Kempton Trends and Selections

1.15 Handicap Chase

All of the last 12 winners had their last race in a class 2 or class 3 handicap chase. All of the last 12 winners had raced at least twice in handicap company. All of the last 10 winners were rated 120-130. 15 of the last 16 winners carried more than 11-00. 12 of the last 13 winners had been rested at least 33 days. 11 of the last 12 winners finished top 5 last time out (exception pulled up). 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7yo.

Applying the trends strictly leaves us looking at just one runner. He's been staying on nicely over 2 miles the last twice and looks like the step up in trip should suit.

SELECTION: ONE TRUE KING 1/2pt 15/2


1.50 Adonis Hurdle (Grade 2)

Every winner this century has been under 10/1. All of the last 12 winners were male. The last 4 winners with an official rating were rated 133+. 11 of the last 12 winners had raced a maximum of twice over hurdles in the UK or Ireland. 6 of the 7 winners to have raced in the UK over hurdles finished Top 2 last time out (exception 6th). 6 of the last 12 winners were French Bred. 5 of the last 12 winners were making their UK hurdling debut (from just 18 such runners). All 13 runners (in the last 12 years) coming from the UK or Irish flat have been beaten. Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have won 12 of the last 15 renewals.

Shock results are few and far between in this race with fancied runners very much to the fore. The Trends leaves us with three possibles.

Paul Nicholls runs two hurdle debutantants off the flat but those coming from the UK don't have a very good record and it may pay to side with his French Bred runner instead.

SELECTION: RUBAUD 1/4pt EW 20/1 - 4 PLACES


2.25 Pendil Novice Chase (Grade 2)

12 of the last 13 winners were rated 142+. 7 of the last 12 winners were French Breds. 19 of the 22 winners this century have been 6-8yo's. 7 of the last 12 winners had their last run in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company. 3 of the 4 runners coming on from Sandown have won. Only 1 winner in the last 12 years had their last run in a handicap (21 such runners). Paul Nicholls has won 11 of the last 16 renewals.

Quite simply, siding with the Paul Nicholls runner has been a profitable angle for over 15 years and with his runner this year holding very strong trends claims he looks once again to have the most likely winner. He ran in to a very decent Venetia Williams horse last time out when third in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown and should be able to gain compensation here.

SELECTION: PIC D'ORHY 1pt 2/1


3.00 Dovecote Hurdle (Grade 2)

All of the last 8 winners were aged 5 or 6yo, had been rested at least 16 days, had run 2-4 times over hurdles and last ran in a non handicap. All 8 winners had won a hurdle race. 7 of the 8 winners were rated 130+ (exception unrated). 6 of the 8 winners had their last run in class 4 (both exceptions ran in graded company). 6 of the last 8 winners also won their last race.

The likely favourite has by far the best looking trends profile and absolutely hacked up last time out in a Sandown Novice Hurdle having run well behind leading Supreme Novices Hurdle runner Constitution Hill the time before. That form is clearly the best on show in this race and he is a strong fancy to take this race.

SELECTION: SHALLWEHAVEONEMORE 2pts 13/8


3.37 Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

All of the last 15 winners were rated 130-154 and had been rested at least 21 days. 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 7-9yo. 10 of the last 12 winners had raced at least 6 times over fences. 8 of the last 12 winners were Irish Bred. 5 of the last 12 winners had their last run in a non handicap. 3 of the last 12 winners had their last run in a novice chase. 3 of the last 6 winners were sired by Kings Theatre. All 22 claiming jockeys have been beaten in the last 12 years. Only 1 of the last 12 winners also won their last race (from 35 such runners). Colin Tizzard has had 2 winners and 4 places from 9 runners. Paul Nicholls has won just once from 27 runners.

Colin Tizzard likes to target this race and his sole runner this year was a classy hurdler who was mixing it with the very best over fences as a novice. He didn't look as sharp on his two chase starts earlier this season but had a wind op and a 3 month break before reappearing in a hurdle race two weeks ago. He finished a close up third and that run should bring him here fit and ready to maintain his trainers good recent record in the race.

SELECTION: THE BIG BREAKAWAY 1/2pt 15/2


4.10 Handicap Hurdle

All of the last 12 winners were rated under 134. All of the last 12 winners had their last run at 2m5f or less (9/12 ran over 2m4f-2m5f). 11 of the last 12 winners carried 10-08 or more. 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5-7yo. 11 of the last 12 winners had raced at least 4 times over hurdles. 10 of the last 12 winners finished Top 7 last time out (4 won / 2 failed to complete). 8 of the last 12 winners were Irish Bred. 6 winners had their last run in class 3 company. 4 winners and 8 places had their last run at Kempton. 

The one horse that seems to satisfy the trends the best is the Nicky Henderson runner who has been absent from the track for over two years. He has only had one start in this country, having raced three times in France, where he could only manage a tailed off 7th in a Kempton Novice. That obviously wasn't his true running and the fact connections have kept their faith with him and given him the time off he needs hopefully points to better things ahead. He's had a wind op since that last run and if he's straight enough to do himself justice may be thrown in off a rating of just 120.

SELECTION: FAROUK DE CHENEAU 1/4pt EW 12/1