Newmarket Craven Meeting

The three Aintree Posts I did a couple of weeks ago proved highly popular and also very profitable with the Tizzard System winning 3.5pts, The Uttoxeter system winning +3.25pts (two places at 25/1), both horses I highlighted from last years meeting winning at 5/2 and 14/1  and all 6 Nicholls handicappers finishing out of the frame.

The Henderson handicap system had 2 places from 4 runners but lost 4pts overall. Vieux Lion Rouge didn't get the better ground he requires but still managed a creditable 9th in the National although that wasn't quite good enough for each way betting purposes.

Still it was a good meeting and as these profits were all at SP you should have made a lot more as much bigger prices were available for those willing to shop around.

Highlight of the week for me was Lalor winning on Friday. He finally got the fast run race he's been crying out for and by keeping the faith I got my 50th birthday Summer holiday paid for! Happy days.

So, after the success of those Aintree Posts I thought I'd have a similar go at the Newmarket Craven Meeting....

THREE TRAINERS WORTH NOTING

Over the last 5 years at the Newmarket Craven meeting three trainers have managed strike rates above 25% while showing a level stakes profit.

1) JOHN GOSDEN

15 winners from 55 runners (27%) and a LSP of +15.09

  • All of his winners were 12/1 or less
  • 14 of his 15 winners were 3yo's
  • 12 of his 15 winners finished top 3 last time out
  • His record with debutants at this meeting is 2 wins from 21 runners (-8.17pts)

Back his 3yo's with a top 3 finish last time out who are 12/1 or shorter for: 

12 winners from 24 runners (50%) and a LSP of 28.93pts

2) SAEED BIN SUROOR

7 winners from 26 runners (27%) and a LSP of +12.75

  • All 7 of his winners were 8/1 or shorter
  • 6 of his 7 winners were aged 3yo
  • 5 of his 7 winners were in class 4 company
  • All 6 of his Group runners have been beaten
  • All 4 runners that had raced in the UK already that Season have been beaten

Forget Group races and back those without a UK run so far this Season at 8/1 or shorter for:

7 winners from 13 runners (54%) and a LSP of 25.75pts

3) KEVIN RYAN

5 winners from 19 runners (26%) and a LSP of +12.25

  • All 5 of his winners came over 5f or 6f
  • All 5 of his winners were 4 or 5yo's (all 3 of his 2yo runners were placed)
  • All 5 of his winners were male
  • All 5 of his winners had raced at least 6 times

Backing all his runners that satisfy those 4 criteria would have given you:

5 winners from 6 runners and a LSP of +25.25pts


RACE POINTERS

FREE HANDICAP (Wednesday 2.25pm)

Runners from the Horris Hill running in the Free Handicap are 4 wins and 3 places from 11 runners

4 times between 2000 and 2008 the Free Handicap winner came direct from the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes (Newbury) run at the end of the previous Season although all 4 Horris Hill runners since 2009 have been beaten in the Free Handicap.

NEBO won last Season's Horris Hill Stakes.

ABERNANT STAKES (Thursday 3.00pm)

5 of the last 20 Abernant Stakes winners previously ran in the Listed Cammidge Trophy at Doncater

All 5 winners and all 7 placed horses had finished Top 5 although all 8 winners to have run in the Abernant Stakes have finished unplaced

2018 Cammidge Trophy result: 

1st: Perfect Pasture 4/1JF 2nd: Mr Lupton 6/1 3rd: Ice Age 8/1

CRAVEN STAKES (Thursday 3.35pm)

Horses that last ran at Newmarket have won 11 of the last 21 Craven Stakes (+8 places) from just 43 such runners. They show a LSP of 28.23pts.

JUST BRILLIANT won a Newmarket maiden at the end of last Season
THUNDERHOOVES finished last of 15 in a Newmarket maiden at the end of last Season


FOLLOWING OVER A CLIFF...

Much like Lalor at Aintree I'm going to give another chance to a horse who's proving expensive to follow but really ought to be heading back to the winners enclosure sometime soon.

Donncha is proving difficult to win with but has a long record of being placed in top handicaps. He's been a bit disappointing since around this time last year and was gelded during the Winter. His comeback run in the Lincoln wasn't quite as good as I had hoped but another drop down the ratings sees him now racing off his lowest mark since June 2015.

That's an awful lot of negatives I know but I've followed him this far and I'm not going to give up on him (just yet) as that current mark of 94 (was 3rd off 100 in last years Lincoln) means surely he must win soon. Hopefully that will be today but with Skybet paying a very generous 5 places on this 14 runner handicap a place will do just fine....

DONNCHA 5.20 Newmarket (Each way 16/1 Skybet 1/5 odds first 5)

Good luck,
Gavin.

TUESDAY

Gosden qualifiers: JAWWAAL 2.25, MSAYYAN 4.45
Ryan qualifiers: MAJOR JUMBO 5.55 WON 7/2
Selection: DONNCHA 5.20 PLACED 16/1

WEDNESDAY

Gosden qualifiers: NAWASSI 3.35, CASEY JONES 5.55
Ryan qualifiers: MONT KIARA 1.50 (EW)
Selection: NEBO 2.25

THURSDAY

Gosden qualifiers: ROARING LION 3.35 PLAYFUL SPIRIT 4.10 ARGENTELLO 4.45
Saeed Bin Suroor: MILITARY BAND 2.25 BEDOUIN'S STORY 4.45
Selections: JUST BRILLIANT 3.35

PERFECT PASTURE ?? (Abernant Winner) 3.00 THUNDERHOOVES ?? (200/1 No hoper) 3.35

 

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