It may be a new flat season but it looks as though nothing as changed for me, well except for having another second to add to my collection. This time it’s Mull Of Killough in the Lincoln  who needed another yard or so to get my flat season, and the trends, off to a flyer. As Mario Balotelli would say ‘why always me?‘.

Never mind, I’m sure it won’t be the last runner up I back this year. Let’s see if we can get back on track and find a winner or two this afternoon at Donnie…..

I’m not even going to attempt to find the winner in the first as most have been running, poorly, on the All Weather and all are ridden by amateurs.

The second however looks a pretty decent maiden and I like the chances of Sequoia who ran fourth in two better class races in July last year. The winners of both those two races went on to run in Group / Listed races and with the step up to 7f looking ideal I think Sequoia should have no trouble in picking up this maiden.

The bookies bet 9/1 the field in the third and having looked at the race I reckon that might be a little tight! I’m going to take a chance on an ex-Richard Hannon inmate who has plumetted in the ratings and now looks handicapped to win for his new trainer. Oratory was quite highly tried at the beginning of last Season and then when he was finally dropped in grade he managed a fair 3rd in a Beverley handicap from top weight. Just when it looked as though the horse was coming back to form the trainer went and stepped him up in trip from 7f to 10f for his last two runs of the season which unsurprisingly saw him finish well beaten both times. If the intention was to reduce his handicap mark a bit more it worked and he now sits on a rating of 78 (he was rated as high as 96 when with Hannon). So he starts this season on a handy mark and running over his optimum trip with Robert Winston booked to do the steering. He’s got to be worth a punt at 25/1.

Jeepers. 22 runners in a 6f handicap! 5/1 the field this time so it must be a little easier to solve. Yeah right. Gary has Star Rover running for his sprinters list at 33/1 and we both have this blogs favourite pig, Docofthebay, running for us but I’m going with another outsider who has his first run for a new trainer. No Hubris hasn’t run over 6f since going off the second favourite for the Coventry Stakes in 2009 when finishing 6th to Canford Cliffs. Looking at his form is quite revealing as his form on Good to Firm reads 6th of 13, 9th of 9, 7th of 7, 11th of 11, 2nd of 6 and 11th of 11. Stone cold last in 4 of his 6 runs on firmish going. On good ground his form is 1st, 1st, 5th (of 30), 3rd and 11th. First time up his form is 112 but when asked to race within a month of his last run it becomes 6th-last-last-last-last-3rd. Let’s hope Ruth Carr can rekindle some of his old form on his first run of the season and on good ground. At 33/1 he just has to be worth a few quid each way.

In the 3.55 Side Glance looks a good thing on the form book and will be my bet here at anything above evens.

The clear top rated horse in the next hasn’t run for nearly two years so can’t be a confident selection at a short price so I’ll skip that race and head to the 5.05 where I’m taking on the three once-raced-once-won horses in the field with Montaser. He also won his first race and then headed to Ayr for a class 2 handicap where he finished a staying on second in soft ground. This better ground should suit and he looks the value amongst the market leaders.

Which leaves us with the second division of the 7f handicap. It’s another super-tricky race and again I’ll be playing for small stakes, this time on the Dandy Nichols trained George Benjamin who is another horse best followed fresh at the start of the Season. He’s back down to a reasonable looking mark that is just 1lb more than when winning nicely first time up last Season. 7f is his trip and good ground should be no problem. At 16/1 we can back him each way.

SELECTIONS:

2.10 SEQUOIA
2.45 ORATORY (EW 25/1)
3.20 NO HUBRIS (EW 33/1)
3.55 SIDE GLANCE
5.05 MONTASER
5.35 GEORGE BENJAMIN (EW 16/1)

———–

In a nailbiting match between Inter Penarth and Park Lions yesterday morning, fortunes tood and froed before the final result saw a fair 2-2 draw. Dylan scored both Inter Pernarth goals (again!) and now has 36 for the Season. He had a chance to make it 3-2 in the dying minutes after a fantastic run down the left wing left two Lions players wondering which way he went. Unfortunately the shot went inches wide but I had a couple of parents come up to me after the final whistle to say that it was a shame it didn’t go in as it would have been the best goal they’ve seen all Season and, even as biased as I am, I would have to agree! The way he skipped over the challenge of the last defender to leave himself clear against the keeper was pure class. I really wish I had taken my video camera. They now have an Easter break so we’ll have to put the goal scoring boots away and resume his quest for 50 goals in a couple of weeks time.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Gary did the sprinters on Monday and then I followed up with the 3yo’s on Tuesday which leaves the older handicappers and the Group runners to go.

I noted a number of horses throughout last Season and have added a few more that now appear well handicapped to give 10 horses which will hopefully prove profitable to follow this year……

FRATELLINO (A. McCabe) - 5yo

He ran a brilliant 2nd in the sprint handicap on 1000 Guineas Day last May and I spent the rest of last Season waiting for him to run again. But he never did. We didn’t actually see him again until January this year when he started out on the All Weather. He’s now run 5 times on the artificial surfaces and capped off a fine return to sprinting when taking the Listed 5f race at Lingfield last Saturday. This means he now has an AW rating of 100 but his turf mark is unchanged at 92 and I’m still hopeful that my patience will pay off with a big handicap sprint win on the turf this year. He has a couple of engagements this weekend at Doncaster.

BRIDLE BELLE (R. FAHEY) - 4yo

She was another horse to run on 1000 Guineas Day last year where she finished a creditable 3rd to Buthelezi (ran in the St Leger) and Barbican (Listed race winner since). She disappointed on firm ground at Musselburgh next time out but won her next start on Good to Soft at Ripon. A 6lb rise for that win did for her at Glorious Goodwood the time after that but a 6th of 15 in a very competitive Ascot handicap on her next run was a great run as she was beaten less than 2 lengths by top weight Barbican. She’s been dropped a couple of pounds since that run and comes into this season looking nicely handicapped. On good ground or softer at around 12f there’s a decent race to be won with her.

FAREER (E. DUNLOP) - 6yo

He’s rated 103 so is a horse stuck between running in the best handicaps off big weights or trying his luck in Listed/Group races. Neither of these options proved that lucrative last Season but I’m convinced they’re running him over the wrong trip. I’d love to see him drop down in distance and be entered in one of the big 7f handicaps that Ascot stage throughout the year. In last years Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot he lumped top weight and made rapid progress approaching the furlong pole only to fade into 8th through the final stages. Nothing was going better at 7f and everything I’ve seen of him since leads me to think that from a 6lb lower mark he has to be worth chancing over a shorter distance.

TROVARE (A. PERRETT) - 5yo

Here’s one we made need to come down a couple of pounds in the ratings before getting involved. He started last Season so well but his form tailed off significantly and although he managed a win over hurdles last Autumn he finished the year beating only 2 horses in his last 2 runs. Connections have given him plenty of time to freshen up and he starts this Season on a mark of 80 which is just 3lb higher than his last winning mark. He goes well at Newmarket, loves firm ground and needs a trip of 12f+.

TROPICAL BEAT (JOHN GOSDEN) - 4yo

I noted this horse when he ran in last years Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot. This annual cavalry charge usually throws up a decent horse or two and despite only finishing 10th Tropical Beat was beaten less than 4 lengths. This was after being hampered and denied a clear run on more than one occasion. The way he finished here and in his next race marked him down as a horse needing a step up to 10f so it was very disappointing to see him run so poorly over that trip at the Glorious Goodwood meeting next time. Not every horse can handle a big field at that course so I’m keeping the faith and giving him another chance to shine over 10f this Season.

STAFF SERGEANT (JIM GOLDIE) - 5yo

One for the lower class Northern racing scene. He’s been sent off as favourite on 4 of his last 5 starts but has yet to show the form that his connections were hoping for on the track. That’s not to say he hasn’t run well as he made the runner up spot twice and the top 5 in 16 runner handicaps on another two occasions. His main problem seems to be that he’s not quite able to finish his races off and looks a little one paced in the last half furlong. His trainer started him off as 10f horse at the beginning of the Season and ended it with him contesting 7f-8f  races and I think he needs a step back up in trip. There aren’t too many 9f races but that would look the perfect sort of distance for Staff Sergeant. He’s maintained a rating of 77-79 for all of those last 5 runs and should be able to pick up a class 3 or 4 race up North somewhere.

