With Newbury abandoned it means we have been robbed of what promised to be a cracking and informative card. I hope the BHA are able to reschedule this important card but with Cheltenham looming large they’re going to be pushed to fit it in as trainers won’t want to run their horses too close to the Festival. Let’s hope the weather relents and the sponsors and racing powers are able to get something sorted.

So on another bleak and depressing day let’s have a look at the Jockey Stats for Cheltenham 2012….

RUBY WALSH

With the backing of Paul Nicholls and some of the leading Irish trainers, including Willie Mullins, it’s no surprise to see him as the top jockey at the meeting since 2006.
Ruby Walsh has ridden 24 winners from 118 rides (20.3%) over the last six Cheltenham Festivals including an amazing 7 winners in 2009. Backing all his runners over this period would have won you £10.63 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 19 (wins / runners)  
2007 3 / 19 
2008 3 / 21 
2009 7 / 20
2010 3 / 21
2011 5 / 18

Hurdles  16 winners from 61 rides
Chases 8 winners from 51 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 6 rides

23 of his 24 winners were at odds of 10/1 or less. Those 23 winners were all from the front 4 in the betting.

21 of his 24 winners won their last race (from 63 such rides.)

23 of his 24 winners had won at least one of their last two starts.

Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have provided Ruby Walsh with 106 of his 118 rides and he has won on 23 of them.

If you had simply backed all of Ruby Walsh’s rides that had won their last start,and were 10/1 or shorter in the betting you would have had 21 winners from 56 rides (37.5%) and made a LSP of +£43.13 over the last 6 Festivals.

PADDY BRENNAN

Paddy Brennan has ridden 6 winners from 83 rides (7.2%) and rode at least 1 a year from 2006 - 2010. Backing all his runners since 2006 would have won you a healthy £15 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 14 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 14 
2008 1 / 13 
2009 1 / 17
2010 2 / 14
2011 0 / 11

Hurdles  3 winners from 42 rides
Chases 3 winners from 40 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 1 rides

There’s not too much to go on with regard to Brennan’s winners as he’s had quite a few different types of horse win for him. Probably the most striking is that 5 of the 6 were on horses aged 7-9yo (from 42 rides) with just 1 winner from his other 41 rides on runners outside this age bracket (1 from 32 on 4-6yo. 0 from 9 on those aged 10 years+).

RICHARD JOHNSON

With the Phillip Hobbs stable under performing at Cheltenham recently it’s not surprising to see  Richard Johnson struggle here with just 6 winners from 78 rides (7.7%) but things have started to change for the better with 4 winners from 24 rides at the last 2 Festivals.. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £4.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 16 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 14 
2008 0 / 12 
2009 0 / 12
2010 2 / 12
2011 2 / 12

Hurdles  3 winners from 38 rides
Chases 2 winners from 36 rides
NH Flat 1 winners from 4 rides

All 6 of his winners came in races up to 2m5f in distance with all 20 of his rides beyond this trip getting beat (just 3 placed). His 12 rides starting at 28/1 or bigger have all been beaten but he has had three such horses placed for him. All 6 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous start (25 losers finished 4th or worse). He rode all of his 6 winners in their previous race (from 55 such rides) with the 23 horses he replaced a different jockey all getting beat. All 6 of his winners were trained by Phillip Hobbs with his 22 outside rides all losing.

He’s ridden 19 horses carrying 10-11 or less and has lost on them all. It’s the same story for the 16 rides with 11-10 or more. The 14 horses aged 9 and over he’s been aboard have all been beaten (just 3 placed).

A P McCOY

The great Tony McCoy hasn’t been smiling too much at recent Cheltenham Festivals although he has managed to ride at least 1 winner a year since 2006 and 10 winners in total from his 111 rides at the meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £50.37 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 20 (wins / runners) 
2007 1 / 18 
2008 1 / 19 
2009 1 / 18 
2010 2 / 19
2011 2 / 17

Hurdles  4 winners from 53 rides
Chases 6 winners from 52 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 6 rides

All 6 of his rides at 3m2f or further have been beaten. He hasn’t had a winner on the Wednesday of the meeting for at least 8 years (33 rides). He’s had 20 handicap hurdle losers from 20 rides since 2006. All 31 of the 4 & 5yo’s he’s ridden in this time period have been beaten.

He’s ridden 80 horses that have started in the first 4 of the betting and he’s won on just 8 of them (all 1st or 2nd favourites).

9 of his 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their previous start (7 won).

ROBERT THORNTON

Another jockey who has suffered thanks to the poor form of his principal trainer. He went 38 rides at the Festival without a winner from 2008-2011 until Bensalem got him back in the winners enclosure last year. Despite that, since 2006 Robert Thornton has ridden 10 winners from 88 rides (11.4%) and backing all his runners over this period would have only lost you £4 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2005 2 / 14 (wins / runners) 
2007 4 / 13 
2008 3 / 16 
2009 0 / 13 
2010 0 / 17
2011 1 / 15

Hurdles  5 winners from 51 rides
Chases 5 winners from 34 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 3 rides

Not a lot to go on but all 42 of his rides that were 16/1 or bigger have been beaten with just 3 making the frame. 9 of his 10 winners made the top 3 on their last run (exception fell) and 8 had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts. Alan King has provided him with 8 of his wins from 70 rides.

If you missed the trainers for Cheltenham in yesterdays post you can read them here…..

http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham-trainers-2012/

Good luck,
Gavin.

We’re now less than 5 weeks away from the Cheltenham Festival and with little happening on the jumps front until at least the weekend (fingers crossed Newbury passes any inspections) I thought I’d update the Jockeys and Trainers Guide I produced last year. We’ll start with the trainers and follow up with the jockeys tomorrow.

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Since 2006 Nigel Twiston-Davies has had just 6 winners from 102 runners (5.9%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £33.50 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 9
2008 1 / 18
2009 2 / 19
2010 3 / 21
2011 0 / 18

NEGATIVES

• All 30 of his runners on the Tuesday of the meeting have been beaten

• A staggering 53 of his 102 runners have been sent off as rank outsiders at 28/1 or higher and all 53 have been beaten. Just 4 made the frame (but none of those 3 were 66/1 or bigger)

• All 28 of his runners to have finished 7^th or worse on their last run have been beaten

• All 12 of his runners that fell or pulled up last time out ran unplaced at the Cheltenham Festival

• All 13 of his 4 & 5yo runners have been beaten and so have all 11 aged 11 or older

• All 21 runners that had their last run in the previous 19 days have been beaten

• All 21 horses that were ridden by jockeys claiming in the race were beaten

 POSITIVES

• 5 of his 6 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting (51 runners)

• 5 of his 6 winners came in chase events

• 5 of his 6 winners were weighted within just 4lb of the bottom weight in the race

• All 6 of his winners had their last run in the previous 20-90 days

Paddy Brennan has ridden 4 of Twiston-Davies’s 6 winners from 41 rides for the stable. All were on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting.

PAUL NICHOLLS

The champion trainer has had 20 winners from 191 runners at a strike rate of just 10.5%.

You would have lost £59.44 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3/ 29 (wins / runs) 2007 4 / 34 2008 3 / 34 2009 5 / 35 2010 2 / 31 2011 3/28 

NEGATIVES 

• For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to do very well on the first day of the meeting as he has only had the 2 winners from his 40 runners on the Tuesday.

• Races at 3m4f or further are also not his forte as he hasn’t had any winners at these extended distances from 13 runners in the last 6 years.

• All 5 of his Bumper runners have been beaten

• All 27 runners he’s had in the Class 2 contests held at the Festival have been beaten.

• Forget his rank outsiders as all 35 of his horses trading at 28/1 or bigger have been beaten and he’s had just 1 winner from 75 runners that were 16/1 or bigger

• From his 53 runners who had finished 4^th or worse last time out he’s had just the one winner.

• All 16 horses he sent to the Festival aged 10 or older have been beaten (just 3 placed). He’s only had 3 winners from 55 runners that were aged 8 or older.

