THE JULY CUP 2017

We've had a lot of success with the Blog Posts analysing all of the runners in a specific race this Season so let's try again for the July Cup with the 5T analysis...

1) TRENDS

  • All of the last 11 winners had finished top 6 last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 winners were 3-5yo's (Exception was a 6yo) - Only 1 horse aged 6 or over has won in the last 60+ years
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had won at 6f+
  • 10 of the last 11 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were rated 119+ (7/7 rated 110+)
  • 15 of the last 20 winners had their last run at the Royal Meeting

The three 3yo winners had run 5-8 times in their career, the six 4yo winners had run 9-16 times, the three 5yo's had run 12-18 times and the 6yo had run 37 times.

2) TRAINERS

  • Aiden OBrien 23 runners for 3 winners and 1 place. LSL -6.00
  • Kevin Ryan 7 runners for 0 winners and 0 place. LSL -7.00
  • Richard Fahey 6 runners for 1 winner and 1 place. LSP +15.00
  • James Fanshawe 6 runners for 1 winner and 2 places. LSP +9.00
  • Henry Candy 5 runners for 1 winner and 1 place. LSP +0.50
  • Clive Cox 4 runners for 1 winner and 0 place. LSP +1.50
  • Willie Haggas 3 runners for 0 winners and 0 place. LSL -3.00
  • David O'Meara 2 runners for 0 winners and 1 place. LSL -2.00

3) TRIALS

GOLDEN JUBILEE (ROYAL ASCOT) - SINCE 2002

75 runners. 6 winners 17 places

2017 RESULT

1ST: THE TIN MAN
2ND: TASLEET
3RD: LIMATO

COMMONWEALTH CUP (ROYAL ASCOT)

4 runners. 1 Winner 1 Place

2017 RESULT

1ST: CARAVAGGIO
2ND: HARRY ANGEL
3RD: BLUE POINT

4) THE TEN RUNNERS

BRANDO - Had a great season last year finishing second in the Wokingham, winning a Group 3 at Sandown, running second in a Group 2, returning to handicap company to win the Ayr Gold Cup before rounding his year off with a 3rd to The Tin Man in the Group 1 Sprint on Champions Day at Ascot. Started this Season with an easy win in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes but something obviously amiss when finishing stone cold last in the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes when the 5/2 favourite. He has been given a nice break and missed Ascot but that's not a problem as he has won first time up in each of the last 3 Seasons. He doesn't have a lot to find with the market leaders on his run on Champions Day and is an interesting outsider.

GROWL - Improved for the move to the Fahey stable in April 2016 as he went from a rating of 89 to 114 thanks to a 4th in the Stewards Cup, a 2nd in the Ayr Gold Cup, a 1 length 2nd to The Tin Man on Champions Day at Ascot and a Listed race win on the last day of the flat Season. Sent to Hong Kong for their big sprint last December he came home last and he has also struggled to recapture his form in three runs this year. Behind Tasleet at York, disappointing in a Group 3 at Haydock and then unseating rider in the Golden Jubilee after rearing in the stalls. Even the best of his form leaves him with a bit to find and given his current form it's hard to make a case for him.

INTISAAB - Decent sprint handicapper who picked up a couple of decent handicaps, one at the end of last Season and one at the start of this, but didn't make the necessary improvement when trying Listed company in May. He ran down the field in the Wokingham before finishing second in a weak Group 3 on the all weather at Newcastle last time out. His overall profile leaves him well short in this company and there's little chance of him taking this.

LIMATO - A versatile horse who has run over every distance from 5f-1m over the last 12 months but 6f is probably his ideal trip. He was impressive when taking this race last year when 9/2 favourite and also won a 7f Group 1 in France later that Season but things haven't really worked out for him since. After defeat when favourite in the Breeders Cup Mile and the Group 1 Sprint at Meydan he came back to form when running third in the Golden Jubilee to The Tin Man despite being a bit squeezed for room towards the finish. His jockey Ryan Moore said it made no real difference to the result but as he was only beaten a length he can't be ruled out of calculations. He is though getting a bit expensive to follow having been beaten 6 times when favourite and 8 times at 9/2 or shorter.