QUIZ MISTRESS (G. BUTLER) - 4yo

To look at her form figures you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d lost the plot with this one. I probably have but I noted her when finishing 2nd in a couple of longer distance races late last Summer. Both times she battled really well only to lose out both times to well handicapped improving runners. On her next three starts (including being outclassed in Listed company) she has been ridden closer to the pace and this style of racing doesn’t suit her. She needs to be held up at the back and produced at around the 2 furlong marker. All of her best runs have come in races where she has been ridden this way and under a more restrained ride can finally get back to winning ways.

ZIGATO (JOHN GOSDEN) - 5yo

Holds the dubious title of  ‘given the worst ride of 2011‘ when at Royal Ascot William Buick thought he was on Pegasus and held his mount up last for 18 of the 20 furlongs before realising that there were only 2 furlongs to go. Unfortunately by the time he had worked all this out there was a wall of 18 horses in front of him and he had no place to go. He panicked, went wide and, although Zigato did a good impression of Pegasus, he could only manage 4th. How unlucky the horse was did not escape the handicapper as, in a rare move, he rubbed salt into connections wounds by hiking the horse up by 3lb for finishing 4th! He’ll be a major player in all the staying handicaps this year.

I’ve saved the best until last…….

FASTNET STORM (D. BARRON) - 6yo

This is one incredibly well handicapped horse and I’ll be shocked if he can’t win at least one race this year off his current rating. He’s spent the majority of the last 3 Seasons running off marks in the 80’s and low 90’s with the odd win here and there plus plenty of solid place efforts. He managed a 3rd place finish in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket from a career high mark of 92 in October 2009, won in 2010 from a rating of 86 and was beaten just over 2 lengths by Green Destiny in October 2010 giving that runner 13lb! Even in July last year he was running second off 84 yet just 6 races later he has slumped to 73 which is his lowest mark since he ran second at Newmarket in September 2008 as a 72 rated horse. Granted he went off the boil last Summer/Autumn but he came back after a Winter break to finish a close 4th on the AW and heads into the turf season with a great chance to get back on the winning trail. All ground comes alike and he’ll probably be running over distances of 8-10f.

Tomorrow I’ll be having a look at the older runners who’ll be contesting the Group races this year.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Today I will be turning my attention to the Classic generation to try and unearth a potential star or two. Everyone knows about Aiden O’Brien’s Camelot so I’ll leave him out and look for some that you may have forgotten from last year……

JUNGLE BEAT (John Gosden)
Form: 1-

He only had the one race as a 2yo but was sent off a well backed 9/4 fav so you could assume the stable knew they had a good one here. The race was a Class 4 maiden at Newbury in July and despite running a little green Jungle Beat was able to come home 2 lengths in front of the subsequent dual winner Farhaan. The way he quickened up and stayed on strongly through the final two furlongs marked him down as a colt to follow this year.

BONFIRE (Andrew Balding)
Form: 13-

We didn’t see Bonfire on the track until the end of September but he looked worth waiting for as he stormed to a 2 length win despite not having the clearest of runs throughout the race. The runner up in the race went on to win next time out in a class 5 maiden at Nottingham while Bonfire had his sights raised a little higher and was sent to France for the Group 1 Criterium International. Again he met trouble in running and only found racing room late on. Despite staying on very strongly he was unable to make up the lost ground and had to settle for third place. He has only raced on soft ground but looks a stayer in the making and his Derby entry doesn’t look too ambitious.

MUTASADDER (Roger Varian)
Form: 4-

This one’s a real dark horse as he’s had just the one run when he finished 4th behind Assizes in a decent looking maiden at Newbury last October. Showing signs of greeness Mutasadder was ridden to challenge just before the furlong pole and stayed pressing the leaders until weakening in the final stages of the race. He looked sure to improve for the experience and should have no problem picking up an early season maiden before going on to better things.

RECKONING (Jeremy Noseda) and HEPWORTH (John Gosden)
Form: 1 and Form: 2

It was only a class 5 maiden at Doncaster that these two fillies ran in at the back end of last Season but they fought out a marvellous finish in a fast time and had 12 lengths to spare over the 3rd horse home. Reckoning cruised through to take it up 2 furlongs from home and looked like winning very easily but after running green and hanging left she only got the win by3/4 of a length from a very fast finishing Hepworth who came from a long way back. They looked two very smart fillies who definitely need looking out for this Season.

ENCKE (Mahmood Al Zarooni)
Form: 21

The late season Newmarket maidens are notoriously difficult to win with all the top Newmarket trainers unleashing their 2yo batallions around this time so it must have been a very impressive performance from Encke as he managed to win one of these races by 4 1/2 lengths. This was ample compensation for his previous run at Doncaster where he had moved effortlessly to the front and looked the certain winner only to be edged out in the last strides by Perennial. He made no such mistakes at Newmarket where he settled the race in a matter of strides, bounding clear at the furlong pole to win by over 4 lengths. He holds a Derby entry and should be suited by middle distances.

INITIATOR (Jeremy Noseda)
Form: 4

Another dark horse with just the one run under his belt. He finished 4th in a big field, mid season, Newmarket maiden when quite well fancied in the betting. Nothing went right for Initiator from the start as he was slowly away and was playing catch up from then on. He got himself back into the race and put down his challenge approaching the furlong pole but ran out of stamina and weakened in the last half a furlong to finish 4th. Johhny Murtagh was very easy on him once his chance had gone and with the valuable experience gained from this run Initiator looks a winner waiting to happen.

MR SPIGGOTT (Mick Channon)
Form: 411-

He won’t be winning any Classics as he has some important bits of his anatomy missing for that but he is definitely one to look out for in the big 3yo handicaps this year. In three runs last year he went from a staying on also ran in a Yarmouth maiden to narrow maiden winner at Newcastle to impressive handicap winner at Haydock. The nursery Mr Spiggott won at Haydock was only a class 4 race but was full of runners from the top stables and looked well above average for the grade. After settling him in the rear Tony Culhane made his move as they approached the furlong pole and then pushed him out to withold the determined challenge of Frankie Dettori’s mount Grizzle by 1/2 length. This was the same distance he had beaten the runner up at Newcastle despite being 5lb worse off at the weights. With Grizzle winning his next race the form looks go0d and I reckon Mr Spiggott should be able to nab some decent handicaps this term starting from a 5lb higher mark.

USAIN COLT (Richard Hannon)
Form: 61-

With it being Olympic year the owners should have a lot of fun with this horse over the course of the Season and being trained by one of the top stables in the country means we can justify including him in our list of horses to follow. He didn’t get his career off to the best of starts when finishing 6th of 9 in a Newbury maiden at the end of July but showed much more when returning to the same track in October by running out a convincing winner of a 7f class 4 maiden. The 3rd horse has come out and won since and from a current rating of 87 I’d like to think Usain Colt should be able to pick up a handicap or two this Season.

And if you’re looking for an unraced horse then I’ve heard good things about the Sir Henry Cecil French-bred colt DR YES who is the first foal of Sir Henry’s Oaks winner Light Shift.

Next up in the 10 to follow lists will be the older handicappers.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ll be publishing a series of 10 to follow’s this week and then on Friday I’ll put them all together in a pdf so you can download it and keep for reference during the Summer flat season.

We’ll begin with the sprinters and Gary’s list of the speedsters that he thinks are worth looking out for…..

BLUE JACK (GB)

Trainer: TOM DASCOMBE Rating: 94 Age: 7yo 2011 Form: 70067-

Wins/Runs: 8/37  Best Trip: 5F 8/23 Worst Trip: 6F 0/14

Summary: He didn’t have a very good 2011 season, having only beaten 20 of the 71 horses he ran against. His highest winning rating was achieved in 2010 when winning a Listed race off a mark of 109. His highest winning handicap mark was 97, so now back down to a good competitive rating of 94 he could find the winning ways again this season providing they keep him to 5 furlongs. He has won 3 of his 8 races in July with 1 each in April, May, June, August and October. All 8 wins came when the ground was riding between good/soft and good/firm. He has had 3 attempts on the AW with a record of 0/3, having said that they were in his younger days as he hasn’t tried the surface since 2008.

