Comments on: Weekend wrap…. http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/ Horse racing tips, analysis and statistics. Tue, 22 May 2012 15:15:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: Jez http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-341 Jez Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:20:48 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-341 As Matt (above) says, it's simple maths. Original pick was a 2/1 shot, removal of one box allows you to improve your chances to 1/1 by changing your selection - you must swap boxes. I have to agree with you re Jamie Spencer (known in my house as TCJS. You may guess what what "TC" stands for!), he's undoubtedly a good jockey but seems to keep getting himself into a boxed situation - good is good but he's not a Fallen, Kinane, Murtagh or Piggot. As long as he seems impervious to criticism and advise, until he's prepared to accept that he's not the best tactical jockey riding and changes his ways, he'll never be a "great" jockey. All the best, Jez As Matt (above) says, it’s simple maths. Original pick was a 2/1 shot, removal of one box allows you to improve your chances to 1/1 by changing your selection - you must swap boxes.

I have to agree with you re Jamie Spencer (known in my house as TCJS. You may guess what what “TC” stands for!), he’s undoubtedly a good jockey but seems to keep getting himself into a boxed situation - good is good but he’s not a Fallen, Kinane, Murtagh or Piggot. As long as he seems impervious to criticism and advise, until he’s prepared to accept that he’s not the best tactical jockey riding and changes his ways, he’ll never be a “great” jockey.

All the best,

Jez

]]> By: john http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-331 john Mon, 14 Sep 2009 15:01:15 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-331 I think if Tarrant knows which box the money is in then I would keep my original selection as he wouldn't offer to change a losing box. With regards to the Frogs:Co-Incidentally I have only had 2 bets on French racing,one being on the the 2nd horse to Dylan Thomas and yesterday Da Re Mi so you can imagine how pissed off with them I am.I won't even watch their racing from now on. I think if Tarrant knows which box the money is in then I would keep my original selection as he wouldn’t offer to change a losing box. With regards to the Frogs:Co-Incidentally I have only had 2 bets on French racing,one being on the the 2nd horse to Dylan Thomas and yesterday Da Re Mi so you can imagine how pissed off with them I am.I won’t even watch their racing from now on.

]]> By: dave http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-329 dave Mon, 14 Sep 2009 13:07:13 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-329 great question but you should have said that Tarrant KNOWS beforehand which the winning box was The odds when you picked the box were 2-1 and they are still 2-1 when Tarrent removes a loser.Put it another way there are 100 sealed envelopes each with a number in and Tarrant says the cheque in in envelope 29, you pick an envelope, and then he clears 98 of the 99 remaining and asks if you want to swap. It's the same scenario when you picked your envelope it was 99-1 and it is still 99-1 even with the swap so you should ALWAYS swap great question but you should have said that Tarrant KNOWS beforehand which the winning box was The odds when you picked the box were 2-1 and they are still 2-1 when Tarrent removes a loser.Put it another way there are 100 sealed envelopes each with a number in and Tarrant says the cheque in in envelope 29, you pick an envelope, and then he clears 98 of the 99 remaining and asks if you want to swap. It’s the same scenario when you picked your envelope it was 99-1 and it is still 99-1 even with the swap so you should ALWAYS swap

]]> By: matt http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-328 matt Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:53:47 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-328 Yes, definitely! You had a 33 per cent chance and you've now got a 50 percent chance if you swap. Matt Yes, definitely!

You had a 33 per cent chance and you’ve now got a 50 percent chance if you swap.

Matt

]]> By: Dave http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-327 Dave Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:51:54 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-327 When there is 3 boxes...and you pick one..you have a 33% chance of getting it right.....now there are only 2 boxes...your odds are much better you have a 50% chance of getting it right....as the one you picked to start with was 1 in 3 if you switch your odds have gone up to 1 in 2.....so hey why not.... When there is 3 boxes…and you pick one..you have a 33% chance of getting it right…..now there are only 2 boxes…your odds are much better you have a 50% chance of getting it right….as the one you picked to start with was 1 in 3 if you switch your odds have gone up to 1 in 2…..so hey why not….

]]> By: D Travs http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/weekend-wrap-2/#comment-325 D Travs Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:07:31 +0000 http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/?p=1226#comment-325 You must keep the box as he knew wich box to reviel nothing. You must keep the box as he knew wich box to reviel nothing.

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