The Derby

A horse by horse guide…..

Al Zir:

Pros: Ran a decent 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy lasts season and doesn’t have the front two from that race to worry about today. Keiren Fallon is on board and no one knows how to ride Epsom better than him.
Cons: Frankie prefers the chances of Rewilding and his 9th in the Guineas wasn’t a very good run as all of the last 11 Derby winners had finished in the top 2 on their previous start.

At First Sight:

Pros: As he’s a pacemaker, if you back him you’ll at least have the horse in front for around 10-12 furlongs of the race
Cons: He was well beaten by Midas Touch in the Derrinstown Trial and, in today’s race, after setting a strong pace for his stablemates will have burnt himself out well before the final furlong.

Azmeel:

Pros: He finished 2nd in the Sandown Classic trial and won the Dee Stakes at Chester. He’s only once finished out of the first two in his career when a beaten favourite in a sales race at the Curragh. One of the more likely runners to stay the trip.
Cons: The form of his Sandown 2nd hasn’t worked out very well and neither trial he’s run in this year is renowned for providing the Derby winner

Bullet Train:

Pros: Trained by the mestro Henry Cecil and he won the Lingfield Derby Trial very impressively.
Cons: The last Derby winner to have won the Lingfield trial en-route was High Rise in 1998 and this years race was very poor for a Group 3. Made his debut as a 2yo at Yarmouth and it’s usual for a Derby winner to make his debut at a Grade 1 track (this trend goes back to at least 1990)

Buzzword:

Pros: Is bred to appreciate the trip and the stable is in good form.
Cons: Has been well beaten in Group company and hasn’t won for 5 races which is a massive trends negative. He’s also run a lot more times than is usual for a Derby winner (10 runs) with all of the last 11 winners having run no more than 7 times.

Coordinated Cut:

Pros: Was the early ante-post favourite for the Derby after his well touted debut win at Doncaster when with Peter Chapple-Hyam. Didn’t seem to progress when he only beat one home in the Racing Post Trophy but has since changed stables to Michael Bell and has run very well on both occassions this season. looks sure to appreciate the 1m 4f trip.
Cons: Ran 3rd in the Dante and it’s a well known trend that no horse beaten in that trial has EVER won the Derby.

Hot Prospect:

Pros: A decent 2yo who has run creditably in defeat on two starts this year. Gave Bullet Train a tough time in the Lingfield Derby Trial until weakening in the last half furlong.
Cons: Has been beaten by both Coordinated Cut and Bullet Train this season and there seems to reason why he will reverse placings here. Yet to win in Pattern company unlike the last 11 Derby winners.

Jan Vermeer:

Pros: Bullet proof trends profile and unbeaten since his debut. Won his trial race very easily despite giving weight and fitness away to his rivals.
Cons: His last run was just 13 days ago and may ‘bounce’.

Midas Touch

Pros: Won the Derrinstown Stud last time out and that has been the number 1 trial for the Derby in the last decade.
Cons: That was a poor renewal of that trial with just 4 runners and Jan Vermeer has already beaten him when they both ran in the Criterium at the end of last season. Unsurprisingly Johhny Murtagh has jumped ship.

Rewilding

Pros: Improving 3yo who has been supplemented by his new connections into the race after his impressive win in a Listed trial at Goodwood. Frankie Dettori’s choice of Godolphin’s trio and he looks a major player.
Cons: He’s done little wrong but the slight doubt is that he has yet to win above Listed Class.

Ted Spread

Pros: Won his trial in the style of a battler and in the process proved he handles a sharp track and the distance. He scores quite well on the trends and had some fair 2yo form.
Cons: The last Chester Vase winner to win the Derby was the mighty Shergar and it would be a big surprise if he is in that league! The horse he beat at Chester was hammered by Jan Vermeer next time out and he could probably do with a bit of rain..

Workforce

Pros: His trainer knows how to get one ready for the Derby and this one has been his number one hope for along time. Ran a fine second in the Dante last time on his seasonal debut when he had excuses (the bit slipped through his mouth) and doesn’t have the winner to worry about now.
Cons: It’s that trend again ‘no horse beaten in the Dante has EVER won the Derby’ and it’s been some time since a horse so inexperienced (just 2 runs) has won the Derby.

