As placepot busters go, dear reader, the Triumph Hurdle is right up there with the best of them usually. So much so that, in a rare concession from bookmakers, you can get a quarter the odds the first four places in this race, and fourth counts on the placepot too.
Of course, the bookies aren’t prone to wanton acts of charity, and the average field size in the past ten runnings has been 24.5 (I feel like I’ve usually backed the half a horse in this race too!), so you’ve still to get past twenty animals and my ‘mezzo’…
No matter. A key stat which quickly brings the 74 entries down to size is that 9 from the last ten winners had won last time out (the other was beaten half a length in a Grade 2).
From 74, we now have just 14 to evaluate. That’s more like it, though paring them down further is a little less swingeing…
All of the last ten winners had a Racing Post Rating of 120 or more prior to the race (7/10 had 130+), which gets shot of just one.
All bar Commanche Court in 1997 (i.e. the last nine winners) had had at least three runs prior to Triumph day, and this scratches a further trio, leaving a round ten.
Aside from Snow Drop, who hadn’t run in a race rated for Topspeed, the other nine winners had run a triple figure Topspeed number. (6/9 had run 110+). Two double digit crawlers get their coats and head for the exit.
Now then, consider this… The Triumph Hurdle is a race restricted to four year olds, and they are pretty much always Flat bred animals. All bar one from the last ten winners (with a Flat rating) had run up to 80+ on the level.
A pedestrian quartet, including short priced ante post favourite Franchoek bite the dust (the other three are C’Est Ca, Hibiki - who won today… in his own time, and Personal Column).
Four left standing, but all of the last ten Triumphant hurdlers have started at odds of 20/1 or shorter.
The two likely market fancies in the final four are Ashkazar and Serabad. Both have been beaten by Franchoek, and I fear that the Flat stat could be our undoing.
Nevertheless, in a race where you need more than a little luck in running, as well as bags of talent, I will side with Serabad, who has twice been competitive with Franchoek, and who is available at TEN times the price on betfair. [Be aware that betfair offer only THREE places on the race!]
Given that there are four places with the traditional bookmakers, I’ve made a fairly confident each way wager. (Note, although he is available at 25/1 still in a number of places, he is trading at 20’s and shorter in lots of books too, and I am confident he’ll meet the price criterion come the hour).
Ashkazar, although I like him from a stats angle, it would be prudent to wait until the day, as the Racing Post reports that the owner (David Johnson) is no fan of this race. It’s fair to say that many promising hurdling careers have ended in the first race on the last day of the Festival. So, hold fire, and go in on the day if he lines up.
2pts win Serabad at 32 (betfair)
1pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)
Portfolio to date
JCB Triumph Hurdle
28th Feb 2 pts win Serabad 32 (betfair)
28th Feb 1 pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)
Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase
26th Feb 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
26th Feb 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair)
Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)
Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)
Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)