Unfortunately due to work commitments I can’t be at Santa Anita this weekend but I’ll be there in spirit. I’ll be putting on my Breeders Cup Baseball Cap, donning the sun-glasses and turning the missus’s sun lamp up to maximum power. It’s nacho’s and cheese for the snacks and hot-dogs for tea all washed down with some Budweiser’s. Yeehah!
So what am I backing for the Breeders?
In the Marathon I’ll be backing Henry Cecil’s FATHER TIME and hoping Eddie Ahern can do a better job than ‘Frank’ Spencer did in the Leger. I also think O’Briens Man of Iron will run well for the Exacta.
In the Fillies and Mares I’ll give you the Festival Trends data for the race……
1999 – 2008 PAST WINNERS
YEAR / COURSE/ FORM / HORSE / FLAT RUNS / AGE / WEIGHT / ODDS / TRAINER
2008 SANTA ANITA 5-13131 FOREVER TOGETHER (8) 4 8-11 11/2 J. SHEPHARD
2007 MONMOUTH PARK 12-2171 LAHUDOOD (11) 4 8-11 10/1 K. MCLAUGHLIN
2006 CHURCHILL DOWN 321512 OUIJA BOARD (20) 5 8-11 6/4F E. DUNLOP
2005 BELMONT PARK -121311 INTERCONTINENTAL (21) 5 8-11 14/1 R. FRANKEL
2004 LONE STAR PARK 13-1113 OUIJA BOARD (7) 3 8-06 10/11F E. DUNLOP
2003 SANTA ANITA 53-3613 ISLINGTON (13) 4 8-11 10/3F SIR M. STOUTE
2002 ARLINGTON PARK 301-224 STARINE (22) 5 8-11 13/1 R. FRANKEL
2001 BELMONT PARK -421122 BANKS HILL (7) 3 8-07 6/1 A. FABRE
2000 CHURCHILL DOWNS 116-112 PERFECT STING (7) 4 8-11 5/1 J. ORSENO
1999 GULFSTREAM PARK 46-151 SOARING SOFTLY (5) 4 8-11 18/5F J. TONER
AGE OF THE WINNER (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)
3yo (2-5-41) 4yo (5-7-46) 5yo (3-5-28) 6yo (0-2-5) 7yo (0-0-1)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED
Favourites finishing position: 1–5–0–4–1–1–2–1–3–7 To £1 Level Stake: +£3.34
Position of winner in market: 1–2–4–7–1–1–4–1–4–3
PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED
LED = 0 RACED PROMINENT = 12 MID-DIVISION = 5 HELP UP IN REAR = 13
AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER
| AGE | WEIGHT | POSITION LAST TIME | RUNS THAT SEASON | DAYS SINCELAST RUN | NUMBER OF CAREER RUNS | ODDS |
| 4 | 8 – 11 | 2 | 4 or 5 | 32 | 12 | 6 – 1 |
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
(RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED )
GB Bred 25 - 5 - 5
Irish Bred 20 - 1 - 4
French Bred 9 - 1 - 0
German Bred 4 - 0 - 1
USA Bred 57 - 3 - 8
CAN Bred 3 - 0 - 1
JPN Bred 1 - 0 - 0
SAF Bred 2 - 0 - 1
RECENT TRENDS
Killer stat: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 runs
Age
All 10 winners were aged 3-5yo
Betting
All of the last 10 winners returned 14/1 or less
9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
Class
All of the last 10 winners had won a Grade/Group 1 race
Distance
9 of the last 10 winners had won at 9f or further
Previous runs
All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 8 weeks
9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out (10/10 top 4)
All of the last 10 winners had run 3-7 times that season
All of the last 9 winners had run at least 7 times in their career
Interesting Fact: No frontrunner has even made the frame in the last 10 years.
The trends for the race make it very hard for me not to go with Henry’s horse again so it’s MIDDAY to win from Magical Fantasy.
For the supporting races I will go with;
Juvenile Fillies Turf: LILLIE LANGTRY
Juvenile Fillies: DEVIL MAY CARE
Fillies & Mares Sprint: VENTURA
Ladies Classic: CARELESS JEWEL
In fact I think I’ll also do 3 doubles and an each way treble on Henry’s 3 horses over the two days’s. That’s Father Time, Midday and Twice Over.
As always I’ll leave it to you as to whether you back them, lay them or ignore them!
————
HORSE RACE PROFILES
I would imagine most of you have seen the HRP Guides that David Peat compiles as I gave his flat version out as a freebie at the end of September. If you haven’t and would like to take a look simply click here >>>> 2009 Flat Horse Race Profiles
That particular flat guide performed very well this Summer with his optimum horses producing 20 winners from 108 runners for a level stakes profit of over 45 points. That’s good tipping in anyone’s book.
The good news is that he has produced a NH version and it is now on sale for just £77…
http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=4&i=l0
So what do you get for your money? Quite a lot actually….
1. The National Hunt book
2. The AW book
(both books combined have over 200 profiles)
3. A daily report on runners from the books - showing their profiles for the days race
4. A weekly review - highlighting new horses to follow
5. Occassional big race reviews
All for less than £13 a month!
Which looks great value for a great product. Available here >>>> http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=4&i=l0
——
FRIDAY FUN
I was going to put up Arazi again winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile but instead I’ve gone with the unluckiest horse ever to run in a Breeders Cup race…..Dayjur. Darn shadows!
(Sorry about the quality of the video)
Good luck,
Gavin.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:06 am
You gave Peats flat version out as a freebie at the end of Sept.I bet that got people rushing to buy it,as he tipped six losers out of six
His claims of 48 pts profit is dubious as the 25/1 winner he tipped could only be backed if yon were on course as the going changed.If you put your bets on b4 going to work you wouldnt have been on
However,clains at the start of the season of 160 pts profit were well off target.
This is a well written and well researched product.I have known Peats work for a lot longer than Matt and Gavin and although he is very genuine he falls short on making significant profit.His work is best used as another guide.You will need to use your own judjement alongside it.
Cheers Roddo
November 6th, 2009 at 10:11 am
seems to me that Roddo knows a thing or two about the author of HRP and studdied the actual publication.
I wonder if the folk pushing the same publication are doing their members no favours in that respect, and are only out to wrest a few more of our hard earned £/$/euros for their own coffers.
regards
Morton
November 6th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
I agree with roddo regarding David Peats claims. I do use it only as a guide, and i would have thought ANYONE worth his salt as a serious punter would do the same. ALL stats, even one’s by Matt & Gavin should be used ONLY as guides or possibly confirmation of your own stats/research. I’m sure both chaps would agree.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
i do not use it, even as a guide!!!
November 9th, 2009 at 9:21 am
The comments made above are correct. Any and all stats should be used as a guide and nothing more; your own judgement should always take precedent over stats.
I say this as someone who has just released a stats/trends based national hunt book - Narrowing the Field - and have also used Gavin & Matt’s stats to aid my own betting in the past (and will continue to do so).
Stats are a great way to ‘Narrow the Field’ however as a previous poster mentioned, any serious or semi-serious punter should only use them as a guide rather than gospel.
Keep up the great work Gavin.
November 16th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Horse race profiles is a well researched and very informative guide that MADE A PROFIT this flat season.
Even if you take out the 25/1 winner it still made 23pts clear profit. How many other systems/guides can boast that figure this flat season? Not very many I would reckon.
Use it as a guide, back the selections David puts up or don’t buy it at all- it’s up to you what you want to do.
But it made a profit which can’t be denied and that is why I am happy to endorse this product.
Gavin.