes to lead and he will need to break sharply to find his way to the front from stall 11. I think he will get to the front and run a big race for us.
The last time we looked for selections at Ascot the tipping rain wiped out everyone’s efforts; the forecast is a little more favourable for this weekend. However, the ground remains soft and a light wind won’t make much change to that, so conditions may suit some more than others. Normally I don’t start to look at races until the day before but this week I took an early peek at this one. The one horse that stood out for me from a very quick cursory glance was Nazeef. When I came back to the race on Friday night I added Century Dream, Molatham, Circus Maximus and lastly the probable favourite Palace Pier to the mix. Further viewing shows some possible holes in ability and consistency for CD, M and CM. That leaves me back with PP and N. Ultimately the value in the price for Nazeef sways me on the soft ground.
Ascot 13:55 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes 6f Cape Byron - Stake 0.5pt EW. 14/1
The stats for largish fields over 6f may suggest the middle draws are not favourable and I’m going to follow that tack for this race and exclude Art Power and One Master. Of the higher drawn contenders only Dream Of Dreams piques my interest. At the lower end, Happy Power and Cape Byron keep drawing me in. Ultimately I’m a fan of horses that like the familiar and the ‘CD’ in Cape Byron’s form sways me over the ‘D’ for Happy Power.
Wolverhampton 19:00 Hcp 5f A Go Go - Stake 1pt Win 13/2.
Staying with the theme of ‘familiarity’, A Go Go likes the Wolv course with a 50% win rate and 25% for the distance. The speed of Solar Park may be the downfall of AGG in this race but with a good start I think she can make the most of a tight finish.
David Menuisier top class filly winning on Arc Weekend last time out really well on heavy ground. She’ll be getting all the allowances available meaning she’s 6 pound lower then must of her other rivals. Ground won’t be a problem and with a hot in form William Buick on board I believe she’ll be staying on best in the ground. Officially the highest overall rated in the race she’s stands a massive chance. Menuisier couldn’t be in better form (43%) in the last 14 days and Buick chasing the champion jockey they’ll be giving it there all.
Even keel selling hurdle 218 Stratford Tip ingenuity (win) 10/3
Milton Harris trainer horse is really in bad form but it’s interesting that Richard Johnson takes the ride. Former Gordon Elliott trained horse when In Ireland and showed some decent form without winning only won once when winning over 6f back in 2017 for Jedd O’Keeffe. Run well latest to finish 2nd on the flat at 66/1 at bath just failing to catch the favourite in the final 110yrds. Just have a feeling he’s running into form in obviously what is a weak looking race and fingers crossed that the jockey booking is a positive.
Chamber of commence handicap 455 Wolverhampton Tip laurentia (win) 9/2
All 3 wins to date have been on the all weather with the latest being over course and distance a shade cozily under today’s jockey. The only course and distance winner in the field and seems to be in really good form. The same Jockey retain for today’s ride than last time and looks to have a massive chance for the hat trick tonight. Looks sure to run a massive race.
Dame Malliot was very impressive when landing the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket by over two lengths in June beating some solid types in Communique, Desert Encounter and Enbihaar, all of whom have run solid races since. She was then a fine 3rd in a Group One in Germany staying on strongly to be beaten less than a length with subsequent Group One scorer Barney Roy back in 4th. Her latest third behind Tarnawa and Arc 5th Raabihah also reads well. She had Laburnum, Wonderful Tonight and Even So behind her that day, and while she probably won’t get an easy lead here, I expect her to be right in the mix.
16:50C – Captain Jameson E/W 8/1
Captain Jameson’s course form reads 123 with the 2nd coming in this very race last year off a 6lb higher mark. He hasn’t troubled the judge in five starts this summer, though wasn’t disgraced in 0-95 company at Ripon in June off 82. I thought he ran a nice race in the Ayr Bronze Cup last time when finishing 7th from stall six as high number dominated with horses from stalls 21, 22, 24 and 19 finishing ahead of him. He’s returning to a track he clearly likes and it’s the first time this summer he gets proper soft ground which he will enjoy. The first-time blinkers could also eek out more improvement.
19:30 – Melodic Charm 9/2
The step back to 6f should really suit Melodic Charm and she should go close off 86 in this class four handicap. She was a good winner on debut over CD before being fairly highly tried in group three and listed company. She was too keen after wind surgery and a break over 7f at Kempton in September but was a much better third at this venue last time only getting caught deep inside the final furlong, again over 7f. Restless Rose has all of her AW form at Chelmsford so has a bit to prove on tapeta, likewise Clever Candy has only ever raced at Kempton. Inevitable Outcome was a good 2nd here last time though this looks tougher.
A high class renewal of the Champions Sprint Stakes with several old favourites and unexposed younger horses doing battle. The selection is DREAM OF DREAMS who has often been the bridesmaid in recent seasons but this year it has really come together. He was unlucky not to win the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot but made amends by comfortably winning the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury and somewhat cosily winning the Betfair Sprint Stakes at Haydock. The horse stays 7f no problem so this testing 6f on soft ground will be right up his street. He is in flying form and he can put a quality field to the sword here.
Stratford 14:53 – selection SMUGGLER’S BLUES – 0.5PT E/W 12/1
A competitive class 4 handicap chase here. The selection is SMUGGLER’S BLUES for the Tom George team. This horse is lightly raced in comparison to many of his exposed rivals in this field and whilst he hasn’t set the world alight over fences yet, he did manage a win last season on good ground at Bangor, similar conditions can be anticipated today. It is his trainer’s stats that stand out most however. George has a 24% strike rate at Stratford over the last 5 years. Whilst he has only raced eight handicap chasers at Stratford in October since 2009, he can boast a 50% strike rate and a 31% strike rate for those that have had a lay off longer than 121 days, a category which Smuggler’s Blues falls into. With his relatively lightly raced profile alongside positive trainer stats, this horse is a big player.
Catterick 16:20 – selection BEECHWOOD JUDE – 1PT WIN 7/1
BEECHWOOD JUDE is the selection in this open class 4 event. This is a horse that loves soft and heavy ground and so he’ll have the perfect conditions to run a big race today. Expect to see him ridden from the front or tracking the leader, to make this a real test of stamina for the opposition, many of which are not proven on heavy ground. Beechwood Jude won over course and distance on his return to the track in August, which was run on heavy going. He has run twice more since finishing 4th on both occasions under firmer conditions, these runs will have kept him ticking over nicely for a return to Catterick under perfect conditions today. Trainer Keith Dalgleish also has some strong statistics when running handicappers at Catterick at this time of year. Back Beechwood Jude to see them all off from the front.
The conqueror of the new Arc champion Sottass, Skalleti has proven his ability on a variety of grounds. Normally held up off the pace, Pierre will have him in a position to hopefully get this dual Prix Dollar up in the closing stages.
Jouska 13:55 Ascot 66/1
Henry Candy has had a torrid time of it recently but you can imagine how this filly must of had him beaming at Newmarket. Given her probable optimal conditions last time, she fairly outpaced her rivals in the closing stages in the style of a very smart filly. Should be ultra competitive in this field, not to be underestimated.
Le Patriot 15:56 Market Rasen 7/2
Newlands charge has shown smart form over hurdles (rated 154) and is having his second chase in his career. His 1st saw him pitted against the likes of Mister Fisher & Al Dancer and was far from disgraced in that G2 novice event. Surely primed for his return to the track, this hardy individual is going up against some fragile individuals to put them to the sword.
A real talented performer who has only been placed out of the top 2 once in all his twelve races, in fact has won 9 of his races. Went very close in this race last year and would have maybe finished closer if not slightly hampered close home. Come’s here a fresh horse as only had 1 run this season when winning 2 weeks ago ,he will be held up by PCB and if getting all the breaks and not left too late he must go very close to winning this.
Ascot 415 Raaeq 1pt win 7/2
A typical competitive Ascot handicap but I think this horse is a Group horse in waiting, has been put up 6lbs by the handicapper but is still 5lbs well in, he has proven himself over course and distance and on the forecast ground for today. He will be up with the pace judging by all his previous runs and has a real good turn of foot when asked. There must still be bags of improvement in this one as only had 5 races in his career.
Leopardstown 445 Melburnian 1pt win 9/2
A typical IRISH hcp with a decent sized field and a few familiar names, but the one I opted for here won this race in good style here last season and I think this is his target again for this season, he was very unlucky horse last time out [4th 20/1 i backed} was hampered coming round the corner by a slipping up horse then was coming with a storming run just outside the furlong marker and then got mullered in between two horse’s, finished 4th but i’m pretty sure would have won the race with a bit more luck, handicapper must have thought along same lines as put him up a 1lb, am pretty confident this horse will go very close tomorrow in fact is my best bet out of the 3.
Ran second in this race last season having been against the far rail with no gaps appearing until it was all too late. She attempts to go one better off the back of winning her third Prix de la Foret. A mare very much in form, loves soft ground and is an autumn specialist, runs this track well and at the prices offers value against Dreams Of Dreams who is short in the market despite coming here off a facile win in the Group 1 Sprint Cup over 7f at Haydock.
TEMPUS (EW - 1/5x6 places)- 16:15 Ascot 17/2
I expect Tempus to deliver and prove he’s a potential Group horse. Not disgraced when sixth in Cambridgeshire on ground that was quicker than the described 'good' given it was run in a course record time. Roger Charlton has said all along the colt is better with cut underfoot and now he gets his chance. Those comments are backed upped by his form figures of 111 on good to soft through to heavy. There should be no concerns seeing out a strongly run mile back on a softer surface over course and distance that he won on before the Cambridgeshire. From a trends angle, 3 Y-Olds haven't done well in the past and are 0-20 since race was formed six years ago (that's a huge trend favourite Raaeq will have to overcome). Five winners (from 6) carried between 9-1 and 9-6 and four winners last start was at Newmarket. Tempus fits into those last two trends.
GLENTIES - 16:20 Catterick 11/4
Glenties has run into a few well handicapped and/or improving horses during this season. Found a nice opportunity from a 1lb lower mark than at start of season against a number of rivals who are racing from career high marks. Good effort last time at Leicester in blinkers and the headgear remains on here. With the assistance of Fanning in the plate and the heavy ground should see Glenties get back in the winner's enclosure.
3:40 Ascot >> LORD NORTH E/W 5/1 I have been watching this market all week as I want to oppose the top 2. Having had my eye on the impressive PYLEDRIVER all week I have been swayed towards the GOSDEN trained horse ridden by JAMES DOYLE.With the ground coming up heavy I think this one has a real chance and ticks many boxes and can`t see it out of the first 3.
1:43 Stratford >> A BOOK OF INTRIGUE E/W NR Richard Johnson booked for this ride for a stable who he does well with takes my eye. Dual bumper winner never really showed true potential last year in 3 runs but could be a different proposition here in first handicap especially under Richard Johnson.With conditions to suit I expect to run a big race here.
800 Wolverhampton - Moving light 11/10 1 point winn . Very impressive last time.
135 Ballinrobe - sovereign gold 7/2 1 pt win. Definitely best prospect long term in this field, trainer likes her a lot and Rachel expected to win.
