Today I’ll be continuing my preview of the feature races for next weeks Royal Ascot meeting with a look at the top 3yo milers.
The St. James Palace Stakes is a race that traditionally brings together the runners that have competed in the Newmarket, Irish and French Guineas. This years race is no exception with winners and placed horses from all three races set to do battle. The winner next Tuesday looks set for the bragging rights as the seasons top 3yo miler.
Amazingly Aiden O’Brien has won 6 of the last 1o renewals and he’s set his stall out to win it again this year as 5 of the 15 horses currently declared are trained by him. But what are his chances?
For this race the best place to start is always those races I mentioned earlier as 13 of the last 14 winners of the St James Palace Stakes had finished in the top 4 of a European Guineas. In fact the last horse to have won the St James Palace stakes without a run in a Group 1 race that season was Shavian way back in 1990.
This years Guineas results were….
2010 Newmarket Guineas
1st Makfi
2nd Dick Turpin
3rd Canford Cliffs
4th Xtension
2010 Irish Guineas
1st Canford Cliffs
2nd Free Judgement
3rd Viscount Nelson
4th Steinbeck
2010 French Guineas
1st Lope De Vega
2nd Dick Turpin
3rd Shamalgan
4th Buzzword
It definitely pays to follow the Guineas form in this race and if we look at where winners of the St James’s Palace had finished in the respective Guineas we see the following: Newmarket: 2123415, Curragh: 21102111 and Longchamp: 1614.
The record of winners from the Newmarket 2000 Guineas is: 1451, Irish 2000 Guineas: 611071511, French 2000 Guineas: 16225135, German 2000 Guineas: 435 but it’s worth bearing in mind that since 1999 four of the last five beaten favourites were Guineas winners. Also, seven winners in that period had run in both the Newmarket and Irish Guineas (where four had made the frame in both).
If we look for these horses amongst the 15 declared for next weeks race I think it leaves us with- Makfi, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Free Judgement, Viscount Nelson and Steinbeck.
What is interesting is that no winner in the last 13 years has come direct from Newmarket to win at Ascot so this must count against Makfi. Also no horse in the last 11 years has won this race having run more than 9 times in their career so Free Judgement is looking a little over-raced.
All of which reduces our shortlist to 4: Canford Cliffs, Viscount Nelson, Steinbeck and Dick Turpin
I’ll be waiting for the race declarations before making my final decision as the draw plays a big part in this race. It’s run on the round course and only one horse in the last 14 years has managed to defy a high draw i.e. within 2 of the highest stall number. The last thing to remember is that outsiders don’t usually win this race as 8/1 is the biggest priced winner since 1997.
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Scoop 6
I forgot to mention yesterday that our 20 lottery lines went down on Saturday night meaning the syndicate fund is now depleted. If the fund starts to roll over again I’ll think about setting up another attempt.
In the meantime if anyone wants to join a syndicate for the Scoop6 there is the site I have mentioned before to consider. They actually won the Scoop6 last Saturday (along with 10 other people) and now have the chance to go for the £50,000 Bonus Fund this week.
You can check them out at www.iScooped6.co.uk
(I have no association with this site and make no money if you decide to join any of their syndicates. I’m simply advising that the site is there if you’re looking for a regular Scoop6 syndicate)
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Bonus Ball Bet
I’ve started the BBB up again and managed to get £20 in the prizefund last Saturday when Judge ‘N Jury just held on for 4th place in the Epsom Dash. I’ll be having 1 bet a day next week at Ascot in an attempt to boost this figure further.
Full details can be found by clicking on the BBB Tab on the top menu or you can simply send your number (1-49) to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk (there was a slight problem with this email address immediately after I gave it out last time but it’s working fine now.)
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And finally, don’t forget about our 2 publications for next week…
1) The 144 page trends guide covering all 30 races
Available now from: http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php
and
2) Gary’s Tipping Guide which also covers all 30 races.
Available from: http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/
Good luck,
Gavin.