One horse who did appreciate the soft ground this week and who I was glad to see win was Pintura. I’ve been following him since tipping him when running poorly in last years Hunt Cup. The ground hadn’t been right for many of his runs since so it was disappointing to see him run so badly at Newbury last time given that he had his favoured going. He did slip another few pounds in the ratings as a result of that result and was able to capitalise on his new lower mark to score yesterday. What pleased me most about the win (apart from winning a few quid) was that it signalled the beginning of a return to form for the Simcock yard. The runners from the stable have been running poorly since the start of the Season (I know this from having backed quite a few of them) but they now seem to be showing signs of revival.

Which is good news for the horse I fancy in the Victoria Cup……

3.25 Ascot

FATHSTA ran 6th of 28 in this race last year off a 10lb higher rating and on unsuitably firm ground so looks well weighted to run a big race today. To show how far his handicap mark has slipped we simply need to see how much better off with last years winner he is. He gave Hawkeyethenoo 7lb when beaten 5 3/4 lengths in last years renewal but today receives 13lb giving him a 20lb pull in the weights. This time last year he was running off a rating in the 100’s but has now slipped to 90 and he seems to thrive in these big field handicaps with plenty of good runs throughout his career including a 6th in last years Wokingham (behind Deacon Blues off level weights!). With a step back up to 7f on soft ground today, the stable back in some sort of form, a good draw and a good handicap mark I’m expecting him to show a big improvement on his last run. It’s never easy to find the winner of a 24 runner handicap at Ascot but with a bit of luck and a clear route through I reckon he can be thereabouts.

Quite a few firms are offering 16/1 at 1/4 odds the first 5 (Bet365, Boylesports, PaddyPower) which I’d rather take over 18/1 the first 4 (Coral).

The other big handicap of the day is the Swinton Hurdle over the jumps at Haydock. It’s now been renamed The Pertemps Network, moved from the Bank Holiday weekend and stuck in the middle of a flat card but it still looks as tricky as ever.

Eradicate has won the last two runnings of this race and in the process completely destroyed the trends which used to be a very solid guide. Thankfully he’s not in the field this year so I’m going to give them another go….

- 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 4-6 (both exceptions Eradicate)
- 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 125-136 (1 exception Eradicate)
- 11 of the last 13 winners had won at least 1 of their last 4 starts (1 exception Eradicate)

which leaves 7

- 10 of the last 13 winners had raced no more than 9 times (1 exception Eradicate)

gives us a shortlist of 3: Ruler of All, Ifyouletmefinish and Double Ross

- 9 of the last 13 winners carried 10-08 or less (3 of 4 exceptions carried 11-04+)
- 9 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (3/4 exceptions finished 10th or worse)
- 10 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 2 of a handicap hurdle

Giving us DOUBLE ROSS as a big outsider that scores very well on the trends. He’s won on soft ground, has a 3rd to Fingal Bay and a 2nd to Cinders and Ashes in his form, ran off a 9lb higher mark in the Betfair Hurdle and has been running over a trip too far in his last two runs (including 8th in the NIM Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival). 33/1 looks a fair price to me.

If you’re not keen on following my selections I’m sure Gary will be posting his thoughts in the comments box below later on this morning.

Due to a rearranged match from one that was postponed in the Winter, Dylan has one last game of football this morning to try and get his 40th goal of the Season and set a club record. He’s already secured the Golden Boot as the topscorer but he really wants the 40 and has promised me a Drogba style celebration if he nets it. Rhoose Under 7’s had better watch out…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

For those of you following my Poker antics on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/gavin.priestley.1) I can report that I finished 2nd again in the Genting Poker qualifier last night meaning I am now just 50pts behind the 2nd place runner in the overall League. We’re all chasing a Las Vegas holiday package and the current leader is well within my sights as we head into the final weeks of the competition. I can almost feel the sun on my back, the sound of riffled chips in the Rio and the taste of the pulled pork sandwich in the New York New York sports bar. Mmmmmmm…..

Right, down to business and Day 1 of the very popular Chester May Meeting….

THE CHESTER CUP

This is a race I’ve had a lot of success in over the years including Mamlook and Overturn in the last two runnings. This year I can’t understand how Kazbow can be a 40/1 shot on his running behind Never Can Tell over course and distance last September and he’ll be one of a couple of horses I’ll be backing in the race. He gave the subsequent Cesarewitch winner 7lb that day but was beaten just 1/4 length and on revised terms is 10lb better off with that rival. How one can be 6/1 co-favourite while the other is 40/1 is a mystery to me and with Kieran Fallon booked I’m hoping for a big run. 40/1 EW with Coral

3.05 CHESTER

It’s a race Gary has been waiting all Season for. STAR ROVER finally returns to 5f after many failed attempts at longer trips and as explained in his sprinters to follow this is one of his main fancies for the year. Chester is a course Star Rover has run well at in the past including a course and distance win as a 2yo at this very meeting in 2009. This is the lowest turf rating he has ever run off (was rated 108 at his peak) and from the 6 stall is handily placed to run from the front rank. I know Gary has already snaffled plenty of the 20/1 available.