This three-year-old daughter of Le Havre is extremely lightly raced. She has talent in abundance though and a fortnight ago, she made just about all to win the Qatar Prix De Royallieu at Paris Longchamp in testing conditions. She looks all set to encounter similar ground here this afternoon and with trainer David Menusier in excellent form she commands utmost respect. Will Buick takes over in the saddle and given that she has won over longer trips, he will likely make the most of her proven stamina. Wonderful Tonight is set to receive seven pounds from her male counterparts including Antonio De Vega and and Dame Mallot. Every single pound will count on ground this soft and if finding for pressure, she may well be able to grind them into submission. Many of her own sex who line up here are woefully out of form. She still has further improvement to come and she has to be high on any shortlist.
3-40 Ascot ADDEYBB 9/1
A globetrotting winning machine is the best way to describe the William Haggas trained six-year-old. This ten furlong trip certainly brings out the best in him and with three wins from four starts under his belt this year, he is remarkably consistent. Two of those victories came out in Australia in the spring where he picked up wins in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill before also scoring at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He returned to the UK in time for Royal Ascot and following his exertions abroad, he found only one too strong in Lord North. Given that he probably needed to reacclimatise, that effort had to be marked up. That proved to be the case when on his subsequent start he lined up for the Doonside Cup at Ayr. Despite coming under strong pressure a couple of furlongs out, he fought back bravely and got the better of Lord Glitters by just under a length. The form of that race has already been well advertised at the fourth placed Euchen Glen has come out to win subsequently. Tom Marquand has built up an excellent relationship with this son of Pivotal and they have to rate as massive dangers to all. He has been given a two month break to prepare for this and his trainer can reap the rewards.
4-15 Ascot KEATS 14/1
Last seen out just over a fortnight ago, Keats was given a positive ride by Seamie Heffernan in a listed race at Cork. He came under a drive a couple of furlongs from home but the son of Galileo found plenty for pressure. He readily swept to the front to beat Free Solo by a little over a length. He looks to be another that is improving just at the right time and may be able to take full advantage of many rivals who have just not shown their true form this season. With the ground likely to be just as he likes it and now with Ryan Moore on board, the pair can end the season on a high for all at Ballydoyle.
This improving 3 year old, trained by the in form Ralph Beckett, is likely to outrun his odds. He hosed up in a Group 3 this time last year, and ran well at Longchamp on Arc Trials day a fortnight ago. The old adage of backing an improving 3 year old at this time of year applies to this horse, and with Stradivarius having had a tough race in The Arc, this race could throw up a surprise in the form of Max Vega.
Even So – 2.30 Ascot – 1 point win 7/1
This impressive Irish Oaks Winner was not seen out again until Arc Trials day at Longchamp over 2 weeks ago, where he ran adequately into 6th. He didn’t run at Longchamp last weekend, but has been kept for Ascot today. This filly will love the going and has an outstanding chance in what will be a very competitive renewal.
The Revenant – 3.05 Ascot – 1 point win 11/2
The unbeaten Palace Pier will be an odds on favourite here and must have a very good chance, though is unproven on ground this soft. The Revenant was a good 2nd in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes this time last year and won the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp on Arc Trials day a couple of weeks ago in the bottomless ground. He has an excellent chance.
Won the Wildenstein for the second time on its last run under a hand and heels ride, this was an impressive run considering this was his first run sinec finishing second in this race last year. The 2nd to 7th have all won since so the form is solid. This ground and trip are ideal and he looks a solid play against the fav.
15.10 Catterick REDSOEZORRO 6/1
The horse returns to its favourite track where he has won 5 from 13 starts and if you only look at those on GTS and softer this improves to 32311011. His last two runs have been on unsuitable good ground and a return to suitable ground will suit the horse in this veterans race and see him return to the winning enclosure.
15.21 Market Rasen DREAM BERRY (EW) 8/1
The horse is 2 from 2 at this track and does prefer a RH track winning 2 from 6 starts compared to a Lh track where he is 0 from 5. This is the first time that the horse has run in Class 3 hurdle race since winning at this track in 2017 when he won easily. The stable is in decent form and he is worthy of each way support.
4.20 Catterick - GLENTIES (1pt win) 11/4 - A winner back in July at Windsor over this 1m4f trip and as a result of some not so good runs subsequently this three-year old has slipped back to that winning mark of 83. The last day saw him finish a close third in heavy ground at Leicester and if in the same mood here then this colt must hold every chance, the blinkers are kept on as they seemed to have a good effect last time out and hopefully there’s more to come from him.
4.50 Catterick - CAPTAIN JAMESON (1pt win) 8/1 - Unlucky in this race last year when beaten only a neck and this five-year old is now on a 5lb lower mark. He followed that up with another close effort at this course over 6f (beaten just under a length) off a 9lb higher mark so he’s certainly handicapped to go close here if showing that level of form. He hasn’t been on top form so far this season but he has been competing in higher grade handicaps and though eighth at Ripon on second start this term that was still a fair effort from 7lb higher and his two most recent runs have hinted that his time might be coming, beaten four-and-a-half-lengths with the latest coming in the Ayr Bronze Cup. He handles soft ground and is on an attractive mark, so if first-time blinkers perk him up then I think he can outrun his odds and is an each-way player at the least.
Five year old gelding by Dubawi. Won a Group 2 contest at Longchamp two weeks ago,which was his first run since finishing second in this race last year. Acts on testing ground. Five wins and two places in eight runs. All wins have come at this distance. Has contested two Class One races, winning one and placing in the other. Trained by FH Graffard,who is in fine current form. Eight winners from 30 runners in the last two weeks.
2.30 Ascot. DAME MALLIOTT. Each way. 9/2
Trained by Ed Vaughan and ridden by Hollie Doyle. Jockey is two wins from only two rides on board. Has already placed twice in Group Ones this season. Third last time out in the Prix Vermeille. Form of that race is working out well,with three of the contestants going on to win since. Has had just five runs on turf,winning three and placing once. Excels at the distance and on the forecast going. Ultra consistent who looks set to run another big race.
1.55 Ascot. SONAIYLA. Each way 14/1.
Trained by P.Twomey and has WJ Lee in the saddle. Trainer/jockey combination has a healthy 27% strike rate. SONAIYLA has had just four runs for current stable,and has won two and finished in the frame in the other two. Does well at the distance,won two,placed two from seven races. Has won twice in the forecasted ground. Fitted with a tongue strap and visor for this race,and has already won twice when wearing this headgear.
This race has thrown up a shock result for the last two years, and Onassis is chosen to outrun her odds in this years renewal. An improving 3yo filly, she handles the ground and the track. No doubt she’s going to struggle to lay up early, but she’s not devoid of pace and her 7f strength will help her late on in a wide open race.
2.53 Stratford - Everlanes 4/1
Everlanes looked a horse to follow last spring after winning a couple of chases, and she’s expected to take all the beating here. This well bred mare has done nothing wrong over fences, winning a decent race at Kempton when last seen. She is just the type her talented trainer can squeeze more improvement from and this looks like an ideal starting point.
5.15 Leopardstown- The Mouse Doctor 5/1
The Mouse Doctor won very well over hurdles when last seen, and looks a well handicapped horse returned to the flat. Aine O’Connor was on board last time and keeps the ride here, and she’s one of the most experienced jockeys in the race which will count for plenty. When last seen on the flat The Mouse Doctor looked all over the winner but was in front too soon. A shorter trip and more patient ride should reap rewards here.
This 3yo colt horse trained by Ed Walker really loves the flat won twice on flat turf, a definite contender for this race with a good form to back him up this is one to watch out for, Last ran on 6 furlongs same as this race as long it doesn't get stuck in the middle.
1;20 ASCOT FUJAIRA PRINCE 1/2PT EW 12/1
This 6yo gelding horse trained by R Varian last race 14 days won 5 out of 9 races this horse can be able to make it a 6th on the flat, chased leader in 2nd if he doesn't get boxed in I feel he can lead all the way.
;4;15 ASCOT TEMPUS 1PT 15/2
This 4 yo colt horse trained by Roger Charlton, won 3 times out of his 5 outings on flat turf I think this horse can turn around and gain confidence and get another win, ridden over 2 f out, He ran longer races than this one which might give him the upper hand.
Mainly raced over 7f, however worth a shot at this when taking into consideration the more forward tactics used. This has brought out improvement in him after winning three races on the bounce. These have mainly been handicaps but is worth a shot in this group company and am expecting a bold showing.
Hector De Marris 1.50 Leopardstown 7/1
A maiden but had raced with some promise over the first 2 races, finishing third in first 2. not at the races last day, but on handicap debut and with Aidan O Brien running in a couple of maiden winners in Leopardstown yesterday, think there is a good chance that we have not seen the best of this one yet.
Vermillion Cliffs 3.35 Leopardstown 12/1
As outlined above, Aidan O Brien had success yesterday with a in a couple of maidens and I'm hoping that the could fortune continues. There are 2 OBrien runners in the 3.35 but a chance is taken on the unraced Vermillion cliffs at a higher price. Strong pedigree being a Galileo colt out of a Prix de l'Abbaye winning dam, hoping for a bold showing on debut.
Trueshan was headed and looked beat but rallied very strongly to get back up and win against Group horse Hamish last October. That race was run on testing ground and he should handle this deep surface fine. This season the Ebor looked like the target with an acceptable first run followed by another example of his good attitude to win at Haydock but the big day at York never went to plan with Trueshan running well but having no room to race in for much of the home straight.
ASCOT 14.30 Manuela De Vega EW 20/1
Smart filly who made all in Group 3 at Haydock on return and had little trouble landing the odds in Lancashire Oaks there next time Manuela De Vega likely to be up there so ew claims
MARKET RASEN 16.31 Court Master win 9/2
Court Master jumped very well and led just about all the way when winning at Warwick a couple of weeks ago. modest 4 pound rise. He steps up in distance here (almost 2 furlongs after they’ve moved running rails), which will suit well.
Ralph Beckett has made no secret of the fact that he believes this 4 yr old has yet to show us her full potential. She has won 5 of her 8 races , including a class 1 group race at Goodwood as a 2 year old, and as a 3 year old, she won a listed fillies stakes at Newbury over 1m 2f on soft ground. Two runs and two wins this season, starting with winning a listed fillies race at Pontefract in June over today's trip. Won at headquarters last month winning a 4 runner group race again over 1m 4f. She races off a mark of 109 this afternoon which could be several pounds below her eventual rating. She will be well suited to any give in the ground. Came 6th in this race last year but that was her first race after a break. She comes here this year with a run under her belt.
1.43 Stratford Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 2f Cold Shoulder 1 pt win NR
Won a couple of handicap hurdles when trained by Gordon Elliott including a class 4 event at Ayr over 2m 3f ,off a mark of 106. He joined Tim Vaughan in January 2019, and is yet to show any worthwhile form after 6 races, but was running initially in class 2 and class 3 races off a mark as high as 117. Can take a keen hold, but Micheal Nolan has ridden him before, and if he can get him to settle, he would have a good chance in this Class 5 race off 99, 18 lbs below his last winning mark.