• All 18 horses that were trying to defy a break of 91 days or more since their last run have been beaten.

• All 24 horses ridden by a jockey claiming an allowance in the race have been beaten.

• Christian Williams has had 14 rides for Paul Nicholls at the Festival over the last 6 years and failed to make the frame on all of them.

 And finally a very interesting stat….. all 39 of his runners carrying 13lb or more than the bottom weight in the race have been beaten. Only 5 of these runners were placed.

POSITIVES

• All 20 winners came in Class 1 contests (from 164 runners)

• 17 of his 20 winners won last time out (19/20 were in the top 3 last time out)

• 18 of his 20 winners were 1^st or 2^nd favourite last time out

• His 4 and 5yo’s have given him 8 winners from their 52 runners and returned a level stakes profit of +£22.50 (forget the NH Flat runners to make it +£27.50)

• 19 of his 20 winners had been rested between 20 – 90 days since their last run.

Not surprisingly, Ruby Walsh has ridden the majority of Paul Nicholls’s 20 winners with 15 of them (from 71 rides). He shows a level stakes profit of £12.80 for the stable. All 20 of his rides in handicap chases at the Festival have been beaten.

So forget backing him when he rides for the stable on the Tuesday and don’t bet him on the Nicholls’ handicap chasers. Following these two simple rules would have given you 16 winners from 51 rides and a level stakes profit of £31.18 over the last 8 years. You would also have backed at least 1 winner every year at the Festival since 2004!

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2006 Nicky Henderson has had 11 winners from 179 runners (6.1%) at the Cheltenham Festival but backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just £43.79 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 23 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 23
2008 0 / 20
2009 3 / 32
2010 3 / 38
2011 2 / 43

NEGATIVES

• All 31 runners that were trying a shorter trip here at Cheltenham compared to their previous run got beat

• All 23 of Nicky Henderson’s horses that carried 10-07 or less were beaten with just 2 making the frame.

• All 22 female horses that ran from the Henderson stable have been beaten

• All 10 horses that Fell or Pulled Up on their previous run failed to win at Cheltenham

• His record with horses coming off a break of 61 days or more is 1 win from 49

• His record in Novice races is 1 win from 37 runners (including 0/16 in nov h’caps)

• He’s had 32 horses start as 1^st or 2^nd favourite and only 3 have won

POSITIVES

• All of his winners were returned 25/1 or under with the 33 horses starting at bigger odds getting beat (though 3 were placed).

• All 11 of his winners had raced either once or twice in the last 3 months.

• 8 of his 11 winners were running over the same trip or just 1 furlong extra compared to their previous start (from 99 runners)

Tony McCoy has had one winner for the stable from 18 rides. Andrew Tinkler has also had one winner but from 22 rides. Marcus Foley is 0 from 10.

Not surprisingly Barry Gerraghty has ridden the most winners for the stable with 5 wins from 49 rides and a Level Stakes Profit of £5.37.

All of those winners were 4-6yo hurdlers.and backing Gerraghty under those conditions would have given you 5 winners (and 5 places) from 23 rides and a win LSP of +£31.37.

Backing all male Henderson runners up to 2m5f that weren’t dropped in trip, carried 10-08 or more and weren’t in Novice races would have given you the 9 winners from 63 runners and a very impressive Level Stakes profit of +£64.83.

(Forgetting those runners above 25/1 would have saved you a further 10 bets.)

PHILLIP HOBBS

Phillip Hobbs seems to be staging a bit of a comeback at Cheltenham as he’s managed 4 winners at the last 2 Festivals after a sticky period at the end of the last decade. His figures now read 6 winners from 104 runners (5.8%). Backing all his runners since 2006 would have lost you £30.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 15
2008 0 / 16
2009 0 / 17
2010 2 / 21
2011 2 / 18

NEGATIVES

• All 20 of his runners in Class 2 races have been beaten

• All 36 of his runners that finished 4^th or worse in their last race were beaten

• The 24 horses he ran that were aged 9 or over were all beaten

• The 33 runners of his that were rested 61 days or more since their last run all got beat

• The 17 horses ridden by jockeys able to claim an allowance were all beaten

POSITIVES

• All 6 of his winners have come in races up to 2m5f in distance (32 losers at 3m+)

• All 6 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous run

• All 6 of his winners carried between 10-12 and 11-09 (50 losers outside this weight bracket)

• All 6 of his winners last ran in the previous 60 days.

Richard Johnson has ridden all 6 of Phillip Hobbs’s winners from 56 rides for the stable.

DAVID PIPE

His Dad dominated the Cheltenham Festival during his illustrious training career and it looks as if Pipe Jnr is beginning to follow in his fathers footsteps. Since taking over the stable in 2006 David Pipe has had 7 winners from 128 runners (5.5%) at this meeting. The strike rate may be low but 7 winners at such a highly competitive meeting is promising. You would however have lost £48.16 backing all his runners over this period to £1 stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

 

2007 1 / 26 (wins / runners) 2008 2 / 26 2009 0 / 32 2010 2 / 21 2011 2 / 23

There’s not too much to go on but all 7 winners were 25/1 or under in races up to 3m1f.

It’s also best to keep an eye on jockeys coming in for a spare ride as stable jockeys Tim Murphy and Tom Scudamore have only ridden 1 winner apiece on David Pipe runners from 31 and 46 rides respectively.

Miss VENETIA WILLIAMS

She managed just 3 winners from 65 runners (4.6%) but thanks to some big priced winners is able to show a level stakes loss of just -£1.00

Her record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 8 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 13
2008 0 / 8
2009 2 / 17
2010 0 / 9
2011 0 / 10

All 3 of her winners came in Class 1 handicaps (not novice) on the Thursday of the meeting over 2m4f – 3m1f. All of them had finished in the top 4 on their previous runs.

She’s only had 7 similar runners over the years for those 3 winners at a LSP of +£57.00

FERDY MURPHY

You can usually rely on Ferdy Murphy to have at least one winner at the meeting with his only blank coming in 2009 . He’s had 7 winners from just 53 runners (13.2%) since 2006 and shows a whopping £121 profit to £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 2 / 10 (wins / runners)
2007 2 / 8
2008 1 / 7
2009 0 / 10
2010 1 / 10
2011 1 / 8

NEGATIVES

• All 13 of his runners up to 2m 1f have been beaten

• He’s had all 3 of his favourites beaten

• All 3 of his horses that were 66/1 or bigger were unplaced

POSTIVES

• All his winners were aged 7 – 10 (37 such runners)

• All of his winners had been rested for at least 26 days

• 5 of his 7 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out (just 21 such runners)

• All 7 of his winners came in races of 16 runners or more

If you had backed Ferdy Murphy’s runners at 2m4f or further that were aged 7 – 10 you would have had all 7 winners from 26 runners and made an absolutely amazing £148 profit to £1 Level Stakes.

These runners finished: P01101412741P3PP4016P0612P

ALAN KING

He had quite a bit of success at the track up to 2008 but his well documented troubles over the last few seasons have rather damaged his overall figures. He’s still had a respectable 10 winners from 119 runners (8.4%) but you would have recorded a level stakes loss of £39.50.

His overall record looks like this……

2006 2 / 16 (wins / runners)
2007 3 / 17
2008 3 / 18
2009 1 / 25
2010 0 / 21
2011 1 / 22

NEGATIVES

• All of his last 38 handicap (including novice h’cap) hurdle runners have been beaten

• All 86 of his runners starting at 11/1 or bigger have been beaten

• All 10 of his runners ridden by a claiming jockey have been beaten (just one placed)

POSITIVES

• 6 of his 10 winners came at 2miles – 2m1f (from 44 such runners)

• 9 of his 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out

• 6 of his 10 winners carried 11-06 or more

• All 9 of his winners carried within 8lb of the bottom weight

• 8 of his winners were aged 5-7yo (70 runners)

• All of his 10 winners had been rested at least 20 days since their last run

• All of his 10 winners had run between 5 – 20 times in their NH careers

Robert Thornton has ridden the majority of winners for the stable with 8 from 70 rides. All 8 winners finished in the top 2 last time out, or failed to complete, and were 10/1 or under. Following these 2 simple rules would have given you 8 winners from 18 rides and an impressive £43.50 level stakes profit.

