In the absence of the Tip Idol tips this week I thought I'd step in and share my three best bets for today including a horse at Chester that I am really confident about and is a rare 5 star bet for me...
3.20 Chester - CAIRN ISLAND 3/1
Why am I so confident about his chances?
How about the form of his last run. There were 9 runners in the race and he finished 4th. He's the only horse not to have run since and the exploits of the runners that finished top 6 seem to suggest he might be well handicapped seeing as the handicapper also generously dropped him 1lb after the run.
Winner of the race Creative Force raced off 89 and won his next three starts including beating the Britannia winner Perotto next time out, winning a Listed contest and then the Group 3 Jersey Stakes. He's now rated 114
Runner Up Significantly raced off 91 and subsequently ran second to Dragon Symbol (disqualified winner of the Commonwealth Cup) before winning the 19 runner Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot. He's now rated 96.
Third home Jumby raced off 95 and won a class 2 handicap at Newmarket next time out before contesting the Group 1 Kings Stand at Royal Ascot as an 11-1 shot. He's now rated 104.
Fifth home was this season's revelation Rohaan who raced off 95. He's since won a Group 3, a Group 2 (beating Dragon Symbol) and was last seen winning the Wokingham at Royal Ascot under 9-08 and a mark of 112. He's now rated 116.
Sixth home was Bravado who won a race at Ayr earlier this week off 91 and is awaiting reassessment from the handicapper.
Everything looks in place for a very big run. He's racing off 90, 1lb lower than his last run, he's on slightly easier ground over an extra furlong, the trainer has been right amongst the winners over the last week (6 wins from 18 runners) and the form of his 4th last time out is absolutely red hot.
I will be absolutely amazed (and skint) if he doesn't run really well.
(Reminder: I'm very confident of a big run and will be backing it accordingly but nothing is assured in horse racing. Please do not gamble more than you can afford to lose!)
2.20 Newcastle - DILIGENT HARRY 10/3
The Rohaan form is really strong this season and Diligent Harry ran him to a shorthead when receiving just 1lb in a handicap back in March. The winner has obviously improved a lot since then but Diligent Harry didn't fare too badly next time out either when winning a class 2 conditions race on the AW Championship Day at Lingfield. He comfortably beat some quite highly rated rivals that day and hopefully he'll be ready to continue his progress after an 85 day break.
3.15 Newmarket - MUMS TIPPLE 22/1
My third selection is a little bit bigger in price and hasn't been the most reliable of horses over the last few seasons but if he's on a going day he's more than capable of winning this. He comfortably beat Lord of the Lodge in a Listed contest back in March yet is around 3 times the price of that rival today and two starts ago went down fighting against Pogo giving him 3lb. That one did the form no harm when running a solid 5th to Palace Pier in the Queen Anne last week. He was taken off his feet when contesting a 6f Listed event at Salisbury last time out and will appreciate the step back up to 7f. Taking into account penalties he actually comes out on top of the ratings and at around 20/1 he looks a decent each way bet.
HORSES FROM ROYAL ASCOT
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I've spent the last week going through ever race run at Royal Ascot - all 35 of them - to find the impressive winners, the gallant placers, the badly drawn and the unlucky in running.
The list will be completed by Monday but there are a few runners going today from the 21 races I've covered so far.
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