7.30 Wolverhampton Fillies Handicap Class 4 ( 0-85 ) over 6f Bettys Hope 1 pt win 25/1
Betting on flat racing is not my forte, and certainly betting on the flat on AW surface is most unusual to say the least However, this 3 year old filly is trained by Rod Millman and he has his string in good form. There is no doubt that she has seriously lost her way since her two year old days. She finished second in her first 3 races as a two year old, and followed up with a winning hat trick. Wins included a Class 2 Nursery Handicap at Chelmsford, followed by winning the class 2 supersprint stakes at Newbury in July 2019. First prize £ 122,925 ! ! She has been very disappointing as a three year old, albeit starting off a mark of 89 with her first run of the season at headquarters last June. Showed a bit of form at Goodwood later that month, when beaten under 2 lengths in a six runner class 3 race over 5f. Had her first run ever at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago where she struggled to finish 5th. That was a 0-80 race over today's trip. She is two pounds lower this evening and apprentice jockey, Stefano Cherchi takes off 5 lbs ( has ridden 17 winners this season ) It is a big ask, but if this filly can show a glimpse of her 2 year old, dropping to a mark of 77, she could be bang in here at a decent price.
Taking a chance here that Frankie has picked the wrong John Gosden horse. Nazeef is 6 wins from 6 runs over a mile, has a course and distance win and also acts on the going. He also has 4 Class 1 wins to top that off. Jim Crowley has been the jockey for all of these and knows how to get a tune out of him.
Ascot 3.40 Skalleti 1pt win 10/1
This French raider has a progressive profile and the way he managed to get out of the traffic in the mud on his last run in group 2 company over this distance was very impressive. He is a horse that likes to be delivered late and hopefully will have the class to pick off a very good field.
Wolverhampton 8.00 1pt win TAFISH 7/2
Richard Hughes has a good record with his horses in this class of race and while his last run was disappointing, both his wins have been on the all weather. In a six horse race, I think there is a lot of value here as the favourite appears to have been handed a stiff opening mark.
I love this horse, he is improving all the time and Tom Marquand is really impressed with him. This is his toughest assignment to date and on ratings he needs to improve 7lbs to be in contention. I feel the underfoot conditions at Ascot will be a great leveller and at the price has a great chance of a surprise. Good draw and the man on board knows the horse well.
ASCOT 14.30 - FRANKLY DARLING - 0.5 Points EW 18/1
This Filly is the forgotten horse of the race in my opinion, second favourite for the Oaks behind Love, she has not yet produced her best this season.Under the care of the master trainer Johnny G she has had a rest since York and comes here fresh and did a nice piece of work in Newmarket recently. Rab Havlin is sweet on her chances and she can out run her odds.
ASCOT 16.15 - ORBAAN - 0.5 Points EW 12/1
This gelding was due to run at the abandoned meeting on the first Saturday of Tip Idol so I’m not going to desert him now, was due to run over 7f now over the mile on ground he won’t mind. lovely drawn in 20 Danny Tudhope can give David O’Meara’s horse a cracking ride coming late on the scene to take this lovely prize.
This Paddy Twomey grey filly should ran a big race. She won’t mind the ground and the step up from 5f last time will definitely suit. It’s a wide open renewal. Dream of dreams the favourite has never won at ascot in 5 attempts. Paddy’s stable is in cracking for as well. His last 8 runs read 3-1-5-2-1-2-2-1. That’s great form going into a group 1.
3:10C Paddy Power 1pt win 4/1
This one been on the free fall in the handicap and has been out of form for all season until Megan Nicholls got on board last time out. Was slowly away but made steady headway and unlucky not to win last time out. Up 4lb for finishing 2nd is tough but I’m happy to take a chance one.
4:50C Captain Jameson 1pt win 8/1
There would be no surprise if this one went in at a decent price. John Quinn & Jason heart both love it a Catterick. Captain Jameson last ran here a year ago on the same ground beaten 1 length off a mark 9lb higher than he is today. If he can reproduce that there will be no stopping him today.
She won two class one races in July in Ireland including the Irish Oaks. They went too fast for her at Longchamp in her latest start and could only manage sixth place. However, if this race is run to suit her she will be in the mix at the finish.
Nazeef EW 11/1 – 3.05 Ascot
She won well at Newmarket two weeks ago staying on well despite being slightly hampered two furlongs out. She looks to be in good form and seems to go well on soft ground. Has a good chance at a decent price. Could win but should at least be in the frame.
Addeybb EW 9/1 – 3.40 Ascot
Although Magical will be hard to beat here I think Addeybb may be the horse to do just that. He is actually rated higher than Magical and has finished in the first two in each of his last six races and won two group one races in Australia earlier in the year. Obviously in good form and will give Magical a race and could possibly win.
Week 2 – Saturday 10th October
Rain in the week will give a soft surface for this long, flat,crowded event. 34 runners gives a lot of data to plough through: Those that keep popping up in my ratings are, Mondain, Vis a Vis, Coltrane and Great White Shark. Mondain has placed on soft, good trainer stats and a mid-draw but maybe doesn’t fit with a big field. Vis a Vis placed at the distance, with big fields and may like the finish. Coltrane all of Class, Course, Trainer and Jockey fit well but the high draw is putting me off. Great White Shark has a mid-position draw which may just play to her experience of winning over similar and greater distances and field sizes.
York 15:45 Novice Stakes 7f Invincibly - Stake 1pt Win. 4/1
Three stand out for me from the nine runners: Baradar, Ballycommon and Invincibly. The first, down in class, with an in-form trainer puts him top of the ratings. Along with Ballycommon, they like the distance. But for me Invincibly has the advantage of an extra run at the distance. Couple that with an in-form jockey and his turn of speed and we may have his first win chalked up.
Newmarket 13:45 Stakes 1m 2f Babindi - Stake 0.5pt EW. 20/1
Two at the almost opposite end of the odds market attract me. The short one, Lone Eagle likes the ground, good in the weights and in-form Trainer Jockey. Next to him in the stalls is the other, Babindi not yet a winner but the places keep drawing me in. I had some luck with a high-priced selection that showed a turn of speed last week. So Babindi is my Each Way choice.
A prolific winner, with ten career successes so far over sprint trips, and six of those have come with soft in the going description so we know he will absolutely delish the conditions tomorrow. 4 times a course winner and twice a course and distance winner, all the boxes are ticked for another big run.
One Ruler 2:20 Newmarket 7/2
Form of his listed third place last time has been boosted with the winner and sixth place horses winning since, and the fifth was a close second in Friday’s Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes. There would be a question mark about soft ground as he hasn’t tackled that yet, but if he can handle it I think he has a strong chance here.
Cleonte 3:35 Newmarket EW 40/1
A class horse on his day having run some good races, most notably when second you Stradivarius in September last year over today’s trip. The ground was good to firm that day, and he hasn’t won on soft before, but he has run and finished second on both soft and heavy ground. Form has been nothing of that sort since but this could have been his season long target and I am happy to take an each way play on this one at a big price.
This one ticks lots of boxes. With the ground riding soft, or at least on the soft side of good, he will be in his element having won over 2.25 miles in the heavy at Chester and in June this year won The Ascot Stakes at Ascot. He is only 3lb higher than for that win - he will stay forever and will relish the ground.
Millisle- 4.15 pm Newmarket - 1 pt Win 11/4
This filly won The Cheveley Park here last year and Jessica Harrington wouldn’t be bringing her over to Newmarket again without believing she had a very good chance. They tried her over a mile in the 1,000 Guineas but she clearly didn’t stay and has reverted to Sprinting. She has won over course and distance and on the soft and will give a good account of herself here.
Zabeel Prince - 4.50 pm Newmarket - 1 pt win 12/1
This is a specialist distance at 9f and this horse has already won twice over the distance with one of those wins being in a Group 3 at Newmarket last Spring. I am not looking further than a course and distance winner who has won in this class and has won on soft going
Legal Attack overcame inexperience on debut at Newmarket beating a next-time-out winner. Improved on that effort when second in the Group 3 Prix Eclipse at Chantilly 3 weeks ago. More improvement likely and the Crisford stables are in good form at present.
GREAT WHITE SHARK (EW - 1/5 x 6 or 7 places) - 15:35 Newmarket 13/2
Seven of the last 14 Cesarewitch winners had won over hurdles and six of the winners since the turn of the century had been involved at that year’s Cheltenham Festival. 17 of the last 18 winners of the race had won a race over a trip of 2 miles or beyond whatever code of racing. In the last 18 running's, just one winner started the race in a stall higher than 25, so that makes life difficult to those drawn in the highest quarter (stalls 25-36) and that includes two at the head of the market Coltrane (drawn 34) and Leoncavallo (drawn 29). Willie Mullins has won the last two running's of this event which included a 1-2 last year. This time around he sends over the mare Great White Shark who flopped in this last year but had come in for strong market support (7/1). Last seen 71 days ago winning an 18-runner handicap hurdle over just shy of 3m on soft ground. That was off the back of running four days earlier on the flat, finishing 2 1/2 length 7th behind Princess Zoe having finished well over 17f. The winner has since won the Group 1 Prix du Cadran last weekend. Prior to that outing she last raced at the Cheltenham festival in the Martin Pipe finishing third. Rated 144 over hurdles, 60lb above her flat mark, allowing for the standard additional 45lb flat to hurdles, her present mark of 86 could well equate to being a stone 'well-in'. She has shown that she handles racing in large fields, has winning form on testing ground. Despite being around the 8/1 mark in a field of 34 runners, some would say that's not value, I'd disagree as Great White Shark has many positives and she does look likely to go very close in this, she'll be primed to the minute by Mullins who has shown he knows what it takes to win this race.
HIGHEST GROUND - 16:50 Newmarket 2/1
Twice successful, Highest Ground lost his unbeaten status last time out losing by a head in the Dante while still appearing to have some greeness. Sir Michael Stoute's Frankel colt remains open to further improvement and he can land this on his way to better things as a 4 y-old.
Trained in Ireland by Jessica Harrington. Jockey S.Foley has a 15% strike rate for Mrs.Harrington. Jockey has a decent record at the course,with two wins and three places from 12 rides. This 5 year old is a dual purpose horse and has three wins and eight places in 22 runs on turf. A course winner,and has two wins from three runs on similar ground. Had a prep run in a Novice Hurdle at Listowel,finishing second of six. Horse has a habit of finishing down the field after having had a break of two months or more. Looks weighted to run a big race.
Chepstow 2.47. BALLYOPTIC win. 7/1
Trained by Nigel Twiston Davies and has Sam T-D in the saddle. Jockey has a five wins from only ten rides on this horse. Won this race last year and runs off the same weight this time. Consistent type who has won five and placed once in 15 Chases. Last ran in February in a three mile Listed Handicap Chase at Ascot. Won the race comfortably,staying on strongly. Likes to be up with the pace from the early stages of a race. Two wins from four in Class 2 ,and six wins at the distance. Fitted with a tongue strap,and has a three wins from nine runs with the strap fitted. Goes well fresh,and has four wins from six after a break of eight weeks or more.