Assuming his recent troubles are behind him then the type of Alan King horses we should be looking for are those starting at 10/1 or under that finished in the top 2 last time out.

Since 2006 he’s had 25 such runners and 9 winners (36%) for a Level Stakes Profit of £48.50. 15 of the 25 were at least placed.

Bizarrely, the 6 runners satisfying this criteria that started favourite were all beaten including one at odds-on.

 JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has had at least one winner at the Festival every year since 2006. In total he’s had 8 winners from 99 runners (8.1%). Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £6.62 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 21 (wins / runners)
2007 3 / 19
2008 1 / 12
2009 1 / 17
2010 1 / 17
2011 1 / 13

NEGATIVES

• All 20 of his winners running in distance up to 2m1f have been beaten

• All 16 of his 4 and 5yo runners have been beaten. ALL were unplaced.

• All 13 of his runners carrying 10-07 or less were beaten (though 4 were placed)

• All 22 of his runners that had run in the previous 25 days were beaten

• All 15 runners ridden by a claiming jockey were beaten

POSITIVES

• All 8 winners were aged 6 - 10yo

• 7 of his 8 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting

• 4 of his winners started favourite (from 10 runners)

• 5 of his winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start

• 7 of his 8 winners carried top-weight or equal top weight (40 runners)

• All 8 of his winners had won within their last 4 starts

Tony McCoy has ridden 6 (1 in each year since 2006) of the O’Neill winners from his 34 rides (17.6%) for a small level stakes profit of £3.37.

All 6 winners were over a distance of 2m4f – 3m1f and had been rested at least 25 days since their last run. Backing all such runners would have given you the 6 winners from 16 runners and a Level Stakes Profit of £21.37. 4 of these winners started favourite (from 8 such runners.)

If you forget backing Jonjo’s runners in handicaps and concentrate on his 6-10yo’s that carry top weight (or equal top weight) on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting you would have had 7 winners from 23 runners and made a very impressive +£63.37 Level Stakes Profit. 

THE IRISH TRAINERS……

WILLIE MULLINS

Willie Mullins has had at least one winner every year since 2007 and 12 winners from 117 runners (10.3%) in total since 2006. He shows a small level stakes profit of +33p.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 14
2008 2 / 11
2009 3 / 21
2010 2 / 29
2011 4 / 25

NEGATIVES

• Only 1 of his last 24 runners in the Bumper has been successful

• P. Townend is 0 from 30 on his rides for the stable

• All 11 of his 4yo runners have been beaten

• All 23 of his runners aged 8yo or older have been beaten

• All 6 of his runners starting at 66/1 or bigger were unplaced

POSITIVES

• All 12 of his winners were aged 5-7yo

• All 12 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts

• 10 of his 12 winners returned favourite on their previous run

• 10 of his 12 winners won last time out

• 10 of his 12 winners were in hurdle races

• 11 of his 12 winners came in races up to a distance of 2m5f

Ruby Walsh has ridden 8 winners from 35 mounts. All 8 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts and were 10/1 or under in the betting. Backing these runners you would have had 8 winners from 21 rides and a LSP of +£15.83

By backing all Mullins 5-7yo hurdlers up to 2m5f, that had won at least 1 of their last two starts would have given you 10 winners from 21 runners (47.6%) and a level stakes profit of +£80.08. 

DERMOT WELD

Dermot Weld hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 17 runners stretching all the way back to 2005.

NOEL CHANCE

Likewise, Noel Chance hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 8 runners going back to 2005 although 5 of the 8 have been placed.

E J O’GRADY

His last winner at the Festival came in 2006 and he’s had 26 losers since then.

DESSIE HUGHES

Another trainer who’s been suffering over the last few years with just 3 placed horses from 26 runners. His last winner at the Festival was in 2005.

A J MARTIN

Tony Martin hasn’t had a winner since 2006 and has had 16 losers in the last 5 years.

MRS JOHN HARRINGTON

Jessica Harrington pops up with a winner every now and again and won with Bostons Angel last year a 16/1. Her record since 2004 is 3 winners from 34 runners for a LSL of -£8

C. BYRNES

He’s had 2 winners from 14 runners since 2006 courtesy of Weapons Amnesty who won at the Festival in both 2009 and 2010.

PAUL NOLAN

He’s had 2 winner (2005 Dariboun at 20/1 and 2011 Noble Prince at 4-1) plus 1 placed horse from 16 runners since 2006. He shows a LSP of +£10.00

HENRY de BROMHEAD

Going back to 2005 he’s had 14 runners for 3 winners but with those 3 winners coming at the last 2 Festivals from just 7 runners he’s worth noting. Only 6 of his total runners started at odds of 10/1 or under so it’s probably best to simply concentrate on his fancied horses.

Those at 10/1 or under have finished: 010113

As always I’ll make it into a PDF file which you can download on Sunday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

WEEKLY EYECATCHERS

With very little decent racing taking place in Britain last week there wasn’t much to get excited about but I did note one horse that ran very well on the all weather at a big price.

Caledonia Prince ran at Southwell last Tuesday and was ridden by a 7lb claimer, Josh Baudains, who I know very little about. He has according to the Racing Post had 5 winners from 26 AW rides though and a 19% strike rate is very decent for any jockey let alone one who is just starting out. He might be worth noting for future reference. Anyway he gave Caledonia Prince a cracking ride and after running a little wide on the bend came home very strongly after appearing to be a little outpaced when the tempo lifted. He was beaten a shorthead at 33/1 but there was 4 lengths back to the third horse and this looked a great run for a horse who probably wants a mile and had been off since the middle of last October. The horse won a mile class 5 handicap at Southwell last August with the same 7lb claimer onboard off a rating of 52. He is currently rated 53 and as he didn’t get raised for this second he will be of great interest when running in any mile handicap at Southwell.

Which is where he looks to be heading as he has an entry for a 1m class 6 handicap at Southwell on Friday.

———————-

4 Champions

The bookies are running scared and their losses are set to be huge (well that’s what they’re saying anyway) should last seasons 4 reigning champions retain their crowns at Cheltenham in March.

Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Big Bucks have all run in their trials and have all won in impressive style while Long Run is set to have his comeback run in the Denman chase at Newbury on Saturday. Should he win easily there the bookies will be slashing the price of the favourites even further. Currently they offer 20/1 on those 4 horses winning their respective races at Cheltenham and I for one think that offers a little bit of value.

Put it this way, which of these would you say has more chance-  Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run all winning at the Festival or Tottenham winning the Premiership this Season? Even a die hard Spurs fan would have to admit that they face an impossible task to catch both Manchester clubs after last nights draw and I know which one I’d rather be on at 20/1 but lets have a look at the pros and cons for each……

CHAMPION HURDLE: HURRICANE FLY

PROS - He won last years Champion Hurdle with style, guts and class with only Peddlers Cross able to get a challenge in. That one’s now gone chasing and leaves last years 3rd Oscar Whiskey, 4th Thousand Stars and 7th Overturn trying to reverse over 6 length, 8 length and 16 length defeats. It’s a tall order and on all known form looks highly unlikely. So what of the new band of hurdlers? Grandouet and Zarkander are the most likely dangers according to the betting but 5yo’s have a terrible record in the Champion with 2008 winner Katchit being the only one to win in the last 26 years (the great See You Then was the last before him in 1985). They’re both very decent hurdlers but may need another year to challenge The Fly for top honours. Binocular is quite prominent in the betting and was unable to run in last years Champion due to a mix up with his medication but he did run at the Punchestown Festival where Hurricane Fly slammed him by 9 lengths. Hurricane Fly was off the track after that run until the end of last month where he made his comeback in the Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle. Any doubts about his fitness and wellbeing were swiftly brushed aside as he put up one of the most impressive performances in a Grade 1 hurdle for a very long time. Without coming off the bridle he beat three very decent hurdles with contemptous ease. His jumping is safe and form wise he looks bomb-proof.

