At this time of year, there are a lot of races where the betting market is formed on opinions and reputations, rather than collateral form. I am primarily referring to two year old races here, as opposed to seasonal debutantes who may have improved / regressed since the previous season.
One element is more important than any other when betting 2yo’s: the benefit of previous experience. So many horses are having their first sight of a racetrack, their first feel of the whip, their first listen to the noise, and so on…
A simple analysis of this has identified a lucrative niche for betting 2yo’s on their second start early in the season (April to June).
As ever, I strip out the fillies and concentrate on colts and geldings (male horses). The other criteria are as follows:
- Didn’t win on their first start
- Second favourite in the betting
Just by applying these simple criteria, you’d have won 96 out of 315 bets since 1998, and returned a tidy 94.86 points profit. That’s around two grand for £20 stakes on a strike rate of over 30%.
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%
1998 7 28 25.00 2.75 9.82 17.05
1999 8 29 27.59 8.83 30.45 22.08
2000 9 24 37.50 15.83 65.96 65.04
2001 10 33 30.30 9.83 29.79 34.84
2002 14 38 36.84 20.75 54.61 59.54
2003 9 38 23.68 -1.25 -3.29 4.66
2004 16 49 32.65 17.33 35.37 48.03
2005 11 39 28.21 7.58 19.44 28.84
2006 12 37 32.43 13.21 35.70 33.21
_____________________________ _______________________________
96 315 30.48 94.86 30.11 34.94
A quick review of yesterday’s action, and - as mentioned - I felt the prolific sand scorers were classic place lay opportunities in their respective races at Newcastle. Dichoh was sent off 10/3 favourite in the Spring Mile and finished 17th, beating just two home. Gentleman’s Deal fared slightly better. Sent off 7/2 favourite, he finished 15th of 20. Place layers never had a moment’s concern!
As a general rule, we see year in and year out, good horses from the sand made favourite for races they generally cannot win on the turf. Look out for these and oppose at will!
Quick word about Rapid City yesterday, who finished fourth. I was very disappointed for two reasons: firstly I felt that there was no way he should have been making the running if there was any pace in the race (he was taken on for the lead, so there was clearly pace!) Secondly, I felt - though I’ve yet to see a replay - that James Doyle dropped his hands and got caught for third place as well. The joys of being a minority shareholder in a racehorse!
Until next time…
Matt