5 things I learnt over the weekend.
1) Jamie Spencer really is The Hankerchief…
i.e. he’s always in a pocket. The ride he gave Father Time in The Leger was definitely not his finest hour. I know I’m talking through my pocket, although I did have a nice saver on the winner, but he spent the entire period from 3 furlongs out trying to find a gap on a horse full of running. In a long distance race like the Leger you need to get your horse galloping as evenly as possible not stopping and starting as you try and find a gap. Asking a stayer to run in snatches like that doesn’t do the horse (or punters) any favours and uses up valuable energy that is needed at the end of the race. I’ve never been a fan of Frank Spencer and his ride on Saturday has done nothing to change my views on him, why Tom Queally wasn’t onboard I’ll never know.
2) York’s Acomb Stakes could be one of the 2yo races of the season…
The result of the race read
1st) Elusive Pimpernel
2nd) Emerald Commander - won easily next time out in a Listed race
3rd) Poets Voice - won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes on Saturday
4th) Vale of York - won Listed race at Goodwood
5th) Mata Keranjang - 2nd in the same Listed race at Goodwood
On his debut at Newmarket’s July meeting Elusive Pimpernel had Poets Voice and Emerald Commander back in 3rd and 4th. He is 2 from 2 this season and 20/1 for next years 2000 Guineas. Next stop is likely to be the Dewhurst. Could be some value there.
3) French Stewards are a law unto themselves…
Their rules on interference are different from ours and strictly applying these rules to yesterday’s Prix Vermeille there were grounds (however slim) for disqualifying Dar Re Mi. She slightly hampered the 5th horse home Soberania and if the stewards thought that this denied the filly a better place than she achieved then Dar Re Mi has to be disqualified and placed behind Soberina. In this case that’s exactly what they thought and she was therefore placed 5th and Soberania promoted to 4th. What is strange about this case is that when Dylan Thomas won the Arc (great result!) he too hampered a horse, the 4th home Soldier of Fortune, and definitely denied him a higher placing. He was allowed to keep the race that day but looked a certainty to be disqualified. Maybe the fact that the second horse in the Arc was also British trained swayed their decision whereas yesterday a certain French superstar was the runner-up. Sacre Bleu! Mais Non! Hors de question!
4) War Artist may yet win a Group 1 in Europe…
James Eustace must be another trainer reading this blog as in bringing War Artist back to 5f he was able to win a Group sprint yesterday and put himself very much in the reckoning for next months Prix de L’Abbaye. I’d long thought and written that this distance would bring out the best in him and although he managed to pick up a weak Group 2 in Germany over 6f I definitely think his best chance of Group 1 success will come over 5f. France’s most prestigious sprint beckons and I’ll be backing him accordingly.
5) I reckon I saw the Ayr Gold Cup winner in Saturday’s Portland…
With the ground likely to be softer and the distance over slightly further I’m pretty sure I saw the Ayr Gold Cup winner run in Saturday’s Portland Handicap. There’s only 7 days between the two races this year but these sprinters are tough animals and I don’t think that will affect him too much. I’ll let you know his name later in the week…
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Before I go I’ll leave you with another mathematical problem that has caused no end of debate since it was first aired on the Monty Hall TV show in America some years ago. I’ve altered the scenario a bit but the underlying problem is exactly the same…..
You’re in a TV quiz show and have made it through to the final round. Chris Tarrant, the host, now places 3 boxes in front of Box A, Box B and Box C. In one of the boxes is a cheque for £50,000 and in the other two boxes there is nothing. If you select the box with the cheque in you get to keep it, simple as that!
You make your choice (Box B) and you and the audience hold your breath in anticipation.
Chris Tarrant then announces ‘I’ll tell you what, I’m going to open one of the other boxes for you’
He proceeds to open Box C and reveals an empty box.
He now asks ‘Would you like to switch boxes?’
And that is the basically the question …..Should you switch boxes? or stick with your original choice?
I’ll reveal all tomorrow but if you want to leave a comment below, please do (simply click on the Comments link at the end of the Post)
Good luck,
Gavin.
September 14th, 2009 at 10:07 am
You must keep the box as he knew wich box to reviel nothing.
September 14th, 2009 at 10:51 am
When there is 3 boxes…and you pick one..you have a 33% chance of getting it right…..now there are only 2 boxes…your odds are much better you have a 50% chance of getting it right….as the one you picked to start with was 1 in 3 if you switch your odds have gone up to 1 in 2…..so hey why not….
September 14th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Yes, definitely!
You had a 33 per cent chance and you’ve now got a 50 percent chance if you swap.
Matt
September 14th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
great question but you should have said that Tarrant KNOWS beforehand which the winning box was The odds when you picked the box were 2-1 and they are still 2-1 when Tarrent removes a loser.Put it another way there are 100 sealed envelopes each with a number in and Tarrant says the cheque in in envelope 29, you pick an envelope, and then he clears 98 of the 99 remaining and asks if you want to swap. It’s the same scenario when you picked your envelope it was 99-1 and it is still 99-1 even with the swap so you should ALWAYS swap
September 14th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
I think if Tarrant knows which box the money is in then I would keep my original selection as he wouldn’t offer to change a losing box. With regards to the Frogs:Co-Incidentally I have only had 2 bets on French racing,one being on the the 2nd horse to Dylan Thomas and yesterday Da Re Mi so you can imagine how pissed off with them I am.I won’t even watch their racing from now on.
September 15th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
As Matt (above) says, it’s simple maths. Original pick was a 2/1 shot, removal of one box allows you to improve your chances to 1/1 by changing your selection - you must swap boxes.
I have to agree with you re Jamie Spencer (known in my house as TCJS. You may guess what what “TC” stands for!), he’s undoubtedly a good jockey but seems to keep getting himself into a boxed situation - good is good but he’s not a Fallen, Kinane, Murtagh or Piggot. As long as he seems impervious to criticism and advise, until he’s prepared to accept that he’s not the best tactical jockey riding and changes his ways, he’ll never be a “great” jockey.
All the best,
Jez