Chepstow 4.32. THE BAY BIRCH each way. 3/1
Bred for chasing being by Beneficial. Trainer has a decent record with his horses sent chasing. Jockey Stan Shepard has a 30% strike on board the mare. Had a good prep run last time out,at Warwick when finishing third. That came after a 6 month break. Won this race last year,and carries 2 lbs less. Jumped well and stayed on strongly. One win and a place from two runs over course and distance. In Class 2 races has a won two,placed two from 6 races. Acts on the forecast going,and looks a genuine contender.
Willie Mullins looking for a hat trick in this race having won it in the two previous years and it’s interesting he’s got last years winning jockey with Jason Watson on board. Ran well enough last year when Unshipping the jockey before the race to finish 10th running on late in the race through beaten horses. Won well last time out in a big Galway hurdle race which I hope it’s primed him up for this race. Mullins only runner in this race which is a interesting sign has he normally has a few. Only he doesn’t get too far behind and Watson can guide him home first.
322 Chepstow novice listed chase Tip : Fusil Raffles 11/10
Perfect chase debut last time but did get a little flat footed before 3 out before finishing strongly before the last. Rattled up a hat trick of wins early last season before two disappointing runs after but they were in big hurdle races at kempton and Cheltenham. Hopefully the longer distance will suit it seemed to be last time out when staying on best on a hot novice chase. Ground will suit and won’t mind it getting softer. Has only beaten grand sancy last season so I would hope he’d still have the measure over that rival.
310 York coral sprint trophy Tip: Kynren 12/1
Ran really well last time out to finish 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup when racing on the wrong side, on his first time over 6f. Draw could have been worse and he’s drawn with the likely front runners so in theory he should get a good toe into the race. Hoping he’s settled just off the pace and pounces late and fast. Has a good record on going described as soft. I also like horses running 2nd time out after a wind op and he has the joint highest rating in the race with a good jockey claiming 5lb. Think he’s in with a major shout this weekend.
I have had my eye on this horse since his second at Auteil in March. On that occassion he raced wide and covered a lot more ground than most of the runners, but he was still travelling well into the straight and kept the winner up to his work on the run in, showing a very good attitude. What is interesting is the yard has acquired both this horse and the winner of the race.
14.47 Chepstow - POTTERMAN 9/2
The ground seems to have come right for the horse and Saturday looks dry so there should be no issues ground wise. I have his prime conditions as - good ground, 11 runners or less when racing in May to October. Under these conditions his record reads : 1111131121. His last win at Market Rasen has been franked with the second and third winning on their next run
15.35 Newmarket - LYNWOOD GOLD (EW) 14/1
The horse has been in decent form and his third behind Princess Zoe caught my eye as that horse went on to win the Prix Cadran at the Arc meeting. That run was over an inadequate 1m4f trip and I feel that this trip will be ideal today. The soft ground will not hinder his chances either.
I think this one has ben laid our for this race by his very shrewd trainer, he’s a classy individual who was 4th in this race last year off a slightly lower mark, but in this case this season he is a fresh horse with only the one run at Pontefract where he hacked up, is well drawn here as history says its normally low to middle numbers that win this cavalry charge ,he will be held up with a late run in mind and Graham Lee is a fine exponent of that art.
420 York The Jam Man 1pt win. 15/8
This one ran in Ireland last Sunday and went straight into my notebook as a next time out winner, although I wasn’t expecting him too come across to York. His trainer is more than capable of landing a touch and does send a few over but mainly Perth and Ayr. Going back to the race he ran last Sunday I was pretty sure there was more left in the tank and his rider was not overly tough on him once he realised he wasn’t going to catch the leader, pretty confident he can win this.
357 Chepstow Fix Sun 0.5pts ew 8/1
A chance is taken on this one has he is a relatively unexposed one, who has too say the least looks like has been kept under the radar by Nicky Henderson. Has won two small races but then was beat at long odds on in his last race. Has now been given a wind op and really thrown in at the deep end here ,I think Jacob will sit as quiet as a church mouse on him and will pounce very late on him, will handle the ground and surely looks a good ew bet at the price on offer at time of writing.
2:47 Chepstow >> BOLDMERE WIN 9/2 Caroline Bailey has started the season with a bang and is currently running at 33% win ratio in the last 14 days improving to 100% with Richard Johnson Booked. .Last time out looked to be making it another win but fell at the last when 5/2 fav in the group 2 William Hill Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby over 3m(soft) in a grade 2 chase.I really like the chances of this horse winning today.
4:15 Newmarket >> MILLISLE WIN 11/4 .After a frustrating season finally won the Ballyogan Stakes at Naas then ran a real shocker when well fancied 3 weeks later in the Phoenix sprint stakes.I am very confident that today we will see the real MILLISLE and if on song fully expect this horse to trounce this field.We will know our fate early on as likes to be up with the pace.This would be my best selection of the day and so rates as my NAP selection. Good luck if you follow :)
In a wide open race Mondain arrives in peak form and has looked a stayer of great potential this season. Last time he trounced the opposition at Ayr and is officially 3lb “well in” here. Ground and trip look fine and he shouldn’t race too far off the pace which is always a good thing at Newmarket.
1.45 Newmarket - Recovery Run 11/2
A race that looks sure to be run at a decent gallop and as a result will be a war of attrition for these 2yos. Recovery Run showed last time that such a test is right up his street. This colt by Nathaniel stays really well and his experience and toughness are expected to help him see off some unexposed sexier types.
1.25 Hexham - Nortonthorpelegend 4/1
Nottonthorpelegend represents the bang in form Rebecca Menzies yard and looks to hold a big chance here. He’s got two recent C&D runs to his name which have just looked like they’ve been needed. The softer ground, drop in the weights, and his stables form all mean he’s the one to be on now.
Has been off the boil last 2 starts but has a good comeback win this summer in the curragh, and has won over 2m4f over hurdles before that, meaning he should have no issue with the distance. Dermot Weld souls have him in gear for this and hopefully can put up a good showing
Cadillac 2.55 Newmarket e/w 17/2
Very easy victory in a maiden on debut with the 2nd place winning twice since. Beaten half a length on next race by a horse with a group 1 entry and resumed winning ways last time out. Harrington had had a couple of winners recently and foley in good form so expecting a bold run.
Faerie Laws 4.05 Limerick e/w 25/1
But of a flyer here not much recent form and only recent win coming over much shorter, 7f.however had shaped decently on first early hurdle starts this summer without getting the distance. Hoping a couple weeks break and a shorter distance will see in better shape and it with a shout
3.35 Newmarket - LYNWOOD GOLD (0.5pt ew) 14/1 - An interesting Irish-raider for Jessica Harrington who has ran well on three separate occasions so far this season, winning a Curragh handicap over 1m6f and is only 3lb higher here. He was third just before that over 2m at the same track and the form of his third on penultimate start is starting to look very nice as the winner Princess Zoe has since won at listed level as well as a Group 1 at Longchamp last weekend.He’ll like the soft ground and if seeing the trip out then he’ could well be a player with Shane Foley back in the saddle. Plenty of extra each-way spots if you shop around, I’ll be going with seven places at Paddy Power.
4.32 Chepstow - SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (1pt win) 4/1 - This eight-year old was unlucky last season is some of the big handicaps across the Cheltenham season. He was beaten a head in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup off 146 before being beaten half-a-length on trials day off 149 and off the same mark finished a respectable sixth in the Grade 3 Brown Advisory (all over the extended 2m4f on soft ground). He returns to action off a pound lower mark and can go well fresh having won on this card back in 2018 by six-lengths on chasing debut, Dan Skelton has his horses in decent enough form with a winner here on Friday and I’d expect this gelding to go close if completely revved up on return to the course, he deserves to win one of these.
This is the race in which we all have to make a selection. 34 runner handicap is a tipster's nightmare, but at least most bookies are paying ew 6 places for the ew punters. I have tried to find reasons to take on the first three in the betting in this race. Great White Shark winning will give Willie Mullins a three timer , having won with Stratum last year, and with Low Sun in 2018. A tall order, but not impossible. Leoncavallo & Coltrane are drawn in stalls 29 & 34 respectively. Only one winner drawn higher than 25 in the last 20 years. In addition, Coltrane is a 3 year old, and only one of his age group have won in the last 20 years. In the last 20 runnings, only 5 winners have carried more than 9st 2lbs, so I discard Not So Sleepy who carries 9st 4lbs and is currently fourth in the betting. I think Jessica Harrington has laid Lynwood Gold out for this race some time ago. Soft ground, or even on the heavy side, will suit this 5 yr old. He won over 2 miles over Hurdles at Navan last March on heavy ground, and won the Irish Ebor trial over 1m 6f at the Curragh in July. In August he finished 6 l behind Princess Zoe at Galway over 1m 6f on soft giving her 8 lbs. This now looks pretty strong form as Zoe now has a rating of 109 . His recent run was over hurdles at Listowel two weeks ago on soft ground. Finished a well beaten second of six runners , but that was over 2m 4f, and should have put him spot on for this race. Great chance carrying 8st 11lbs and stable jockey , Shane Foley, comes over for the ride ( also takes the ride for the stable on Cadillac in the Dewhurst at 2.55 )
Chepstow 2.12 Handicap Hurdle Class 2 over 2 miles RIVER BRAY 1 pt Win 10/1
This 7 year old has tonnes of ability, but has been troubled with breathing problems throughout his career. Had his first wind op in April 2018, followed by a further op in November of the same year. This is his first race since his most recent wind operation which he had just 6 weeks ago.He came out and won after his last op, winning at Wincanton in February 2019, making all and winning unchallenged over 2 miles. He wore Cheek pieces for the first time on his last run at Stratford last March when he ran a sound race finishing second of 13 in a class 3 handicap over the extended two miles. He has always needed a tongue tie. He finished a remote 6th in this race last year when clearly suffering from breathing problems, as he led until 2 out and then stopped as if shot. This is his first run after his recent wind op, and he retains the cheek pieces that seemed to improve his run last time out. I am hoping he can run a big race carrying just 10st 11lbs and racing off a mark 6 lbs below his last winning mark. A big ask of course, but no doubting he has the ability to win this if the wind op and cheek pieces do their job. Stable ran Dancing Shadow in Veteran's Race at Chepstow this afternoon ( Friday) Made every yard but nabbed on line to be beaten 2 noses into third. So some form from the stable, and they may try front running tactics with River Bray tomorrow ( worked the oracle at Wincanton )
Chepstow 3.57 Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f SIR PSYCHO 1 pt Win 7/1
To say Paul Nicholls loves Chepstow would be an under statement. ! He is the top trainer here over the last 5 years with 29% of his runners winning and 65% of runners finishing in the frame. He has had four winners there today ! ( Friday) It is interesting to note that Paul also has Saint Sonnet in the race shouldering top weight. I suspect his future may be over fences, but of more interest is the fact that he has got Bryan Carver riding Sir Psycho claiming an invaluable 5 lbs ! Bryan has already won 35 races under rules ( 7 this season ) and is a young jockey destined to be amongst the top dozen riders. He rode a brilliant race from the front on From the Heart to win the last at Chepstow this afternoon( Friday) This 4 year old has won 3 of his 6 hurdle starts, including winning a 12 runner novice hurdle at Exeter on New Year's Day by 31 lengths !. Will certainly get 2m 3f at Chepstow after this performance at Exeter over 2m 1f. Followed up by easily winning a six runner class 2 juvenile hurdle at Haydock on heavy ground. His last run was arguably his best, at the Festival last March, when beaten 4 lengths finishing fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. Has a great chance this afternoon off a mark of 147
Has form figures of 2111 at 2m-2m1f, in the book so the stamina test holds plenty of appeal. Made the most of a good opportunity at Ayr last month, landing a 2m1½f handicap by 5 and a half lengths to extend unbeaten record over 2m or further anr has form figures of 2111 at 2m-2m1f, so the stamina test holds plenty of appeal
15.10 york MR LUPTON EW 11/1
. MR LUPTON, a winner at the Curragh on his penultimate start, can continue his fine form in big handicaps and can go well once more scoring at the Curragh before third of 24 in Ayr Gold Cup 21 days ago, despite missing break He is a . C&D winner here too so he's firmly in the mix despite his 2 lb rise MR LUPTON, , can continue with his fine form.