CONS - Which leaves the only chink in his armour being his fragility. He missed the Festival in both 2009 and again in 2010 as he wasn’t quite right and although he had a clear run throughout the 2010-2011 Season including his Champion Hurdle victory it was a little worrying that he missed a number of engagements throughout the Winter leading up to his comeback run at the end of January. The only way you can be sure of him taking part in the race is actually seeing him line-up as the tapes go up for the start of the race. Until then it’s a case of keeping your fingers crossed he stays sound.

Conclusion: If he lines up then there’s not much that can stop him retaining his crown.

CHAMPION CHASE - SIZING EUROPE

PROS - His trainer has finally given up trying to get 3 miles with him and has resigned himself to the fact that he’ll just have to have the best 2 mile chaser in Europe instead (aahh what a shame!). Which is good news for the horse and even better news for us punters as he is indeed the best current 2 mile chaser and his 5 length demolition of Big Zeb in last years Champion Chase proved it. That came on the back of probably his worst run over fences in the Irish Champion Chase where he was beaten into 3rd by Golden Silver and Big Zeb. There were no mistakes in this years running of that race as he slammed Big Zeb by 15 lengths and goes to Cheltenham in much better form all round. With many of the runners in the betting market having alternative targets at the meeting we could end up with a small field here with only one or two serious rivals to Sizing Europe. At this stage it looks up to Big Zeb, who seems to be regressing and unlikely to reverse form in March, and Finians Rainbow to lay down the challenge. Finians Rainbow was outstayed at Ascot last time by Somersby and on the whole his form, including his second in last years Arkle, doesn’t look good enough. On official ratings he has 9lb to find with Sizing Europe.

CONS - Errrr, not many. He did run the worst race of his life in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival of 2008 when coming home last of the 14 finishers as the 2/1 favourite. If the ground should come up good/firm or harder he could struggle (only run on G/F going finished 5th/8) but those conditions are unlikely in March.

Conclusion: It’s difficult to find a reason as to why he can’t win here. Moscow Flyer won this as an 11yo so age is no barrier, he has never fallen in a chase so jumping should be no problem, he’s won over fences twice here so Cheltenham holds no fear, he’s won on soft, heavy and good so should get favourable ground conditions and his main rival from last Season was beaten out of sight in their prep race for this. Another Champion with rock solid claims.

WORLD HURDLE - BIG BUCKS

PROS - He’s the best staying hurdler in Europe and the best for quite some time, if not all-time. He’s beaten every challenger that’s tackled him over the past 3 Seasons and is running out of worthy opponents . His winning run now extends to 15 straight wins and in those victories he has shown class, guts and determination and despite sometimes hitting a flat spot and looking in trouble he has always been able to pull out something extra. A truly admirable champion.

CONS - Two words, Oscar Wiskey. Last years Champion Hurdle 3rd has never raced against Big Bucks and is the last hope of the upcoming staying hurdlers to knock over the Champion. His form is knowhere near as good as Big Bucks (beat Poungach last time out) but he is only rated 7lb below him on official ratings and as he has a great record around Cheltenham and looks sure to appreciate a further step up in trip to 3 miles it’s not impossible to argue that there’s further improvement to come.

Conclusion: If he runs to anywhere near his best, which he’ll need to, then he’ll win World Hurdle number 4 and record his 16th straight win.

GOLD CUP - LONG RUN

PROS - He won the race last year dispelling any doubts that Cheltenham isn’t his track. The 3m2f trip is ideal for him and as he is only a 7yo he stil has plenty of improvement left. He can be excused his defeat first time out as his trainer warned before the race that he needed the run as his two targets this Season were the King George and Gold Cup. That he got beat at Kempton was obviously disappointing for connections but he was staying on all the way to the line and had 17 lengths and upwards on the rest of the field. His victor that day Kauto Star is a true champion himself and the course and distance of the King George is tailor made for his racing style. All in all it was a good performance from Long Run and it’s not difficult to see him being able to reverse placings over the slightly longer trip. He has a prep run scheduled for Saturday and all being well this should set him up nicely for the big one in March.

CONS - From what we have seen so far he has nothing to fear from the younger chasers but a couple of veterans may not be ready to hand Long Run the Gold Cup on a plate just yet. Midnight Chase absolutely loves Cheltenham and if he’s allowed an easy lead may prove a difficult horse to pass coming up the hill but obviously his main challenger is set to be Kauto Star. The former Champion had his troubles last Season and never jumped with his usual fluency when 3rd in the Gold Cup last year. However, he has come back better this Season and has recorded two victories over Long Run including last time out in the King George. He won’t run again before the Festival but that’s been the case with him for the past few years and he will be a major thorn in the side of Long Run come March. Of course the other problem we have with him is his amateur jockey. It didn’t stop him winning last year but there’s no doubt a professional would make a big difference to his chances.

Conclusion: Possibly the weakest link of the 4 champions but 3m2f is his trip and now we know he acts around Cheltenham it’s difficult to see him being that far away. If we’ve had the first 3 winners and are in the enviable position of having 20/1 about Long Run winning the Gold Cup then there’ll be plenty of opportunities to layoff for a nice profit.

The 20/1 is currently available with Paddy Power.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Subscriptions are now being taken for the 2012 Festival Trends Guides. As the early months are a little quiet on the trends front the annual cost of subscription is available at the moment for just £99.95 (which is the same price as 2011.)

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

However this offer is only available until 1st March when the price will change to £149 and will remain at that price until June 2012. As with last year there will be well over 50 guides included in the membership and over 200 races covered. With the annual membership you get EVERY guide produced in 2012 and covers amongst many, many others;

The Cheltenham Festival, Aintree Grand National meeting, Chester in May, The Guineas, The Derby & Oaks, Royal Ascot, Newmarket July, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, The Arc, The Breeders, The Hennessey, Cheltenham Open meeting, The King George and Welsh National……… 

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

So why susbcribe now?

1) You save £50 by not waiting until March
2) I will make a £10ew Lucky 15 bet on our 4 ante-post selections from our pre-Cheltenham guide (available now). All members paid up by 28th February will have an equal share in any returns.
3) You will get a FREE copy of my forthcoming book ‘2012 Betting Trends: The top 30 trends races of 2012′ (please note this is NOT an E-book but a hard copy and will be sent to every subscriber)
4) The early bird price works out at less than 50p a race and represents an overall saving of well over £200 compared to buying each guide separately or subscribing monthly.
5) This weekends Betfair Hurdle from Newbury is included for all Membership packages

With the cancellation of the popular David Myers Racing Trends Revealed books and the Weatherbys Summer Festival guides there is now a gaping hole in the market where Trends Betting is concerned.So I have decided to produce a book and publish it myself to try and fill that void.

It’s called Betting Trends: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012 and as you can probably guess by the title it covers 30 races (both jumps and flat) that offer the best opportunities for trends betting throughout 2012.

It costs just £14.95 (incl. P&P) and requires no subscription or signing up to any service. Simply pay via Paypal and the book will immediately be sent by first class post to your home address.
 

Although it does feature the Grand National and The Derby not all of the races covered are quite that famous. We’ve gone strictly with those races that have produced the best results for our service over the past few years. That means races like The Topham Chase, Supreme Novices Hurdle and Ayr Gold Cup take their place in the book while the Gold Cup, The Oaks and St Leger areomitted.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get:

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

It’s a 60 page book that is jam-packed with facts and figures which will hopefully provide plenty of winners for 2012……

 

 Good luck,
Gavin.

After the weekend’s events I’d say the best 2 eyecatching performances came from Big Bucks and Hurricane Fly.

