The Glorious Goodwood £1m Lucky 31

I produced a Guide for Festival Trends Members that looked at 13 races that have proved strong pointers to certain races at Glorious Goodwood over the last decade or so. Using the information in the Guide I have come up with 5 horses that I'm hoping will run well this week and land us a bumper payout....

SUPERLATIVE STAKES (Newmarket July Meeting) points to the VINTAGE STAKES

4 Vintage Stakes winners since 2010 had previously run top 2 in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket but the placings aren't always confirmed with 2 of the 4 winners reversing form with their Newmarket conqueror.

No runners from the 2018 Superlative Stakes ran in that years Vintage Stakes. Zaman managed 4th and 2nd in the two races in 2017 but was no match for Expert Eye here at Glorious Goodwood. In 2016 Boynton beat War Decree in the Superlative Stakes but the placings were reversed at Glorious Goodwood in the Vintage Stakes where War Decree was first and Boynton third. Olympic Glory did the double in 2012 at 6/4 and 11/4 where Artigiano was 4th and 2nd and Luhaif 7th and 3rd in the same two races. In 2011 Chandlery was runner up in the Superlative to Red Duke but reversed form to take the Vintage Stakes as the 5/2 favourite with Red Duke only 3rd at 11/4. The 2010 winner King Torus was another Richard Hannon trained 2yo to do the Superlative – Vintage Stakes double.

Richard Hannon has a fine record in the Vintage Stakes and his runners coming on from the Superlative Stakes can usually be expected to run very well so I'm very hopeful that our bet will get off to the best possible start with the trainers recent Newmarket winner MYSTERY POWER.

PRINCESS OF WALES'S STAKES (Newmarket July Meeting) points to the GOODWOOD CUP 

It's no shock that the premier staying race of the Season, The Ascot Gold Cup, plays such a big part in the Goodwood Cup results but it is rather surprisingly that the 1m4f Princess of Wales's Stakes has also been a great guide to the race with three of the last 5 winners having done that double and Ahzeemah going so close the previous year.

In 2015 and 2016 Big Orange won the Princess of Wales (25/1 & 8/1) before winning the Goodwood Cup (6/1 & 11/4). He was following in the footsteps of Godolphin's Cavalryman who had done the same double in 2014 (9/1 & 5/1. In 2013 Ahzeemah had been another Godolphin horse to have attempted the double but had to settle for runner up in both races (13/2 & 12/1).

DASHING WILLOUGHBY won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot in June and then ran 4th in the Princess of Wales's Stakes last time out. As a 3yo he receives 15lbs from the older horses and that's something the hot favourite Stradivarius knows all about as he to had won the Queens Vase before taking full advantage of that weight for age allowance to beat the Ascot Gold Cup winner, Big Orange, in the first of his two Goodwood Cup wins. He looks an excellent each way bet.

QUEEN ANNE STAKES (Royal Ascot) points to the SUSSEX STAKES

The 1 mile Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes is the first race at Royal Ascot and has provided 5 Sussex Stakes winners (5 runner ups + 2 thirds) + 1 Lennox Stakes winner over the 13 years.

Lightning Spear was third in the 2018 Queen Anne but ran the race of his life to win that year's Sussex Stakes with the Queen Anne runner up Lord Glitters making the placings again with a Sussex Stakes third. Sudeois finished second last in the 2018 Queen Anne but ran second in that years Lennox Stakes. Ribchester got stuck in the mud in 2017 when trying to complete the double and had to settle for second place in the Sussex Stakes but Ramonti in 2007, Frankel in 2012 and Solow in 2015 have all done the Queen Anne – Sussex Stakes double since 2007. Richard Hannon's 2014 winner Toronado, 2009 winner Paco Boy and 2011 winner Canford Cliffs all ran second to a 3yo in the Sussex Stakes but in 2015 his Toormore was 4th in the Queen Anne but won the 7F Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. In 2013 Declaration of War won the Queen Anne but was only 3rd in the Sussex Stakes while Court Masterpiece went the other way by running second in the Queen Anne and winning the Sussex Stakes in 2006. In 2010 Rip Van Winkle was 6th then 2nd in those two races.

The 3yo milers look a formidable bunch this year but I'm happy to take them on with the older, more experienced LORD GLITTERS who finally bagged his first Group 1 win when taking the Queen Anne last time out and can build on that success with another solid run here. He ran 2nd and 3rd in the two races last year and looked a little unlucky not to have finished closer on both runs.

LISTED 5F STAKES (YORK John Smith's Meeting) points to the KING GEORGE STAKES

The 2018 20/1 King George runner up Take Cover had finished 5th in the York Listed Stakes race on his previous start while Muthmir ran third in both races. Mr Lupton made it a 2-3-4 in the King George having won that Listed race at York on his previous start. Take Cover was second in 2015 having finished last at York but in 2014 he won both at York and here at Glorious Goodwood.  In 2012 Masamah was third at 12/1 having run 11th of 13 at York. In 2011 the 1-2-3 at Glorious Goodwood were the 1st, 2nd and 5th at York.

According to official ratings, the York winner, COPPER KNIGHT, has a lot to find with the favourite but the rest of the field aren't separated by all that much. Although Battaash will take some beating in this Group 2 race he does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty and, of course, does have temperament issues making him liable to throw in a stinker every now and again. The selection has been in terrific form this Season and won the York race in decent style so looks another good each way bet at the prices.

THE WOKINGHAM (Royal Ascot) points to the STEWARDS CUP

14 of the last 20 winners of the Stewards Cup (Saturday) had run in the Wokingham where 12 had finished in the top half (Evens and Odds was 17/27 and 2009 winner Genki who was last). In the last 8 years the Wokingham has provided 4 winners and 11 placed horses.

I'm going to 'borrow' a horse from my Royal Ascot Horses to Follow List for the final selection. By the end of the week at Ascot the track bias had moved away from the nearside rail and was now favouring those racing down the middle of the track. GUNMETAL can usually be relied upon to run well in these big field sprints and he once again did connections proud by finishing fastest of all to lead home the far side group and finish 6th. He was quite well fancied for this race last year but only managed 11th before romping home in the St Wilfrid at Ripon next time out. After three solid runs this Season I think he'll go very well here.

MYSTERY POWER 2.25 GOODWOOD (TUESDAY) 8/1
DASHING WILLOUGHBY 3.35 GOODWOOD (TUESDAY) 25/1
LORD GLITTERS 3.35 GOODWOOD (WEDNESDAY) 10/1
COPPER KNIGHT 3.35 GOODWOOD (FRIDAY) 25/1
GUNMETAL 3.40 GOODWOOD (SATURDAY) 16/1 (5 PLACES)

EW LUCKY 31 

PLEASE, PLEASE REMEMBER - This is just a fun bet to try and win a large amount from a small stake. Glorious Goodwood is a very competitive meeting and trying to find 5 big priced winners is a very tough ask. So, please only bet what you can afford to lose!

Good luck,
Gavin

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