The Royal Hunt Cup Analysis

ROYAL HUNT CUP – Royal Ascot 19th June

1mile, Class 2 Handicap, 3yo+

Year

Form

Draw

Horse

Runs

Age

Weight

Rated

Odds

Trainer

2018

111-14

22

SETTLE FOR BAY

12

4

9-01

99

16/1

D. MARNANE

2017

0-4803

26

ZHUI FENG

19

4

9-00

100

25/1

A. PERRETT

2016

0125-1

4

PORTAGE

8

4

9-05

105

10/1

M. HALFORD

2015

143-02

11

GM HOPKINS

9

4

9-03

103

8/1

J. GOSDEN

2014

-5950

33

FIELD OF DREAM

36

7

9-01

101

20/1

J. OSBOURNE

2013

-0020

6

BELGIAN BILL

26

5

8-11

97

33/1

G. BAKER

2012

541-2

33

PRINCE OF JOHANANNES

23

6

9-03

100

16/1

J P FAHY

2011

10-33

24

JULIENAS

8

4

8-08

93

12/1

W. SWINBURN

2010

119-44

11

INVISIBLE MAN

11

4

8-09

95

28/1

S BIN SUROOR

2009

1-11

33

FORGOTTEN VOICE

3

4

9-01

101

4/1f

J. NOSEDA

2008

-12120

26

MR AVIATOR

16

4

9-05

102

25/1

R HANNON

2007

150-20

17

ROYAL OATH

7

4

9-00

96

9/1

J H M GOSDEN


Trends

The highest rated winner in the last 22 years has been 105

  • All 66 horses rated above this have been beaten

  • 5 of the last 7 winners were rated 100+

The biggest weight carried to victory in the last 22 years was 9-05

  • All 88 horses carrying more than this have been beaten

  • 6 of the last 7 winners carried 9-00+

15 of the last 22 winners finished Top 4 last time out

  • All 7 exceptions finished 9th or worse

  • All 7 exceptions last ran in a Class 2 Handicap

19 of the last 22 winners were aged 4 or 5yo

  • All 31 horses aged 8yo or over have been beaten

  • 7yo's are 1 winner from 54 runners

No winner in the last 22 years has come from Stalls 1 or 2

  • Only 18 of the 88 win and placed horses from the last 21 years were drawn under 10

  • All 40 horses drawn 8 or 9 have finished unplaced

No winner in the last 22 years had their last run in Group company

  • Horses that last ran in Group 3 company are 0 wins and 3 places from 36 runners

  • Only 2 of the last 22 winners ran outside of Handicap company last time out (both in a Listed race)

The last claiming jockey to win the Hunt Cup was in 1999 (3lb)

  • All 27 jockeys claiming 5 or 7lb in the last 21 years finished unplaced

  • 3lb claimers are 1 win and 3 places from 31 runners

All of the last 22 winners were rated between 1-19lbs higher than the lowest rated runner in the field

  • All 53 bottom rated runners have been beaten

  • All 30 runners rated 20 or more lbs than the lowest rated runner have been beaten


Trials

I've taken a look at the last 9 winners and the races they contested before Royal Ascot.....

2018

- Settle For Bay had been campaigned entirely in Ireland for his 12 races with most of his runs coming on the all weather surface at Dundalk. He had rattled up a four time on that surface at the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.

  • He came into the Hunt Cup having finished a staying on 4th in a Leopardstown 7f Handicap where he was noted travelling well early on in the race.

2017

- Zhui Feng came here on the back of a third place finish in the Victoria Cup handicap over Ascot's 7f. He had tried to lead all the way that day but had been swamped in the last 100 yards by the well handicapped Fastnet Tempest. Similar tactics were employed in the Hunt Cup where this time he found extra to repel the challengers and score by ½ length at 25/1. He was a rare winner that had raced over 7f last time out and had raced quite a few more times than a typical 4yo winner of this race.

  • He ran 11th in the Britannia Handicap the previous year and a very creditable 5th in the Cambridgeshire later that Season. Leading up to the Hunt Cup he had contested the three big pre-Royal Ascot handicaps namely The Lincoln, Spring Cup and Victoria Cup.

2016

Portage won the race having finished first in the Listed Silver Stakes at the Curragh just 11 days previous. That was his first run of Season. The Curragh race was over 1m2f and he won by a length as the 7/4 favourite. When winning the Hunt Cup he became the first horse since 2003 not to have raced in handicap company last time out and he is the joint highest rated winner in the last 20 years.

