Haydock & Sandown Lucky 15

We've been doing fairly well with the Lucky 15's this year and have been knocking on the door of a big win. Let's see if these four can be the ones that finally hit the jackpot....

CORAL CHARGE - 1.50 SANDOWN

I've been following ALPHA DELPHINI all Season and this looks a good opportunity for him to return to winning ways. On his first start of the year he was stuck out in the middle of the course at Newmarket and couldn't land a blow to Marsha from his bad draw but showed that run to be all wrong when putting in a good performance next time out in Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes. He was a little squeezed for room at the business end of the race but ran on to finish a 3/4 length third.

Last time out he was a big price for the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot but ran very well to finish 6th behind Wesley Ward's crack 3yo sprinting filly Lady Aurelia and just over a length behind re-opposing Muthmir. That one has a 5lb penalty to carry in this Group 3 race so it should just tip the scales in the selection's favour...


CORAL CHALLENGE 2.25 SANDOWN

The selection began the season with a neck victory over GK Chesterton (won his next two starts) before a strong finishing 3/4 length 4th in the Spring Cup behind Banksea (2nd and 3rd have both won since). On his third start he again finished strongly to get beat 3/4 length, this time by Fastnet Tempest (won his next start also) over 7f in the Victoria Cup (3rd horse was Zhui Feng who won the Hunt Cup next time out).

With form like that it was no wonder he was sent off at 12/1 for the Hunt Cup. Unfortunately he was drawn on the dreaded far side rail for that race and stayed in a small group of three that raced on the opposite side to the main field. They never had any chance at all and we can put a line right through that run. Just forget it ever happened.

With that run now erased from my memory I just can't see how GEORGE WILLIAM won't be involved in the finish.


LANCASHIRE OAKS - 2.40 HAYDOCK

John Gosden has a great record in this race having won it 6 times and supplied 2 runner ups and a 40/1 3rd in the last 20 years. His runners warrant the greatest of respect but they have a bit to prove having both been beaten last time out in similar contests to this.

The one I like the look of is Sir Michael Stoute's runner ABINGDON who demolished the field in a Listed contest last time out by 10 lengths. This is a big step up in class from that race but she acquitted herself well in Group 1 company last Season when 5th in the St Leger as the 5/2 favourite. The ground should be to her liking as her record on Good to Firm is 1111 and over 1m4f is 211. She beat second favourite Ajmaan Princess by 1/2 length in an Ascot Maiden last Season on the same terms and looks a safe bet here.


OLD NEWTON CUP - 3.15 HAYDOCK

The Main Trends:

4yo's have won 14 of the last 20 renewals including 7 of the last 9

Breakdown Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
3 14 0 0% -14.00 3 21%
4 129 14 11% 52.50 35 27%
5 76 3 4% -43.50 13 17%
6 43 2 5% -27.00 10 23%
7 23 1 4% -8.00 5 22%
8 8 0 0% -8.00 1 13%
9 4 0 0% -4.00 0 0%
10 1 0 0% -1.00 0 0%

3yo's can no longer run in the race but the grid still shows how dominant 4yo's are in this race compared to their older rivals.

Recent trends (last 10 years)

  • All of the last 10 winners had their last race in a class 2 or 3 handicap
  • All of the last 10 winners were rated 87-102 and carried 8-06 - 9-07
  • All of the last 10 winners had run in the previous 45 days
  • All of the last 10 winners had run at least 6 times in their career
  • 9 of the last 10 winners had their last run over 1m2f or 1m4f (exception ran in the 2mile Northumberland Plate)
  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished top 8 last time out (exception was 15th in the 2mile Northumberland Plate)
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had finished top 2 last time out

And the negatives (last 20 years)....

  • All 42 claiming jockeys have been beaten (All 15 3lb claimers finished unplaced)
  • All 31 horses dropping down from a class 1 race have been beaten
  • All 21 horses that last ran at Epsom have been beaten
  • All 19 horses rated over 103 have been beaten
  • All 10 French Bred runners have finished unplaced
  • All 9 of Sir Michael Stoute's runners have been beaten

I make it between BIG COUNTRY and TOULSON with preference for the first named although, despite winning on good to firm last time out, his trainer has indicated he might not run if the ground is too firm. Should that be the case then I will simply switch to Toulson for my bet.


ALPHA DELPHINI 1.50 SANDOWN
GEORGE WILLIAM 2.25 SANDOWN
ABINGDON 2.40 HAYDOCK
BIG COUNTRY (TOULSON) 3.15 HAYDOCK


Good luck,
Gavin.

And don't forget that tomorrow also sees Sandown play host to the Coral Eclipse.

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