One down, three to go, dear reader, and personally I can’t help but feel that the best for the trends may already be behind us. But enough of such wanton negativity, and let’s make haste to the (lucky?) seventh race at this year’s Festival.
It’s the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle, and has been covered elsewhere in the ante-post epistles on this ‘ere blog, so I’ll just remind you that we sided with Aigle D’Or and Forpadydeplasterer (but healthy respect is extended to Breedsbreeze and Trafford Lad).
In truth, given the odds, it should really be a ‘no bet’ race, and the recommendation may be to perm these four in the first leg of your placepot. Hope it does better than my day one ‘lead zeppelin’, which entertained me for all of about five minutes…
Race two tomorrow is the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and its going to be the first of a number of slogs in the nasty weather. Again, covered elsewhere, we’ve sided with Silverburn (at 10’s) and also the non-runner Gold Medallist.
The third race is also the third and final race already previewed elsewhere, and the highlight of the second day, the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
I can’t have Master Minded, and just hope he gets home in one piece. I make it between Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic, but I can’t rule out Tamarinbleu. Not original, but it’s rarely a race where original thinking is called for.
Now let’s take a look at the remaining three races on the second day:
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 3 contest over two miles and five furlongs. It’s a fiendishly difficult race to solve, with a huge field of 28 going to post.
Some key trends will reduce this somewhat, so let’s see what gives:
1. As with all Cheltenham Festival handicaps, it’s a tough race to concede weight in. No horse has lugged more than 11-03. In a very compact handicap this year, we remove the top dozen runners, including – just – the favourite, Leg Spinner, who carries a pound too much.
2. From the remaining sixteen, consider that the last ten winners were all aged 5-9yo, but furthermore, bear in mind that eight of them were 6-8yo. We’ll eliminate anything not in that midrange. Six more out leaves us with ten.
3. Eight of the last ten winners of this race had between one and four previous runs that season, which removes another trio.
4. Note that the last five winners of the race had already won that season. Two of our remaining seven fail on this score, which leave five.
I couldn’t put you off any of this quintet: Mendo, Clarnazar, Naiad du Misselot, Song Of Songs and Pyleigh Lady. Actually, saying that, Song of Songs has a serious stamina question to answer, but the other four are realistic contenders.
My final note, and the one that gives me my two against the field is that 70% of the winners in the last decade had been 1st or 2nd over the (slightly unfashionable) distance.
The two in here who still match that trend are Mendo and Pyleigh Lady. The latter is game, goes on all ground, and could give you something to shout about at a juicy, fat price: what chance an eye-popping ride from Mr I Popham, claiming seven?!
Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase)
The title says it all. Well nearly. It’s also over a distance of four miles. And 27 fences. Twenty Seven. Fences. Amateur Riders. Four Miles.
It’s just a ridiculous concept for a race, and not really a betting proposition. Last year, Gungadu would have carted up, but for chucking the jockey off after at the penultimate fence. That’s the type of race this is. You need to be fearlessly reckless or recklessly fearless to punt big on it.
Nevertheless, parking my prejudices momentarily, I will share some stats that may (or may not!) persuade you to wager…
Firstly, I will only look at the last six renewals because, in truth, I can’t be arsed to waste my time on more than that!
So, all six winners were aged 7-10, with five of them seven or eight. I’ll side with the latter subset. This narrows twenty started down to eight.
Next, let us eliminate any horse that has not had at least four chase runs (inexperience will see you on your horse’y bum in this contest), as five of the last six winners had relative experience on their side. Another two bite the dust, as they almost certainly will do tomorrow afternoon.
One more point to consider: four of the last six won or were second last time out. It may seem cavalier to use ‘four from six’ as a material statistic, but anyone who wagers in this race is somewhat cavalier in my opinion anyway!
That leaves two. Old Benny and Back On Line. Very small stakes only.
Incidentally, and perhaps a better approach given that four of the last five winners were 25/1, 33/1 (twice) and 40/1, it might be better to suspend the above stats and note that Jonjo O’Neill has a phenomenal record in the race.
He’s saddled four of the last six winners, including 10/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. He runs two this time: Pass It On and King Of Angels, both of which are big prices.
Weatherby’s Champion Bumper
A traditionally hard race to find the winner in, with so many 1’s in the form lines and so many whispers for ‘dark horses’.
Some patterns that might help though, are:
- 8/10 have been five years old (24 down to 16 after this stat is applied)
- 8/10 have been Irish trained (and a further one, Liberman, was bought after winning twice in
- Six of the last eight (and all of the last five) winners have had three or four runs prior to
This leaves us with just three: Corkskeagh Royale, Drive On Regardles, and Pineau De Re. At 11/1, 33/1 and 40/1, why not have a small tickle on all of them?
By the way, you will have noticed a few more bookie ads on this page. They are here for a couple of reasons:
- I consider these to be the most innovative layers, in terms of markets and special offers (and free bets for new customers)
- I get a small ‘kickback’ if you sign up through my link.
So, if a horse you fancy is best priced with one of these bookies, you’d be doing us both a favour by signing up and striking the bet.
I hope you consider the content on here of sufficient value to tolerate my adding these ads. If you’re not interested in their offers, please just ignore them.
(Thanks, public service announcement over!)
(5th Mar) 1 pt win Aigle d’Or (General)
2.35 (26th Feb) 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
(26th Feb) 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair) Non-Runner
3.15 (24th Feb) 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
(24th Feb) 2 pts Voy Por Ustedes 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)
4.00 (11th March) 1.5 pts e/w Mendo (25/1 general)
(11th March) 1 pt e/w Pyleigh Lady (50/1 Bluesq)
4.40 (11th March) 1 pt win Back On Line (11 betfair)
(11th March) 1 pt win Old Benny (16.5 betfair)
(11th March) 1 pt win Pass It On (40/1 General)
(11th March) 1 pt win King Of Angels (66/1 General)
5.20 (11th March) 1 pt win Corkskeagh Royale (12/1 Skybet, betfair)
(11th March) 1 pt win Drive On Regardles (33/1 Ladbrokes)
(11th March) 1 pt win Pineau De Re (110 betfair)
Timeform Top Two
2.00 Breedsbreeze 154p / Aigle d’Or 152p
2.35
3.15 Tamarinbleu 176 / Master Minded 173p
4.00 Leg Spinner 173+ / Whispered Promises 172
4.40 Ornais 155 / Here’s Johnny 149 / Back On Line 149
5.20 Corkskeagh Royale 138 / Zaarito 137p
Nap of the Day
3.15 Aigle d’Or (
Lay of the Day
2.35 Master Minded (just hope he gets back to the stable ok)
Avanti!
Matt