Royal Ascot: Watch or Wary?

The Royal Ascot types to watch out for....

1) Horses that last ran in a Graded NH race at one of the 3 main Spring Festivals (i.e. Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown)

  • 4 winners at 20/1, 12/1, 5/1 and 12/1 plus 2 places at 4/1 and 33/1 from 11 runners since 2010 (LSP +42pts)
  • Runners finished 16820112801

2) Horses that finished Top 3 last time out in a Group 1 race and are now running in either Listed or Group 3

  • 5 winners from just 10 runners in the last 5 years for a LSP of +33.50pts
  • 4 of the 5 winners came in the 7f Jersey Stakes from just 8 such runners

3) Ryan Moore riding for Aiden O'Brien outside of Group company

  • In the last 5 years the 12 Ryan Moore/Aiden O'Brien runners outside of Group company have finished 194111234110
  • 6 winners and 2 places from 12 runners with a LSP of +21.73pts

And the Royal Ascot types to be wary of.....

1) French Bred's running in Royal Ascot handicaps

  • Since 2003 all 62 French Bred horses running in a Royal Ascot handicap have been beaten (just 7 placed)
  • These 62 losers include 10 last time out winners and 15 at odds of 12/1 or less
  • 18 of the losers were in the Ascot Stakes

2) Horses running at Royal Ascot having run in the previous 3 days

  • No winners and just 3 places from the 27 to have tried since 2003
  • Including 21 losers who had run already at the meeting (all 3 places came from these types)

3) Horses running in Royal Ascot handicaps having had their last start in a maiden

  • No winners and 10 places from 56 runners since 2008
  • 45 of these 56 losers had won the maiden on their last start
  • 48 of these 56 losers were in 3yo only races
  • 18 of these 56 losers were at odds of 12/1 or less

4) Horses ridden by claiming jockeys over distances of 1m or further

  • No winners and just 5 places from 78 rides since 2008
  • 39 of the 78 losers were aged 3yo
  • 21 of the 78 losers won last time out
  • All 12 7lb claimers finished unplaced

A couple of 2yo's for Royal Ascot..

At the start of the flat Season I began a service that focused on the 2yo races. It's been going along quite nicely with a few decent winners over the last 2 months and a small profit at SP so far. There are a number of horses on the list that will be seen in better light once the 2yo handicaps begin next month but a couple of them look very good and should be heading to Royal Ascot next week.

The entries for the Ascot 2yo races haven't been made yet but these 2 juveniles are the ones I'll be looking out for when they are published. It would have been 3 but Michael Bell ruled his filly Main Desire out of the Queen Mary next week because of a training setback....

KODITIME - He looked like he knew his job when winning first time up on good to firm at Doncaster at the end of April and the way he finished off his race you can't blame his trainer Clive Cox for trying him over 6f on his next start. That was at Newbury in a very competitive class 2 conditions race on soft ground where for much of the race he travelled like the winner and moved up strongly at the 2f pole. His challenge fizzled out through the final furlong and he finished third to the unbeaten Hannon 2yo Denaar. That one is well fancied for the Coventry but on this showing I think Koditime will swerve a rematch in that race and head for either the Windsor Castle (14/1) or the Norfolk Stakes over the shorter 5f.

RED ROMAN (C. Hills) - He was very green on his debut over 5f at Newmarket in early May but looked just the sort to improve for the run. He returned to Newmarket 11 days later to contest a 6f maiden where he made all to record a very comfortable win as a well backed favourite. Such was the manner of his win I'm very surprised that he hasn't even been quoted for any of the Royal Ascot 2yo races yet. That may be an oversight on the part of the bookmakers (although he's quoted at 23 on the betfair exchange) and I'll be looking for his name among the 6f Coventry or even the 7f Chesham entries.

By the way, the horse Red Roman beat when winning his maiden was another eyecatcher who made his name onto the list and has been the one horse I've been most looking forward to seeing run again. He runs in the 2.00 Salisbury today and I'll be hoping INITIATIVE can provide a form boost for his Newmarket conqueror.

UPDATE: Initiative duly won and then the 6th home from the race at Newmarket, Simply Breathless, went and won Division II of the maiden. That was a great form boost for Red Roman and prompted a couple of bookmakers to introduce him into the Coventry betting at 25/1.

Good luck,
Gavin

DAILYNAGra

At Royal Ascot this year I'll be producing the popular Daily Nag email for all Trends Subscribers.

It will list all the Trends Selections, the Top Rated runners and any Highway 50 Ante-Post bets that are running each day. In addition I will also include any system qualifiers from today's and yesterday's blog posts along with any Lay horses flagged up by the stat 'negatives'.

Daily Nag subscribers can also look forward to Placepot Perms, daily updates and notification of any fancies my brother, Gary, has for Ascot each day (these are also available FREE from the Tipsters Review site)

And finally, I'll highlight my 4 best bets of the day from that days selections for a Lucky 15 bet.

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*Daily Nag Email sent out 9pm the night before.
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