It’s taken a bit longer than I thought to get around to writing up the second part of my look at in-running betting but here it is. Better late than never. And if you missed the first part you can read it by scrolling down through the last few posts or by clicking here>>>>PART 1
I’ve already covered the basics and if you’ve not been put off and want to try your hand at the highly volatile world of in-running trading here’s a more advanced look at the strategies involved along with a few ideas on how to get an edge over your fellow traders………
ADVANCED STRATEGIES
Although there are some bookmakers who offer limited in-running betting markets to their customers you do tend to find the majority of in-running betting is done on the exchanges. Here you are basically betting against another trader and pitting your opinion against theirs.
And it’s in this basic understanding of how the exchanges work that lies the key to successful in-running trading. You need to find an edge, an advantage over your fellow traders and you need to be quick enough to take advantage of it.
In a horse race things happen so fast that you need to be ready to strike as soon as this advantage becomes available. Ideally you should open a betting box for each horse as soon as the race starts and be ready to trade in one click if you wish to bet a particular runner (but remember to get out quick if your odds aren’t matched immediately).
You also need to be aware that you are betting on events that have already taken place (albeit a second or two ago) and therefore someone else may know something you do not! Watching the race via satellite gives a slight delay in the transmission of ‘live’ pictures and what you see isn’t actually ‘as it happens’.You can of course use this to your advantage and be the one who is in the know by visiting the track to watch the racing. If you have an eye for watching the horses and quick enough fingers it’s possible to lay those fallers before everyone else watching on TV get the chance to cancel their bets.
Now as I said in Part 1 I’m no expert at in-running betting, and this may or may not be true, but I do remember reading once that the order in which Betfair matches peoples bets are by allocating those seeking the smallest odds the biggest price and vice versa when matching lay bets. So if you submit a request to back a horse at 1.5 and someone at the same time asks for 1.6 on that same horse you would be matched first with the highest odds available. It certainly sounds feasible and it’s worth remembering when trying to hoover up somebody else’s rick in the market.
Okay, so how do we go about finding an edge?
- Do your homework and be prepared
If you’re going to be serious about in-running betting then you need to put in the hours studying to find an edge or at least to have the same knowledge as all the other traders do.
With the 60 racecourses throughout Great Britain all providing a different test for a horse’s ability it’s important to know the configuration of the track you’re intending to bet at and how it could affect your horse’s chances. A horse that is 10 lengths clear over the final fence at Taunton is a totally different prospect to one that is 10 lengths clear jumping the last at Cartmel. Why so? Well, if you look at the distance between the last obstacle and the finishing line at the two courses you’ll see that while it’s only 150 yards at Taunton, over at Cartmel the horses still have another 4 furlongs to race before they reach the Winning Post. And a lot can happen in 4 furlongs! While 1/10 might be a good bet at the Somerset track you may need to re-consider those odds when betting further North in Cumbria.
Or how about the direction of the track, is it left-handed or right? Are there any runners that hang badly going a certain way? Does this course favour front runners? e.g. Newton Abbot / Chester or those that are held up? e.g. Epsom, Newmarket. Is there a hill to climb at the end of the race? What’s the going?
All these things need to be considered and while, of course, there are plenty of other variables to add into the mix, it does show the type of in-depth knowledge you need to bring to the table before getting seriously involved with in-running trading.
- DRAW BIAS
A subject that has cropped up a number of times in recent posts and one that can be used to your advantage when betting in-running.
If there are a number of sprints on a race-card or at a particular meeting it’s important to study the way these races are run. Sometimes you will see that when the field splits into two groups that the advantage may change from the near side to the far side (or vice versa) during the course of a race. Armed with this knowledge you can back or lay runners at various times during a later race as the draw bias switches over from one side to the other (and sometimes back again).
RUNNING STYLES
It’s important to realise that not all horses run the same way. Some need to run from the front while others need to be covered up at the back of the field and the beauty of in-running betting is that you can see just how your horse is going to run straight after the stalls have opened. Before betting in-running became available you paid your money and took your chance but now if you want to back a front runner you can actually wait and see what the jockey intends to do. If he decides to restrain it then you have the option of waiting for another day but if he gets an early front running postition then it’s time to get your money on. Look at Som Talaearlier in the season, I wrote quite a few times in posts that when he was allowed to front run he’d be worth backing and after being held up in both the Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes he was finally given the lead in the Northumberland Plate and led all the way for a 16/1 victory.
Some horses like big fields while others just don’t like crowds and prefer fewer runners. An example of this is Thebes who always seems to run, and is usually quite well fancied, in these big field handicaps. He races up with the pace and usually trades at or below his starting price for most of the race BUT his form figures when racing in fields of more than 20 runners reads 22nd, 10th, 22nd, 27th, 18th, 13th, 16th, 12th. He just doesn’t seem to like being crowded at the business end of the race andif you want further proof take a look at his form figures when racing in fields of less than 10 runners - 21171231. The information is out there but you may have to look deep to find it.
You also need to look out for the horses who seem to travel easily in their races but find little when under pressure or those that are vigorously ridden throughtout a race but keep responding to the riders urgings.
Jockey styles are the same. We’ve all seen McCoy and Fallon pushing hard on horses from a long way out but still win and conversely we’ve all seen Paul Carberry and Timmy Murphy sit motionless on a horse only to find little when push comes to shove and get beat.
These are just a few of the things you should be looking at if you’re think of giving in running trading a go. It isn’t easy but with a bit of hard work and by doing some research it can be a very profitable way of betting.
And remember the 3 key points you need to make it a profitable exercise: Research, Speed and Concentration.
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NH FESTIVAL TRENDS
We’ve got our first FREE NH guide out this weekend and it’s for the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Once the 24 hour declarations are known we’ll put the finishing touches to the data andget it ready for download in the Members Area. This should be around 7pm on Friday.
I’ll send an email reminder to all subscribers as soon as it’s available.
For those of you who don’t subscribe to the Flat Festival Trends you’ll be glad to know that we’ve had a fairly good last two weeks with 14/1 winner Twice Over and 4/1 High Heeled on Saturday. We were also a bit unlucky with our Horris Hill selection (and top rated horse) Pleasant Day who just got touched off on the line at 16/1. Let’s hope we can keep it going now we revert back over the jumps….
Good luck,
Gavin.