After three days of magnificent and hugely competitive sport, the final quarter is - in my opinion - the best. There are four races that would be the highlight in a month of racing, all sharing one star-crammed card. From Triumph to County, tomorrow will be a day to savour. And, of course, to bet!
Finding winners is often easier in advance (the theory is usually simpler than the practical in my experience, but enough of my bedroom shortcomings!), so let’s get started.
First up, the traditionally insoluble Triumph Hurdle. You get a clue to how difficult this race is when a few years ago, bookies decided to pay out on fourth place! A concession from a bookie is generally an indication of the gravity of a situation. However, in the case of the Triumph, where - despite numerical weight - there are usually only a handful who could be considered the winners.
That, I am convinced, is the case this year. There is a standout form horse, and a few others unexposed enough to potentially win. Forget the rest.
The standout form horse is Lounaos (not sure how you pronounce it, so I’ll be routing for Lunar tomorrow!). She is an Irish filly and carried all before her, prior to running a respectable fourth in the Irish Champion Hurdle. She was beaten only five lengths by Champion Hurdle second Brave Inca (albeit in receipt of nineteen pounds), and that is by a mile the best form in this race.
Given that she is again in receipt of the seven pounds mares’ allowance here, she must have an outstanding chance. Mares do win this, as Snowdrop and others have proved. Is it too daft to nominate a nap of the day in the Triumph Hurdle, a race where the bookies offer four places? Well, I may have been certified gah-gah by this point anyway, so I’m putting this one up as the bet of the day.
Dangers come from the titanium-plated Katchit (I have a saver here because my heart dearly wants him to win); the Mr Ed of the race, Mountain (I’ve heard more rumours about this horse than any other but, ultimately, he’s inexperienced and doesn’t jump very well. That’s not my idea of a bet in the Triumph, despite his unquestionable class); Degas Art (who has never seen a field even a third as big as this before, and again has it to prove. He’s also relatively exposed); Duty (only other Irish contender of note, but not in the same form league as Lounaos); and Liberate (an early fancy for me, but disappointing in a slow run race behind Poquelin, who will probably also run).
For me, Lounaos is a clear selection and, granted sound passages - both across the Irish Sea, and during the race - will be VERY hard to beat.
Next up is the Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle, and results so far this week, as well as form in the book, point again only in one direction. The Lineman from Wichita looks to have a cracking chance in this race, and I don’t oppose him lightly. Nonetheless, I do oppose him.
The next up in the market, and underestimated due to his unheralded (except for TTS readers of course!) stable, is C L Tizzard’s Flight Leader. This horse has top class form, having been third behind Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out. Still available at 6.6 on betfair at the time of writing, I can’t see this one being longer than 9/2 on the day.
There is bound to be solid support for Wichita Lineman, and he may go off around the 6/4 mark. If that’s your idea of getting jam on your bread, good luck to you. I can’t say the horse won’t win, because he very well might. But I’ll be topping up my ante-post ticket on Flight Leader whom, I hope at the line, will be the slight leader.
Then comes the Gold Cup. A wonderful race always, this year will be no exception. The Irish had a field day last year, filling the first three places (with the French back in fourth!). This year, they look to have a weakened hand, with Beef or Salmon, Cane Brake and Forget The Past headed their assault. The first named cleans up in Ireland but has proven before he doesn’t travel well, and is a big place lay for me. In fact, he’s a dodgy jumper and - I suspect - will fail to complete (as he has done two out of four times previously here). Cane Brake has done nothing wrong in heavy ground handicaps, but that’s hardly what you need to win here, so I oppose him lightly too. Forget The Past is probably the pick of the three, and finished third last year. He ran a stinker last time, which was not his running, and I can see him sneaking the frame again this year, without being good enough to win.
Of the British horses in the race, the key for sure is Kauto Star. Despite all of the negative noises made about him, he is a mile clear on form. At less than 2/1 I’d be happy to pass him up, but if he goes 9/4 or 5/2 he becomes very interesting. If he stands up and stays, he wins. [Yes, I do understand the magnitude of those two imponderables!]
I have made no secret of backing Exotic Dancer at huge odds (average odds of 85.66 to be precise!), and will be cheering him home. He travels supremely well and generally is a sound jumper. Whether he’s good enough, we’ll learn tomorrow.
I don’t really like much else in the race, but an honourable mention for State of Play, who is clearly progressive as well, and comes from a very shrewd yard. He does however have to defy a break of nearly four months since his impressive seasonal debut, which puts me off.
After the ballyhoo of the main event, comes the tallyho of the Foxhunters. By now you will know my views on the amateur rider races. However, I actually think this race is a decent betting proposition. Of course, you still need a bit of luck in running, but there are generally only half a dozen who can win, and some of them are put up at decent prices.
The favourite, and most likely winner, is last year’s champ, Whyso Mayo. Unbeaten since his triumph last year (including in the Champion Hunter Chase at the Punchestown Festival), and available at 3/1, I reckon this is a decent bet and will be availing myself of the ‘carpet’ (that’s 3/1 to you).
Elsewhere in the lineup, plenty of fondly remembered names from yesteryear (or last year anyway), and plenty of deadwood. Scything through the extinct xylem, I’d put up the unexposed Honourable Spider as the best each way bet (available at 14/1), though his inexperience may count against him in this race. Granted a clear run, he could give the Mayo some food for thought (sorry, that’s awful).
The only other one worthy of a mention for me is Christy Beamish, who chased home Katarino in the Aintree Foxhunters’ last year, and was clear of the rest. He’s in the book at a very tasty 25/1, and when he wins, I want you all to say ‘thank you Matt’!
Those are my three, and the ones who get round will go close.
Which just leaves us with the County Hurdle. Its an impossible race, and if you need to get out here, the best of luck to you! I will be having five pounds of interest only. If I’m losing going into the race, I will just wipe my mouth and accept that there will be no redemption here.
For what its worth (very little), my thoughts on the winner are Ouninpohja has a very similar profile to last year’s winner and this year’s topweight, Desert Quest. He’s also owned, trained and ridden by last year’s team. He’ll do for me, despite reservations about his temperament. The horse has tons of class and will travel like a dream in the race.
I’d love to see Fair Along win, but won’t be backing the Arkle second. As game as he is, that race must have left its mark.
Callow Lake from the shrewd and Festival winning stable of Jessie Harrington is also respected.
That’s my lot, and I remain confident of surviving at worst and, who knows?, maybe even stealing a small profit over the four days.
I hope that, as you read this, you’re still in the game and enjoying this equine extravaganza as much as this humble scribe.
Matt