Super Stats & Simple Systems

1 SIMPLE SYSTEM

TRACK LAST TIME OUT

RULES:

  • All Ascot races over 6f - 1mile
  • Had it's last run at the Curragh
  • Ran in the last Month (31 days)
  • Finished Top 3 last time out

RESULTS:

16 winners from 57 runners (28%) for a Level Stakes Profit of +£120.12
Profit for each of the last 6 Royal Ascots

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
2016 11 5 45% 28.36 5 45%
2015 9 2 22% 18.53 4 44%
2014 9 3 33% 2.73 5 56%
2013 10 2 20% 16.5 4 40%
2012 10 2 20% 45 2 20%
2011 8 2 25% 9 2 25%

2 TRAINER SYSTEMS

JOHN GOSDEN

  • 5F - 1M4F races
  • Carrying 8-09 - 9-04
  • Top 4 last time out
  • Ignore his 3yo runners

10 winners from 26 runners and a LSP of +£62.50
Nice profits in 5 of the last 6 years

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
2016 5 1 20% 16 2 40%
2015 5 2 40% 6.75 4 80%
2014 5 2 40% 12.5 2 40%
2013 5 0 0% -5 2 40%
2012 5 4 80% 20.25 4 80%
2011 1 1 100% 12 1 100%

SIR MICHAEL STOUTE

  • 1M4F or further
  • 3 & 4yo's
  • 12/1 or under

10 winners from 26 runners and a LSP of +£42.50
At least 1 winner and profits in each of the last 5 years

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
2016 6 2 33% 13 3 50%
2015 4 1 25% 9 1 25%
2014 4 2 50% 2.5 3 75%
2013 7 3 43% 15 5 71%
2012 2 2 100% 6 2 100%
2011 3 0 0% -3 2 67%

 


3 REASONS TO BACK

.....RIBCHESTER IN THE QUEEN ANNE (TUESDAY)

  • He's the top rated runner in the field (as were 5 of the last 7)
  • The current 2nd and 3rd favourites are both 6yo's (since the race was first run in 1980 every winner has been aged 3-5yo)
  • He demolished the field when winning the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out (THE #1 Trial for the Queen Anne)

......ZHUI FENG IN THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (WEDNESDAY)

  • He's run in the 3 most informative trials for this race:- The Britannia, The Cambridgeshire and the Spring Cup
  • He's a 4yo (as were 7 of the last 10 winners) who finished top 4 last time out (as did the last five 4yo winners) that is rated 100+ (as were 6 of the last 9)
  • He finished third over an inadequate trip behind the current race favourite last time out at Ascot and will be 8lb better off for a length beating

......DARTMOUTH IN THE HARDWICKE STAKES (SATURDAY)

  • His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has won this race 7 times in the last 10 years he's had a runner including the last 3 renewals
  • Like the previous 2 winners, he comes into the race following a win over a trip further than 1m5f (2015 winner also won the Yorkshire Cup on his last run)
  • His record in Group 2 and Group 3 company over 1m4f+ is 1111

4 RACE STATS

COVENTRY STAKES (TUESDAY)

  • Every winner since 2001 also won their last start at odds of 4/1 or lower

ASCOT STAKES (TUESDAY)

  • National Hunt trainers have won 9 of the last 10 runnings with horses aged 5yo+ that were rated 85-95

QUEENS VASE (FRIDAY)

  • Only 4 trainers have won this race this century:- Aiden O'Brien (5 times), Mark Johnston (7), Sir Michael Stoute (3) & Saeed Bin Suroor (2)

DUKE OF EDINBURGH (FRIDAY)

  • Every winner since 1999 has been aged 4 or 5yo. Those aged 6 and above are 0 from 60 in the same period

5 SUPER LAYS

1 from 100

In the last 6 years only 1 claiming jockey (3lbs) has won a race at Royal Ascot - From 100 rides!

1 from 63

Handicap runners that had their last start on the All-Weather are just 1 win from 63 runners since 2011

0 from 64

Horses that had their last run at Windsor are 0 wins (8 places) from 64 such runners over the last 6 years

0 from 61

Michael Bell (31) and Luca Cumani (30) have seen all their runners since 2011 get beat at Royal Ascot. These 61 losers include 18 last time out winners and 15 horses at 8/1 or shorter.

0 from 23

Since 2011 there have been 23 horses to have run in a Group 1 race that were stepping up from handicap company and all have lost


I will be publishing all the runners the systems point to and any lay horses the stats throw up in the Festival Trends Members Area all next week.

Good luck,
Gavin.

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