Not just the name of a mediocre racehorse, dear reader, but also the fear of the number 13. From the Greek, Tris = three, kai = and, deka = ten, according to Wikipedia. And today is Friday as well, to compound the concerns of the more superstitious in our fine community.

Well, for me, it was very much a case of duokaidekaphobia, as Thursday 12th provided one of my most memorable blowout days ever, in a betting context at least.

My lays won (and how! 4/6, 11/8, 7/2 and - wait for it - 6/1!) to undo about a month’s good work with a new system I’m playing with. My back selections are still running (one was reported missing late last night - last seen a furlong adrift somewhere on Newmarket Heath…).

I thought I’d caught a cracker with Philippe Gilbert in the Tour when he was the most aggressive man in a three rider breakaway. But, after 120 km’s away from the peloton, the plucky trio were engulfed with just six miles to race.

So it was a case of Philippe f-lop (geddit?!).

No matter, for today is another day. I am reminded of one of my favourite racing maxims, and one which I would strongly advise all of you to consider:

After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run.

This is the unequivocal law of our game, and it serves me well in times of need. Like today, having done my poke yesterday!

Of course, my bad luck cycle may not be quite through, but I was born an optimist and I will die one, so onwards and downwards it must be.

July Cup is the big race of the day, and much discussion is centred on the 3yo Sakhee’s Secret. The boy has been massively impressive in Listed class, but it’s one hell of a step up in grade, straight into a Group 1.

I’ve been reading a book about class, that most ethereal of traits (in both humans and horseflesh), so it was interesting to read James Willoughby’s piece in the Racing Post today about class and how it affects racehorses.

Willoughby notes that, although the final time of today’s race may be akin to the times that SS has already been running, he is likely to encounter much faster early fractions than he ever has before. Quite simply, he could be spent before halfway.

There is much credence in this. Furthermore, as Dr James Quinn, the leading US author on class, asserts, class can also be measured in a horse’s ability to withstand challenges. SS has yet to have to hang tough under duress in his classic season and, as a 2yo, in the two of his three races when he was challenged, he folded tamely (he won the other race by six lengths!).

On balance, though I think he is a very (very!) fast horse, I am against SS, as I just think he will be outclassed today. He won’t be able to dominate these in the way he has other fields, and he may well be on the retreat before halfway, having struggled with the early fractions.

Against him, I am a big fan of the fastest cripple on four legs, Soldier’s Tale. Whether his fragile frame will stand up on the faster grass of the Heath remains to be seen, but I’ll have a small win bet at the available 12/1 in case.

I’ll strengthen my hand with a horse placed in the 2,000 Guineas and now dropping back to a trip he looks suited to, Dutch Art. Lots of non-staying milers have found their metier when dropped to sprint trips, and this horse definitely oozes the class which Sakhee’s Secret has yet to prove. While 5/1 is not a sexy price, it is a fair one, and the Chapple-Hyam yard could hardly be in better form.

If SS wins, I will be the first to salute a potential new champ; if the Soldier battles home in front, I’ll be delighted for the old knacker; if Dutch Art wins, I will feel vindicated that at least fresh blood is appearing in a frankly below class division of British racing (the sprinters).

If something else wins, I’ll not be surprised, but I will be a little disappointed (and a few quid still poorer).

A lay for the day, and my system yet again throws up one of my favourite trainers. This time it tells me that Alambic cannot win, even though Sir Mark Prescott forgets more about racing on a daily basis than I will ever know. Let’s hope this time he’s placed his nag inappropriately. It doesn’t happen very often, for sure.

By the way, talking of lays, if you missed yesterday’s post, have a look at the review of the ‘Easy Money Laying’ system, and learn how you can get it for free. (Of course, there’s a small condition, but - trust me - it’s a favourable one).

Check it out here: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html and look for Thursday’s post.

Onto the Tour, and today is very much the calm before the storm. From tomorrow, the riders are faced with the literal highs and lows of the Alps. This is a part of the race where riders are - in some cases, sadly, literally - killing themselves to get home in front. (Tom Simpson, the British rider, collapsed and died on Mont Ventoux forty years ago. Others have tragically passed the same way since, notably the Italian Fabio Casartelli, descending in the Pyrenees).

So, today will be an edgy day, with the big riders wanting to conserve their energies for what is to come (especially Vinokourov who crashed yesterday and lost big time on his rivals - he will be fun to watch over the weekend), and with sprinters wanting one last hurrah before many of them cry enough, not able to go the ominous metre of the peloton as it wends itself inexorably upward.

If you take the view that it will be a sprint finish, as I do, then there are only a handful of riders who can realistically win.

Tom Boonen is a perennial challenger and multiple sprint stage winner, but he banged his arm a few days back, and has been off the pace since. While it wouldn’t surprise me if he resurged, I will look elsewhere.

I am a huge fan of the Norwegian monster, Thor Hushovd. The man’s a genetic freak and frankly scares the 5h1t out of me. But boy can he ride! He’s a 10.5/1 shot in betfair’s book and I’ll have some of that.

The other really obvious candidate is Robbie McEwan. At 4/1, he’s not exactly great value but he will likely be only a wheel away from first place, if he doesn’t prevail. I’ll reluctantly swerve him in the quest for a bit of value.

Finally, at a surprisingly large price for a new kid on the block, Gert Steegmans can be backed at 85. He’s already won a sprint stage, beating Boonen in Belgium, and he can give us a bit of fun at a massive price.

As I’m writing this, I see that Bradley Wiggins, the British rider has made a lone break. He is currently 5′40″ up on the peloton, but this is surely a move to get his sponsor some publicity. I’d be astonished (and absolutely delighted) if he could maintain his prominence to stage end, but nevertheless ‘Go Brad!!’.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 13th, 2007 at 10:40 am and is filed under Tour De France. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.