  • He had run 17th at the previous years Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap when a well fancied 7/1 shot. He came back to Ascot a month later to win a class 2 handicap and then finished 2nd of 22 and 5th of 34 in the Irish and Newmarket Cambridgeshires

2015

- GM Hopkins finished runner up in a class 2 mile handicap on Lockinge day at Newbury a month previous to the Hunt Cup. This was his second start of the season having finished 10th in the Lincoln on his seasonal debut when sent off the 6/1 favourite. He had a decent trends profile and fitted the 5 main stats for the race.

  • He didn't run at Royal Ascot the previous year as he missed all of that Summer but he did win a class 3 handicap at Sandown and the the 22 runner Cambridgeshire consolation race at Newmarket when returning from his break in September.

2014

- Field Of Dream was making his Seasonal debut when winning the 2014 Hunt Cup and had been off the track since running down the field in the Newmarket Cambridgeshire. That same season he had won the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, finished 5th of 29 in the Ascot International Handicap, 9th in the Betfred Mile at Glorious Goodwood and 5th in another big field handicap at Ascot.

  • He had run at 3 of the previous 4 Royal Ascot Festivals running 5th in the Jersey Stakes in 2010 and 4th at 66/1 and 6th at 12/1 in the 2012 & 2013 Hunt Cups. Although having a great record in big field handicaps over the previous 2 Seasons his trends profile wasn't ideal being a 7yo who had been off the track for over 8 months.

2013

Belgian Bill had been campaigned extensively on the All Weather and in Meydan that Winter but came back to turf to run 15th in the Newbury Spring Cup towards the end of April before running in the Hunt Cup 2 months later. Despite being 33/1 he fulfilled all 5 of the main trends

  • He had run twice at the previous Royal Ascot Festival running 12th in the Hunt Cup and then 7th in the old 7f Buckingham Palace handicap two days later. He had also finished 4th in the Brittannia Handicap at the 2011 Royal Ascot Festival.

2012

- Prince of Johanne had run just the once before Royal Ascot when second in the Listed Hambleton handicap at York's Dante meeting 4 weeks previous. He had only gone down by a nose that day and would race from a 2lb higher mark at Ascot.

  • He didn't run at Royal Ascot the previous Season, in fact he'd never run at Ascot before, but he had caused a bit of a shock when winning the Cambridgeshire at 40/1 the previous September. He was only the second 6yo to win the Hunt Cup in the last 20 years but fulfilled all the other main trends.

2011

- Julienas was third in a couple of mile handicaps at Sandown in the Spring prior to winning the Hunt Cup. The second of those two runs saw him finish 3½ lengths behind the winner in a class 3 contest where the softish ground may not have been to his liking.

  • He didn't run at Royal Ascot the previous year as he only started racing from July onwards that Season. As an inform lightly raced 4yo with the right weight and rating he ticked all the boxes for the five main race trends.

2010

- Invisible Man was another to have come to the Hunt Cup having finished top 4 in the Whitsun Cup at Sandown on his previous start. That had been his second run of that season having also run 4th in a class 3 handicap at Newmarket a fortnight earlier.

  • He had been trained up to that Season by John Gosden who had run him at Royal Ascot in 2009 in the Britannia Handicap where he finished 13th. He later won two class 3 handicaps that same Summer but flopped at Glorious Goodwood when going lame and was then moved to the Saeed Bin Suroor stable for the 2010 Season. He was another lightly raced 4yo who fulfilled all the main trends.

------

Interestingly 5 of the last 7 winners had contested either the Cambridgeshire (or the Cambridgeshire consolation race) the previous October while 4 of the last six 4yo winners had contested the Britannia Handicap the previous year. 2 winners came from the Whitsun Cup despite few runners coming on from that race.

2018 Cambridgeshire & consolation race runners with entries in this year's Hunt Cup

Mordin, Kynren, Raising Sand, Stylehunter, Masham Star, Via Serendipity, Zwayyan, Sands Chorus, Seniority, Afaak, Whats The Story, Circus Couture, Mountain Hunter, History Writer (c)

Breden (c)

2018 Britannia Handicap runners with entries in this year's Hunt Cup

Stylehunter, Vale of Kent, George of Hearts, Petrus, Qaysar

2019 Whitsun Handicap runners with entries in this year's Hunt Cup

Lush Life, War Glory, History Writer, I'vegotthepower, Data Protection, Azzeccagarbugli


Trainers (Best and Worst for the last 21 years)

The best....

