since I last posted due to a combination of food poisoning, cancelled trains, Gary’s birthday, school holiday’s and two trips to Devon in the space of 4 days. But I’m back now and I should be able to string a few posts together this week before shooting off again at the weekend to play in the Amateur Poker Championships in Nottingham. I’m really looking forward to that and will post a website address later in the week for anyone wanting to track my progress in the tournament.

That’s all to come but today I’m going to have a look back at the main talking points from last week……

Sariska

I didn’t back her and with Midday winning I didn’t lose any money on the race so it’s probably easier for me to say this but bookmakers were quite right in not refunding stakes on Sariska. She went in the stalls, she came under orders and then decided not to race, simple as that. The horse wasn’t interfered with in anyway and the stalls opened normally. She just couldn’t be bothered to run and if you backed her you lost your money just as if you back a horse that falls or pulls itself up. You have to draw the line somewhere as to when a horse is deemed a runner and ‘under starters orders’ is the correct and obvious place. Just because Paddy Power, who are never shy at promoting their business no matter the cost, refunded stakes on her doesn’t mean it was the right decision.  Remember, if the stakes were refunded on Sariska this would mean a Rule 4 deduction for all those who backed Midday and that certainly wouldn’t have been fair.

Sole Power

It’s results like these that question whether there’s any point in form study. You might as well stick a pin in the paper sometimes. Two wins on the Dundalk all weather track and completely stuffed everytime he’d been raced in Group company isn’t form you look for when sorting out a Group 1 race. If I’d have had 12 picks in the race he’d have been my 13th choice! Okay, Equiano got bumped and Starspangledbanner needs a minimum of 6 furlongs but even without those two in the race he’d have been a 100/1 chance and rightly so. I’ll personally be putting it down as a freak result and won’t be rushing to back him next time out, no matter where he goes.

Trainers Championship

After Rip Van Winkle’s win in the International Stakes last week Aiden O’Brien has forced himself into contention for this years trainers championship which for all intents and purposes is now a 3 ‘horse’ race between Stoute, Hannon and O’Brien. The Championship is decided on win and place prizemoney earned throughout the season and Sir Michael Stoute has so far amassed £2,583,685 to lead his two rivals by £99,429 and £268,800 respectively. With Sir Michael Stoute’s main horses Harbinger and Workforce out for the count and Zacinto having lost the plot it’s difficult to see where the reigning champ will find the necessary ammunition to maintain his lead. Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Paco Boy along with a stable full of 2yo talent will ensure Richard Hannon’s challenge will be a strong and sustained one. There are plenty of big prizes still to play for this season and with quite a few very valuable 2yo sales races coming up it’s not hard to see why the bookies make Hannon an odds on shot to win the Trainers Championship. Unsurprisingly, Stan James’s offer of 11-10 yesterday didn’t last long and the best odds now available is their 8-11. That still looks good to me….

Pathfork

After Saturday’s Futurity romp Pathfork is now the 8/1 second favourite for next years 2000 Guineas but I can’t help thinking that if he were trained by a certain Aiden O’Brien he would be a lot shorter than that. For me, he’s the best 2yo seen out this season and Jessica Harrington will do well to hold on to him as I’m sure Sheikh Mohammed has already got the cheque book out for a horse he bred. He’s now won a maiden at the Curragh, of which past winners include Teofilio, New Approach and Sea The Stars, and the Group 2 Futurity which has a recent roll of honour that includes St Jovite, Giant’s Causeway, Hawk Wing, Teofilo, New Approach and Cape Blanco. The horse he beat on Saturday was the same horse that split Zoffany and Strong Suit in the Phoenix Stakes and as he beat him more convincingly than Zoffany did the form is rock solid. With the exception of Mafki all recent 2000 Guineas winners had seen a racecourse by now and for me Pathfork is the one they all have to beat. I just hope Godolphin don’t buy him, ship him to Dubai and ruin his chances of Newmarket glory!

American Grade 1 turf horses

If ever you needed confirmation on just how poor the best American turf horses are compared to their European counterparts it was given in the Arlington Million on Saturday. That their best turf horse Gio Ponti could get beat by Debussy illustrates the gap in class between the two continents. I take nothing away from William Buick, who rode a perfect race to nail the US champ close home, but even he would be hard pressed to think Debussy was anything other than a half decent Group 2/3 performer in Europe. He was 25/1 and well beaten behind Byword in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot and again beaten in a Group 2 behind Summit Surge at York. His form is a long way behind the best on these shores yet was still able to put the best America can muster firmly in his place. The Breeders Cup Turf looks to be European bound yet again…

I’ll be back tomorrow with a brief look at my betting failures last week,

Good luck,
Gavin.

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