that my blog writing career doesn’t fall at the first hurdle.

Anyway, here goes…..

First of the three group races run at Epsom this weekend is the Coronation Cup.

A very interesting statistic for this race is that every winner since 1989 recorded a top 3 finish in a group race last time out. If we apply this rule to the field for this years race we see only two horses qualify, Getaway and Macarthur.
This can only mean one of two things,

1) We have uncovered a fantastic betting oppurtunity
or
2) Benjamin Disraeli was right- there are lies, damn lies and statistics

I’m inclined to go with the first option because I think the two horses in question have a fantastic chance anyway. Getaway’s trainer Andre Fabre has won this race 5 times since 1990 and last won it in 2006 with Shirrocco. He won at Epsom after winning the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, the same race Getawaytook this year in very impressive fashion. That race has been a good pointer for the Coronation Cup (4 winners and 8 places since 1995)and Getaway, on his favoured softish ground, looks a very worthy favourite
As for Macarthur I think he is massively overpriced. This is mainly due to Aiden O’Briens other runner Soldier of Fortune being in the race. He has much the better form of the two but hasn’t had a run this year and no horse has won this race on his seasonal reappearance since 1988.
O’Brien has won 2 ofthe last 3 runnings of this race and provided the 1-2 last year with Scorpion and Septimus. Scorpion won at Epsom on the back of a battling defeat in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester (a race Daliapour had won taken prior to winning the Coronation Cup) and this years Ormonde winner was none other than Macarthur.

Andre Fabre and Aiden O’Brien obviously know what it takes to win this race and though Getaway has all the credentials I can just see Macarthur running a massive race at a big price.

At about 5/4 and 16/1 respectively I think we can afford to back them both.

I’ll be back later with an in-depth Oaks preview.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 4th, 2008 at 2:02 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.