NOBLE STORM (USA)

Trainer: ED MACMAHON Rating: 108 Age: 6yo 2011 Form: 1219

Wins/Runs: 8/27 Best Trip: 5F 6/21 Worst Trip: 6F+

Summary: Started his career over 6F, winning twice on a soft surface but since the start of his 3yo career he has done all bar one of his runs over 5F. He has developed into a high class sprinter who won a Class 2 handicap off a rating of 102. If returning in similar form this summer he should develop into a Group race runner.

LUTINE BELL (GB)

Trainer: MIKE MURPHY Rating: 93 Age: 5yo 2011 Form: 40462292080-

Wins/Runs: 3/25 Best Trip: 6F 1/8 Worst Trip: 7F+ 1/15

Summary: A very consistent 2011 season despite not managing to win a race. With 2 of his 3 career wins coming on the AW and all 3 over different distances it seems his trainer is undecided about what his ideal trip is or which surface to run him on. It’s my view that 6/7F will prove to be his best trip and I can see this one picking up a major 7F handicap at some point this season.

PARISIAN PYRAMID (IRE)

Trainer: KEVIN RYAN Rating: 93 Age: 6yo 2011 Form: 0834209500-

Wins/Runs: 3/41 Best Trip: 6F 3/30 Worst Trip: 5F 0/5

Summary: He reached a career high rating of 99 in late 2010. He didn’t have a particularly good year in 2011 although he still managed a good 2nd in a big field at York. His best form seems to come on decent ground as all 3 career wins have come when the ground is riding good or good/firm. On really soft ground he has been very disappointing, as he has over 5furlongs. His best performances seem to come over 6F on decent ground when ridden up with the pace.

STAR ROVER (IRE)

Trainer: DAVID EVANS Rating: 83 Age: 5yo 2011 Form: 5248820846263143985300707-

Wins/Runs: 7/55 Best Trip: 5F 7/28 Worst Trip: 6F+ 0/27

Summary: A very speedy sort who won his first 4 career runs as a 2yo. All his 7 career wins have come over 5 furlongs so be careful when he tries a longer trip as his 0/27 record shows. His last 10 career runs have all been over 6 and 7 furlongs and as a result his rating has dropped by 10lb. So it might be that he starts 2012 on a very decent mark.

MISTER HUGHIE (IRE)

Trainer: TIM EASTERBY Rating: 98 Age: 5yo 2011 Form: 000607-

Wins/Runs: 5/28 Best Trip: 6F 2/14 Worst Trip: –

Summary: Not won a race since winning the 2010 Beverley Bullet by a short head from Prohibit (won Group 1 in 2011). He never really got going last season and as a result dropped a few lb’s in the handicap. He is a very capable sprinter who could bounce back to form this season and if able to recapture some of his old form he could develop into a Listed class horse. He needs a sound surface to be seen at his best.

BARNEY MCGREW (IRE)

Trainer: MICHAEL DODS Rating: 86 Age: 9yo 2011 Form: 8340000070035-

Wins/Runs: 7/58 Best Trip: 5F 1/8 Worst Trip: 8F+ 0/2

Summary: He never made the racecourse as a 2yo and only made his debut in September 2006. He started out running in 3yo Maidens over 7 furlongs and mainly on the AW. It wasn’t until the summer of 2007 that he had his first attempt at 6 furlongs. Because of his consistent form his handicap mark crept up to a point where he qualified to run in Dubai. So 2010 and 2011 seasons started with runs at Meydan with a rating in the low 100’s. He reached a career high rating of 108 in 2010 when he won a Group 3 at Haydock. His highest winning handicap rating was 100 in April 2009. He has won 4 times over 6 furlongs but as he has got older his better runs have come over 5 furlongs and all his winning form is on good or good/firm going. His current rating of 86 looks very attractive and I’m sure his shrewd trainer will find plenty of opportunites to exploit it.

GALLAGHER (GB)

Trainer: RUTH CARR Rating: 77 Age: 6yo 2011 Form: 0000900-

Wins/Runs: 2/29 Best Trip: 6F 1/12 Worst Trip: 5F 0/2

Summary: Started his career as a highly successful 2yo which included running in a Group 1 and reaching a career high rating of 118 when running at Royal Ascot in 2009. He managed a conditions race win when rated 116 in July 2009 but he hasn’t won since and as a direct result his rating has dropped over 20lb in the last 12 months alone. He spent last summer running in plenty of the highest quality handicaps and now needs to find both a trip and races that will suit his current ability. If the spark can be rekindled then he is a very well treated horse for this summer. Good/firm going appears to be his liking and a trip of either 6 or 7 furlongs.

STRIKING SPIRIT (GB)

Trainer: TIM EASTERBY Rating: 89 Age: 7yo 2011 Form: 05503000040-

Wins/Runs: 3/35 Best Trip: 6F 3/25 Worst Trip: 5F 0/5

Summary: He reached a career high of 100 in August 2009 and he seems equally as effective at 6 or 7 furlongs but definitely one to avoid over 5 furlongs. He ran some great races in defeat last season. He is now 5lb below the rating that saw him run 2nd in the Wokingham of 2009. All 3 career wins have come on good/firm going but he has some good soft ground form as well. He has yet to race on the AW.

MAYSON (GB)

Trainer: RICHARD FAHEY Rating: 100 Age: 4yo 2011 Form: 30342-

Wins/Runs: 2/11 Best Trip: 6F 1/6 Worst Trip: –

Summary: The youngest of my 10 to follow at only 4 years old.  As a 3yo he contested both the Great St Wilfred where he finished a very creditable 3rd and the Ayr Gold Cup. He could easily develop into a Group class runner this season and with a rating of 100 it will be interesting to see where his trainer starts his 4yo career off.

————–

My thanks to Gary for providing the list. I hope you find something of use with them and they help you find some winners this Summer.

Tomorrow I’ll be taking a look at some 3yo’s who might be worth watching out for.

FOOTBALL RESULT: Inter Penarth came back from 1 nil down to win 2-1 on Saturday with Dylan scoring both goals (despite playing in defence this week!). That’s now 34 for the Season as he chases the club record of 49.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I have a small number of Trends books left over that weren’t sold before Cheltenham. Only 2 of the 30 races covered in the book were at the Festival so there are still 28 races left to go this year.

Here’s what Craig thought of his copy

‘Thanks for the book Gavin. It arrived this morning. If I can’t win at least £7.50 using the stats. in this book I really shouldn’t be betting at all! In fact I think I’ll have no trouble making enough profit to buy out Waterstones.

It’s a fantastic piece of work and very pleasing on the eye too.In this age where e-books rule the world, it makes a pleasant change to have something for my money that I can fondle whilst perusing the runners and riders! ‘

STOP PRESS: 10/1 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders and Ashes fitted all the trends contained in the book.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get;

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

If you want a copy they are now half price at just £7.50 (including P&P). The book will be sent out straight away.

There’s now no need to join the Festival Trends service it’s a one click payment using the button below……

It’s one of those weekends where nothing much is happening on the racing front. The jumps are in the inbetween stage of the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals and the turf flat doesn’t start until next week. So we’re left with a fairly decent AW card which would make a good support card but as the main meeting of the day exposes just how poor a days racing we have. Jumps fans have Newbury to look forward to, which again is fairly decent, but doesn’t excite me while the three other jumps fixtures look very poor.

I’ll be having one bet today in the AW Derby and that’s it. I’ll be keeping the rest of my bankroll nice and safe ready for Aintree.

 The horse I’m interested in is SOORAAH who looks to have a lot going for her. She’s always looked like a horse who needed a step up in trip and although she has won over a mile this 10f trip should suit her perfectly. On numerous occasions she has been doing all her best work at the finish including in a mile Listed race over the course last October when she finished 2nd to Clinical. A win in Dubai back in February was sandwiched in between two runs in Group company that, not surprisingly, proved too much for her given the quality of the opposition. With a handy sex allowance, Ryan Moore on board, course form and a step up in trip I make her the bet of the day.

Selection: SOORAAH 11/2

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On the blog next week I’ll be counting down to the start of the flat season with a series of posts featuring horses to follow for 2012. Gary has kindly provided a list of sprinters to look out for and that’s where we’ll be starting on Monday followed by the 3yo’s, handicappers and Group horses. To give you a taster of what’s to come here’s a spinter from Gary’s list that has an engagement at Lingfield this afternoon…..