Right, lets have a go at forecasting the complete result ( I must be mad…)

1st Jan Vermeer - handily placed behind pacemakers. Sent to the front 1 furlong out. Stayed on well
2nd Rewilding - Mid division. Effort from 2 furlongs out. Challenged for lead entering final furlong but readily outpaced.
3rd Bullet Train - ran just off the pacemaker but well clear of the rest of the field. Caught in last furlong. Ran on well to hold third.
4th Workforce - Out the back. Ran on well to take fourth but never troubled leaders.
5th Coordinated Cut - Raced in midfield before effort and outpaced 2 furlongs out. Stayed on again close home.
6th Ted Spread - Held up. Stayed on from 3 out but never in contention.
7th Midas Touch - Raced in rear. Never reached challenging position.
8th Al Zir - Mid-division. Challenged from 2 furlongs out. Weakened final furlong.
9th Buzzword - In rear throughout.
10th Azmeel - Mid division until effort 3 furlongs out. Still with leaders until weakened final furlong.
11th Hot Prospect - Raced with leaders until weakened rapidly from 3 furlongs out.
12th At First Sight - Set strong pace until headed and weakened from 2 furlongs out. Eased when beaten. Tailed off.

There’ probably more chance of me winning the lottery than that happening but it should be fun to see how accurate it is.

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Britain’s Got Talent

It’s the final tonight and although it doesn’t have the best line-up of talent they’ve ever had on the show it should still be a great night’s TV viewing. Here are my own personal thoughts on the contestants……

SPELLBOUND

Brilliant gymnasts and undoubtedly the best act in the final. Their audition and semi-final acts were flawless and featured great choices of music and feats of gymnastictry (?) BUT there’s so much going on it’s difficult to take it all in on a TV screen and can they come up with a third amazing set? The most likely winners but not much value at around even money.

Kieran Gaffney (10/1)

Plays the drums and plays them really well BUT apart from that Cadbury’s advert with the gorilla has there ever been an exciting drum solo performance? I think not. He’ll probably get Phil Collins’s vote but he won’t get mine.

Liam McNally (20/1)

A youngster who can sing quite well and will appeal to the ‘older’ viewer BUT he’s not in the same class as Aled Jones was at that age and will need a great song choice and an improved performance to stand a chance of winning.

Tina and Chandi (8/1)

I have a real problem with dog acts, once you’ve seen one dog roll over or lift it’s paw you’ve seen them all. There was a similar act in an earlier Season of this show and they were miles better than these two but still didn’t win. You’d be barking mad to vote for this act.

Twist and Pulse (16/1)

Two annoying brothers who shake their arms and legs around like a couple of demented drunks on a night out in Cardiff. I think they spelt their name wrong, it should be Twit and Repulse

Connected (22/1)

A pint-size Westlife that makes you ask, why? BUT they will get the teenage vote who apparently make up the largest majority of voters for this type of show and will therefore probably make the top 3. (Bluesquare go 22/1 at 1/5th odds the top 3)

Janey Cutler (8/1)

Scottish singer who is about 105 and deaf as a post. She couldn’t hear the backing track in the semi-final causing her to sing completely out of sync with the music and won’t win if she makes that mistake again.

Tobias Mead (33/1)

Started off as a backing dancer for the 80’s group the Nolans (not exactly Beyonce is it?) and won through his audition with a bizarre back to front dance act that involved him putting his hoodie on the wrong way round and waving his arms about. I’m sure Kriss Kross did that back in the 80’s. His semi-final act had some more dancing and a gold ball flying around the stage which I’m sure I also saw stage magician David Copperfield do in the 80’s(but without the dancing). Unsurprisingly he’s about 80’s on Betfair to win tonight.

Christopher Stone (40/1)

or should that be Chrizzzzzzztopher Stone. He’s a 29yo singing accountant (yes, really) with all the personality of a PAYE spread-sheet. He can sing very well but he’s not exciting and certainly doesn’t have the appeal to be another Paul Potts. It all adds up to no chance.

Paul Burling (7/1)

Which just leaves the comedian & impressionist Paul Burling who you’d have to say is pretty decent at both. He did a great Harry Hill sketch to win his Semi-Final and if he has another routine up his sleeve that is just as funny (and he hasn’t exhausted all the people he can mimic) he could surprise. Worth a second look in the betting.

 My Top 3: Spellbound / Paul Burling / Connected

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Bonus Ball Bet

A terrible start yesterday with Hannon and Hughes letting the side down but if that hasn’t put you off entering then here are the details for the BBB….

1) It’s completely 100% FREE to enter
2) Anyone reading this blog can enter
3) Simply send in the number (1-49) that you think will be the Bonus Ball for the National Lottery Main Draw on Wednesday 30th June to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk
4) Please put your number in the subject field and include your name in the email.
5) Anyone correctly guessing the Bonus Ball number will receive an equal share of the Prize Pot.

There’s plenty of time left to get the Prize Pot bulging and for today’s attempt I’ll be having £5ew Judge ‘N Jury (3.15 Epsom)

Click on the Bonus Ball Bet tab at the top of the page to get full details of the Prize Fund

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Lottery

The 20 lines for tonight’s Lottery draw syndicate are….

I’m hoping for a bit better luck than I’ve been having recently or, as Rog commented, it looks like it’s another caravan holiday for the family this Summer. Please no, I don’t think I could handle another 7 days in a glorified cardboard box…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

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