4.45 CHESTER

I’ll be backing Fallon again in the lucky last on the awfully named JUNO THE MUFFINMAN. As a 2yo he always looked in need of a trip and that he would eventually make a nice 12f handicapper. He ran a fine second at Wolverhampton last June when splitting Ghostwriting and Repeater in a 7f maiden. With those two now rated 86 and 92 he looks nicely treated on just 75 and after a 10 length maiden romp at Southwell on his seasonal debut he comes here in form and well handicapped. He ran well on heavy ground at the end of last year and with Fallon booked looks set for a big run.

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We had another runner from my Ten To Follow list oblige yesterday at 10/1. Here’s what my 10TF analysis said…..

QUIZ MISTRESS (G. BUTLER) - 4yo
To look at her form figures you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d lost the plot with this one. I probably have but I noted her when finishing 2nd in a couple of longer distance races late last Summer. Both times she battled really well only to lose out both times to well handicapped improving runners. On her next three starts (including being outclassed in Listed company) she has been ridden closer to the pace and this style of racing doesn’t suit her. She needs to be held up at the back and produced at around the 2 furlong marker. All of her best runs have come in races where she has been ridden this way and under a more restrained ride can finally get back to winning ways.

She’s now trained by Hughie Morrison but apart from that it was exactly as I said with Ryan Moore holding her up in rear before making his challenge at around the 1 1/2F pole and quickening well clear with 120 yards to go. A nice 10/1 winner to go with the 13/2 Staff Sergeant and 7/2 Mayson (Gary’s list of sprinters to follow) last week. Those 3 winners have put us well in profit from just a handful of runs.

You can download the complete list of  Horses to Follow from this direct, one click link….

TEN TO FOLLOW LISTS

It’s 100% FREE with no details required!

Good luck,
Gavin.

2.00 Newmarket

Top weight Fury has run two superb races this season in the two biggest mile handicaps run so far but he keeps hanging in the closing stages and has been going up in the weights without winning. He’ll probably run another good race but I don’t think 9f is the answer for him and he’ll probably find at least one too good for him again. I’m heading a bit lower in the weights and siding with MEMORY CLOTH who as a 3yo ran under 4 lengths behind Bekhabad, who went off favourite for the 2010 Arc and Breeders Cup Turf. After 16 months off the course his two runs last season were unspectacular but it did help his rating come down from the 95 he had started off in this country. He started off this year running twice on the AW over a trip too far 12f and an inadequate 7f but it meant he was able to run last time off 82. He took full advantage of this lenient mark to record a 3 1/4 length win in a 17 runner handicap at Ripon and now looks ready to step back up in class. The 9f and soft ground should be no problem and I fancy him to defy his 8lb rise in the weights.

2.15 Goodwood

If VITA NOVA doesn’t win this then I’m going to be a) very surprised and b) skint. She’s got the best form by far, won first time up last year, loves soft ground and has around a stone in hand on the field. If she runs anything like her second in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks behind Blue Bunting they won’t see which way she went.

3.10 Newmarket 2000 Guineas

I took a look at this race on Tuesday (CLICK HERE TO READ MY PREVIEW) and sided with the French raider HERMIVAL at 25/1. All this rain should suit him and I’m sticking with him and having a little each way bet on Frankie Dettori’s mount TALWAR at 40/1.

3.45 Palace House Stakes

The most amazing thing about this race is that the top rated runner in the field Hamish McGonagall has never won above class 2 in all of his racing career. He did manage a second in a Group 1 last year but all of his 12 attempts at Listed or Group company have met with failure. With most of this field having raced against each other, and taken it in turns to beat one another, in various sprints over the past few seasons I think I’ll take a chance on the bottom weight who has some excellent form to her name. CALEDONIA LADY belied her 100/1 odds to finish 3rd to Best Terms at Royal Ascot last year on only her second start and continued to run well in Group company throughout the year. She broke her maiden status in a Listed race at Ayr and rounded off her juvenile campaign staying on well for 3rd in a big Group 3 field at Ascot. First time up this Season she ran second in a Listed sprint at Bath which she would have won in another stride and had Night Carnation well behind in 5th. 3yo’s have won 3 of the last 6 runnings of this race and this stiff 5f on soft ground is just what she needs. 20/1 is a massive price which can’t be missed.

4.30 Thirsk Hunt Cup

DUBAI DYNAMO has a lot going for him in this race and should give us a great run at decent odds. He’s a very consistent horse but has struggled a bit since being rated in the mid 90’s during the second half of last season. He’s since slipped back to a more realistic rating of 87 and if you look at some of his form with a few of the runners in this field then he could look nicely weighted. He has a whopping 17lb pull with Stevie Thunder on Ripon running last August and on the 2010 running of this same race he has a 6lb pull with Osteopathic Remedy for the 1 1/2 lengths he got beat. This year he’s remained in good form with a creditable 9th in the Lincoln (from a 3lb higher mark) followed by a staying on 3rd over 7f at Thirsk and a 5th of 15 at Ripon over a mile (slightly hampered when staying on). He’s won over the course, handles softish ground and comes here looking nicely weighted. I think he has a big each way shout in this.

————-

MAY MADNESS IS BACK

If you fancy joining Festival Trends for the month of May then for just £9.95 you can enjoy EVERY guide we will be producing for the month.