 BLUE JACK (GB)

TRAINER : TOM DASCOMBE

RATING   : 94 AGE : 7

2011 FORM : 70067- WINS/RUNS : 8/37 BEST TRIP : 5F (8/23) WORST TRIP : 6F (0/14)

Summary: He didn’t have a very good 2011 season, having only beaten 20 of the 71 horses he ran against. His highest winning rating was achieved in 2010 when winning a Listed race off a mark of 109. His highest winning handicap mark was 97, so now back down to a good competitive rating of 94 he could find the winning ways again this season providing they keep him to 5 furlongs. He has won 3 of his 8 races in July with 1 each in April, May, June, August and October. All 8 wins came when the ground was riding between good/soft and good/firm. He has had 3 attempts on the AW with a record of 0/3, having said that they were in his younger days as he hasn’t tried the surface since 2008.

Be sure to check in next week to get your lists of the horses to follow for 2012.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I had a fairly average Cheltenham this year with the odd nice winner here and there covering the losses on the more frequent loser here, there and (nearly) everywhere. My ante-post bets did show a decent profit though with Cinders And Ashes and Teaforthree winning well and Smad Place nicking a place in the World Hurdle to reward my 50/1 ante-post voucher. If For Non Stop had won the Jewson it would have been a different story entirely but he was no match for the classy Sir Des Champs and for once there were no hard luck stories. The Tuesday was a break even day (started well but finished badly), Wednesday was a winning one (Teaforthree made sure of that), Thursday was a small winner (thanks to Gary’s Cape tribulation) while Friday was a small loser with the damage being limited thanks to Hisaabaat, Grand Vision and The Giant Bolster all making the frame.

The undoubted highlight of the week though was Gary’s incredible tipping at Cheltenham (again!) and without him I think my Cheltenham would have been well and truly sunk. I sent out his much anticipated email on Sunday 4th March with his 4 tips for the week and anyone who decided not to follow him, in his happiest hunting ground, will probably still be kicking themselves now.

His 4 runners only produced the one winner but when that winner is 33/1 who cares? Certainly not me and the many readers who emailed me to pass on their thanks to Gary. This is tipping of the highest order and shows last years 40/1 winner was certainly no fluke! And boy how close were we to having two winners as A New Story looked all over the winner running up the hill. And if a 33/1 winner and 20/1 second weren’t enough he also tipped Une Artiste at 40/1 in one of his daily blog comments.

In fact if you had placed 1pt ew on all his selections at Best Odds Guaranteed with bet365 you would have made

Tues -6pts
Wed +62.87pts
Thurs +22pts
Fri +7.25pts giving an overall total on the week of +86.12pts

Add in Cape Tribulation at 33/1 ante-post and you have another +42.25pt

Absolutely amazing. How does he do it?

Anyway, with his pockets bulging he’s now turned his attention to the Grand National and these two beauties……

Both of my tips are Irish trained horses who have a lot of Graded Chase form (including Grade 1 and 2 wins) to their names but have never quite made it to the top of the chasing tree.

The first is a former Grade 1 winner at the Punchestown Festival who won the Champion Novice Chase just over 2 weeks after running a creditable 4th in the Irish Grand National. Not a bad run for a novice considering he was trying to give the winner Niche Market 7lb! RARE BOB  has spent the last 3 years trying to recapture that sort of form but despite running well on occasions he has only been able to score once more when winning a handicap at Leopardstown. He did do that from top-weight though off a rating of 145 which is just 1lb less than the one he has been assigned to run off in the National. He ran at the Aintree Festival last year where he was set to at least make the frame until unseating 2 out and returned to the track last December to run over the National fences in desparate conditions. He finished a poor 5th that day but at least showed he could handle the fences if not the ground. His last run was in the Leinster National where he finished 3rd to a couple of lightly weighted chasers and that should have left him spot on for this. With the ground no problem and a career that shows a 50% top 3 record the 50/1 looks an interesting Each Way bet at this stage.

The other horse I fancy for the race is the ex-Howard Johnson horse KILLYGLEN who won the Grade 2 Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree in 2009. He then found life as a 150+ rated handicapper too much and began to look a little disappointing until running an absolute cracker in the National last year. From a rating of 146 he was with the leaders for most of the race and had just begun to stay on nicely in 3rd when coming down at the third last. It was a real shame because he had jumped well for most of the race until tiredness had started to creep in over the last few fences. The trainer has obviously had this as his target all year and has kept the horse mainly over hurdles with a couple of chase races thrown in for good measure. His win last time out was a welcome return to form and he looks nailed on to run another great race in the National. From a rating of 5lb less than last year the 25/1 is my idea of a great each way bet.

RARE BOB 50/1 (Stan James / Betvictor)
KILLYGLEN 25/1 (Betfred, Totesport, Coral)

Good luck,
Gavin.

I have a small number of Trends books left over that weren’t sold before Cheltenham. Only 2 of the 30 races covered in the book were at the Festival so there are still 28 races left to go this year.

STOP PRESS: 10/1 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders and Ashes fitted all the trends contained in the book.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get;

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

If you want a copy they are now half price at just £7.50 (including P&P). The book will be sent out straight away.

There’s now no need to join the Festival Trends service it’s a one click payment using the button below……

Now HALF PRICE at £7.50 (including P&P)

I have a small number of Trends books left over that weren’t sold before Cheltenham. Only 2 of the 30 races covered in the book were at the Festival so there are still 28 races left to go this year.

STOP PRESS: 10/1 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders and Ashes fitted all the trends contained in the book.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get;

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

If you want a copy they are now half price at just £7.50 (including P&P). The book will be sent out straight away.

There’s now no need to join the Festival Trends service it’s a one click payment using the button below……

Good luck,
Gavin.

What a week so far. The trends haven’t been too kind to us so far but we’ve had a few nice top rated winners which has managed to keep me in the game and limit my losses.

But once again the story of the week has been Gary’s amazing tipping. We’re all now eagerly waiting to see if Oiseau De Nuit can do the business for us and fill in all our Lucky 15 bets. A New Story very nearly won, Jackies Solitaire was badly ridden (but Gary still came out smelling of roses as he tipped 40/1 winner Une Artiste on the blog!) and then yesterday Cape Tribulation wins at 14/1. What can I say, at these big meetings there’s no one better at tipping big priced outsiders.

We’ve been pretty competitive all our lives so let’s try and wrestle that crown from him with some outsiders of my own for today….

1.30

I have all my eggs in one basket for this race and I’m hoping we see the Baby Mix that turned up at Cheltenham in December and not the one that ran at Cheltenham in January. Of the outsiders the one that looks a big price is the Irish horse Hisaabaat who won the Grade 1 Spring Hurdle last time out and in the process reversed form with a number of horses who had beaten him previously. On that running 22/1 is too big and he’ll be my each way fancy here.

2.05

With the week Nicky Henderson has had it’s a bit surprising to see Lifestyle trading at 40/1 for this. Her form is pretty decent although she did disappoint a little last time out in a Grade 2 mares race behind Alasi. Prior to that she had finished a fairly close 4th to Celestial Halo and is now 2lb lower in the ratings than she was that day. With most firms betting each way the first 5 she might be able to make the frame for a stable in top form.

2.40

The one I’m going to tip here has quite a lot to find if he’s going to make an impression in this race as he only won a handicap off 122 last time. He did win by 7 lengths that day though to get a new mark of 136 but that is still some way short of his main rivals today. What is interesting about the handicap Grand Vision won though is the horses he had behind him that day. In 4th was Cape Tribulation, 5th was Alfie Sherrin and 9th Sunnyhill Boy. All 3 have won this week and 10th home was Houblon Des Obeaux who managed 4th behind Cape Tribulation. I reckon there’ll be worse 33/1 shots running today.

3.20

Looking through the betting there doesn’t seem to be any real value about any of the runners in the Gold Cup. However I’ll be opposing the front two in the betting with Midnight Chase who has shown a real liking for the course, came back to form last time and will at least be leading as they come down the hill. Beware the each way terms in this race though as some bookies are paying a very tight 1/5 odds a place.

