Now before I start I must warn everyone that I am no expert at In-Running betting and I have done very little of it over the years. I’ve read a lot of articles on the subject and have watched many, many Betfair markets in this time but I’ve never seriously delved into the in-running trading business.
I was working on a system whereby you would seek to lay every runner in a race at odds-on (and hope to get matched on at least two to guarantee a profit) but although the early results were good in the end it was all very hit and miss. When I get a bit more time I may try again and see what type of race it works best on but, until then, here’s a bit about what I’ve learnt on the subject…..
For the purposes of this post I will be concentrating solely on horse-racing in-running betting. I’m sure there are a lot of serious traders out there reading this (please feel free to post any tips/comments) but they’ll have to excuse me as I’m going to start with the basics for the benefit of those readers who have yet to try in-running betting. There’s quite a bit to get through so I’ll split it into three sections over two posts (Introduction, Beginners tips and Advanced strategies).
An introduction to In-Running betting…..
Many years ago (well not that many actually) the only in-running betting on offer was when you were lucky enough to be at the track and a bookmaker would shout out ‘6/4 the favourite’ when the beast was tailed off and about to be pulled up. Surprisingly they never seemed to get too many takers! How things have changed though because, with the advent of the betting exchanges, we now have in-running betting on just about every race and sporting event taking place around the globe and that cry of ‘6/4 the favourite’ is most likely to be 1000/1 now.
Put simply, in-running trading is backing or laying a selection once the race/event has begun. The odds are adjusted as the race begins and unfolds until betting ends as the race finishes (or shortly before it ends if the result is a formality).
The high street bookmakers have all latched on to this form of betting and offer it in their shops on many events but the vast majority of all in-running trading is done on the exchanges (i.e. Betfair) with punters pitting their skills against one another. Make no mistake, this is a skill and you will need to make split second judgements on many occasions if you are to be successful.
Typically the odds on offer will range from 1/100 up to 1000/1 and though you may think a 1/100 shot is a near certainty the history of Betfair is littered with stories where such ‘certainties’ have been turned over and proved extremely costly to those that have bet these odds. The truth is they do get beat and if you decide that backing these short priced ‘good things’ is the way you wish to trade then remember you will need a very good strike rate to compensate for one of these unexpected eventualities.
There are plenty of different types of in-running traders varying from those that prefer to take the very short odds to those that are always on the lookout for a massive priced upset. You also get those that rely on their own race reading skills to determine which horse represents good value at any particular stage of a race and back there judgements accordingly either by laying those that don’t look like winning or backing those that do. Another type of trader is that which seeks simply to take a small profit (or green up) by backing a horse at certain odds then laying it back at shorter or vice versa e.g. backing a horse who travels well at 2/1 and laying it at evens.
If it sounds complicated it’s probably because it is and before you start out in this highly volatile field of betting you really need to know what you’re doing. You also need 100% concentration with no distractions. That means no reading the Racing Post or making a cup of tea in the middle of the race or ringing the chinese takeaway for your supper or playing on your Nintendo DS. Focus is the key!
5 Things a Beginner should know before starting In-Running Trading….
1. Be aware of any time delay on the pictures you are watching.
Coverage that may be broadcast as ‘live’ can be a couple of seconds behind real time meaning that the horse that you’re backing as it cruises to the last fence 10 lengths clear may have in fact already fallen. Satellite, Cable and Internet coverage have the worst delay with Terrestial TV pictures probably the nearest to Live as you can get (without actually being there).
2. Trust no-one but yourself.
Bet only by your own view of proceedings. No matter how great you consider the race commentator to be, forget what they are telling you is happening and use your own judgement. Your best bet is to turn off the sound and rely solely on what you see with your own eyes.
3. Learn the colours.
If you’ve turned off the sound then the best way to distinguish between the horses is by the jockey’s colours. Therefore you need to know what horse has what colours and most importantly - are there any colour changes?
4. Bet or Kill.
With things happening so fast in an in-running market it is essential that if your bet isn’t matched immediately then you have to cancel it (or ‘kill’ it) straight away. What looks like great odds one second can be a terrible trade the next and you better believe that there’s always someone willing to take / lay your bet if you’ve got the odds wrong. Bettor beware!
5. It’s not easy.
In running betting is very volatile and happens at great speed so start off small and build up your stakes only when you become more experienced. Take notes, read up on horses running styles, know the courses & going and study in-running markets to see just how quickly they can change during the course of a race.
Part 2 on Tuesday as I won’t be around tomorrow…
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LONG RANGE ANTE-POST FANCY
You’re all probably sick of me banging on about the draw at Ayr last month but having seen the result of the Rockfel on Saturday it just underlines what I was saying at the time. The race at Ayr that really got my goat was the Firth of Clyde where Distinctive enjoyed a massive advantage with the draw when running out a 3 and a bit length winner. Astrophysical Jet finished in third and also ran on the far side just in front of my big fancy (and also my biggest bet of this flat season), Beyond Desire who had the handicap of racing up the stands rail.
Music Show was also racing on the unfavoured near side and despite being fancied as the 2nd favourite for the race she could never land a blow and finished 10th of the 13 runners. She showed that race to be the farce it was when yesterday she reversed form in no uncertain terms with both Distinctive and Astrophysical Jet.
Which in a roundabout sort of way might make the Betfair 99/1 on offer about Beyond Desire look a interesting bet for next season’s 1000 Guineas. It’s a long way away but that doesn’t look the worst 99/1 shot ever and I’ve had enough on to pay for a couple of weeks in Vegas should she do the business next May. That should give me something to dream about through the Winter….
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£100 to a Grand Challenge
The last round only managed to trip 3 of you up so we’re now down to 15 remaining.
The next challenge will be to decide how many European trained winners will win over the 2 days of the Breeders Cup meeting (6th and 7th November). I’ll set the mark at 3.5 winners and you’ll need to send MORE or LESS depending on your opinion.
Please note:Only Godolphin horses trained by Saeed Bin Suroor will count for the Euro team.
Entries to the usual email address by midnight on the 5th November.
Good luck,
Gavin.