But as that would be, to quote Basil Fawlty, ‘a statement of the bleedin’ obvious’ I’ve dug a little deeper to come up with these three….

LITTLE JOSH: I think Nigel Twiston-Davies has finally realised that Little Josh does not stay 3 miles after yet again failing to see out that trip in Saturday’s Argento Chase. He had jumped beautifully at his beloved Cheltenham and at the top of the home straight was going as well as anything in the race but once again his stamina gave out on him and he slowed very markedly from the 3rd last fence. The way he was going at the top of the course you would have bet money on him being in the shake-up so to finish 44 lengths back in 6th was a bitter disappointment. I’ll wait for him to step back to around 2m4f and hopefully that will be at Cheltenham as he really does go well there. He is entered for the Ryanair chase for which he is quoted at 25/1. I might be tempted to have a little each way if, and when, the bookies go NR-No Bet.

THE GIANT BOLSTER: He’s had his problems in the past with his jumping but David Bridgewater seems to have sorted those out and he now has developed into a very smart chaser. His 17 length demolition of a quality field of handicappers on Saturday showed him to be in great form and a horse to keep an eye on over the coming months. He is entered in the Gold Cup but I think that may be a little ambitious and a more suitable immediate target could be the Racing Post Chase at Kempton at the end of February. It’s not a race many winners of Saturday’s race head for next, with most waiting for the Festival, but of the three that have tried to do the double, two were successful. I’m not sure of the trainers plans but I would certainly be interested in this ones chances if he were to line up.

SIVOLA DE SIVOLA: Racing over a trip a lot shorter than ideal he stayed on very nicely up the hill to finish 4th to stablemate Module in the concluding handicap at Cheltenham. As most of his racing has been done over 2m4f+ it was a little strange to see him line up for this 2m1f race and one can only assume that the trainer was keeping him ticking over with the Festival in mind. It therefore came as no great shock to see Tom George nominate the Pertemps final as his seasonal objective in the post race interviews for which he now heads the betting at 10/1. With form between him and Spirit Son (2 1/2 length 2nd to that one), Fingal Bay (5th beaten 13 lengths) and a win in a Pertemps qualifier by 5 lengths he certainly looks well capable of a bold show in the Final.

Today’s horses have been added to the list of horses to follow which can be accessed from the menu on the left hand side of the screen.

And finally……

Despite getting beat and the entire staff of Racing Post race readers dismissing his chance for Cheltenham I thought Broadback Bob ran okay on Saturday and if Henderson takes the easier 3 mile Albert Bartlett option with him (as opposed to the NIM Hurdle) I can see him running very well. As the season progresses I think trying to give 7lb to Batonnier and being beaten 3 lengths may well prove to be seen as a good effort.

————–

FESTIVAL TRENDS BOOK RELEASE

Exciting times here at Festival Trends with my book coming back from the publishers tomorrow. It probably (well definitely) won’t make the Times bestselling list and I doubt I’ll be doing a book signing down the local Waterstones but I’m really looking forward to seeing my name on a book. The first run is sold out bar a couple of copies so there’s another lot being done ready for next week.

If you fancy buying a copy it’s just £14.95 (including P&P) and covers 30 races this year. It’s called “Betting Trends: The Top 30 Trends races for 2012″ and that pretty much tells you all you need to know. The races covered are ones we’ve had the most success in over the last 3 years and they include amongst others; the Irish National (33/1 and 25/1 winners), John Smiths Cup (16/1 and 5/1), Chester Cup (last 2 winners) and the St James Palace Stakes (last 3 winners). It’s 60 pages of stats, trends and the usual helpful race pointers.

You can get your copy here http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

I’m also just finishing up the first of our Cheltenham Festival ante-post guides which will be available sometime on Wednesday. In last years guide we had a mixed bag of results, and more drama than a Dick Francis novel, but still ended up nicely in front thanks to our 7/1 tip Long Run winning the Gold Cup. Our 14/1 Arkle recommendation went off as the 11/4 favourite but could only finish 4th. Our Champion Hurdle tip didn’t make the line-up due to some mix up with his medication and our totesport hurdle runner avoided being electrocuted at Newbury but by the time he ran in the re-scheduled race the going had gone against him. He ran very well in 5th and showed his true form later in the Season when running away with the Swinton Hurdle by 13 lengths (20/1 into 15/2). As I said, a mixed bag of results with plenty of drama!

As with last year I’ve covered the Betfair Hurdle (old Totesport) and three from the Cheltenham Festival. I’ll also be placing a £10ew Lucky 15 on the four and splitting any winnings between all Early Bird Year Ticket subscribers (by 1st March).

Subscriptions are available from http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Argento Chase

Despite being a Grade 2 Chase run over 3m1f at Cheltenham around 7 weeks before the Festival the Argento Chase, apart from the 2007 winner Exotic Dancer, has been about as informative a trial for the Gold Cup as the 4yo hurdle race run on the same card. The list of winners since Jonjo’s star took the 2007 race include some decent chasers but none of them have exactly gone on to greater things.

The 2008 winner Knowhere went to the Gold Cup but was a very well beaten 6th (48 lengths) behind Denman and spent the rest of his career running in top handicap company. Joe Lively won the following year but never got near to winning another race for the rest of his career which ended with him being fatally injured in Class 2 handicap company on New Years Day 2011. In 2010 the 9yo Taranis caused a bit of a shock when winning from Carruthers but he’d had his training problems in the Season before and this now fragile horse has only run twice since (7th and fell) neither of which was in the Gold Cup. Last years winner Neptune Collonges was 10yo at the time and although he ran in the Gold Cup on his next outing was well down the field and finished 8th of the 13 runners. He’s since been campaigned in handicap company and was beaten in a class 2 race on his last start.

However, this year we may actually get a winner who does go on to lay down a challenge in March as there are a couple of younger chasers in the field who look ready to step up on their previous form. First up is last years Hennessy winner Diamond Harry who has only had the one run since, when 4th behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Bowl at Haydock. He jumped very well that day but paid the price for going toe-to-toe with the rejuvenated Kauto Star for the middle part of the race.  He was finally beaten 18 lengths in the race but on his first run for over a year it has to go down as a very decent performance. Time For Rupert was top class over hurdles and chased home Big Bucks in the World Hurdle 2 years ago. Despite winning his first two chases in fine style he has yet to transfer his hurdles form to the fences and was a well beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase at the Festival where he never seemed to be travelling. It’s taken a while for him to find his feet this year and after finishing 2nd in the Charlie Hall and a well beaten 5th in the Betfair Bowl (7 lengths adrift of Diamond Harry) he finally won on his third start in what looked on paper a fairly easy task for him. He’s a multiple course winner and he stays all day but he’ll have to improve again to win this. That’s certainly not out of the question for this 8yo with only 6 chase runs under his belt. The third of the younger chasers is Captain Chris who won both the Arkle and the Grade 1 novice at the Punchestown Festival and is a very consistent horse who has finished in the top 2 on 10 of his 13 runs. He was unlucky not to win the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut when falling at the last with the race his for the taking and then was stepped up in trip for the King George. He did very well to finish 3rd that day but didn’t really convince with his stamina and todays 3m1f around Cheltenham is going to push his stamina to the maximum. If he is to be considered a Gold Cup horse he’s going to have to win today but I just can’t see him making it up that hill after running flat out for 3 miles.

There are a couple of older horses who could make a race of it with the younsters and with previous winners of this race including a 10yo and 11yo they must be given a chance. Midnight Chase ran 5th in last years Gold Cup after graduating from handicap company and began his season falling in a Grade 1 at Down Royal when looking held in 4th. He then went back into handicap company on Boxing Day at Wetherby where he finished a creditable 3rd off top weight (gave winner According to Pete over 2 stone). That looked a step back to form and this front runner cannot be dismissed lightly especially as he has a lot of form over both the distance and the course. Another golden oldie is the totally frustrating Tidal Bay who is now an 11yo. Throughout his career he has always seemed to get going too late and that was really evident in his last few runs for Howard Johnson last Season including in this race and the Gold Cup. He’s had a spin over hurdles for his new trainer and it will be interesting to see if Ruby Walsh can keep the horse in touch with the field for the race and use his finishing kick to full affect.

