The Second Half…

With the Guineas, Derby and Royal Ascot all done and dusted it's now time to look at the second half of the Flat Season.

There are still a lot of big races and Festivals to come including the King George VI at Ascot this Saturday, Glorious Goodwood next week and York's Ebor meeting at the end of next Month. All of those races will be covered in the Festival Trends Service along with the St Leger meeting, Ayr Gold Cup, Cambridgeshire & Cesarewitch, Ascot Champions Day and The Breeders Cup.

You can get all those races/meetings for just £15 (Festival Trends End of Season Membership) but if that's not of any interest then I will be running a series of FREE posts this week looking at a few betting angles for the second half of the flat Season.

We start today with 5 trainer systems that have been worth following during the months of August & September over the last 5 years....

5 TRAINERS TO FOLLOW (1st August - 30th September)

SIR MARK PRESCOTT has a terrific record in handicaps during the second half of the Flat Season and has consistently recorded a strike rate of around 30% in these types of races over the last 5 years. By applying a couple of simple rules to his runners we can increase this to a near 50% strike rate without compromising the Profit Figures.

RACE TYPES: CLASS 3-6 TURF HANDICAPS

RUNNERS TO NOTE: MALE 2 & 3yo's ONLY.

RESULTS:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

74

35

47.30%

46.36

45

60.81%

Period

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

2016

16

8

50%

5.18

9

56%

2015

11

6

55%

6.7

7

64%

2014

16

10

63%

22.47

13

81%

2013

13

4

31%

2.13

6

46%

2012

18

7

39%

9.88

10

56%


ISMAIL MOHAMMED has been targeting specific handicaps in the second half of the season to great effect over the last 5 Seasons but his runners are still available at decent prices. If he continues at his current 1 in 3 strike rate that won't be happening for much longer so we better take advantage while we still can...

RACE TYPES: TURF HANDICAPS OVER 1M AND FURTHER

RUNNERS TO NOTE: 3-5yo's ONLY.

RESULTS:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

56

19

33.93%

90.38

26

46.43%

Period

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

2016

10

5

50%

34.25

6

60%

2015

17

3

18%

7.5

5

29%

2014

13

5

38%

15.5

6

46%

2013

11

4

36%

24.5

7

64%

2012

5

2

40%

8.63

2

40%


WILLIE HAGGAS does very well with his experienced 2yo's in the second half of the flat season (Turf & AW). You need to concentrate on those ridden by non claiming jockeys and those that had their last run outside of handicap company for the best strike rates and profit figures.

RACE TYPES: 2YO RACES

RUNNERS TO NOTE: 2yo's with 2-5 career starts who had their last race in a non-handicap. Ridden by non-claiming jockeys.

RESULTS:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

97

41

42.27%

84.28

61

62.89%

Period

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

2016

24

10

42%

7.89

14

58%

2015

26

12

46%

17.25

21

81%

2014

17

5

29%

15.87

10

59%

2013

16

9

56%

30.87

10

63%

2012

14

5

36%

12.4

6

43%


JOHN GOSDEN has an incredible record at Newmarket throughout August and September maintaining a near 30% strike rate with all his runners over the last 5 years. That figure would have been considerably more had he not had a relatively poor run over those 2 months at the track last Season but he did bounce back to have a great October and finish the end of the 2017 Season in profit. Given that, we'll forgive him the one bad year and re-evaluate at the end of September to see whether we carry on backing his runners in October.

RACE TYPES: ALL RACES AT NEWMARKET

RUNNERS TO NOTE: ALL JOHN GOSDEN RUNNERS

RESULTS:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

124

36

29.03%

82.30

57

45.97%

Period

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

2016

22

3

14%

-5.12

7

32%

2015

22

9

41%

11.63

11

50%

2014

29

8

28%

17.57

12

41%

2013

26

9

35%

40.39

15

58%

2012

25

7

28%

17.83

12

48%


ROGER VARIAN'S record over 7f at Salisbury with any type of horse is, quite simply, staggering. Since starting out as a trainer he has run 17 horses over that course and distance and 10 have won (+2 placed). Furthermore, they show a LSP of +38.98.

  • 6 of those 10 winners were in handicaps from just 7 runners!
  • 7 of the 10 winners were female from just 9 runners!
  • All 5 of his runners that finished top 3 last time out have won
  • Both his runners in Class 2 company have won

RACE TYPES: ALL 7F RACES AT SALISBURY

RUNNERS TO NOTE: ALL ROGER VARIAN RUNNERS

RESULTS:

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

17

10

58.82%

38.98

12

70.59%

Period

Bets

Wins

Win Strike

SP_PL

Places

Place Strike

2017

1

0

0%

-1

0

0%

2016

2

1

50%

13

1

50%

2015

3

2

67%

10

3

100%

2014

3

2

67%

7.33

3

100%

2013

3

1

33%

1.5

1

33%

2012

2

2

100%

6

2

100%

2011

3

2

67%

2.15

2

67%

There are 9 fixtures left at Salisbury this Season.

Make sure you note the Roger Varian runners over 7f!


I'll be back tomorrow with a list of horses I'm waiting to run again, Wednesday I have a couple of races worth looking out for along with a couple of micro-systems and then Thursday I will be giving the Ascot International Handicap the full 5T Treatment.

It's going to be a busy fortnight....

Good luck,
Gavin.

THE SECOND HALF

If you would like notifying when there are any runners from the 5 Trainer Systems above and any from the Horses To Follow, Systems and Races that will follow this week then I will be running a Daily Email Service throughout August and September for JUST £10!

signup

There will also be 7 further races during those two months that I will be giving the 5T treatment to (Trends, Trainers, Trials, Tips and Those Taking Part). These will be exclusive to those subscribing to the Email Service and include some of the biggest handicaps and Group races run during the second half of the Season.

The email service starts on 1st August but for those signing up before then I will also include the Daily Nag Email for Glorious Goodwood, for FREE!

That's a lot of value for just £10!

signup

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6 thoughts on “The Second Half…

  • Hi Gavin

    I thoroughly enjoyed following your 2 year old ‘eyecatchers’ early in the season and am more than happy to sign up for the August/September system and horses to follow which I feel sure will produce some good winners. Best of luck

    • Thanks Charles,

      Yes, we had a good run with the early 2yo’s.
      Let’s hope the end of Season juveniles are just as profitable.

      All the best,
      Gavin

  • Hi Gavin

    Will you be advising whether to back the selections to win or advising them each way.

    Thanks

    Mick

Comments are closed.