4.00

I managed to fluke the 33/1 winner of this last year despite knowing very little about the Hunter Chase scene.  Nothing much has changed in the last 12 months so again I’ll be hoping to jam a 40/1 outsider, this time with Paul Nicholls’ Just Amazing. The long layoff is no problem as horses have won this recently despite a year abscence from the track. He went off at 13/2 for the race last year but never got into it which was strange as he had won his two previous starts and went on to win his next one too. How he can be so much bigger in price this year is beyond me but given my limited knowledge about the hunter scene we’ll probably find out around 4.05. Some firms are paying 4 places in this race.

4.40

24 runners ridden by conditional jockeys in a handicap around Cheltenham. That’s sounds like a recipe for a shock result! Which probably means that Bourne will storm home from the three Nicky Henderson entries. I’m going to chance my arm on a horse who has run with credit in handicaps at two previous festivals. Ski Sunday finished 2nd in the Fred Winter in 2009 and then 9th in the County Hurdle last year where he was beaten under 5 lengths and weakened only in the last 100 yards. But the most amazing thing is that he runs here off a mark 10lb lower than last year. 40/1 is far too big and looks incredible value.

5.15

If it’s all gone wrong up to the Grand Annual I’ll be getting twitchy and will probably end up backing too many horses. Eradicate will like the ground and is an old favourite but doesn’t seem to get up the hill here. De Boitron has been laid out for this after his 4th in the race last year. Trained by Ferdy Murphy, he rarely leaves this meeting without at least one winner. Ultimate was very nearly the trends tip for this race but ruined it by winning last week. Henderson has plenty of horses laid out for the race named after his father.

What the hell. If you can’t beat him, join him. Let’s all lump on Oiseau De Nuit and end Cheltenham like we did last year. On a high with a nice priced winner…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

Personally, round 1 of the 4 day punting fest went the way of the bookies, but only just.

A small bet on Cinders and Ashes (given ante-post on the blog a fortnight ago), my money back on Menorah plus my ante-post ew bet and then Fruity O’Rooney, Overturn and A New Story providing a hat-trick of big priced runners up’s were the highlights.

Allure Of Illusion, Montbazon, Hurricane Fly, Baile Anrai, Dare To Doubt, That’ll Do, Harpsy Cord and a Placepot loss (despite getting the bet up) were the undoubted lowlights.

Still the losses were very small in the grand scheme of things and I have a nice Ante-Post bet kicking off with Cinders And Ashes so there’s plenty of fight still left in me. Let’s see if we can land the sucker punch on the bookies today……

1.30 NH Chase

One of my best bets of the meeting is Teaforthree in the opener and with the quality booking of JT McNamara I’m very confident of a big run. I’ve had a couple of quid at 450/1 on Bob N You and will also have a small ew bet on Bleinheim Brook at 20/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4).

2.05 NIM Hurdle

One of our trends tips Batonnier is a non runner in this race.

I was hoping to see Close House run in one of the handicaps at the meeting because he looked so well handicapped but the problem with that was he was probably too well handicapped and wouldn’t have got into any of the races. Connections have opted to drop him into the deep end instead and I’ll be having a small ew bet on him at 50/1.

2.40 RSA Chase

The favourite looks good here but I’ll be having another each way bet on Call The Police at 22/1 with Stan James. He jumped well and moved up nicely in his run behind Last Installment but was outpaced on the run in. This step up to 3 miles should suit and last years Coral Cup favourite might be able to make the frame.

3.20 Queen Mother

Another good looking favourite which should win. Like a fool I will be breaking all the laws of betting and have a small ‘heart ruling the head’ ew bet on I’m So Lucky who is a winner waiting to happen once he’s dropped in class. He’s 80/1 with Stan James.

4.00 Coral Cup.

28 runners. Gulp. Anyone got a pin? One of the trickiest races at the meeting with the trends not helping very much. I got it down to a shortlist of about 20 and decided to go with Shoreacres (50/1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5), Bally Legend (66/1 Stan James 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5) and Tenor Nivernais (33/1 Betfred 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5).

4.40 Fred Winter

Oh good, only 24 runners in this handicap. Gary’s hope Jackies Solitaire managed to sneak in as the 24th horse so all our EW Lucky 15 bets are still looking good (1st runner just denied at 20/1 yesterday). Vendor is very strongly fancied by connections and it’s easy to see why. From a rating of 129 he looks thrown in and Betvictors 5/1 looks big. He’ll be my main bet in this race with a couple of ew bets on our trends horses and Gary’s tip for my EW Lucky 15 making 4 against the field.

5.15 Bumper

To be honest, I couldn’t care less about this race but it is Cheltenham and you have to have a bet, don’t you? I’ll be backing Village Vic and Horatio Hornblower in honour of the best ride of the Season at Newbury last time. I was lucky enough to be there in person that day to see Tony McCoy pick up and carry Shutthefrontdoor over the line despite taking a crashing fall not 2 hours before. A truly great ride that denied Richard Johnson and Village Vic the victory with Horatio Hornblower running well on his debut in 3rd. 14/1 and 16/1 with various firms for some small stakes.

Ding a ling a ling. Round 2…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

When Harold McMillan famously declared in July 1957 that ‘you’ve never had it so good’ he was of course referring to the state of the economy but fast forward 55 years and he could easily have been talking about the bookmaker concessions on offer for Cheltenham this week. There really hasn’t been a better time to be a punter because if you shop around this week there are many golden opportunities to minimise losses and maximise profits.

But in order to take advantage of these offers you’re going to have to ditch your Betfair account and open up a few new accounts with some of the biggest names on the highstreet. If you think Betfair is the be-all and end-all of betting and that exchanges are the only place to get value for money then you’re simply asking to lose money this week. And you deserve to lose it too! Does Betfair offer you all this?

1) Your money back on any loser in the Arkle if Sprinter Sacre wins? Paddypower will.

2) Or, could you back Sprinter Sacre (or indeed any of the 6 runners) in the Arkle and if it finishes second get a refund on your stake? Boylesports offer this and also offer the same concession of money back if your horse finishes runner up in any of the first four races of the Festival. That’s the Supreme, Arkle, JLt Handicap and Champion Hurdle.

3) What about if Darlan wins the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Will you get your money back if you’ve backed a loser in the race? You will if you back your fancy with Betfred. It’s not quite as good as Paddypower’s offer but still worth taking.

4) Ladbrokes will also refund your stake if your horse finishes second in the Supreme as will Coral but with them your horse has to finish 2nd to Darlan.

5) Never mind the first 4 races of the meeting, Blue Square will refund your stake up to £50 on EVERY horse beaten less than a length for all 27 races of the Cheltenham Festival regardless of where they finish. Offer applies to bets placed through their mobile site.

6) Are Betfair offering each way terms of a 1/4 odds the first 5 in the Supreme Novice Hurdle? Nope, but Skybet are.

7) What about some free bets? If you bet £20 on the Supreme Novice with Betvictor he’ll give you £20 to bet on the first race of day 2. If you back a winner at 4/1 or bigger on a Ch4 race with Bet365 you get a free bet on the next Ch4 race equal to your previous stake.

8 ) William Hill mobile customers will receive a free bet up (to the value of £50 to use tomorrow) for any selection that finishes second in any race today.

9) Coral and Bet365 are offering 1/3 odds 1-2 for each way bets in the Arkle. Coral offer 1/3 odds 1-2-3 in the Supreme.

10) Ladbrokes will be offering the best price on every runner in the 4 Championship races between noon and 1pm.

11) And if you miss the boat with the early prices then just head on over to Bet365 who promise to be the best price on EVERY horse running live on Channel 4 this week (from 10am)

(Terms and conditions may apply to all offers)

If after all that you still want to bet with Betfair then there really is no hope for you…..

————-

So how do we make money out of these offers? There are two options depending on whether you fancy Sprinter Sacre to win or lose.

OPTION ONE: YOU FANCY SPRINTER SACRE WILL LOSE

If you already have a Paddypower account then login, if not set one up here…..

Then in the Arkle place the following bets…..

£48 Al Ferof at 11/4
£22 Cue Card at 7/1
£18 Menorah at 9/1
£10 Blackstairsmountain at 16/1
£2 Foildubh 100/1

Cheer on any of these 5 horses to win a minimum of £70

But even if Sprinter Sacre wins you’ll get your £100 back and won’t have lost anything.