James Fanshawe and John Gosden are the only trainers to have won the race on more than one occasion over the last 21 years

  • Fanshawe has also had a further 4 horses placed from his 11 runners.

  • Gosden had seen three of his other runners also make the frame (3 of his 4 runners finished 3rd-6th-7th in 2017)

Saeed Bin Suroor has had one winner and two places from 12 runners

  • His last 11 runners have all been 18/1 and above. 5 of his last 7 runners finished top 10

Jamie Osborne has trained 1 winner and had two further places from 9 runners

  • His 2014 winner Field of Dream ran in 4 Hunt Cups finishing 4-6-1-29

Of those who are still training, Mick Halford, James Eustace, Sir Michael Stoute, James Bethell, George Baker, Ed Dunlop, Clive Cox and David Marnane have all won the race in the last 20 years

and the worst...

Richard Fahey has had 1 placed horse from his 20 runners while Mick Channon is 1 place from 12 runners

  • All 17 of Richard Fahey's runners this century have finished unplaced at 16/1 or above

Andrew Balding has a records of 0 wins 2 places from 14 runners

  • 7 of Andrew Balding's last 14 runners have finished 20th or worse in the Hunt Cup.

Mark Johnston is 1 place from 11 runners which is slightly better than David Elsworth who has seen all 11 of his runners finish unplaced

  • David Elsworth's shortest priced runner was 10/1 and finished 5th. The other 10 were 16/1 or bigger with 9 finishing outside the top 10 (exception 8th)

The type to look out for....

Recent winners have tended to be 4 or 5yo's rated 99-105 and carrying 9-00 or more. They either finished top 4 last time out or finished way down the field in a class 2 handicap but the last 13 winners had all run top 5 in at least 1 of their last 2 runs. Winning the Hunt Cup on seasonal debut is rare with most having run within the last 3 months.

A big no-no are horses that had their last run in Group company, those ridden by claiming jockeys, those trained by Richard Fahey and those right at the bottom of the handicap.

Tips....

The first runner that takes my eye is a lightly raced 4yo that comes from a highly respected stable. The trainer has had success in the race previously with similar types and there's a lot to like about this one's profile. He ran very respectably in last year's Britannia Handicap and also ran midfield in the Cambridgeshire finishing 2nd in the stand side group. He didn't quite see out the 9f that day and again looked a non stayer on his comeback run a couple of weeks ago when a beaten favourite over 10f. He does now have the benefit of a run this Season and looks handily rated on 99.

My other selection doesn't quite fit the Trends as well but he does also come from a stable with a decent record in the race. As a 7yo he's a bit older than your typical Hunt Cup winner but comes with a long history of running well in these big field handicaps, especially at Ascot. Last year he was noted running on well at the finish in the Hunt Cup despite having come from a poor draw before returning to Ascot in October to win a £112k handicap over 7f. He also ran well in the Cambridgeshire, the Balmoral Handicap and on his seasonal debut in the Victoria Cup at Ascot over 7f. Nothing was finishing better than him that day and the return to a mile should suit him perfectly. The rain we've been having recently is a major plus and I think everything is in place for a massive run. He's my best handicap bet of the week.

Find out who I'm backing with a....

FESTIVAL TRENDS MEMBERSHIP at ROYAL ASCOT

As usual I'll be covering all 30 races this year at Royal Ascot providing the Trends, Stats, Facts and Figures for each race.
I'll also be giving my selections for each race along with the exclusive Nag Ratings.

Members will also receive Special Bonus content including

  • the important stats regarding top trainer Aiden O'Brien's incredible recent record at the meeting
  • Hunt Cup analysis (above) with the names of my two selections
  • an ante-post Lucky 15 featuring my 4 best bets of the meeting
  • access to the Highway 50 ante-post portfolio
  • first look at my £1 million Lucky 15 attempt (released Monday)

**PLUS**

The opportunity to get subscription to the Horses From Royal Ascot for just £10 when buying both services at the same time!

This is the service that last year made over 100pts profit in 3 months thanks to at least 1 winner every Saturday including odds of 16/1 (twice), 28/1 & 33/1!!

It's going to be this Summer's biggest ticket and you can get it for just £10...

instantaccess

1,402 total views, 5 views today