14.35 YORK GLASSES UP EW 25/1
Glasses up is an Ayr specialist who hasn proved at least as good as ever when fourth in a competitive C&D handicap last month. Remained in form since and consistency is hard to knock but that now puts him career-high mark the trainer has a 23 percent strike rate over the last 14 days
Summer Moon bounced back to form at York over an extended two miles back in August when winning a similar class two handicap. He races just off a four-pound higher mark this afternoon. Despite taking a keen hold and lugging left under Joe Fanning, the four-year-old headed Rajinsky in the closing stages to win by around three quarters of a length. The further they went that day, the better he looked and having been placed in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles back in June, there is every reason to believe he will appreciate this step up in trip. Mark Johnston has won this race twice before with Scatter Dice (2013) and Contact Dancer (2004). Despite the burden of top weight, he may well just be coming to the boil at the right time and he commands respect under his evergreen jockey.
2-55 Newmarket POETIC FLARE (0.5PT E/W) 28/1
Poetic Flare could do no more than win like he did when beating Lipizzaner back in March over five furlongs at Naas. He will absolutely relish the underfoot conditions on offer this afternoon. The yard have won this race five times since 2006 including with Poetic Flares’ sire Dawn Approach. They have taken an identical path with their contender this year and despite not having the ammunition of old, Jim Bolger is still well capable of upsetting many an applecart. Kevin Manning takes the ride yet again and it would be foolish to write him off despite being considered a complete outsider given his breeding. Plenty of his rivals have endured a long tough season and he may well take full advantage of that.
2-12 Chepstow FRIEND OR FOE (1PT WIN) 9/4
Friend Or Foe makes his handicap debut for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden this afternoon and sneaks in at the foot of the handicap. He has proven that he can go well fresh in the past so a lay off of almost six hundred days is only a minor concern. The yard have hit the ground running so far this season and having won over the course and distance on his previous start, Friend Or Foe can certainly make his presence known off such a light weight here. This race looks a sensible starting off point and he will progress as the year goes on.
I was looking for a National Hunt trainer to follow on with their good run in this race. Alan King having won this race in 2015 seemed a good choice, my only concern is that he is drawn high, but a place does not seem outside of his scope as a minimum. The ground will suit and stamina will not be a problem.
Fairyhouse 5.35 Quite Incredible 1pt win 9/2
Back to the National Hunt flat and following a trainer with an outstanding record in this type of race and a jockey who is riding well at the moment. He has already had a respectable third in this sphere and that bit of experience might give him the edge over the fancied Gordon Elliot runner.
Chelmsford 8.30 Sheila 1pt win. 15/8
Following on from her win at the second time of asking in a handicap, I don't feel the 6lb penalty will be enough to stop her coming home in easy style this time round either. Her win was over course and distance, so there will be no uncertainties for her here. If I had a NAP this would be it.
Lottery of a race. As Willie Mullins has farmed this race lately, it's obvious to start with his runner. Maybe a Galway specialist but last year winning combination Mullins & Jason Watson from the same stall 20 might be more than coincidence.
Sir Psycho 15:57 Chepstow 7/1
With the Nicholls team in flying form, this 4YO gelding who finished fifth in the Triumph should enjoy the step up in trip. With 5lb claimer Bryan Carver in the saddle, reuniting their partnership with a previous romp at Exeter.
Rockesbury 19:30 Chelmsford 15/2
If this Phil McEntee, who's becoming a Chelmsford specialist, can get on the pace early from stall 9 then there is every chance with Luke Morris in the saddle (2 from 2 on his back) can take this with his mid-pace.
This 8 yo gelding horse trained by h Morrison last out 14 days ago at a lower price than it is today and has won 4 times out of the 12 on the flat can today make it a 5th win? Worth an ew way bet, comfortable win at Pontefract 1m 4 f hcp.let's see if not so sleepy is wide awake for this race and win on to victory.
3;10 YORK CAME FROM THE DARK 1/2PT EW 12/1
This 4 yo grey colt trained by Ed Walker won last time on the flat at 3/1 now gone up to 8/1 is shows promise and won at the same weight has its running today can this horse come out of the dark and run on to victory.
1;45 NEWMARKET RECOVERY RUN 1PT WIN 11/2
This 2yo bay colt trained by A M Balding won last time out with 7 runners in the race, This horse loves the flat, and with 1 extra runner this horse could do well again won at ayr at 1m so will recovery run ride again to victory form shows he can.
Great White Shark wasted energy by running loose on the way to post before enduring quite a rough race in this contest last year so his 10th placed finish should not be judged too harshly. He was sent off 7/1 last year and is a similar price a year on, but there's evidence to suggest he is an improved animal now. He was a fine third in the Martin Pipe in March off 136 & then won a Galway hurdle handicap off 135 in July. Between those two runs he ran an eye-catching race on the flat at Galway under a 7lb apprentice, coming very wide into the home bend. Rated 145 over hurdles now, a mark of 86 on the flat looks appealing and he is trained by the right man in Willie Mullins who has sent out the last two winners of this famous race. Some well fancied three-year-olds such as Ranch Hand & Southern France have not performed to market expectations in recent renewals so that would be a negative for Coltrane. Rock Eagle has stamina to prove and encounters soft ground for the first time, while Mondain, who won impressively last time out, needs to prove he can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap. I liked the chances of Smart Champion who has shaped repeatedly like a horse capable of landing such a prize, but the ground also looks to have gone against him. Leoncavallo is a horse with a similar profile to Great White Shark and rates the chief danger.
19:00 Chelmsford – Dulas Win 4/1
This looks a tricky handicap sprint but Dulas looks a well handicapped horse off 83 and he should be capitalising off this mark soon enough. He made his debut at Newmarket last year finishing 6th/14 behind the likes Al Suhail (now 113), First Receiver (now 108) and Tsar (now 103). He recorded his first win in December last year when making all at Newcastle, finishing over two lengths clear of Nehaall, now 86 rated and five lengths clear of the 3rd Glen Force, now 89 rated. Dulas was next seen when sent off the warm 5/2f fav on handicap debut at Doncaster but he was far too keen and failed to see out the 7f. He shaped with more promise on his latest start at Newmarket travelling strongly before not getting the best run back over 6f. He may not be the easiest horse to train and does not look an easy ride, but he has a nice draw so hopefully Shoemark can get him settled.
20:00 Chelmsford – Power Of States Win 7/2
Power Of States has ran at Chelmsford twice, recording a victory and a second. The win came on debut back in October 2018 (RPR of 80) while the 2nd, beaten a short head, came in handicap company last September off a mark of 76 (RPR 83). That race was won in a good time and worked out reasonably well with the 3rd winning three races subsequently and the 4th winning twice since. Power of States was a good third at Doncaster in July behind Mankayan (since 2nd three times, now 90 rated) & dual subsequently winner Heart Of Soul. He then finished 4th in a strong class three handicap at Ascot, won by the now 99 rated Look Closely. He was denied a clear run at Chester on his penultimate run and was left with too much to do at Lingfield latest. He has dropped to a handy mark of 74, Hollie Doyle is booked, and a visor replaces his regular blinkers so he should be going well.
Darley Dewhurst stakes over the straight Rowley Newmarket course will suit this Wooton Bassett colt perfectly. Impressive in its last victory at Doncaster over 7f, the horse showed its battling qualities and deserves its rating of 115. only one horse rated higher in this race and all racing off 9-1. Richard Hanson’s horse can show its class and land this valuable price.
DALTON HIGHWAY - 15.35 NEWMARKET - 0.5 Point Each Way 25/1
Trained by the Irish Maestro Dermot Weld and ridden by one of my system jockeys Tom Marquand, this horse will go very close to landing this famous second leg of the autumn double. His win at the Curragh over two miles shows he will stay this trip although raised for that victory he has had this race in mind and will be cherry ripe for the day. Let’s hope he can win this prize as DALTON HIGHWAY used to be ridden by the late great PAT SMULLEN.
DROP KICK MURPHI - 16.08 CHELMSFORD CITY - 0.5 Point Each Way 16/1
I have been following this horse and today he has his best chance and could be last chance saloon. Off just 46 today and second lowest weight ( despite a 1lb out the handicap which goes against the grain ), today might well be the day at a price as well. The trainer had a double at Southwell on Thursday night and she loves having runners at the Essex Track.
Won well at Chester in August over just short of 2 miles. That was on good to soft ground and he was full of running coming home so the extra 2 furlongs should be no problem here. Followed up with a 5th of 17 over 1 mile 6 at Haydock but he seems to need further.
Summerghand – 1.00 York 9/2
Won the Stewards Cup in August and has run quite well 3 times since including 3rd place at the Curragh two weeks ago. That was on yielding ground so if the going is soft then he should have no problem with that. With a clear run he should go close again here.
Mr Lupton EW - 3.10 York 11/1
Finished 3rd in Ayr Gold Cup three weeks ago after missing the break which followed a win at the Curragh just a week earlier and another at Ripon in August. The rest will have recharged the batteries and should go well again despite going up 2 lbs in the weights.
34 runners over 2m2f at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course, it doesn’t get much more difficult than that to pick a winner does it!? Having the winner of this race hasn’t been difficult for Irish National Hunt’s main man Willie Mullins in the last couple of years and the fact he only runs one today must speak volumes. This mare is not a left field choice but GREAT WHITE SHARK has the credentials to complete the hat-trick for Mullins here. There are no draw issues, no stamina doubts and no recent form worries. She ran a blinder at the Cheltenham Festival to finish 3rd, this was followed by an unlucky 7th on the flat at Galway (she had a very wide trip under her inexperienced rider) and just four days later she won nicely over hurdles, again at Galway. She is 3lb lower than her 10th place finish in this race last year where she was shuffled back in the pack before running on all too late, which would indicate she is well handicapped. Great White Shark has everything in her favour to run a blinder here and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t go very close.