OPTION 2: YOU THINK SPRINTER SACRE WILL WIN

You do the above and then add £70 at 4/5 with Boylesports on Sprinter Sacre and take a chance that if he gets beat, he’ll finish second.

This would leave the following scenarios…..

Sprinter Sacre wins- You get your £100 back from Paddypower and win £56 from Boylesports = +£56
Sprinter Sacre loses but finishes 2nd - You win a minimum of £70 with Paddypower and get £70 refund from Boylesports = +£70
Sprinter Sacre loses and finishes outside the top 2 - You win a minimum of £70 with Paddypower but lose £70 with Boylesports = level

Either way you can’t lose if even your wrong about Sprinter Sacre’s chances.

———–

As well as the trends horses running today I’ll be having these bets with various firms…..

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Allure of Illusion. EW at 33/1 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5)

4.00 Cross Country Chase

A New Story. EW at 20/1 with StanJames (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

4.40 Mares Hurdle

Dare To Doubt. EW at 33/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4). EW at 50/1 with Betvictor (1/4 odds 1-2-3). EW at 18/1 with Bluesquare (1/4 odds 1-2-3 without Quevega)

I’m sure Gary will be adding his fancies to the comments page at some stage today.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I did this last year and mentioned 33 horses. I couldn’t stop two of them winning but as they were both favourites (Hurricane Fly and Zarkander) it proved a profitable laying strategy.

So here we go again, according to the stats, here’s why your fancy can’t win at Cheltenham……

SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

Nicky Henderson last won this race in 1992. He’s had 16 runners without success in the last 12 years alone.
It’s not looking good for Darlan, Molotof, Erict or Tetlami

THE ARKLE

Interestingly, 22 of the last 23 winners had finished in the top 2 on ALL their completed chase starts.
Al Ferof  finished 3rd last time out.

SPINAL RESEARCH HANDICAP

All of the last 12 winners of this race came from a ratings band of 127-143. 6 of them were rated 141-143 but no horse has managed to defy a mark higher than that.

Well fancied runner Quantitativeeasing is rated 155 and is set to carry top weight. The favourite Hold On Julio is rated 145.

CHAMPION HURDLE

In the Champion Hurdle, only 1 of the last 26 winners had not raced that Calendar year. Since 1985 the number of days between the winners last run and the Champion Hurdle reads: 15-38-11-22-19-11-24-78-10-19-50-31-51-51-51-19-38-31-31-44-45-24-24-38-44
Still fancy Overturn or Rock On Ruby who last ran on Boxing Day?

Only 1 winner of the Christmas Hurdle has won the Champion Hurdle in the same Season since 1983/84. That was Kribensis in 1989/90 and 19 others have tried and failed.
This Seasons Christmas Hurdle winner? Binocular

CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP

UK trained runners are 0 winners from 56 runners in this race.  The last 22 winners over this specialist course had previously contested a cross country race.
Midnight Haze won by 11 lengths last time out but has no experience of these fences and I wouldn’t back him to repeat that feat here. 

NH CHASE

All of the last 11 winners had raced at least 3 times over fences. Paul Nicholls has had 17 losers in this race including 4 beaten favourites.
I wouldn’t bet against Harry The Viking making it number 5!

NIM NOVICE HURDLE

In the last 37 years only one winner of this race has been aged 7 or older.
Second favourite Boston Bob is 7yo

Throughout Nicky Henderson’s  illustrious training career he’s never had the winner of this race despite sending out 22 horses for the contest. He’s only had 2 finish in the top 10 since 1990!
Can current favourite Simonsig break his race jinx?

RSA CHASE

No Feltham Chase winner has ever followed up here.
Which probably means this Seasons winner Grand Crus would be better off taking his chance in the Gold Cup.

CHAMPION CHASE

No Champion Chase winner had run more than 4 times in the current Season since 1995.
Outsider Gauvain is over the required quota while 5 raced Somersby had better try the Ryanair.

CORAL CUP

There has only been 1 outright favourite to have won in the races 17 year history. Only 2 favourites have made the frame in the last decade. JP McManus has had 45 consecutive losers at the Festival.
Get Me Out Of Here? Yes please.

FRED WINTER HANDICAP

All 7 winners of this race were rated 133 or less, failed to win either of their first two starts and had run in the last 37 days.
Second favourite Hinterland fails on all 3 and should take the hint and run in the Triumph.

THE BUMPER

All 19 winners of the Bumper were sired by 19 different horses.
The 19? 1992 MONTELIMAR 1993 WHERE TO DANCE 1994 STRONG GALE 1995 ACCORDION 1996 WELSH TERM 1997 FLORIDA SON 1998 GLACIAL STORM 1999 MISTER LORD 2000 RIVER FALLS 2002 BROKEN HEARTED 2003 STANDIFORD 2004 FLEMENSFIRTH 2005 OVERBURY 2006 SHERNAZAR 2007 FASLIYEV 2008 BOB BACK 2009 PRESENTING 2010 KINGS THEATRE 2011 ASTARABAD

Which if you believe in these kind of stats isn’t a good omen for backers of current 2nd favourite Royal Guardsman or well fancied The New One

RYANAIR CHASE

Every horse to have made the frame in this race was either French or Irish Bred.
Riverside Theatre, Wishful Thinking, French Opera and I’m So Lucky don’t look to have the right breeding for this race.

WORLD HURDLE

Quite simply, the Irish haven’t won this race since 1995. They’ve had 36 attempts in the last 12 years with just 10 placed horses to show for it.
It looks likes Mourad, Thousand Stars, Carlito Brigante, Zaidpour and Powerstation will be playing for place money only.

FESTIVAL PLATE

The Irish haven’t won this since 1982. All of the last 13 winners were rated under 147.
Seabass may have won his last 7 races but that winning streak looks set to end here.

THE KIM MUIR

The Irish last won this race in 1983.
Willie Mullins has the favourite Up The Beat but he looks up the creek in this race.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

12 of the last 13 winners had won at least 50% of all their hurdle starts. 6 of the last 7 winners finished in the top 2 on ALL their hurdle starts.
Forget Dodging Bullets, Dildar, Countrywide Flame and Hisaabaat and concetrate on the fancied runners instead.

COUNTY HURDLE

Master Tern in 2000 was the last winner of the County Hurdle to have won at Cheltenham previously.
Final Approach looks unlikely to defend his crown this year.

You can also forget front runners in this race as just the 1 has made the frame in the last 12 years.

ALBERT BARTLETT

Of the 21 win and placed horses in this race’s history 18 of them were Irish or French Bred and 17 of them finished in the top 2 last time out.
Destroyer Deployed finished 2nd in the Festival Bumper last year but it’s long odds against him improving a placing to win this.

THE GOLD CUP

Cool Dawn in 1998 was the last winning 10yo. The last horse to win the Gold Cup aged over 10 was 40 years ago!

Quite simply, Kauto Star won’t be winning the 2012 Gold Cup.

THE FOXHUNTERS

No winner this century had run in a handicap the same season as winning the Foxhunters.
Which doesn’t look good for current favourite Chapoturgeon

BUT IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS……..

because if you’ve had a bad week and you’re looking to the Grand Annual as the get out stakes then I might just be able to help you. A staggering 9 of the last 11 Grand Annual winners came from a very narrow ratings band of 129-134, carried 10-13 or less, finished in the top 3 on at least one of their last two starts and had run less than 13 times over fences.

Let’s try OLDRIK at 33/1 (NR-No Bet) for another Grand Annual getout……..

Good luck,
Gavin.

You all know I love my stats and for the Cheltenham Festival I have them by the bucket load.

How about these beauties?….

