It wasn’t such a good day for the blog tips but I guess that’s what you get for back big priced horses and Richard Hills mounts!

It was a good day for the trends though with both Rewilding and Rip Van Winkle being tipped in our guide although I would have preferred it if Twice Over had won. It was an incredibly exciting race and half a furlong out I thought he’d got it but that Murtagh knows where the line is and the way he got Rip into full stride and nick the race was (almost) a joy to watch.

Maybe it was the curse of stall 1 that got Twice Over beat. Let me explain.

When I was researching the trends guide for this meeting it became apparent that stall 1 doesn’t have a great record at this meeting so I thought I’d do a bit of digging to see just how bad it was. It’s bad….

Last year the meeting was extended to include 25 races over four days but this didn’t help those hapless runners coming from Stall 1 as only one horse managed to win from the lowest draw. We had to wait until the fourth day of the meeting before Mark Johnston’s Businessman led all the way at 13/2 to overcome ‘the curse’. It was the same story in 2007 (2008 meeting was abandoned) when there was just 1 winner from the bottom stall. That was Derby winner Authorized who won the International Stakes as the 6/4 favourite.

In 2006 stall 1 won, yes you guessed it, just once from the 21 races staged. That was 9/2 shot Trick or Treat who won the last race of the meeting, a 1m6f handicap contested by just 7 runners which he won by a shorthead.

We cover 10 races for our trends guides and I have draw data going back to around 1996 for most of the races. They cover most race distances and make interesting reading.

In the Acomb stakes, run over 7f, there’s been just one winner from stall 1 since 1996 and that was the O’Brien hotpot Hemingway who won at 8/13 in 2000. With an average field size of around 7 runners that’s not a very good strike rate and yesterday’s stall 1 hope in the race was Rigolleto who finished stone cold last at 10/1.

In the Great Voltigeur there hasn’t been a winner from draw 1 since at least 1996 although that stall did provide the runner up 5 times between 2003-2009. Harris Tweed had the worst of the draw in yesterday’s race and finished 7th of 10 at 12/1.

We’ve already mentioned that Autorized managed to defy the draw to win the International but he was the first to do so since 1996 when another 6/4 favourite won a 6 runner renewal from the one box. He was Halling which goes to show you the kind of horse required to defy the ‘coffin box’. In the last 11 years, apart from Autorized, only two horses from the bottom stall have even made the frame despite an average field size of just 8. One of those was Twice Over yesterday.

So what about today’s races?

It certainly doesn’t get much better in our first feature race of the day, The Lonsdale Cup, as Stall 1 hasn’t won since at least 1996 and hasn’t had a horse placed since 2001. Anyone still fancy Free Agent in today’s race?

Onto the Gimcrack where Trade Storm will be looking to become the first horse to win the race from stall 1 since 1997. With the last 7 runners from that stall failing to make the frame he’s certainly got his work cut out today.

Which leaves us with the feature race on today’s card the Ebor. Things aren’t looking good for Desert Sea in today’s race as the last winner to come from Stall 1 in the Ebor was Henry Cecil’s Tuning in 1998, the 9/2 favourite. With all of the last 11 runners from that draw failing to even make the top 3 it’s a tough ask for Neil Callan’s mount this year.

Tomorrow we cover the Lowther Stakes where Bint Allayl was the last winning Stall 1 horse in the race. That was back in 1998 and at 15/8 it probably wasn’t that much of a shock given what a class filly she was. In the Yorkshire Oaks only 5/4 favourite Petrushka has won from the lowest stall since 1997 and in fact is the only horse that has been placed from that stall in the intervening years.

Friday’s races include the Melrose Handicap which has fared better than most races over the last decase as it’s provided the winner twice since 1999. As it’s run over 1m6f that could explain things a bit and both winners were from the top 3 in the betting. Our other race, the Nunthorpe, hasn’t been quite as successful with only 5/2 favourite Nuclear Debate managing to defy Stall 1 since 1996. He won in 2000 and since then only one horse has managed to make the frame in the race from the lowest draw.

So there you have it, not a comprehensive analysis of stall 1 runners but definite food for thought with few recent winners coming from the dreaded draw and most of those well fancied favourites and class acts. In yesterday’s 6 races the one stall finished 14th of 15, 7/7, 7/10, 2/9, 3/15 and 14/18. The curse continues…..

I’ve got to take Dylan to football training so I’ll have to come back later with the Placepot Perm.

Good luck,
Gavin

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