Hexham 12:25 Selection – THE FERRY MASTER 1pt WIN. 13/2
The selection here is THE FERRY MASTER for trainer Sandy Thomson and jockey Ryan Mania. These two are a highly underrated duo when teaming up, especially with chasers. This horse managed to win a maiden hurdle in the stewards room last season but chasing was always going to be his game and he will have been properly schooled during his 209 days off the track. Thomson boasts a 25% strike rate with chasers off the track for 121-365 days over the past 5 years so the layoff is of no concern. Thomson can also boast a 29% strike rate with his chasers in October over the last five years. The fact connections threw this horse into a grade 2 on only his third start under rules surely means they hold him in high regard and he could well be a bit better than a class 4 handicap chaser in time.
Chelmsford 20:30 Selection – SHEILA 1pt WIN 15/8
The selection here is SHEILA who won takingly on all weather handicap debut last month and a 6lb rise shouldn’t stop her going very close again. With Chelmsford reportedly riding slow on Thursday, it may pay to be up with the speed, so it’s encouraging that Sheila was handily placed last time behind the leader, who she picked up with ease in the straight. Being by Australia, she is likely to stay even further in time so if it becomes hard work on the slow surface, stamina is assured. Her trainer Hugo Palmer has a 20% strike rate at Chelmsford over the last year, and her jockey Jason Hart 21%, to add further confidence.
This ex Mark Johnston horse has all the credentials to run a big race here. He’s been placed 4 out of 5 times on the soft and has one win from two runs on the track. Harrington horses are starting to come good but, a huge field so we’ll need some luck in running.
2:35Y chatez 1pt win 20/1
Ran a great race when finishing 5th beaten just under 3 lengths last time out finishing the race off well. At 9 years old he’s not getting any younger but he’s 9lb below his last winning mark and he’ll be winning again soon.
3:10Y Recon mission 1pt win 12/1
Won off 97 last year when making all from the front here at York. Hopefully he can ping out the stalls today off a mark of 92. Harry Russell will be taking off another valuable 5lb. I’d fancy him more if the rain stays away. At a decent price he’s worth a bet.
145 - Lone Eagle 7/2 win bet. Like how Martin Meade has brought this one along slowly, won his last two races, steps up in trip at a stiff track but I think the further he goes he’ll be hard to pass.
255 - Alkumait 9/1 ew. The fact Jim Crowley has jumped off albasheer who he rates very highly to be on Alkumait is hugely telling, if the horse lasts the trip I think he could be better than the front two and win this
Week 1 – Saturday 3rd October
Michael Dod’s talented sprinter has returned as good as ever this year. HE is trying to repeat his win in this race from last year and he actually races off a one pound lower mark today. He bumped into a solid improver in Starman at York a couple of starts ago and then probably ran too quickly when finishing third at Doncaster next time. He has had a month to recuperate and with the soft ground likely to be very much in his favour, he has to have every chance of retaining his crown this afternoon.
3-05 ACOT ROPEY GUEST
Finally got his head in front with a confidence boosting win at Chelmsford last time where he was sent off at prohibitive odds. He was placed in a couple of Group Three races at Newmarket last season including when a solid third to Military March in the Dubai Autumn Stakes. He is still relatively lightly raced and there should be better to come from George Margarson’s three-year-old. Soft ground out to hold no barriers for him and there is every reason to expect a decent run.
3-24 FONTWELL HIJACK 7/2
Hijack was good enough to win back to back novice hurdles over two miles at Ludlow last year. He was allowed to race prominently on both occasions before asserting on the run in on both occasions. Nico De Boinville rode him to victory when he last won and it is a positive sign to see him back on board this afternoon. He is Nicky Henderson’s sole runner on the card and on what is his handicap debut, he has to be feared now that he has had a summer to strengthen up. Racing in the familiar colours of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, another bold bid is expected.
An ultra competitive handicap but Kynren Last year's winner arrives on the back of a good fifth in Ayr Gold Cup 14 days ago when he raced closer to pace than ideal. Can make his presence felt again on second run back since wind op also a positive is to have course form plus the trainer won this race last year
ASCOT 13.55 Dakota Gold WIN
Dakota Gold Has been keeping very busy after re-finding his form at Beverley on soft ground and it looked to have taken the edge of him last time at Doncaster, though he did battle on well as usual. Dakota Gold won this race on soft ground last year and the rain has come for him again now. A stiff 5 furlongs is fine for Dakota Gold as he stays 6 and likes to bowl along up front. His highest of all draw in stall 14
NEWMARKET 13.40 Gift List WIN 7/1
Has followed debut near miss with victories in 7f minor events at Newcastle and Redcar. Gift List likes to bowl along near the speed and she has already shown that she stays 7 furlongs and that soft ground is no issue. She really put her head down in taking fashion to defy a penalty last time. She looks sure to give this a good bash from near the front.
With heavy rain forecast overnight and throughout Saturday morning, the straight 7 furlongs at Ascot will take all the getting and is unlikely to suit front runners. You need courage to back Blown By Wind that's for sure, as he is making a habit of leaving the stalls very slowly and losing several lengths at the start. Clearly he needs to have everything falling in place for him to win here, but he has a lot going for him this afternoon. He is a Course winner, and has won over 7 furlongs. Only 2 lbs higher than his last winning mark when winning at headquarters back in June, but 5 lbs lower than the mark he raced off when second at the same course three weeks later. He is drawn in stall 9 and the middle stalls could be the right place in the prevailing conditions. Won on heavy ground as a 2 year old so conditions should not be a problem. Already had 25 races and is only a 4 year old so he is pretty streetwise. As long as he gets out of the stalls Ok, he can run a big race at a big price.
2.19 Fontwell Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle Class 5 over 3m 2f GOOD NEWS 1 pt win 15/2
Fontwell Park is scheduled to get plenty of rain just like Ascot, so this marathon trip will be a real test. This 8 year old has bags of course experience having run here on nine occasions. Won successive races here last Autumn over 2m 5f , significantly both were run on soft ground. He races off a mark 5lbs higher than his last winning mark,but has the excellent Rex Dingle on board once again. Good News will be better suited to the underfoot conditions than most of his rivals. He will be wearing cheek pieces for the first time, which could help him see out the extended trip of 3m 2f.
3.29 Fontwell Handicap Hurdle Class 2 over 2m 3f MISS TYNTE 1 pt win 25/1
David Pipe has his yard in good form and this 8 year old mare is well worth an interest having had wind surgery a couple of months ago. One can never be sure if they will improve following the operation, but if it has the desired effect she has a decent chance. She had a similar wind op in May 2019, and then came out and won by 14 lengths ! Has won on soft ground, but has been running over longer trips. Back to 2m3f could help her run a big race from the bottom of the handicap. All three selections should handle the prevailing conditions and are tipped to win. You may wish to back them each way. In any event, good luck and enjoy your racing
From the moment I saw the racecard, Raising Sand has been jumping out of the page at me, so rightly or wrongly I have been looking for reasons to select him. He has been given a high draw which can only be beneficial as there is a slight bias towards this and while Jamie's strike rate is only 5% in the last fortnight, Saffie's is 29%. He is also a multiple course and distance winner, including winning this race.
Redcar 4.35 No 10 - Hot Summer 0.5 pt e.w 25/1
If the forecast is correct for tomorrow and the going doesn't change too much, then Hot Summer should be able to put his best foot forward and take this race to his competitors, he likes to race near the front and I am hopeful that having won over this distance and on soft ground before, should be able to hold out come the final furlong.
Fontwell 5.40 No 8 Rebel Rebello 1pt win 5/2
I am a great fan of Paddy Brennan when he rides for Fergal O'Brien in bumpers and as there appears to be no stand out competition in the race, I am happy to take an educated punt on this one. He is the brother of a bumper and jumps winner, so hopefully he can carry on the family colours.
2.30 Ascot - HIGHLAND CHIEF (1pt win) - Logician on his best form should win this but with the ground going to be testing and the possibility of the ‘bounce factor’ I’m willing to take on the odds-on shot with Paul Cole’s three-year old. His colt won the Golden Gates Handicap at the royal meeting over 1m2f on soft ground when carrying top-weight and after a no show in the Derby he’s since posted a couple of solid efforts in defeat. He’s finished second in both Group 2 & 3 company over this 1m4f trip behind Mogul and Pyledriver and they’ve both come out and franked the form since. He’s 2/2 on soft ground and could be the one to upset the favourite.
3.05 Ascot - GREENSIDE (0.5pt each-way) - Tough handicap as usual but it’s last year’s second who, despite a nine-year old now, could outrun his odds. He was beaten half-a-length by the re-opposing Kynren off 7lb lower and he arrives here in good form having won on his penultimate start at Haydock (soft, 7f) before running to a similar level when third at York over 1m and a repeat of those runs should see him involved with him drawn nicely and has conditions to suit (two wins on soft), Marco Ghiani claims 5lb again. Ropey Guest was one I looked at but this opening mark might be beyond the three-year old though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go well. Each-way for first five places with most of the main bookmakers.
Watching the news and the weather forecasts I struggle to see the ground at Ascot for Saturday being Good to Soft. That takes a few of the runners out of the predication. Those showing up in several of my ratings are; Admiralty, Greenside, Shelir, Revich and River Nymph – Course, Distance and probably going wins add to the in-form Trainer and Jockey Stats. Combined with a higher draw, a good start hopefully flows through to a prominent position in the field and a good turn of speed on the finish. At the time of writing the available odds (7’s) and enhanced places (5 @1/5) make this a viable E/W bet.
Wolverhampton 16:50 1m 1f Handicap (Class6) - Tangramm - Stake 0.5pt EW (1pt) 16/1.
Looking over this race my eye kept getting drawn to 3 contenders with probable place capability and decent odds to follow: Puckle, Brutalab and Tangramm. The first has a good jockey on board, the second recent form and the latter likes the course. All have a good chance of getting in the frame but for me Tangramm offers the best value.
Wolverhampton 20:00 6f Handicap - Lucky Lodge - Stake 0.5pt EW (1pt) 11/2.
Staying with Wolvy, a 12 runner Class5 Handicap over 6 and a bit furlongs. Two selections for me fit the historical ratings for this course/distance/class combination: Chookie Dunedin and Lucky Lodge. Add in a Visor, an in-form Jockey and a quick return to the stalls and I think Lucky Lodge may just have the edge at the finish.
Returns to the scene of his greatest career win, which was this race last year. He is 4lb higher in the weights this time around, but is 3lb better off with his nearest rival last year Greenisde, and the pair were clear of the remainder. Of course a year has passed since that race and the competition will be different but the ground has come soft again which he will love. I also have concerns regarding other market principles like Raising Sand (loves the course but huge lack of runs in the past 12 months and doesn't go well fresh) and King Ottokar (Has raced exclusively over further than this since debut, winning over 3f further) so believe Kynren looks a good bet on second start after wind surgery.
Lezardrieux 8:00 Wolverhampton 9/1
Looks overpriced in this race to me, rock solid form of late. Won at Pontefract over 6f off 4lb lower, beating Penny Pot Lane, who I believe was well in off current mark, in a 0-72 Class 5 event. Has run once more since, at Pontefract over 5f, and finished second off 1lb lower than today's mark. That was a 0-85 Class 4 so today represents a nice drop back to class 5 for this 0-75 handicap and its a step back up to that winning 6f trip. The horse hasn't run at Wolves before, but has won 2 of his 4 starts on the AW and looks like there could still be mileage in this mark.
