Trawling through all the stats and data from previous Cheltenham Festival’s while researching this years trends guide I found some pretty interesting, and some not so interesting, bits of trivia.

Here are a few little tit-bits you may (or may not) like to note…..

Breeding

- Montjeu has never sired the winner of a Cheltenham Festival race.
I don’t know how relevant this stat is but I read it somewhere while doing my research and thought it was quite interesting. Both Orzare and Capenallus, who are highly fancied for the Fred Winter handicap hurdle, are by Montjeu.

- All 17 winners of the Bumper race have been sired by 17 different horses.
A stat that probably highlights more that I have too much time on my hands rather than pointing us in the direction of the winner. But if you are persuaded by this particular trend you won’t want to back Drumbaloo, Blue Monster, Dare Me, Dunraven Storm, On His Own, Swing State or Tacern Times as their sires have already won the Bumper.

- French breds have a tremendous record in all Festival chases up to 2m5f.

There are currently six such races run at the festival and last year French Bred’s won 4 of the 6. But for Kalahari King being a short head 2nd and Voy Por Ustedes also filling that same finishing position they would have had  the clean sweep. In 2007 they won 5 of the 6 races.

The race that this is most evident in is the Festival Plate run on the Thursday. 6 of the last 10 winners have all been French Bred’s and the 4 years that they missed out they managed to provide the runner-up. Our big tip last year Something Wells was French as were the second and third home in the race

Handicaps

- In the two new novice handicaps (Fred Winter & Jewson Chase) all 10 winners took until at least their third run to win over the respective obstacles.

Using this trend you would have been able to dismiss the 2009 favourite for the Fred Winter Alexander Severus, the 2008 beaten favourite Ashkazar plus the 2009 Jewson Novice favourite Kia Kaha.

Looking to this years Festival, the first four in the betting for the Jewson Novice Chase all fail this trend (Hey Big Spender, The Hollinwell, Sunnyhill Boy and Rivaliste) as do well fancied runners, Open Day and Orzare, in the Fred Winter.

Trainers

We all know the Irish have a great record in the Bumper but it’s not until you delve a bit deeper than you see just how dominant there runners really are. Yes, they’ve won the race 14 out of the 17 times it’s been run but did you know that for the last 3 years they have had 21 of the first 24 horses home?

In 2007 there were 24 runners of which 50% were trained in Britain. The best we could manage was 6th.
In 2008 there were 23 runners and just under 50% (11 of the 23) were British trained. A little better, we managed 4th and 8th
but in 2009 we put up our worst defence ever with a 9th place the best we could muster. Admittedly we Brits had said enough-is-enough and accounted for only 1/3 of the field (8 of 24)

Still fancy Al Ferof from the Paul Nicholls stable?

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Nicky Henderson looks to have a very strong team this year and there’s bound to be plenty of support for his runners but in certain races he’s definitely worth taking on.

NIM Novices Hurdle. The second race on the Wednesday is run over 2m5f but don’t expect Mr Henderson’s charges to be challenging for honours as the runners bound up the hill. In his illustrious training career he has tried with 20 horses to win this race all without success. In fact since 1990 the best he has managed is 7th place. When you look at some of his runners in this time you start to wonder why he still bothers trying.

Last year Mad Max was the 6/1 fourth favourite who laboured home in 8th. Travado in 1992 was 15/2 and fourth favourite but could manage only 7th. Aigle d’Or in 2008 actually went off the 4/1 favourite but never gave his supporters any hope and finished a tailed off last of 13 finishers. In 2007 Duc De Regnierre was a 9/1 fifth favourite who could only manage 13th out of 14. In 2003 while most people were watching Hardy Eustace fight out an exciting finish with Pizzaro and Coolnagorna Nicky Henderson’s binoculars would have been focused further down the field as his Calling Brave came home stone cold last of the 17 finishers. You get the picture….

Finians Rainbow and Quantativeeasing are both very prominent in the betting for Nicky Henderson this year.

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They don’t come much bigger than trainer, Paul Nicholl’s and he’s got a formidable team assembled for this years Festival but beware his runner in the 4 mile NH chase on the Wednesday. He’s had just 1 placed runner from 12 starters, which in itself should set the alarm bells ringing, but when you consider that 9 of these 12 runners were in the top 5 of the betting it’s time to start a full scale panic!

With the 9/2 favourite in 2008, 2/1 favourite in 2007, 10/1 3rd favourite in 2006 and the 5/1 favourite in 2004 (Silver Birch) amongst his losers it should make you think twice about steaming into current 6/1 jolly Massosoit

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Form

 When looking at the handicap hurdles at the Festival it may sound obvious but it’s worth saying anyway, last time out winners have a fantastic record in these types of races. When looking through the fields of runners you’ll usually find only about 1 in 5 (20%) satisfy this stat but these runners have provided the winner of over 50% of all handicap hurdles run at the festival since 1994.

In the Coral Cup 6 of the last 7 winners were successful last time out as were the first three home in both 2008 & 2009. In 2007 there were only 2 last time out winners in a field of 28 runners but they still managed to provide the 10/1 winner with Burntoakboy. It’s the same story for the Pertemps Final where 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out. In 2009 just three horses lined up on the back of a win but out of a field of 24 they were still responsible for the 16/1 winner Kayf Aramis.

Betting

With such competitive racing and usual big fields it’s really not that surprising to find favourites having a terrible record in certain races. Only 2 of the last 17 Arkles have gone the way of the market leader, in the 4 mile NH Chase there hasn’t been an outright favourite win since 1992 and 6 of the last 9 winners of the Foxhunters returned 14/1 or bigger.

But, that’s not to say that fancied horses don’t regularly win certain races. Those looking for an outsider to back may want to steer clear of The Gold Cup as all of the last 9 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting, or the RyanAir chase where all 5 winners returned 6/1 or under, or the Neptune Novices Hurdle which has seen 22 of the last 24 winners come from the front 6 in the market.

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I hope you found something of interest in amongst that little lot and they help you pinpoint a winner or avoid backing a loser.

If it’s got you wanting more stats, figures and trends then our 2010 Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide is now available for purchase. All 26 races due to be run at the Festival are covered and it currently runs to 129 pages.

It’s just £19.95 which works out at less than £1 a race.

Our eagerly anticipated 4 for the Handicaps, which last year highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells, will be out on Monday.

Get your copy from here>>>2010 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TRENDS GUIDE

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Good luck,
Gavin.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 5th, 2010 at 8:12 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.