Owners, Trainers and Jockeys

- Paul Nicholls is on a run of 42 consecutive Chase losers at the Cheltenham Festival
- Tom Scudamore is on a losing run of 51 on all rides at the Festival
- Ruby Walsh hasn’t had a chase winner at the Festival since Kauto Star won the 2009 Gold Cup
- Jonjo O’Neill hasn’t had a hurdle winner at the Festival since Witchita Linesman in 2007
- Top owner JP McManus has seen his last 45 runners get beat. Binocular in the 2010 Champion Hurdle was his last winner.
- The only chase that Willie Mullins has won at the Festival is the RSA Chase (3 times)

Specific races

- The Irish have won ALL 7 runnings of the Cross Country Chase and were also responsible for 12 of the 14 placings
- But the Irish have NEVER won the RyanAir Chase
- Irish and French Bred horses have been responsible for EVERY win and placed horse in the RyanAir
- Neither Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have ever won the NIM Hurdle despite having had 8 runners between them under 10-1 in the last decade alone.
- Paul Nicholls has sent out 17 losers in the 4m NH Chase including four beaten favourites
- Non claiming jockeys have won 6 of the last 7 Kim Muir Chases (for amateur jockeys)

Betting

- 8 of the 9 Champion Bumper runners to start at 3/1 or less have been beaten
- Since the inception of the Fred Winter Handicap, all of the last 7 winners of the Triumph Hurdle have come from the first 4 in the betting.

Headgear

- Since 2002 all 32 runners to wear headgear in the World Hurdle have been beaten as have all 33 in the Byrne Group Plate, all 23 in the Cross Country, all 25 in the Gold Cup and all 38 in the County Hurdle
- 5 of the 7 David Pipe Festival Winners wore headgear

The Irish

- Since 1999, nearly 75% of all win and placed horses in the NH Chase were Irish Bred. The first 6 home in last years race were Irish Bred.
- The last time the Irish drew a blank at the Cheltenham Festival was 1989
- Since 2002 the number of Irish winners at the meeting has been 5-6-4-9-10-5-7-9-7-12
- In the last 10 years there are only 4 races the Irish haven’t won and all come on the Thursday of the meeting: RyanAir, World Hurdle, Byrne Group H’Cap (last Irish winner in 1982) and Kim Muir (last Irish winner in 1983).

Odd facts

- Since 2003 only 6 Festival winners managed to lead all the way (from over 200 races)
- No mare has won the RSA Chase since 1981 and no mare has won the Arkle since 1980

And finally….

All 19 winners of the bumper (NH Flat Race) have been sired by 19 different stallions. Here are the 19 different sires to have won the race……

1992 MONTELIMAR  1993 WHERE TO DANCE 1994 STRONG GALE 1995 ACCORDION  1996 WELSH TERM  1997 FLORIDA SON 1998 GLACIAL STORM 1999 MISTER LORD  2000 RIVER FALLS 2002 BROKEN HEARTED 2003 STANDIFORD  2004 FLEMENSFIRTH 2005 OVERBURY  2006 SHERNAZAR  2007 FASLIYEV 2008 BOB BACK  2009 PRESENTING  2010 KINGS THEATRE 2011 ASTARABAD

I hope you can find something useful in that little lot

——–

If you want to download a copy of the Jockey and Trainer Stats I compiled last month then you can get it here….

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/cheltfestjocktrain2012.pdf

This is a one click, direct link with no sign-ups or details required. It’s 100% FREE.

Good luck,
Gavin.

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BOYLESPORTS

They have a great offer for Cheltenham and as a punter who has more seconds than the Chawner family at a free buffet it’s right up my street.

They are refunding all bets (up to £200) on any horse that finishes 2nd in any of the first 4 races of the Festival. That’s the Supreme, Arkle, JLT Handicap Chase and the Champion Hurdle.

With NR-No Bet on all races and £40 free bets available to new customers it’s time to ditch Betfair and expand your betting portfolio.

PADDY POWER

The big 2 Irish firms can always be relied upon to provide the best offers at Cheltenham and Paddy Power have matched Boylesports in providing a fantastic concession for their punters.

Quite simply, they are giving money back on ALL losers if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle. That’s not just the runner-up but EVERY horse in the race if one of the hottest favourites of the week obliges.

If you fancy any horse to beat Sprinter Sacre then you just have to bet it with Paddy Power as this is simply extra insurance. Betfair can’t match that and anyone betting against Sprinter Sacre with any firm other than Paddy Power deserves to lose.

New customers can also take advantage of up to £1000 in free bets when opening a phone account (08000 565 285)

BLUE SQUARE

Blue Square are making their offer to all mobile users. Basically if you back a horse via their mobile app. and it gets beaten by less than a length in any race at the Festival they will refund your stake up to a maximum of £50. It doesn’t matter where your horse finishes, as long as he is beaten by under a length you get your money back.

To qualify for the offer simply download the Bluesq app or visit bluesq.com on your mobile.

LADBROKES

Even Ladbrokes are getting into the spirit of things and offering a £5 free bet to ALL of their customers old and new. Simply make a deposit into your Ladbrokes account and they will give you a FREE £5 bet to place on any race on the first day of the Festival. It’s not a massive offer but it’s better than the usual ‘nothing’ that they offer.

WILLIAM HILL

They don’t do money back offers, don’t you know. Far to good for that sort of thing. However they are aiming to be the best price on quite a few fancied runners. They kickstarted if off on Monday by offering Hurricane Fly at a standout 5/4 (that lasted about 3 hours, limited to £50 and they are now back to 4/5) and followed that with Oscar Whisky at 6/1 yesterday.

Today you can have 5/1 about Peddlers Cross for the Jewson, if you’re interested and quick enough.

BETFRED

Nothing as yet from Fred but I’m sure he’s up in Done Towers thinking of something big to announce later this week…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

Why don’t you BOGOF?

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- Trends for all 26 races run at the meeting
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The same again for all 21 races at the Aintree Festival including our 20 page Grand National Special.

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The countdown clock tells us there’s just over a week to go until the start of the best 4 days NH punting in the world. I didn’t get to Vegas this Winter and I’ve not been doing much betting since I finished work so my bankroll is healthy and ready to go. Yesterday Gary told you what he fancies (click here http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/garys-pre-cheltenham-tips/ if you missed it) so I thought today I’d tell you what I’m hoping will be winning next week.

This time last year everything was looking very nice for me with my strong fancies all having been well supported in the ante-post markets and I was feeling very excited about my prospects. Any one of Medermit at 14’s for the Arkle, Kempes at 66/1 for the Gold Cup or Quartz de Thaix at 20/1 for the Festival Plate would have done but as it turned out they all got turned over (at 11/4, 9s and 7/1). It’s not enough to get the value, it’s not enough to actually get them to run in the right race and turn up on the day, oh no, you then have to hope everything falls into place in the race and you get a run for your money. Ante-post betting should come with a health warning.

One year older but probably no wiser and certainly a little poorer I’m trying again with these two likeable sorts…..

Jewson Novice Chase (Thursday 15th March)

My number one hope for the week and the one horse that could decide my whole Festival is FOR NON STOP. After watching him run so well behind Al Ferof at Sandown in December I decided then that he would be able to hold his own in the highest company over fences as long as he was stepped up in trip. His next race saw him go down to Cue Card over 2m3f which I was a little disappointed with given he was receiving 7lb but he bounced back to record a stunning victory in a very competitive Grade 2 at Newbury on their re-arranged Betfair Hurdle card. He jumped superbly and after being held up in the rear made good headway down the straight to time his run to perfection and power home from Michael Flips. This run had all the hallmarks of a decent horse and with most of the big name chasing recruits looking to have options over different trips the way looks clear for a very big run in this newly formed Festival race. He is my biggest ante-post bet and I’ll be backing him again next week.

 PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE)

The one I’m really keen on here is SIVOLA DE SIVOLA who looks incredibly well handicapped on 132 and set to race off just 10-01 in this race. He won the Newbury Pertemps qualifier by 5 lengths on his first start in handicap company which was hardly surprising as he was only rated 122 despite having finished 2nd to Spirit Son, 7th in the NIM Hurdle at last years Festival and running Fingal Bay to 13 lengths in a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham. On his next start he returned to Cheltenham for a handicap where he finished 4th to his stablemate Module over a woefully inadequate 2m1f trip. Not surprisingly for such an out and out stayer he was doing all his best work at the business end of the race and finished very strongly up the hill. This race looks tailor made for him and I expect a very big run from him. He does have multiple entries at the Festival including a couple of the novice races but I’m pretty confident this is the race he will end up competing in.

 Both are 7/1 with most firms but make sure whoever you back them with gives NR-No Bet!!

