Tom Tate, dear reader, is a trainer with an enviable record at Newcastle. His record of nine winners from eleven runners (at under 14/1 between September and April) marked him down as a man to follow for TTS fans.
So it was a surprise to see the Racing Post tissue show his Charlie Crab at 16/1 overnight. Of course, the statistics now show that Tom Tate’s record at Newcastle has improved to 8 from 12, and that was courtesy of CC at a much more plausible (but still profitable) 10/3.
If you happen to be a placepot punter who follows TTS, so much the better. In today’s six races, the favourite was placed in two races, the second favourite in three (including CC’s race), and the third and fourth-in placed in the other race.
Over £400 for getting that? Why? Because in CC’s race, where he was forecast to be much bigger, the placed horses were 33/1 and 25/1.
Based on Racing Post tissues, that’s 16/1, 25/1 and 33/1.
But TTS punters knew.
Season so far:
September: 10 winners from 34 runners, +£194 (29.41% strike rate)
21 in first three from 34 runners, +£206 (61.76% strike rate)
October: 17 winners from 81 runners, +£203 (20.98% strike rate)
46 in first three from 81 runners, +£457 (56.79% strike rate)
November: 2 winners from 5 runners, +£52 (40% strike rate)
3 in first three from 5 runners, +£55 (60% strike rate)
Ok, so November is only a day old, but it’s a great start!
Overall, we’re up £450 on the win bets, and a whacking £718 on place bets. This is all for £20 stakes, on betfair, with the usual 5% commissions deducted. That totals up to £1,168 for just £20 stakes.
For those readers lucky enough to bet in £100 units, that equates to £2,250 win and £3,590 place. A total of £5,840. Nuff said.
Of course, now I’ve done all this number crunching, the wheels will likely fall off (though there’s no logical reason why they should, given that the research was put together over five seasons’ worth of data).
Last plug… for a while… www.trainertrackstats.com
A quick word, while I’m here, on what I perceive to be some excellent ante post value for the Champion Hurdle.
Sublimity is too short for a horse who needs a lot of things to go his way, as they did last year, when he saw off the old guard.
The young guns take him on this year though, led by my dear friend Katchit. As much as I love this horse (regular readers know how much! Type his name in on the Search page, accessible from the top, if you want to see some old eulogies to the Katch…), five year olds’ as he will be next March, have an atrocious record in the race.
Which brings me to the 3rd favourite in the race, Detroit City. He was a 5yo when he started this season’s Champion Hurdle as favourite at odds as tight as 6/4. He still is a 5yo, but will be six when the race is run next, and a year stronger.
Its true that you have to forgive DC a bad run at Aintree afterwards, where he was doubtless feeling the effects of a tough enough season, but before that he was ‘the daddy junior’.
His debut this season will reveal a lot, but he’s with the right trainer and - after a nice summer rest - he must come right back into things if putting best hoof forward first time up.
16/1 is a fat juicy price if you think he can return near his best.
The other I’d put up in the race, Straw Bear, tonked the winner Sublimity in the previous year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and also spanked Champion Hurdle bronze medallist, Afsoun, in his previous run.
The Bear burst a blood vessel in the big race this year, which is a worrying sign in any horse. But again, if you can forgive the horse one bursting, he looks appetising to say the least at 25/1 (36 on betfair).
By the way, to repeat my usual advice, when betting ante post (especially so far from an event), bet win only. It’s just not worth losing twice your stake or only placing half your stake to win, with so many slips ‘twixt cup and lip to come between now and next March.
But let’s get that ante-post portfolio bubbling up!!
Matt