That’s;

NEWMARKET this weekend for the Guineas (7 races covered)
CHESTER next week for their Chester Cup meeting (6 races)
LINGFIELD & ASCOT next weekend for the Classic Trials and Victoria Cup (3 races)
LONGCHAMP next Sunday for the French Guineas (2 races)
YORK 16th - 18th for the Dante meeting (5 races)
NEWBURY Saturday 19th for the Lockinge and the reappearance of Frankel (3 races)

NEWMARKET Saturday 19th for the King Charles Stakes (2 races)
HAYDOCK Saturday 26th for the Temple Stakes (2 races)
THE CURRAGH 26th-27th May 1000 & 2000 Guineas (2 races)
SANDOWN 31st May - Brigadier Gerard evening meeting (3 races)

That’s 10 meetings and 35 races for less than a tenner. Sign up below……

FESTIVAL TRENDS SIGN-UP

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. And if you haven’t downloaded the 10 to follow lists yet then maybe this may encourage you……

STAFF SERGEANT (JIM GOLDIE) - 5yo
One for the lower class Northern racing scene. He’s been sent off as favourite on 4 of his last 5 starts but has yet to show the form that his connections were hoping for on the track. That’s not to say he hasn’t run well as he made the runner up spot twice and the top 5 in 16 runner handicaps on another two occasions. His main problem seems to be that he’s not quite able to finish his races off and looks a little one paced in the last half furlong. His trainer started him off as 10f horse at the beginning of the Season and ended it with him contesting 7f-8f races and I think he needs a step back up in trip. There aren’t too many 9f races but that would look the perfect sort of distance for Staff Sergeant. He’s maintained a rating of 77-79 for all of those last 5 runs and should be able to pick up a class 3 or 4 race up North somewhere.

FRIDAY 4TH MAY: MUSSLEBURGH 9F HANDICAP

1ST STAFF SERGEANT 11/2

Download the lists from here; 10 to follow for 2012

The last 10 winners had all finished top 3 on both of their last 2 runs and had all won at least one of those 2 starts.
8 of the 10 had won last time out
while 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 2 of a Listed or better race.

and interestingly

All of the last 15 winners had raced at least twice as a 2yo.

So with that in mind let’s take a look at Sunday’s runners….

ALLA SPERANZA

Trained by Jim Bolger this Irish filly wasn’t seen out until mid-October when she took a mile maiden by 2 1/4 lengths despite looking in big trouble 2 furlongs out. On the evidence of that run she looked a stayer in the making  and it was no surprise to see her upped in trip for her final start some 3 weeks later. She ran in a Listed race over 9f where she found only John Oxx’s Call To Battle too good. The Oaks is her obvious target this Season and she may just find the 1000 Guineas happening too fast for her.

DIALA

William Haggas trains this twice raced filly who improved on her debut second with a convincing 4 length win in a class 5 maiden towards the end of last October. Both of those runs were at Newmarket, on easy ground over 7f. Connections obviously think a lot of her but this is a big step up in class for her and she’ll have needed to have improved over the Winter to challenge some of the other runners who already have Group form to their name.

DISCOURSE

This Godolphinv/ Al Marooni filly sits towards the head of the ante-post betting thanks to a decisive 4 1/2 length win over Lily’s Angel in the 7f Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket last August. This came on the back of a narrow win over her stablemate, Gamalati, in a 6f Newmarket maiden (5 lengths back to the 3rd horse). With that one winning a Group 2 on her next start and having won two races at Meydan over the Winter the form is rock solid and Discourse is a major player.

FIRE LILY

She’s yet to finish outside the top 4 in 8 runs so far, can boast a win in Group 3 company, a good run behind the colt Power and has been runner up twice in Group 1 company. But for all that she does seem to find one too good and has finished runner-up on her last 4 starts. She has twice been beaten by Best Terms and was second on her seasonal debut behind Homecoming Queen. She’ll probably run her usual game race but I just can’t see her winning.

GRAY PEARL

Charles Hills takes over the training of this filly from his now retired father Barry and there’s lots to look forward to from this twice raced maiden winner. She comfortably took a class 4 maiden at Newbury before running 3rd in the Rockfel at Newmarket at a big price. She has her work cut out to  reverse form with the winner Wading but represents a stable who have had success in this race recently and cannot be dismissed from calculations.

HOMECOMING QUEEN

Aiden O’Brien kept this one busy as a 2yo running her 11 times in all. It took her 7 attempts to get off the mark which she finally did when winning a 7f handicap. Upped in class she then ran 2nd in a Group 2, won a Listed contest and ended her hectic season running last of 14 at the Breeders Cup. Maintaining her busy schedule she’s already been out twice this season in a couple of Group 3 races managing to win the second of those from Fire Lily. She’s obviously as tough as old boots and a late developer but she doesn’t look up to the class of a Guineas winner.

LA COLLINA

Trained in Ireland by Kevin Prendergast she has some very solid form to her name. After winning her 7f maiden on debut she ran 2nd to Maybe in a 7f Group 3 before her finest hour came at The Curragh in early August. In her first start in Group 1 company she handled the drop back to 6f to account for the colt Power by a neck with the likes of top colts Lilbourne Lad, Frederick Engels and Gatepost all strung out behind. She ended her season finishing 3rd behind old rival Maybe and Fire Lily in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud over 7f.