Peckinpah 8:30 Wolverhampton 11/2
The form of his July third place at Sandown is what made this one stand out to me, with the two who finished ahead of him winning a further 3 races between them since. It was a 0-70 Class 5 handicap and the winner that day was running off 70 and the runner up running off 66, with PECKINPAH running off 67. Jump forward to today and the winner has since won off 76 and was last seen on the flat running in a 0-105 class 2 handicap off 83 where he finished a respectable 4th of 8. The runner up won his next two starts of 70 and 73, and has since finished runner up again twice since off 78 and 79. So with the winner having been raised 13lb and the runner up having been raised 13lb, I can't wait to see Peckinpah run here off 69, just a 2lb higher mark. He was a very unfortunate loser of his only start since the Sandown race, when brought clear 2 furlongs out but just caught under the shadow of the post over 1m 6f. With that also in mind, todays drop back looks like it will suit.
Has a good record in Ascot, where most of career wins have come, including over course and distance. Recent reappearance not as bad as the 8 on the record looks. Was slowly away and may not have been benefited by racing on far side. Should be better after that and in with a good chance in a tricky race.
Estijmaam 2.35 Gowran E/w 10/1
Lightly raced, but has been in good form with a couple of very handy runs. While finishing a good few lengths behind Oscar Thybe and fakir d'alene in kilbeggan, I think at least one of them could end up winning bigger races throughout the year. Closer last time out on better ground in a handicap, going to get a bit closer today.
Put the kettle on 4.55 Gowran 5/2
Winner of the arkle at Cheltenham in March winning determinedly from Fakir Doudaries. Had run very well throughout the year before that and am expecting big things for the coming year potentially leading to racing in the champion chase. Henry de bromhead has targeted this race previously with horses to go onto the champion chase including with sizing Europe.
Off the track since an excellent second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita 11 months, Daahyeh has 8lb in hand on official ratings and her juvenile form is head and shoulders above her rivals. She showed she acts on this course when beating 24 rivals in the 2019 Albany. She narrowly went down to Love in the Moyglare before winning the Rockfel. None of her competitors can boost form of this quality. Daahyeh won on debut last season and then ran well against Love off a break so although this is her seasonal reappearance, it shouldn't be a negative.
Greenside (EW) 3:05 Ascot
Look for books offering 1/5 odds x 5 or 6 places. Past history shows that we should be looking at the forefront of the market and horses that have ran well in a previous Ascot handicap and finally we should be looking towards horses that are officially rated between 100-105. Mark Johnston has had just one placed in last 13 attempts and last time out winners haven't fared well. Greenside catches the eye from stall 17 although running from 16 given the non-runner. There's enough pace from those drawn high to drag Greenside into the race. I do feel high drawn horses are at an advantage here on going which will be riding on the soft side more than good-to-soft by Saturday afternoon given the amount of rain that is about. Greenside scored over 7f at Haydock on his penultimate start and was a staying on strongly inside final furlong last time out finishing third of 9 in handicap at York. Had a nice break of 90 days and has gone well fresh in the past. Second in this event last year to Kynren from a low draw (3) whilst the winner was drawn 17 of 17.
Cape Byron 3:40 Ascot
Cape Byron ran out a comfortablle 2 length winner of this event last year and looks set to repeat on a track that he has good overall form on. This will be his first run on the season but his 350 day absence from the track shouldn't be a hinderence as he won the Victoria Cup here on his 2019 reappearance.
Ropey Guest finally broke his maiden last time eased in grade and this highly tried colt looks primed for a big run here. This has been the aim for a while and with plenty of course form with cut in the ground he still represents a bit of value in a wide open race.
1.20 Ascot - Onassis
Onassis has done nothing wrong all season and remains a very progressive filly. After winning the Sandringham here at the start of the season she has held her own in Group company since, and now back at Ascot with cut in the ground her experience and toughness will see her go very close.
2.15 Redcar - Dragon Glass 14/1
Dragon Glass has caught the eye on more than one occasion this season, and is of definite interest here. Dropped in trip after travelling strongly over further last time, the handicapper has also dropped her a pounds. Connections believe soft ground will suit and from a lowly mark this unexposed filly should run a big race.
This very competitive 7 furlong handicap has possibly become a little easier to resolve since the rain has been falling most of Friday at Ascot and is forecast to rain there for the next 24 hours. The going at the end of racing on Friday was Soft and if the forecast is right it will be Very Soft, and probably Heavy by Saturday. There are a few horses that will be favoured by these conditions, and none more so than Blown By Wind. He won a Class 2 Handicap at Musselburgh on very soft going at this time last year and relishes a lot of cut in the ground, and is excellent value at the price. I fear that Kynren may run his usual sound race but I expect Blown By Wind to catch him in the last half furlong.
Morando – 2.30 Ascot
Can lightening strike twice? This lad hosed up by 6 lengths in this race last year and I think he may well do the same this. The obvious threat is Logician who may well continue his magnificent run, but is unproven on ground this soft. The only other threat is the 3 year old Highland Chief who won here over 10f as a 2 year old and has been backed overnight.
Dakota Gold – 1.55 Ascot
Having won this race last year, Dakota Gold has once again got his conditions. All his best runs come with give in the ground and he will enjoy this testing 5 furlongs and hopefully double up on last year. The main threat should come from Maid in India, who will also enjoy the conditions, but his Trainer is in dire form at the moment and I would not wish to chance my arm at the price.
Hold-up horse back over 7f who has shown he's ability to regularly get involved at the business end of the race. Enough pace on his side, (stablemate Shelir) on his side without having to switch low. Headway on bridle two out and challenge inside final furlong.
Champers Elysees 2:45 Newmarket 7/2
There are enough pace pushers to ensure an even gallop, which should suit the aforementioned, the main dangers are the classic winning milers but this exciting filly should enjoy the uphill finish and seal this with an authoritive win
Lawahed 4:30 Newmarket 9/2
Ran in blinkers for the first time when rushed into the lead early but never built on that lead and was swallowed up to finish near last at Sandown. Surprised connections reached for blinkers, as she's a pace pusher naturally. Should run her natural race stalking pace & pounce.
This 8-year-old bay gelding horse loves the turf runs better on turf and had more wins and places than the all-weather track, his weight has been up and down throughout his career but that won't stop him as he loves the ground, last ran in June with more runners than this race his last outing was 40/1.
4;04 Fontwell AWAY FOR SLATES EW 15/2
This 10-year-old gelding horse is a Three-time chase winner as novice but failed to add to tally last term, though took step back in right direction when third over course and distance on final start. Off 6 months. Came 3rd last time out at font well with a little push I feel this horse good do well today.
1;05 newmarket BOLSHOI BALLET WIN 7/2
This unraced bay gelding horse, I feel has potential to do well here last time out she was 33/1 and sadly pulled up in the race with the jockey Ryan Moore lasted race 14 days ago, I'm sure we can get this horse back to a winning form.
After spending some time looking at this race and with the ground conditions likely to be SOFT/HEAVY I have managed to get a short list down to 6 from the 18 strong field.This one will appreciate the ground more than most and was not knocked about on its last run.Hopefully the odds are decent and I think E/W is the safest option here,hopefully we might get double figure odds but we shall see.Dangers on this ground for me are last years winner for in form stable KYNREN and RAISING SAND ridden by the rising star SAFFIE OSBOURNE but overall I think the best bet is KING OTTOWAR E/W
2:30 Ascot >> MORANDO WIN BET.
With the ground soft/heavy I have been looking for confirmed mudlarks. Last years winner stands out and with the odds on fav being a huge question mark on this ground I am happy to chance this as looks to be the only one that fits the profile and ticks all the boxes for me. S DE SOUSA taking the ride for A BALDING is a plus.I think we can take on this odds on fav. All things considered I rate this horse my best chance of a winner on Saturday and therefore is my NAP selection.
8:00 Wolverhampton >> CHOOKIE DUNEDIN E/W BET 4/1
This is a horse I follow and he loves it here on the tapeta at Wolverhampton.He has been running well of late and can come with his late rattle right down the middle of the track here if fully recovered from his decent run at AYR just a few days ago.October is his month and his record at Wolverhampton is highly impressive.Taking a slight drop in grade I expect this horse to be arriving late on the scene and hopefully swoop late to victory but as an E/W bet I think is good value and hopefully we will get a decent price on the off..Good luck if you follow :)
Blown By Wind has some nice form in the book and I think he can hit the frame here at a price. The ground looks sure to be testing which should not be a problem for him, given he won on heavy on his debut and hacked up at Musselburgh on soft last October, beating the now 110 rated Montatham. On his reappearance in June he won a race at Newmarket that has worked out very well. He had Pogo now 112, Qaysar now 109 and Naharr now 107 all behind him and even the 5th and 6th have landed decent handicaps since. He has been inconsistent since but he ran a monster race off 107 at Newmarket in June when short of room and denied a run on at least two occasions and then at Chester in August he was noted travelling strongly and staying on stoutly. A slowly run contest did not suit on his penultimate run and his effort on all weather at Chelmsford last time out was fair. The return to turf should suit and providing he does not completely miss the break, he can be competitive off this mark of 101.
Venturous – 19:30 Wolverhampton 5/1
There looks to be an awful lot of pace on here with front runners Leodis Dream, Spirit of May, Walk on Walter, Full Authority and prominent racers Katheefa and Spanish Angel all declared. It could well set up for a closer and I like the claims of Venturous. He is a previous course and distance winner and has ran two very good races at the other tapeta track Newcastle this year. The first of those came when winning in good style off 87 in January and the other came in June when 2nd behind subsequent winner Caspian Prince off 89, doing best of those held up. He has shaped with a lot of promise in his last three runs. In the first of those he was an unlucky 6th at Thirsk in a race which has seen the 1st, 2nd and 3rd all win subsequently. At the same track next time he performed much better than his finishing position of 8th suggests as he never had much room and the jockey looked after him. His recent 3rd at Chester confirms that he is in good order and the switch back to tapeta in a strongly run race could see him land another deserved success of a sliding mark.
Barossa Red – 16:35 Redcar E/W 10/1
Barossa Red is a horse I have tracked for a while now and he should go well on ground set to suit on debut for Daniel and Claire Kubler. He won a very good race at Haydock last year on heavy ground beating dual subsequent winner House Of Kings. He ran very well on his next start when 2nd behind the well handicapped Time For A Toot as he had a very bad draw in stall 16 and suffered a wide trip throughout. The time compared favourably to the earlier listed race on the card, won by the now 119 rated Pyledriver. He has run very well on his last two starts, firstly when unlucky when denied a clear run behind Alternative Fact and then a good 3rd not beaten far by unexposed Confide. He has recorded RPR’s of 86, 89, 89 and 91 on his four runs on soft or heavy ground so there is plenty of evidence that a handicap of this nature on such ground will fall his way soon off a mark of 84. He could well get an easy lead here, which in the testing conditions could make him hard to pass.
