The Flat season officially begins today (Yay!) with the Lincoln Handicap.
Traditionally a big betting race with some strong trends associated with it, the typical Lincoln winner looks a little like this....
TRENDS (since track renovation 2008 - 2019)
Every winner this century was aged 4-6yo
All of the last 12 winners had their last UK start in a class 2 or class 3 handicap
All of the last 12 winners were rated 90 - 104 and carried 9-04 or less (11/12 were rated 95+)
All of the last 12 winners had their last UK/Ireland start 120-240 days ago
All of the last 12 winners had won over 7f+
In the last 12 years, all 7 female runners have finished unplaced
8 of the last 12 winners had raced at least 13 times on the Flat (4 exceptions were lightly raced 4yo's)
3 of the last 12 winners had been running in Dubai that Winter
Just 1 winner this century has been ridden by a claiming jockey (3lbs) - 94 rides
All 30 horses wearing blinkers this century have been beaten
20 of the last 23 winners were Irish or GB Bred (3 exceptions all US Bred)
Over the last 12 years horses that had been running on the UK All Weather since Christmas (last 120 days) are 0 wins and 12 places from 90 runners
No horse since Babur in 1957/58 has won back-to-back Lincoln's
Since 2002, all 73 runners that had their last run at Wolverhampton have been beaten.
The last 6 winners have been 4-6yo's rated 99-102 who have carried 9-00 - 9-04. The last 5 winners have been drawn 10+
Charlie Appleby has won the race twice in the last 5 years with a lightly raced 4yo and his EASTERN WORLD fits the bill perfectly as a typical Lincoln winner. An Irish bred he's now rated 101, although he gets in here from a mark of 98, carries 9-03 thanks to a 5lb penalty for a recent comfortable win in a Meydan handicap and has a lovely draw in stall 19.
For those looking for one at a slightly bigger price, the Owen Burrows trained 4yo DANYAH passes all the trends and won at the track last June on his seasonal debut by a comfortable 3 lengths. He rounded off his season with another tidy win in a mile handicap at Haydock and looks sure to go close.
SELECTION: EASTERN WORLD 1pt 5/1
DANGER: DANYAH 1/2pt EW 12/1 (7 places SkyBet)
(Prices correct at time of writing - 2pm 26/3/21)
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