LAUGH OUT LOUD

She didn’t run as a 2yo but Mick Channon has picked up a couple of Kempton AW wins with her this Season after her debut 2nd at Wolverhampton. The second of those wins came in a pretty decent Class 2 event but she looks way out of her depth in this race.

LIGHTENING PEARL

Another Irish trained filly who ended her season winning the Group 1 Cheverley Park stakes at Newmarket. That’s top form and came on the back of an easy 5 length win in a Group 3 at the Curragh. But she’s another filly who has been well beaten by Maybe and has nearly 3 lengths to make up with that one. She obviously improved after that defeat and with form at the track looks quite a big price at 20/1.

LILYS ANGEL

Richard Fahey gave this one a busy 2yo campaign running her 9 times from early April to late August. She won her first three starts but then her form seemed to plateau out as she got beat in a class 2 at Beverley and ran 5th at Royal Ascot. She bounced back to score in Listed company next time out at Newmarket,  finish 2nd in the big sales race at Newbury and second again in a Newmarket 7f Group 3 but after finishing last at Glorious Goodwood she was given the rest of the Season off. She make her seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in the Nell Gwynn where she was doing all her best work at the finish but she needs to improve quite a bit to reach the required Group 1 standard.

LYRIC OF LIGHT

Mahmood Al Zarooni didn’t run her until late August but boy (or should that be girl), did she make up for lost time. In the space of less than a month she won 3 races on various ground from 7f to a mile. She kicked off with a 7f Newmarket maiden win on good to soft and then headed to Doncaster for the Group 2 May Hill. She took that mile race on good ground by a neck and 3 1/4 lengths from Fallen For You and Samitar before heading back to Newmarket two weeks later for the Group 1 Fillies Mile. After travelling strongly for most of the race she eventually made hard work of beating Samitar this time around scoring only by a head getting up only in the last strides. 3 runs in less than 4 weeks had probably took its toll by then and after the Winter off she could come back this year ready to pick up where she left off.

MASHOORA

This French trained filly is quite short in the betting given her form doesn’t look quite as good as some of the Irish and home trained fillies. She won first time up and then finished runner up on two occasions in Group 3 company. She was beaten 1 1/2lengths by the top class filly Elusive Kate on her second run before being caught on the line by the unbeaten filly Boldogsag next time out over a mile on softish ground. That was the last we saw of her as a 2yo. She started this season with a Group 3 win over rank outsider Belle De Lune but it was the manner of her victory that obviously caught the eye of the odds compilers. Taking it up at the furlong pole she surged clear before Christophe Soumillon decided to get a bit cheeky and apply the brakes. He eased her right down to win by a neck but it could easily have been 10 lengths or more. She stays, she handles the ground but the big question is, ‘what does her form really amount to?’.

MAYBE

Aiden O’Brien gave her the perfect campaign last year with 5 wins from 5 runs and each time she raced upped a level in class. From maiden to Listed to Group 3 to Group 2 and finally Group 1 she answered every question she was asked and beat a lot of her 1000 Guineas rivals along the way. Her final victory in the Moyglare Stud was undoubtedy her best performance as she saw off Fire Lily and La Collina by 1 3/4 lengths and 3 in a time just outside standard. Being by Galileo the mile should be no problem but 6/4? Looks a little short for me considering there are so many other decent Group 1 fillies in the field.

MOONSTONE MAGIC

Unraced as a 2yo, Ralph Beckett trains this unbeaten twice raced filly who obviously caught connections on the hop with her debut win as she scored at 16/1 in a lowly Leicester class 5 maiden. She won that race by 8 lengths so they tested her out in Group company on her next start in the Fred Darling at Newbury. She came through that test very well by comfortably defeating Radio Gaga by 3 3/4 lengths leaving themselves little choice but to supplement her into the 1000 Guineas. If she improves by the same amount again then she will be a force to be reckoned with on Sunday.

NAYARRA

Connections obviously thought she was a good one right from the off as she was favourite for her first three runs but each time she found one too good and although she held her own in Listed and Group 3 races subsequently she looked destined to finish the season as a maiden. However, in a stroke of genius from trainer Mick Channon he sent her to Italy for the Group 1 Grand Criterium which she duly won beating one filly and 5 colts. What the form is worth is anyone’s guess but she did start this year off running second in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn. Overall though her profile doesn’t look like that of a Guineas winner.

RADIO GAGA

She hasn’t taken the normal 1000 Guineas route as having won her maiden at the first time of asking she then ran 2nd in a York handicap. She did slightly better next time out running 3rd in a Listed race at Newmarket and started this year off with a second in the Fred Darling. She was well beaten that day by Moonstone Magic and simply isn’t good enough to win the 1000 Guineas.

STARSCOPE

She only raced once as a 2yo where she surpised connections with a 20/1 win from Coplow in a 7f Newmarket maiden. Despite winning nicely the form of that race doesn’t look anything special. She started her 3yo career in the Nell Gwyn but could only manage 4th that day and has it all to do to be competitive here.