MR UPTON - Picked up a big pot in a sales race as a 2yo and ran some decent races at 3 including a 5th in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup but he has yet to make the frame in Group company. He ran a well beaten 9th behind The Tin Man at Ascot Champions Day and has spent this year running well in a conditions race, winning a handicap and getting beat as favourite in a couple of Listed contests. Certainly not the kind of form required to win such a competitive Group 1 sprint. Next.....

TASLEET - Classy 2yo who began his 3yo career with victory on the All Weather at Chelmsford in a Group 3 over 7f. He was then off the track for 6 months before running down the field in a Group 2 race over 7f  at Newmarket towards the end of last Season. He started out this Season running second in a Listed contest, again over 7f, but has been a revelation in two runs since having been dropped back in trip to 6f. First he took the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths and then ran a neck second in the Group 1 Golden Jubilee where he challenged strongly and pushed The Tin Man all the way to the line. There's little to separate the first 3 home in that Royal Ascot race and he should be right there at the finish once more.

THE TIN MAN - Improved rapidly after taking an Ascot handicap by over 4 lengths to run 4th in the Champions Day Sprint on his first attempt at Group company but went back last year to win the same race by a length from Growl. In between he disappointed in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot but came back this year to win that race too. He also ran second in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last Season. He began this Season running behind Tasleet in the Duke Of York Stakes but was shouldering a 5lb Group penalty that day and reversed form with that rival when winning by a neck off level weights in the Golden Jubilee last time out at Royal Ascot. Top class sprinter who is closely matched on form with the best of these but he is prone to throwing in a stinker every now and again.

Which leaves the 3yo's...

CARAVAGGIO - Unbeaten in 4 runs as a 2yo his wins included victory in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and a 4 length demolition in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. We didn't see him again until reappearing in a Group 3 for 3yo's at Naas in mid-May where he once again showed devastating speed to storm home by 4 1/2 lengths. That was a nice prep for his next start, the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, where he came through strongly in the final half furlong to get the better of Harry Angel by 3/4 length as the 5/6 favourite. This will be the first time he races against his elders but 3yo's have held their own in this race over the years and he remains a very exciting sprinting prospect from the Aiden O'Brien stable

HARRY ANGEL - Won the Group 2 Mill Reef on only his second start and began this Season unable to give 4lb to Blue Point in a Group 3 at Ascot. That's wasn't that surprising and after an impressive front running performance in a Group 2 at Haydock he re-opposed Blue Point in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Taking the race by the scruff of the neck he showed a lot of pace throughout and was 1/2 length too good for that rival but had nothing left to give when Caravaggio swept past him. With few front runners in the field here he may get an uncontested lead and it's going to be exciting to see if he can make all and hold on this time.

INTELLIGENCE CROSS - Group winner as a 2yo he ran poorly in the Juvenile Turf at the Breeders Cup where he obviously didn't stay a mile. Dropped back in distance for two Listed contests this April he wasn't really competitive in either and was given a short break before being used as a pacemaker for Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup. He matched the front running Harry Angel for 4f but couldn't go on from there and dropped out tamely to finish a well beaten 9th. A similar outcome looks likely here...

5) TIP

There are some top class sprinters around at the moment including last years impressive winner Limato, who will have everything in place for a big repeat bid, and both The Tin Man and Tasleet who beat him fair and square last time out at Royal Ascot but the 3yo sprinters look a cut above average this year and I think the race will be fought out between the two who dominated the finish in the Commonwealth Cup. It's not very original but I'll go with CARAVAGGIO confirming the form over HARRY ANGEL.

Of the outsiders I like the look of the older BRANDO whose last run can easily be forgiven and goes well coming off a break.

SELECTION: CARAVAGGIO 5/4
DANGER: HARRY ANGEL 6/1
OUTSIDER: BRANDO 33/1

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

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