———-

THE CORAL CUP

The next race to come under the pre-Cheltenham microscope is the Coral Cup, a fiendishly difficult handicap hurdle that takes a lot of sorting out. The first thing to do is see which trainers have a good (or bad) record in the race and then take a look at their entries to see if they’re plotting anything. In the Coral Cup Tony Martin has only had 3 runners in the race since 1999 but has managed a winner and a place. Obviously, anything he runs is worth noting as are the Phillip Hobbs runners as he has won the race twice and placed twice in the last 11 Festivals. On the other hand, Nigel Twiston-Davies has sent 9 runners for the race but all have finished out of the frame while Noel Meade has done only slightly better with just 1 place from 10 runners. Nicky Henderson has had 1 winner (Spirit River in 2010) and 1 place but at the cost of 25 runners so is another who can be taken on. Worth noting also are JP McManus owned runners as he likes nothing better than pulling off a coup in these Cheltenham Handicaps and the Coral Cup has been one of his happiest hunting grounds. 

You need to forget the 8yo’s and up (only one horse aged over 7 has been able to win with just 7 similarly aged runners making the frame). You can also forget those rated 144+ and any yet to win this season.  Don’t worry if your fancy hasn’t been on the track for a while as plenty of trainers now keep their horses at home to protect what they consider an attractive handicap mark ready for a big gamble in this lucrative handicap. Recent winners Skys The Limit, Naiad Du Misselot and Ninetieth Minute had all been rested for 80 days and upwards since their last run.

There are currently 148 runners declared for the race and a lot can boast decent profiles but I do like the chances of BALLY LEGEND at this stage. He’s number 60 at the moment so will need quite a few to drop out but that’s not impossible with so many of the runners holding alternative engagements. Even if he doesn’t make the cut I’ll get my money back as he’s best price at 33/1 with Bet365 who offer NR-No Bet.

His form figures on Good read 34231 and has only been out of the top 4 once when the going reads good/soft so I’m sure he’ll be getting his favoured ground. He won a Class 3 handicap at Cheltenham in December off a big weight and has since been upped in class, first in a class 2 handicap at Taunton where he finished 4th to the 4yo Ranjaan (received 18lb) with Third Intention 2nd and then in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle where he again finished 4th with this time Third Intention the race winner. He would meet Third Intention on 15lb better terms should they both meet in this handicap. As a 7yo with a course win to his name he has a perfect trends profile and would be an interesting runner for his small stable. 

Suggestions: BALLY LEGEND (33/1 BET365)

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Last Saturday Inter Penarth recorded a 3-0 home win against the Dinas Ravens with Dylan setting up the first (he actually passed!) and scoring the second.

P.P.S. Why don’t you BOGOF?

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Pay just £29.95 for the full Cheltenham Guide and get all this;

- Trends for all 26 races run at the meeting
- Selections and ratings for all 26 races
- Ante Post Guide
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- Placepot Perms

PLUS

The same again for all 21 races at the Aintree Festival including our 20 page Grand National Special.

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I’ve gone with 1 horse for each of the 4 days….

Day 1 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase run over 3m7f.

No Cheltenham Festival would be complete without the 14yo A New Story, running in his 5th consecutive Festival Cross Country race. In the previous 4 running he managed to finish 3rd of 16 to Garde Champetre in 2008 of a rating of 124, then as an 11yo in 2009 he finished 4th of 16 again behind Garde Champetre and again off a rating of 124.Then in 2010 as a 12yo, he went 3 places better when winning the 16 runner race by just over 2 lengths from L’Ami off a rating of 135. Then last year as a 13yo he finished an excellent 3rd of 15 behind Sizing Australia off a career high rating of 141. He has also been placed in the top 5 in all of the last 4 running’s of the Irish Grand National as well as over 2miles in a handicap hurdle. He was in the process of running a great race over this course and distance back in December in the infamous race where they nearly all took the wrong course on the run to the last obstacle. He got brought down in the melee that ensued, but he showed that hadn’t effected him too much when getting  placed over hurdles next time. He again had his Cheltenham prep run in a Naas handicap hurdle where he showed up for a long way before fading. I do expect another big run from this gallant but ageing 14yo who is probably having his last Cheltenham Festival run on his 99th career appearance. His price ranges from 12/1 to 20/1.

If De Danu were to get a run then the 100/1 available on him could be the best value bet of the meeting but as he is number 29 on the race card he will need a few to drop out. My advice is to have a small each way bet on him with any firm betting NR no Bet ie BET365 who will also be best odds guaranteed(BOG). 

Main Selection: A New Story 20/1
Plus: De Danu 100/1 (BetVictor)

—-

Day 2 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle run over 2m 110yds.

The one I like here needs a few to drop out to get a run as she is number 36 in the list, but there is a good chance she’ll get a run as a lot of the top weights are engaged in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. The one I like is Jackies Solitaire who has already had 6 runs over hurdles winning once coming 2nd once and 3rd twice. Rachel Green has ridden the Anthony Honeyball trained filly on all of her runs including her last run when she split the very talented Alasi and the Nicky Henderson trained Lifestyle.That was in a Grade 2 Mares race at Doncaster over 2m1f, Jackies Solitaire lost out by the smallest possible margin of a nose to the 138 rated winner with a further 6 lengths back to the 141 rated 3rd horse. If the top weighted Baby Mix runs here(unlikely) then she will race of 10st from her new rating of 125. She did finish 3rd behind Baby Mix in a Triumph Hurdle Trial here back in December a race which also saw Hinterland run 2nd as the 2/7fav. Beaten only 15 lengths by the winner that day and only 8 lengths behind Hinterland who had beaten her a month earlier again over this CD when she was 11 1/2 lengths behind him. It was a race that also featured Triumph Hurdle hope Hollow Tree who finished 2nd. Jackies Solitaire is currently priced between 16/1 and 33/1, with all firms betting 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4.

Selection: Jackies Solitaire 33/1 (Paddy Power Nr-NoBet)

—-

Day 3 Pertemps Final run over 3miles.

One of the hardest races at meeting to find the winner of but I’m confident that Cape Tribulation is capable of a very big show. The Malcolm Jefferson trained 8yo has had an unsuccessful chasing career thus far and seems much better suited by the smaller obstacles. This season he has finished 5th to Dynaste trying to give him 12lbs which with hindsight was an impossible task and 4th to the well handicapped Grand Vision who he was trying to concede 23lbs to. Well suited by the 3 mile trip and already run with credit at 2 previous Festivals and dropped 8lb since his November defeat by Dynaste it all points towards a big run. The only negative was the way he hung up the home straight at Haydock last time. He traveled into contention very strongly only to hang right making his jockeys job very difficult. This could be attributed to the heavy going as his only other run on such a testing surface saw him pull up at Haydock in a 3 mile chase. The better ground seems to be more to his liking so should the ground come up heavy, which is very unlikely, then that would temper my enthusiasm a little. Cape Tribulation is best priced at 33/1 with some firms as low as 16/1.

Selection: Cape Tribulation 33/1 (Paddy Power NR-NoBet)

—-

Day 4 Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2 miles.

I have successfully tipped the last 2 winners of this race Pigeon Island in 2010 and who could forget last years winner Oiseau De Nuit at a whopping 40/1. Having had a good look the entries and studied a bit of the form for this race I’m more than convinced that last years winner is going to win it again. He won quite comfortably last year off a rating of 145 and then went on to Aintree where but for a bad blunder at the 2nd fence he would have won off a rating of 154. This season he ha been highly tried but still put in some good efforts. His debut run saw him finish 3 lengths behind Merdemitt in the Haldon Gold Cup which was a particularly good effort. He then ran 12th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over a trip too far, after that he ran over this CD and was only beaten on the run in by Astracad. He then ran in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid chase at Kempton where Queen Mother hopeful Finnians Rainbow got up on the run in. His latest run was in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler at Ascot behind Somersby, Finnions Rainbow and Al Ferof. A race with too much class for him. With a decent conditional jockey on board to take a few lbs off his back (hopefully Brendan Powell Jnr(5) will get the job) he looks to hold a great chance of back to back wins. He is a top priced 16/1 shot at the moment but thats the same price as this time last year and somehow he ended up a 40/1 chance on the day.

Selection: Oiseau De Nuit 16/1 (Betfred and Totesport)

Good Luck
Gary

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