SUNDAY TIMES

Got off the mark at the second time of asking when easily winning a Class 4 Goodwood maiden by over 3 lengths. Subsequently raised in class she finished well behind Best Terms at York before running the race of her life in the Group 1 Cheverley Park where she stayed on well to take second behind Lightening Pearl. She was unable to repeat that run when upped in trip for the Rockfel and wasn’t seen again until running 6th in the Nell Gywn on her seasonal reappearance. She wasn’t beaten that far though and was staying on nicely at the finish. If she can recapture the form of her Cheverley park second she may be an outsider worth noting on Sunday.

THE FUGUE

John Gosden managed to squeeze a run into her at the very end of last Season when she won a Class 4 Newmarket maiden by 1 1/2 lengths. The second has been beaten since while the third managed a class 6 win on the Wolverhampton AW on his second start after. Not really the sort of form we’re looking for in a Guineas winner.

UP

An Aiden O’Brien runner with just the one win to her name although she did manage a fine 4th at the Breeders Cup last year. She’s been slightly disappointing this year with a defeat at 1/2 on the AW at Dundalk and a 3rd behind stablemate Homecoming Queen in a Group 3 last time out. On both of those starts she’s looked like a filly in need of a trip and she strikes me more as an Oaks type rather than a miler.

WONDERFUL

Another Aiden O’Brien runner but this one has yet to win a race. She’s finished 2nd on both of her two starts including finishing behind stablemate Up on the Dundalk all weather. I’m not sure when the last maiden won the 1000 Guineas but it wasn’t anytime recently and I wouldn’t be backing this one to buck that particular trend.

—————–

There are some very decent unbeaten fillies from last season in this race along with some improving horses who have shown excellent form already this year. It should be a fascinating contest but the two I’m going to take from this field at decent odds will be the Cheverley Park 1-2 from last season.

Lightening Pearl looks massive at 20/1 and the 66/1 Sunday Times may just be worth a couple of quid each way too.

Good luck,
Gavin.

But first I’m going to take a look at the first Classic of the Season with a run down of the declared runners for the 2000 Guineas…..

ABTAAL

A French trained colt who seems suited to softish ground and racing over 8f. He won a mile Group 3 race at the end of last Season where he beat French Fifteen by 3 lengths. On his seasonal debut he was favourite to beat that rival again but he stumbled at the furlong pole and found the drop back to 7f against him. He was beaten only a neck that day and connections will be hopeful of reversing form with French Fifteen back over a mile.

BOOMERANG BOB

Never been out of the first 2 in 5 races so far but all his racing as a 2yo was done over 5f. On his seasonal reappearance he stepped up to 7f and although he seemed to stay the trip okay he was no match for the winner Caspar Netscher and will struggle to reverse form with that one.

BORN TO SEA

This Irish trained half-brother to Sea The Stars (same connections) did well in his first season with a Listed stakes win and a 2nd in a Group 3 behind Nephrite but he was found to be lame after that run and hasn’t been out since. Despite being related to Sea The Stars his breeding suggests he may struggle to get the mile (sire stamina index of 7.6f) but at least he should handle the softish ground no problem with both runs having been on similar ground.

BRONTERRE

After winning his first two races (maiden and Listed race) he ended his season with a fine 4th in the Dewhurst behind Parish Hall. He’s another with stamina issues and his seasonal debut saw him turned over at odds-on in the Greenham behind Caspar Netscher. I’d be very surprised if he’s good enough to make the frame.

CAMELOT

He easily won his maiden first time up then turned the Racing Post Trophy into a procession with a 2 1/4length win from Zip Top. What that form is worth we can’t be certain and winners of that race have a terrible record in the Guineas. He’s plenty short enough in the betting due to the connections breeding hype machine and may be worth taking on considering they’ve had plenty of other similar horses beaten in this race (remember St Nicholas Abbey?).

CASPAR NETSCHER

He had a very busy 2yo campaign with 10 runs starting in May and finishing at the Breeders Cup in November. He won two Group 2’s last Summer and the Group 3 Greenham Stakes on his Seasonal debut but his record in Group 1 company is 5-8 and with a sire stamina index of  just 6.9f there must be a real doubt that he will last out the mile at Newmarket.

COUPE DE VILLE

Richard Hannon managed to train him to 4 wins from 6 starts as a 2yo including a big sales race at Newmarket in October. He is yet another runner with a low sire stamina index (7.1f) and it’s looking like the 2000 Guineas may be a race of non stayers this year! He started 2012 off in a 10f sales race where he went off as the favourite but simply didn’t stay and was a well beaten 5th. Even allowing  for the drop back in trip he doesn’t look good enough to win the Guineas.

FENCING

He looked a nice prospect when running away with a Listed race at Newbury last August but was no match for Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy on his next start. He is at least bred to get the trip but there is no reason why he should reverse Doncaster placings with the favourite.

FRENCH FIFTEEN

As his name suggests he’s another French trained runner and he’s yet to be out of the top 2 in 7 runs since his debut. He’s won 6 times including a Group 1 and gained revenge on his sole conqueror, since his debut, when winning first time up this Season. He’s already won 3 times over a mile and handles soft ground but I’m not so sure he’ll confirm his reappearance form over the other two French trained runners.