Little Josh is another front runner and has won over the course but he has stamina and class doubts and would be an unlikely winner. That can also apply to both Any Currency and The Sawyer who would have to find massive improvement from somewhere to get competitive. Knockara Beau has run well at the course before and finished 4th in the RSA Chase in 2010 but he’s not come close to matching that form since over hurdles or fences.

For me it’s between Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase with slight preference for Diamond Harry.

This gives me a nice looking Patent (7 bets) for today of:

Baby Mix 12.55
Broadback Bob 3.10
Diamond Harry 2.35

—————

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!

It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle

The second race from the weekends card that I’m going to take a look at is the 3.10 at Cheltenham which over the last 5 years has proved quite a good guide to the longer distance novice hurdles run at the Festival.

The 2007 winner Witchita Linesman won both here and at the Festival when he took the 3m Novice by an impressive 12 lengths as the 11/8 favourite. In 2008 the winner was Aigle D’or from the Nicky Henderson stable but he was unable to run his race at the Festival and was last of the 13 finishers as the 4/1 favourite in the 2m 4 1/2f Novice. Diamond Harry won in 2009 before running a very creditable 3rd to Mikael D’Haguenet in the 2m5f Novice. In 2010 it was the turn of another Harry, Restless Harry, to win here before trying to win the newly sponsored Albert Bartlett 3m Novice at the Festival. He went off at 8/1 and after leading for most of the way was narrowly headed at the last when he came a cropper. This left Berties Dream to come home as a 33/1 shock winner. Last years classy winner Bobs Worth made no such mistakes and did the double by winning here and in the Albert Bartlett as the 15/8 favourite.

So what of this years runners?

Well, if the bookies ante-post betting is any guide it looks as if the winner is going to have to put up a really decent performance tomorrow if he is to make any impression at the Festival. The shortest priced runner for the NIM Novice Hurdle in March is the Nicky Henderson trained Broadback Bob who is a general 16/1 -20/1 chance at the moment. Knights Pass also gets a quote for that race but is considered an outsider at this stage with odds of around 33/1 - 50/1.

And on all known form so far it’s Broadback Bob who looks the likeliest to put up the kind of performance needed to book his place at the Festival. This former PTP horse ran a fine 6th in the Grade 2 NH flat race at the Aintree festival where he stayed on late and looked as if a longer trip was very much needed. So it was a bit surprising to see him start off in a 2 mile novice at Ascot for his hurdling debut where he needed every yard to catch the decent Cinders And Ashes (won 3 times since) and win by a length. He finally got his chance to run at an extended trip next time out when he ran out a convincing winner of a 2m3f Novice Hurdle at Newbury. This looked an excellent performance as the favourite in this race (who he was giving 7lb) was the Paul Nicholls trained Polisky who had on his previous run been beaten 5 lengths by Fingal Bay. Even allowing for there being something wrong with the favourite that day it’s difficult to see him reversing form tomorrow.

Knights Pass began his career by taking two NH Flat races in such eye catching style that he went off as a 7/1 shot in the Cheltenham Bumper last year. Unfortunately he never got into contention and finished 19th of the 24 runners, beaten over 50 lengths. His hurdling career began at Exeter where he won an average looking novice in fairly decent style. The penalty he received for that win seemed to anchor him next time out when the Henderson trained Tetlami (winner since) and Nicholls trained Black Thunder (winner since) took  the weight advantage and beat him 5 lengths and 2 lengths into third. His trainer then made the decision to run him in a handicap on his next start which turned out to be the right thing to do as he won a Class 3 at Kempton by a couple of lengths. He took that race off a rating of 125 and has since gone up 10lbs.

Alan King’s 4yo Secret Edge is an interesting runner as he gets plenty of weight from the others and has Grade 1 and 2 form in juvenile hurdle races. It’s difficult to equate his form to the older runners but the distance will suit and he has run 3rd to Hinterland (beaten 10 lengths) over this course. He wouldn’t be one of the very best juvenile hurdlers around though and overall I think he’s worth taking on.

Forgotten Gold ran a good race under a penalty last time out when finishing 3rd to Barbatos (ran 5th in this race last year) who had twice been put in his place by Fingal Bay since winning at Aintree. He looks up against it once more but may take one of the placings. Alan Kings frustrating Battonier took second in that race to go with his 3rd at Ascot and 2nd at Southwell. He may struggle to make the frame this time though. Hard To Swallow was back in 4th and has yet to look convincing over hurdles. This winning pointer looked very good when winning a Ffos Las NH flat race but was well beaten at odds on for his hurdling debut and then fell behind Fingal Bay in a Grade 2 at Chepstow. He will need to recapture his old form to get competitive here. John Quinn’s Hawk Mountain was a 90 rated flat horse who recorded a good win on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield. He was another horse to struggle with his penalty next time out when finding having to give 7lb to another fairly decent flat horse and promising hurdler Crackentorp too much. He gets 3lb this time from Broadback Bob and may give him most to do.

In summary, I’d imagine he’s going to be a shortish price tomorrow but it’s difficult to see past Broadback Bob winning this. Odds of around 20/1 (Ladbrokes and Hills) look quite tempting for the NIM Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and I’ll be backing him each way for that race.

 —————

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

For the rest of the weeks posts I’m going to take a look at the Cheltenham Festival with one eye on this weekends cards and the other on the ante-post markets which are sure to be shaken up come 5pm Sunday.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

Saturday’s Cheltenham card starts off with a trial for the Triumph Hurdle and with the top 3 in the ante-post markets all set to run it’s bound to have a big impact on the betting for the Festival. Baby Mix, Sadlers Risk and Grumeti currently sit atop of the betting at around 8/1.

I was at Cheltenham when Baby Mix made his British debut and was extremely impressed with the way he won his race. He travelled very well and quickened very nicely to beat the more experienced and, at the time, unbeaten favourite Hinterland. However, as is usually the case in racing, it’s not quite as simple as that as Hinterland was shouldering a penalty for his previous wins and gave Baby Mix 7lb in weight. As he was beaten 7 lengths into second at 1lb per length (the usual weight/length ratio for NH racing) it ought to be really close at the level weights they will race off at Cheltenham on Saturday and in the Triumph. Hence the bookies are taking no chances with the Nicholl’s horse and have him just behind the market leaders on 14/1. Personally, the way Baby Mix swept by the field and the manner of his win I think he will again finish in front of Hinterland and he is a worthy favourite for March.

Sadlers Risk was a pretty decent flat horse for Mark Johnston (rated as high as 100 last summer) and on his hurdling debut he transferred his talents to the jumping game when winning an ordinary looking Kempton novice (2nd favourite ran as if something amiss) by an eased down 17 lengths. Obviously he can only beat those that turn up and he did win as he liked but Saturday’s race will be more of a challenge and should give us a better idea of how good he is. Current odds of 8/1 look a little skinny at present and I’d rather wait until after Saturday before backing this one for the Triumph.

The other one vying for favouritism is Grumeti who saw his price contract for the Triumph despite falling in his last race. He began his hurdling career making full use of the 13lb weight for age advantage when defeating the Paul Nicholls trained 4yo Ted Spread, who was a pretty decent flat horse who actually ran in Workforce’s Derby. That was a 14 length victory and was visually very impressive. On his second run he went to Newbury and was well on his way to another easy win when coming down at the 2nd last. At the time he had a couple of decent flat recruits toiling in his wake and as long as he suffers no ill affects from that fall will be a major player on Saturday. His trainer Alan King has a good record in the Triumph and this one looks his number one candidate at the moment.

