Probably the hardest of the 3 group 1 races this weekend with so many potentially high class fillies and lots of unexposed maiden winners, further complicated by Aiden O’Brien having 6 declared runners. Let’s see if we can narrow the field down a bit…..
Firstly, I think we can safely knock out Ice Queen who was a well beaten favourite in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (only 1 winner of this race has gone on to Oaks Glory in the last decade). The winner and 2nd in that race also line up on Friday but I can’t see the form of that race being good enough to win an above average looking Oaks…so goodbye Miracle Seeker and Look Here also.
The other Trial race that I can’t see being strong enough to provide this years Oaks winner is the Cheshire Oaks. The race itself is a poor guide to the Oaks with only 2 winners from the past 57 runnings and I can’t see this years winner Sail or runner-up Sugar Mint bucking that trend.
Of the other O’Brien ladies, stable jockey ‘group 1 Johnny’ has chosen Adored. This filly won a group 3 race at Naas last time where she beat stablemate Tiffany Diamond by 1 3/4 lengths. The trouble with this form is that Tiffany Diamond had previously been beaten in a 50-75 handicap and is only rated 73. Even allowing for the fact that fillies can show vast improvement in form at this time of year I think it takes a big leap of faith to believe either one of these two will win the Oaks.
Chinese White and Katiyra strike me as two very similar fillies. Both come from a top stable, both with big reputations and both inexperienced with masses of potential. Chinese White, unbeaten and still green when winning a listed race by over 4 lengths looks the likelier of the two for me. The wily Weld immediately nominated the Irish Oaks as the likely next target but has had a change of mind (not for the first time) and decided to run her at Epsom. I just feel that this race may come to soon in her career and will reluctantly look elsewhere.
The race that seems to hold the key to the Oaks is the Musidora. Won in very impressive fashion by Lush Lashes, she seemed to relish the step up in distance and will be very hard to beat on Friday. I cannot see how any of the horses that finished behind her can possibly reverse the form such was the manner of her victory and will therefore put a line through both Cape Amber and another O’Brien runner Moonstone. On the down side, the last 7 winners of the Musidora have all been beaten at Epsom (though 5 have been placed and the 2006 runner-up went onto Oaks glory). The going may also be against her as her two wins have been on Good/Firm and her worst run came on her reappearance this year on soft going.
This just leaves one O’Brien runner left, and to me, also the most interesting. Savethisdanceforme ran in both English and Irish Guineas but I don’t think she appreciated the firm ground on either occasion and has shown most of her best form with a bit of give in the ground. O’Brien horses that contested the Irish 1000 Guineas have always performed very well in the Oaks (Imagine, Shahtoush, Yesterday, Quarter Moon and Peeping Fawn all ran in both races) and I am expecting a big run from this one. The step up in trip should help her and at around 50/1 is a live outsider.
The Irish definitely have a stranglehold on this years Oaks with over half the field and 4 of the top 5 in the betting. The lowest priced British horse is currently Clowance. She won the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial, a race not traditionally seen as a very good indicator for Epsom. However, she beat a 107 rated filly in some style, is obviously improving and will love the ground. She should run a big race and is one for the shortlist.
The unbeaten filly Saphira’s Fire won her trial at Newmarket but the Pretty Polly Stakes is probably one of the worst guides to the Oaks of all the trials. Only Ouija Board has done the double out of the last 8 to have tried and I think it’s safe to say that Saphira’s Fire is no Ouija Board! She’s not for me.
Which just leaves Michita. The John Gosden trained filly absolutely bolted up at Goodwood last time in the Height of Fashion Stakes (previously the Lupe stakes). She won by 4 1/2 lengths and went straight into my notebook as a likely winner of the Oaks. She handled Goodwood’s downhill finish well, quickened up immediately when asked and will go on the ground. Barring accidents, she looks nailed on for the frame.
Selection: Michita
Danger: Lush Lashes
Each Way: Savethisdanceforme
That just leaves the Derby and I’ll be posting my review of the big race later.
Good luck all.