FURNERS GREEN

Aiden O’Brien trains him and after a debut maiden win good things were obviously expected of him as he contested Group 1,2 and 3 races on his next 3 starts. That didn’t work out as he was well beaten in all 3 races and then again on his seasonal debut when dropped to a conditions race. He got his career back on track with a Group 3 win last time out and may run well at a big price.

HERMIVAL

The trainer pulled off a shock win with Makfi two years ago and on form he’s not far behind the other 2 French trained runners mentioned above. He ran 3rd in the Group 3 race that French Fifteen beat Abtaal and was doing all his best work late on. He’ll relish every yard of the trip on Saturday and if it keeps raining he may give his trainer another upset in this famous race.

MANDAEN

He was unbeaten in 2 starts for Andre Fabre, is now owned by Godolphin and won a Group 1 by 2 1/2 lengths on his last start. So why is he 50/1? Because both of those wins were at a distance in excess of a mile (9f and 10f). Stamina isn’t an issue as it is with others in the field but he looks much more likely to be a Derby horse than a Guineas one.

MIGHTY AMBITION

He won a nice 7f maiden at Newbury at the end of last Summer and looked a decent prospect but despite going off as favourite for the Craven on his seasonal debut he was unable to handle the step up in class. He finished well held in 5th and looks unlikely to improve enough to play a hand in the finish here.

PARISH HALL

He was a shock winner of the Dewhurst at the end of last Season but if you take that form literally he has an excellent chance of coming back to Newmarket and taking the first classic of the year. With Power, Most Improved, Bronterre and Trumpet Major all behind  him that day the form looks solid and a mile looks well within his scope. He won first time up as a 2yo and has shown he can handle the track with his Dewhurst win. The one reservation is the going as he has been well beaten both times he has raced on ground softer than good and connections will be hoping the rain stays away this weekend.

POWER

He went off the 15/8 favourite for the Dewhurst after an impressive early 2yo career that saw him win 4 of his 5 races and come 2nd on the other start. His Group 1 record is 2-1-2 and he has shown he can handle the ground and the track BUT once again we have a runner with a low sire stamina index figure (7.3f). Despite some decent credentials I won’t be backing this suspect stayer.

PTOLEMAIC

It took him 3 starts to get off the mark having made his debut at lowly Hamilton and then ran second in Listed company on his final 2yo start. He started his 3yo career off with a decent 4th in the Craven but was beaten a fair way and despite looking likely to appreciate the trip has little chance of making the frame.

REDACT

Another Hannon runner. He won his first two starts as a 2yo then finished 4th in the big Newbury Super Sprint sales race, 8th in the Ripon 2yo Trophy and 2nd to Caspar Netscher in a Group 2 on his final start of the Season. He began 2012 by finishing 4th off a big weight in the Free Handicap. The distance should prove no problem for him but the ground just might. His worst career run came on good to soft and unless it dries up considerably this week he won’t be getting his favoured ground.

RED DUKE

He had a great 2yo season winning the Group 2 Superlative stakes, finishing a very unlucky 3rd at Glorious Goodwood and runner up to Trumpet Major in the Group 2 Champagne stakes. His final run of the Season was in the Dewhurst where he disappointed finishing 8th of 9 although he was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths. Connections took him to Meydan for his first run of the season where he ran in a 10f Group 2 and finished 5th. Despite all the evidence of his previous runs suggesting he will appreciate the trip he is yet another runner to have a low sire stamina index (7f).

SAIGON

He has a win over Caspar Netscher in a Listed contest and was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths in a Group 1 race but overall his form doesn’t look good enough to land a Guineas. Once again we have a runner with a low 7.7f  sire stamina index although he was staying on very strongly over 7f in last seasons Group 2 Horris Hill. He’s never ran on ground softer than good with all his best form being on good to firm.

TALWAR

At the end of last August he looked like a horse going places having defeated Trumpet Major and following that up with a 5 length win in a Group 3 race at Sandown. However he was then stepped up to Group 1 company in 2 of his next 3 runs and failed to beat a single horse including finishing last behind Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy. He took advantage of a drop in class on his seasonal debut to win an all weather Listed contest going away. That was over a mile which he seemed to see out well so if we are able to ignore his 6.8f Sire stamina index figure he could be worth backing at 66/1 each way.

TOP OFFER

Nothing exposes the lack of class in this years 2000 Guineas than the fact that this once raced maiden winner is second favourite for the race. His impressive 3 1/2 length win in a class 4 maiden was undoubtedly eye catching but he hasn’t been out since last August and the runner up in that race was turned over by 5 lengths at 10/11 in a class 5 AW maiden next time out (the 3rd has also been beaten twice since). The 6/1 is definitely not for me.

TRUMPET MAJOR

He was unable to run two decent races in succession throughout his 2yo career and as a result his form went from the dazzling to the disappointing.  Highlights included a 6 length win over Elkhart at Newmarket and his win in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes but in contrast he finished last of 4 in a Group 3 at Sandown and 14th at Royal Ascot. He won the Craven first time out this year by 5 lengths but his overall profile doesn’t exude confidence that he will be able to reproduce that run.

————–

Throughout my analysis of the race I have been harping on about the Sire Stamina Index Ratings of the runners. The reason for this is that since 1991 EVERY winner of the 2000 Guineas had a sire with a stamina index of at least 8f (a mile). Over the last 5 years 12 of the 15 win and placed horses have had a SSI of 8f+….