I say at the moment because the last 2 Triumph Hurdle winners hadn’t even set foot on a British racecourse at this stage of the Season. They both made their debut in this country at the Kempton meeting held at the end of February and under 3 weeks before the Festival itself. That’s worth bearing in mind before plunging on Saturday’s winner for the Triumph. One such horse that has yet to run over hurdles and features prominently in the betting is the Dessie Hughes trained Minsk. The trainer has made no secret of just how highly he rates this high class ex John Oxx trained horse (won Irish Cesarewitch by 5 1/2 lengths) and with his first run likely to come in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown in February I think we can assume he’ll know what jumping is all about by then. Even so, odds of around 10/1 look a little tight given the form of some of those that have already run over obstacles.

I’m going to throw in another horse who is unraced over hurdles and who isn’t quoted in any betting lists for the Triumph Hurdle. The horse in  question cost 120,000 euros after he won a 3yo NH flat race in France last May despite starting slowly. That day he beat Ut De Sivola quite comfortably and that one has since joined Willie Mullins and is unbeaten in two starts. On the back of those two wins he’s a general 14/1 shot for the Triumph and he’s the shortest priced runner from the Mullins stable. On that form line I reckon his French compatriot Utopian, who is now stabled with Nick Gifford, may be worth a very small each way wager if we can get some 66/1 or even 100/1 for the Triumph.

Other runners declared for Saturday’s opener include the Donald McCain Hollow Tree who has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles. His only defeat came at the hands of Hinterland at  Cheltenham when he could never quite match the finishing speed of the winner despite receiving 4lb from him. He has since gone on to take the Grade 1 Future Champions Hurdle at Chepstow in heavy ground which looked a good race despite the desperate conditions. The horse he beat that day Countrywide Flame clouted the last hurdle and would have got closer than the 2 1/2 lengths he got beat without that mistake. He’d been mopping up a lot of Summer / early Autumn novice hurdle races in easy fashion and although he may find the Triumph Hurdle a little hot could be just the sort for the 4yo Handicap at the Festival.

The last horse I’m going to have a look at has been largely forgotten about as he has not raced since the end of November when he won a Newbury juvenile hurdle by 10 lengths in comfortable fashion from the Paul Nicholls trained Ranjaan, who himself has won his last 2 races and is a general 12/1 shot for the Triumph. Don’t let Urbain De Sivola’s form figures put you off (U31) as he didn’t look a natural over hurdles to begin with and his first run saw him try to refuse and unseat his rider at the first flight. His second start saw him run from the front and still hold an advantage at the last before he sprawled on landing and lost all momentum. It was case of third time lucky for him though as he finally got his act together with his Newbury win and the way he defeated Ranjaan marks him down as a top class recruit to hurdling. It’s a bit worrying that we haven’t seen him since, as he was an intended runner in the Chepstow Future Champions race, but should we see him again before Cheltenham his current odds of 20/1 (Ladbrokes) may be worth noting.

As long as the Cheltenham race doesn’t cut up too badly and the big names stand their ground we should have a clearer idea about who will win the Triumph Hurdle at around 1pm on Saturday but at this stage I’m going to send a few emails out and see if I can get a fancy price for Utopian for the Triumph. I’ll let you know how I get on.

———–

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I closed the shop down on Sunday and finished up the paperwork yesterday meaning I am now officially unemployed. So it’s back to writing the blog, doing the trends, betting on the horses and playing poker. Beats work any day!

The last week was a little quiet in the shop so I left my dad in charge most of the time and spent my afternoons in Ladbrokes getting back into the racing. There were a few horses I backed that looked worthy of a mention and I thought that a new weekly feature highlighting these runners might be a nice way to restart the blog. So, every Monday I’ll try and take a few horses that ran well the previous week, winners and losers, with a brief write-up as to why I think they might be worth following. I’ve added a page, called Weekly Eyecatchers, to the menu to the left which is where I’ll list the horses highlighted during this feature. Here are a few to start things off………

MAISON BRILLET carried top-weight in a class 6 long distance race at Lingfield last Friday and did everything right until getting nailed right on the line. After launching his challenge to the leader at the 3f marker he eventually wore him down passing the furlong pole but had nothing left to give when the eventual winner found a little extra close home. He has form at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Kempton and compensation awaits in a similar level of contest.

SMAD PLACE was a smart juvenile hurdler last season and finished his season being beaten around 11 lengths in the Triumph Hurdle. The form of that race keeps getting better with the 2nd, Unaccompanied, and 3rd, Grandouet, and 9th home, Brampour, all proving themselves decent horses this Season. To that list of winners we can now add Smad Place who took apart a decent looking field to take the Grade 2 handicap at Ascot on Saturday. That win was over 2m4f and these longer trips look to be where his future lies. His only entry at the moment is for the World Hurdle at the Festival and although he’ll have his work cut out to topple Big Bucks there aren’t too many great stayers around at the moment and the 50/1 on offer looks massive. Get on! He goes to Fontwell next for the National Spirit Hurdle before his date with Big Bucks.

NOLAND is an 11yo now but on the evidence of his run on Saturday looks to have at least one more decent race left in him. After running fairly well in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase over Christmas he was asked to lump top weight in a very decent class 2 handicap chase at Ascot and was in the process of running a big race when a blunder 3 out stopped him in his tracks. If he hasn’t done himself any harm I would imagine he’ll go to Newbury to defend his crown in the Aon Chase. If any of the big names turn up he’ll probably struggle but if it ends up with being contested by the 2nd tier chasers he could be the value in a race he’s won before. 

I’M SO LUCKY was never going to win the Victor Chandler Chase and his odds of 66/1 were a little on the short side but he ran a race of tremendous promise for when his trainer decides to drop him in class. These 2 mile Grade 1 chases are never going to go his way but I smell a good old fashioned Pipe stable plot with this one and if the handicapper relents a little from his 150 rating then I reckon we’ll see him appear at Cheltenham for one of the handicap chases. The 2m5f Festival Plate is a race Martin Pipe used to farm at the Festival and as David Pipe won it a couple of years ago with Great Endeavour I reckon this is where he’ll be heading.

and finally there was a horse who won on Sunday at Kempton who really caught my eye. I didn’t back the winner as I was on the beaten favourite but I’m planning on getting my money back real quick. KAI MOOK won the Class 6 1m4f handicap very easily and is turned out again this afternoon for a slightly better contest at 5 o’clock. She has a 6lb penalty for that win but the trainer has offset that by using a 5lb claimer and if she is in the same form as Sunday she looks certain to go well. 9/4 looks too big.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I still have a few days left with the Calendar Club but will be back full time from next Monday when I’ll be outlining my plans for the blog and what you can expect in 2012. For all of you still not used to the present colour scheme you’ll be glad to know that these plans include having the nag-nag-nag site re-designed and reverting back to a white layout. But more news on that next week….

In the meantime I just wanted to mention that subscriptions are now being taken for the 2012 Festival Trends Guides. As the early months are a little quiet on the trends front the annual cost of subscription is available at the moment for just £99.95 (which is the same price as 2011.)

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

However this offer is only available until 1st March when the price will change to £149 and will remain at that price until June 2012. As with last year there will be well over 50 guides included in the membership and over 200 races covered. With the annual membership you get EVERY guide produced in 2012 and covers amongst many, many others;

The Cheltenham Festival, Aintree Grand National meeting, Chester in May, The Guineas, The Derby & Oaks, Royal Ascot, Newmarket July, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, The Arc, The Breeders, The Hennessey, Cheltenham Open meeting, The King George and Welsh National……… 

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

So why susbcribe now?

1) You save £50 by not waiting until March
2) I will make a £10ew Lucky 15 bet on our 4 ante-post selections from our pre-Cheltenham guide to be released in the 1st week of February. All members paid up by 28th February will have an equal share in any returns.
3) You will get a FREE copy of my forthcoming book ‘2012 Betting Trends: The top 30 trends races of 2012′ (please note this is NOT an E-book but a hard copy and will be sent to every subscriber)
4) The early bird price works out at less than 50p a race and represents an overall saving of well over £200 compared to buying each guide separately or subscribing monthly.
5) While we’re waiting for the trends season to kick off properly in March you can have free access to the TTS Selections for February.