First selection for the competition and I have been waiting for this lovely horse to run for ages. She went into my tracker on the second day of the resumption of racing, she raced up at Newcastle and came fourth although that does not tell the story as she was denied a clear run of several occasions, in the end Hayley Turner brought her down the stands side and flew home. We all say unlucky losers don’t win, well Berkshire Roco did this afternoon. Next time out at Newbury it was a weird race where the leader played the hare and it was catch up time and Harry Bentley couldn’t get first run on the winner, which wasn’tthe hare, an unlucky loser again. This Afternoon William Buick, who rides Newmarket better than anyone, takes over. The horse has won on soft ground and even with top weight has an outstanding chance of making her seasons form 421.
ORBAAN - 15.05 ASCOT - 1/2 POINT EACH WAY.
Pink and Blues colours, not my favourite Jockey who admitted to the “Boom “ man the other night that he only rides for his mates now. However I think the horse has a great chance on form having run well against the likes of Tempus and Montatham. Has won on soft when trained in France by a little known trainer A.Fabre. The price is decent and the hold up man JPS does win races at this course and the trainer is in superb form. I expect this horse to go very close, it all depends on............
SHARK TWO ONE - 15.25 REDCAR - 1/2 POINT EACH WAY. 8/1
I really like this horse and it will run a cracking race, will it win, I hope so however the horse is drawn 20/23 and the softer it gets at Redcar the more the draw can favour the low numbers, saying that I am a great believer of pace in a race out weighing draw bias. The horse has won a 20 runner race at the Curragh on soft, that was its last run, it is owned by The Blue and White striped cap man, trained by the Northern Mafia and ridden by the Managan christened that by the “Photo” King Thommo. Paul has come back better than ever from a bad injury and can take this prize of Fifty Six grand for the man that doesn’t need it. Everything is in this horses favour EXCEPT........ he might just win “ his side “ and not pick up the trophy - still each way at the price is value I reckon.
This one was second in this corresponding race last year going very close. He has been given a break by his shrewd trainer and I think with this race in mind. Will handle the forecast conditions as a lot of the wet stuff expected at Ascot .So with that in mind and looking on past history of race on these conditions a high draw number looks best ,he’s also well up in stats of the race placed last time out within 10lbs of top rated horse and has previous course form.
Champers Elysee 1pt win 245 Newmarket 7/2
I have followed this horse from last year starting at the Curragh, where she won and she has not looked back since. Will handle the forecast conditions and is Colin Keane only mount at the meeting. Stable continues to bang in the winners so no worries there. There was a strong draw bias here last Saturday so she drawn quite low so hopefully can get up stand side rail and use her explosive turn of foot.
Arecibo 0.5pts ew 415 Ascot.
I have backed this horse so many times that my wallet is crying with the pain of losing more money too this horse. This horse really needs everything to drop right as is a hold up merchant who comes very late and will need luck in running but I simply cant ignore. He ran well in Ayr Gold Cup 2 weeks ago again slow away but flying at finish ,will handle the conditions tomorrow bound to get a good pace to aim at and must go close ,his handicap mark is the lowest he has been for sometime which I think our enemy the bookies have noticed as he favourite at time of writing for this race.
Ran in five C1 races between September last year and July this year placing in four and was 4th in the other. Finally crossed the line first in a C5 race at Chelmsford when going off at 30/100 favourite and now running in a C2 race that should have given the confidence to win again here.
Billesdon Brook EW - 2.45 Newmarket 10/1
Won this last year off a mark of 106 at 16/1. Now rated 113 but has had two recent group races finishing 2nd on both occasions. Beaten a neck by Nazeef at Newmarket in July, with the 5/6 favourite back in 3rd. Then she let Maamora get too far ahead at Sandown in August and went down by ½ length towards the end of August. Looks in good shape to win this again this year.
My Oberon – 2.50 Redcar 2/1
Has only had four races so far and won lost his maiden tag in the 2nd one in a C5 race at York in July. Stepped up to race in two Group 3 races at the end of July and start of September. Finished a decent second in both. Khaloosy was the beaten favourite in both races and should finish behind him again.
Won this race last year and the rain seems to have arrived in time for him again as I do feel he is better on softer ground. Clearly in need of his first run of the season, he then weakened inside the final furlong over a mile. Having had a wind op his next run in Ayr Gold Cup over 6f was clearly better finishing well inside the final furlong. The step back up in trip today shoul be ideal.
15.29 Fontwell HANG IN THERE 5/1
This selection is from a system I created last year. The system looks at Miss E C Lavelle 6-y-o runners that are having their first run in a handicap having last time run in a Novice Hurdle. The horse must be running at Aintree, Doncaster, Exeter, Fontwell, Huntingdon, Ludlow and Wincanton. Under these conditions the trainer has a 47% strike rate and a profit of 34.25 points.
15.40 Ascot CAPE BYRON
The horse I have never felt was quite up to Group 1 company and this is more his grade. The horse runs well fresh and when racing 121 days or more after last race has a record of 141. The horse goes well on GTS and softer as a record of 111701 shows. The horse also seems to run really well at this track - 171110 and if we only look at runs at 6f below Group 1 it reads 11.
The sight of a huge field handicap on an Ascot racecard appeals to many as a solvable puzzle but how we go about doing this and ultimately picking the winner is one of horse racing’s trickiest conundrums. Whilst today’s race isn’t one of Ascot’s biggest handicap fields, we still have 17 runners. The ground is going to be very testing as it will be up and down the country this weekend. My selection is a horse who has placed three times when soft is in description and that horse is BLUE MIST, why?
- - He has won at Ascot twice over 7f and 1m.
- - He is drawn low, where he can track the likes of front runner Jack’s Point and prominent racer Kynren into the race.
- - His trainer Roger Charlton has an excellent record in 7f handicaps, with a 36% win rate in October over the last 5 years being a stand out stat.
- - This is an improving horse and a mark of 100 is not beyond him.
- - Many of the market principles don’t have age on their side. No horse aged 6 or over has won in the last 10 runnings – Blue Mist is 5.
With the ground guaranteed to play a part in all results on turf this weekend, I am playing it safe with two remaining selections on Wolverhampton’s tapeta surface. We begin with the class 6, 1m1f handicap, which in truth is weak to say the least however we know what we’re getting with a few runners in here. My selection is the consistent AMOR FATI who has been threatening to win round here in recent times. I like how Callum Shepherd who has had a terrific season takes over from a 7lb claimer for the ride, the horse is definitely well handicapped and he is sure to win again soon. Hopefully against this standard of opposition, it can be this race. Wolverhampton 20:00 Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap - DANA FOREVER 0.5 EW 14/1.
A slight rise in class for our next choice of race with this class 5, 6f contest. It is ultra-competitive and again I am going with a horse who has been threatening to win round here for a while now. DANA FOREVER is the selection for jockey Jane Elliott and trainer Tom Dascombe. Dascombe’s yard has been firing in the winners with a 21% win rate over the last 14 days. This horse has run five times at Wolverhampton and has a 100% place strike rate, with 1 ¾ lengths being the biggest distance she has been beaten. The filly clearly loves it here despite not winning yet and has every chance once again of breaking her duck today.
Clive cox’s three year old has shown huge improvement in his last two runs and I think he can continue his rise up the ratings with a bold showing here. Won easily enough over course & distance two runs ago then handled the soft next time out at Newmarket so won’t mind the rain that is forecast.
Newmarket 2:45 Champers Elysees 1pt win 7/2
Colin Keane over from Ireland for this one. Beat peaceful by just over a length last time out at Leopardstown and I can’t see Peaceful reversing the form. Gets the 3lb three year old allowance. She’ll be held up out the back so will come late to scoop another group 1.
Redcar 4:35 So Beloved 1pt win 20/1
This 10 year has been creeping down the weights. 29lb below his last winning mark although it was back in 2016 he’s been placed plenty times. This is his 1st run in a class 4 over a mile. Angus Villiers takes off 5lb and if they run the same race as they did the last time they paired up he’ll be bang there. Worth a bet at a big price.
Ran really well last time out to finish 5th in the Ayr Gold Cup when racing on the wrong side. I like horses running 2nd time out after a wind op and his 7f record is pretty good ( 5 runs 2 wins 2 places ) with a good jockey claiming 5lb. Think he’s in with a major shout this weekend.
Tip 2 140 Newmarket - Mighty Gurkha (win) 3/1
Completely the class act in the race winning a group 3 last time out and a overall rating of 104. Slight concern he’s never won turf but the soft ground could be a big advantage ( both wins on Aw being std-slow) he has been running in far better races than this and hopefully Hollie who can not be in better form can guide him home first.
Tip 3 110 Redcar - Selection Baradar (Win) 4/6
The only previous winner in the race and a grade dropper from his last run. Giving bundles of weight away would be a concern although finishing 4 out of 5 last time out he wasn’t beaten far in a race that is way better than this one and I would be really surprised if he’s beaten. Rossa Ryan back on and Varian has a good strike rate these last 14 days (22%).
Bay colt sired by Cable Bay. Trained by the in form Clive Cox and has Adam Kirby in the saddle. The jockey is two wins and two places from four rides on the horse. Trainer and jockey combination have a healthy strike rate when combining. River Nymph has had seven career runs,winning three and finishing in the places on three occasions. Has two victories from three runs at 7 furlongs. Goes well on the forecast softish going. Two wins and a place from only four runs on soft. Has won last two races,last time out at Newbury and prior to that over course and distance . Won both races with ease,and is clearly an improving type. Form of last win is working out well, with the second,third and seventh home all going on to win. Should be thereabouts at the business end again.
2.10 Newmarket. BE MORE each way 5/1.
Trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Oisin Murphy. Balding has a 23% strike rate at the course,and the jockey and trainer combining hold a 20% success rate overall. This 4 year old Shamardal filly has run a couple of mediocre races recently. Fifth last time out at Chester,after being slowly away. Lost all chance of getting into the shake up. Time before that finished fifth at Goodwood. Form from that race is working well with several runners going onto win since. Won three races last year,and got off to a win earlier this season,at Sandown. Ran on well inside the final furlong after not getting a clear run at the two furlong pole. Has a good record in Class 2 races. Two from four at this level. Loves soft ground. Three wins and a place from four outings on soft.
5.40 Fontwell REBEL REBELLO each way. 5/2
Trained by Fergal O’Brien and ridden by Paddy Brennan. Top trainer and jockey combo in National hunt racing. Trainer has a great strike rate in National Hunt Flat races, 29%. This unraced 4 year old chestnut gelding is well bred for the jumps game,being by Flemensfirth. Brother to a useful hurdler/chaser. Had wind surgery in August 2019,and wears a tongue strap in this race. Majority of field are making their racing debut, and those runners with previous experience do not appeal as potential winners. Has the potential to go on to bigger challenges in the future.
430 Newmarket - lawahed - 9/2 - William Haggas is a massive fan of this horse, won at haydock in the soft and I think will run a big race today with James Doyle on board. Replaced the blinkers with a a tongue tie and I’m willing to give him another chance.
Entries for Tip Idol 1 have now closed.
Thanks to everyone who submitted an entry. I received over 400 entrants and the 25 Tipsters have now been randomly chosen.
For those that have missed out this time, there will be another Tip Idol competition beginning late March 2021 and for those remaining on the list you will be given priority and first refusal for the next set of 25 tipsters.
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