2011 Frankel (11.1f) Dubawi Gold (9f) Native Khan (10.4f)
2010 Makfi (9f) Dick Turpin (7.7f) Canford Cliffs (7f)
2009 Sea The Stars (8.9f) Delagator (9.3f) Gan Amhras (11.1f)
2008 Henrythenavigator (9.9f) New Approach (11.1f) Stubbs Art (9.6f)
2007 Cockney Rebel (9.6f) Vital Equine (6.8f) Dutch Art (8.8f)

If you take out those runners this year that have a SSI lower than 8f you have 11 runners to choose your winner from:

Boomerang Bob, Camelot, Fencing, Furners Green, Hermival, Mandaean, Mighty Ambition, Parish Hall, Ptolemaic, Redact and Top Offer.

I’m going to take on the top 2 in the betting and side with a couple of big priced outsiders;

HERMIVAL (25/1)  and FURNERS GREEN (80/1)

Good luck,
Gavin.

This season we gave 93 winners from 369 selections and made a profit of over 125pts (Betfair SP before commission)

That’s a 1 in 4 Strike Rate or 25.2% to be exact.

185 of the 369 runners finished in the Top 3.

That’s 1 in 2 making the frame or 50.13% to be exact.

We had 21 Fallers or Unseats including a couple who were well on their way to victory at the time.

The full breakdown of where our runners finished looks like this;

1ST 93 25.2%
2ND 53 14.36%
3RD 39 10.57%
4TH 44 11.92%
5TH 26 7.05%
6TH 19 5.15%
7TH 11 2.98%
8TH 11 2.98%
9TH 4 1.08%
0TH 20 5.42%
PU 28 7.58%
FELL 12 3.25%
UR 9   2.44%

After the great success of the TTS Guide this Winter (now 6 years of profits in a row!) I’ve been asked by a number of subscribers to do a Flat version. So, after many weeks of research I have now produced a 2yo Guide that will run from May 1st to October 31st, the new ‘official’ Flat Season!

The Guide covers 41 Trainer/Track combinations and concentrates solely on the Juvenile runners from the chosen stables.It has everything you need to help pinpoint the races the top trainers target with their 2yo’s and all can show nice profits from a betting point of view for the last 5 years.

But don’t worry if you haven’t got the time to work out the selections yourself as I’ll be continuing the Daily Email Service, which identifies the days runners for you, and this is included in the price of the package.

You can sign up here: TRAINER TRACK STATS

If you’ve joined TTS before but couldn’t seem to make it pay then you may simply have joined us while we were experiencing a losing run (YES! We do have them!). It might be that discipline when it comes to betting isn’t your strong point. Or maybe you just didn’t give it a fair ‘crack of the whip’. Whatever the reason, it’s a shame to have missed out on 6 years of profits and so I’ve made a Guide to Getting the Best Out Of TTS: The 5 Do’s and Don’ts

It’s completely free and can be downloaded from

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/TTS2012guide.pdf

OR

If you would like a sample of the TTS Guide for this Seasons Flat then I have made a Directors Cut Guide that includes 10 Trainers that were identified in the research process, and are profitable to follow, but for one reason or another didn’t make the final cut for the 2012 TTS Guide.

You can have this guide for FREE by clicking here:

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/dircut2012.pdf

Both guides are 100% free and accessed with just one click. No payment, no details, no hassle. Guaranteed!

Good luck,
Gavin.

2.00 Sandown: I’m going to give one last chance to Art Professor, he ran a very good 5th at Cheltenham but was then very disappointing at Aintree. He has won on soft ground and showed he gets this trip with how well he stayed on at Cheltenham. Bet365 are 25/1 which looks worth an ew bet.

2.35 Sandown: I fancy an upset here and would take the 2 outsiders Dan Breen and Woolcombe Folly both are 25/1 to upset the fancied runners.

2.40 Punchestown: I tipped De Danu at Cheltenham for the cross country, he didn’t get in that day. Provided his exertions the other day, where he led for the vast majority of the La Touche over 4m1f, haven’t taken too much out of him,then the 33/1 on offer could prove to be a nice ew bet.

3.10 Sandown: I’m again going with 2 against the field. Rare Bob was my National fancy who was very unluckily brought down at the 5th fence, that exertion shouldn’t have taken too much out of him, he was around 20/1 earlier in the week but is now a top priced 14/1. The other I like is Tullamore Dew available at a best priced 28/1, the distance should be right up his street, he was disappointing at Aintree but I think that was because it all happened too quickly for him. Bet365 and PP are both paying 1st 5 places.

3.15 Punchestown: Roberto Goldback would have won this last year had he not got the last fence all wrong and got rid of his jockey. Follow The Plan was the lucky recipient that day, in the race where Kauto Star pulled up. I think the 16/1 available about Roberto looks tremendous value as he only has 2 lengths to find with Quel Esprit on their 1st and 2nd in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup and he’s the 13/8fav here.

Good Luck
Gary

This season we gave 93 winners from 369 selections and made a profit of over 125pts (Betfair SP before commission)

That’s a 1 in 4 Strike Rate or 25.2% to be exact.

185 of the 369 runners finished in the Top 3.

That’s 1 in 2 making the frame or 50.13% to be exact.

We had 21 Fallers or Unseats including a couple who were well on their way to victory at the time.

The full breakdown of where our runners finished looks like this;

1ST 93 25.2%
2ND 53 14.36%
3RD 39 10.57%
4TH 44 11.92%
5TH 26 7.05%
6TH 19 5.15%
7TH 11 2.98%
8TH 11 2.98%
9TH 4 1.08%
0TH 20 5.42%
PU 28 7.58%
FELL 12 3.25%
UR 9   2.44%

After the great success of the TTS Guide this Winter (now 6 years of profits in a row!) I’ve been asked by a number of subscribers to do a Flat version. So, after many weeks of research I have now produced a 2yo Guide that will run from May 1st to October 31st, the new ‘official’ Flat Season!

The Guide covers 41 Trainer/Track combinations and concentrates solely on the Juvenile runners from the chosen stables.It has everything you need to help pinpoint the races the top trainers target with their 2yo’s and all can show nice profits from a betting point of view for the last 5 years.

But don’t worry if you haven’t got the time to work out the selections yourself as I’ll be continuing the Daily Email Service, which identifies the days runners for you, and this is included in the price of the package.

You can sign up here: TRAINER TRACK STATS

If you’ve joined TTS before but couldn’t seem to make it pay then you may simply have joined us while we were experiencing a losing run (YES! We do have them!). It might be that discipline when it comes to betting isn’t your strong point. Or maybe you just didn’t give it a fair ‘crack of the whip’. Whatever the reason, it’s a shame to have missed out on 6 years of profits and so I’ve made a Guide to Getting the Best Out Of TTS: The 5 Do’s and Don’ts

It’s completely free and can be downloaded from

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/TTS2012guide.pdf

OR

If you would like a sample of the TTS Guide for this Seasons Flat then I have made a Directors Cut Guide that includes 10 Trainers that were identified in the research process, and are profitable to follow, but for one reason or another didn’t make the final cut for the 2012 TTS Guide.

You can have this guide for FREE by clicking here:

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/dircut2012.pdf

Both guides are 100% free and accessed with just one click. No payment, no details, no hassle. Guaranteed!

Good luck,
Gavin.

From our 3 runners yesterday we had two nice winners at 5/2 and 10/1 (plus a loser)

Just another winning day for TTS as since April 1st (this is no Aprils fool) there have been 35 qualifiers of which 11 have won - that’s a strike rate of 31%

These winners have been priced at SP’s of 11/8, 11/8, 6/4, 7/4, 7/4, 5/2, 7/2, 7/2, 4/1, 9/2 and yesterdays 10/1.

This gives a profit on the month of 11.75pts to SP.

STOP PRESS: SUNDAY RESULTS - 2 QUALIFIERS = 7/1 WINNER & 1 LOSER

And  if you think that April must have been a flukey month……. since last November, when we started, we are up over 110pts and have a strike rate better than 1 in 4.

This is the 6th straight year we will show a profit for TTS.

All you need is patience and discipline to make TTS pay for your Summer holiday. If you didn’t sign up at the start of the month then treat yourselves to the last 7 days of the Season absolutely free. There’s plenty of NH racing still to take place this week…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Inter Penarth won 3-0 the week before last (Dylan scored 1 set one up) and they won 4-1 yesterday with Dylan netting twice. He is now on 39 goals for the Season. 50 is the new target before the end of the Season with a new pair of Messi footie boots on offer as the prize.

2.30 Champion Court ran well when 2nd in the Jewson behind Sir De Champs, this longer trip should suit. 2/1 looks a bit tight so only a small interest bet.
2pt win CHAMPION COURT 2/1

3.05 Forpaddydeplasterer 16/1, ran much better at Cheltenham and this longer trip will suit him better than his Cheltenham conquerer Finnians Rainbow.
1pt ew FORPADDYDEPLASTERER 16/1

3.40 I have 2 against the field here Nikola and Bai Zhu who are both 33/1 ew 1st 5 places with Stanjames. Always Waining must be respected now he has changed from the National, I’ll never forget him winning this race 2 years ago when I tipped him here on this Blog at 100/1 AP, but I feel at around 10/1 there’s no value in him anymore.
1pt ew NIKOLA 33/1 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
1pt ew Bai Zhu 33/1 1/4 1-2-3-4-5

4.15 Cotton Mill was in the process of running a great race against Simonsig when he tried to run out 2 out. 5/1 looks a solid bet against the favourite who has had an injury since his last run.
2pt win COTTON MILL 5/1

4.50 Art Professor stayed on well from a long way back at Cheltenham in the Martin Pipe Hurdle, now back with a stronger Jockey he hopefully won’t get quite so far back early on. 20/1 with WH looks a tasty bet,
1pt ew ART PROFESSOR 20/1

5.25 NH flat race, do me a favour, these races are as bad if not worse than 2yo races on the flat. I don’t have a scooby doo who can or will win. Asked my 8yo son for a number between 1-20 and he said 13 so As I Am at 28/1 will do.
0.5pt ew AS I AM 28/1

Good Luck
Gary