Plus there will be trends guides for the Murphy Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January, The Betfred Hurdle (Newbury) and Racing Post Chase (Kempton) in February.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Or if an annual membership is still a little steep you can buy my new trends book for just £14.95 (incl. P&P). It covers the top 30 races run throughout 2012 from a trends point of view and is due out on February 1st. It will be posted to your home address in time for the Cheltenham Festival. More details about that tomorrow……

Good luck,
Gavin.

I have just a week left before I join the ranks of the unemployed and can get back to having a lie in, watching the racing and playing poker every night. Ooooooo I can’t wait.

So what’s been happening while I’ve been away? Well, I managed to sell around 40,000 calendars in a little under 4 months, I’ve had two days off (one to go racing at Cheltenham and Christmas Day) since September 25th and must have walked in excess of 1000 miles carrying 1276 heavy boxes of calendars. I reckon I’ve eaten 100 Greggs steak bakes, drank 200 cans of coke, had 100 Krispy Kreme donuts and 50 BB’s muffins yet still managed to lose a stone in weight and 2 inches off my waist! The Calendar Club diet beats Weightwatchers every time. You can eat whatever you like and still shed the pounds!

Inter Penarth haven’t played very many games due to the weather but Dylan has kept up his record of scoring in every game he’s played and now has 24 goals in 9 games. He’s set himself a target of 50 goals for the year and really wants the Golden Boot awarded at the end of the season to the clubs top scorer. As he has scored more goals than the rest of the team put together he’s well on target to do that……..

So what of the racing?

From what little Ive seen it seems to have been all about Kauto Star so far this Season. He raised the roof when beating Long Run at Haydock, brought the house down when confirming form over that rival at Kempton in the King George and goes to the Gold Cup with the Cheltenham executives hoping he makes it 3 from 3 there. If he brings the stand down there it will save them thousands in demolition costs when they get around to re-developing the track. Another Nicholls favourite Big Bucks has brushed aside all comers in the stayers division with ease and looks a penalty kick for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. Just hope Jermaine Defoe isn’t taking it. Carruthers came back to form to win the Hennessey, Synchronised showed improved form to win the Lexus Chase, Quantitaveeasing held his form to finish 2nd and first in the two big chases at Cheltenham, Binocular reversed form with Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle to put himself back in the Champion Hurdle picture and Prospect Wells lost his form and heads to Cheltenham with his reputation shattered. With so many good horses taking to fences this year the Arkle and RSA Chase look set to be the races of the meeting with some connections now thinking the Queen Mother / Gold Cup could be the easier options. Sam Waley-Cohen keeps picking up bans and Long Run supporters are praying this continues long enough for him to be banned for the Gold Cup. Tony McCoy got injured at Taunton at the end of last year and despite his best efforts to ride the following day will be out of action until at least the end of the month. For him to be out that long it must be really serious, maybe his arm or leg fell off. Le Beau Bai ground out the Welsh National in an absolute bog with the final furlong being run in slow motion. Chepstow have failed to race since as they still await the last few horses to finish the race. The Winter weather continues to be favourable with few meetings being abandoned although snow would have been most welcome last weekend when the terrible racing that was on offer deserved to be called off. Which brings us right up to date with  todays Lanzarote Hurdle.

2.50 Kempton American Trilogy

I like the look of Paul Nicholls’ runner American Trilogy here on his return to hurdling. The last time we saw him on this sort of mark in a hurdle race he won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival by 11 lengths. He’s spent a couple of seasons chasing but has never managed to show the same form over fences as he did over the smaller obstacles. It’s taken Nicholls a while to realise that he’s not going to make it as a chaser and now he’s back over his preferred discipline I’m sure we’re going to see a different horse today. The 33/1 with Paddy Power looks too big to me.

12.50 Warwick Up To The Mark

Henry Daly’s runner should find today’s race a lot easier than his two previous starts where he has run with great credit at Cheltenham. Both times he tried to lead all the way but weakened on the run-in and I’m sure he’ll find Warwick more suitable for those tactics in this lower grade race.

I’d like to thank Gary for doing such a great job with the tipping while I’ve been away. He’s had a helluva lot of big priced horses get placed with enough winners to show a very healthy profit since October. This was despite suffering a lot of bad luck with plenty of horses trading at very short odds but managing to get beat (although he got a lot of that back when backing Plum Pudding at 20/1 a couple of weekends ago which has to be the luckiest winner of the Season). It’s a shame he finished on such a low with last weekends tips but I’m sure he’ll carry on giving his advice throughout the year and the next 20/1 winner is just around the corner. TTS finished 2011 with an amazing run of winners at some very decent prices which ensured we went into 2012 in front and well on target to make it our 6th consecutive winning Season. The trends haven’t been quite so good and the 4 guides we have done so far this jumps Season have yet to find a winner (though we did get the 3rd in the Welsh National at 25/1). But the Season hasn’t really started for the trends yet and we have plenty of time to put that right. On the subject, I have some exciting news regarding the service which I’ll reveal on Monday.

In fact he tells me he fancies two today which are………..

3.20 Kempton SAFARI JOURNEY 22/1 Corals: last twice the 3 mile trip has been too far, this drop down to 2m41/2f is ideal, has also dropped down to last winning mark, where he won a very competitive handicap at Ascot by 15lengths.

3.40 Warwick BLAZING BAILEY 9/1 Corals, WH and others: was a disappointment in the Welsh National, but I think that was predominantly down to the ground being too heavy. This better surface will see a different horse and with Alan King winning the last 2 runnings of this race, I’m very confident of a big run and I would be having my maximum 5pt ew bet on him.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Hi All,

we followed up last Saturday’s lucky winner with more success on Sunday at Cheltenham where we had 8/1 winner Calgary Bay and over at Musselburgh we sneaked a place with 20/1 shot Riguez Dancer. That good start to 2012 means we now stand at +74.75pts. My luck continued into Monday when I had a 10/1 winner and Tuesday a 14/1 winner from only a couple of selections on each day(you can read all about them on the comments from the previous blog). So as we go into the weekend the confidence is sky high…..

BEAR DANCING 1.25 Newcastle 10/1 BET365: been disappointing so far this season but won his only career race over CD and with this jockey, didn’t stay the 4miles on seasonal debut or the 3m6 last time out so a much better showing is expected.

DARCEYS DANCER 2.05 Sandown 16/1 WH: Fell last time out but previous runs were pretty good and his novice form from Ireland gives him a good chance of his current mark of 130.

ANY CURRENCY 3.10 Sandown 14/1 CORAL: was a bit disappointing in the Welsh National but this track and trip much more to his liking

CANTABILLY 3.25 Wincanton 20/1 BETFRED: have been following this one in his last 2 runs, ran very well at 100/1 at Taunton 2 runs ago when 7th and not beaten very far, then ran an excellent 2nd at 50/1 again back at Taunton last Friday

ALARAZI 3.45 Sandown 5/1 PP: ran a cracker in 3rd when we had him at Ascot in the Ladbroke Hurdle, won the Imperial Cup here over CD back in March, a big run is very much expected.

1PT EW on each of the first 4 runners and 2pt win on Alarazi

Good Luck
Gary

Hi All,

Well I have berated my luck over the last few weeks with several of my selections trading at very short odds in running only to get caught. I think we got all our luck paid back in one go with yesterdays Warwick winner Plum Pudding. We looked all set for yet another runners up spot when a loose horse had the last say when standing on the winning line right in front of the leader causing him to put the brakes on and allow us to get up on the line. With that success we finished 2011 up by 64.75pts. Lets see if 2012 can be as good…

1.35 Cheltenham RICHARDS SUNDANCE 11/2 PP & WH: finished 2nd in this race last year of a 7lb higher mark, his 4th to Le Beau Bai at Chepstow last time out now has a very good look to it.

2.10 Cheltenham CALGARY BAY 8/1 PP & WH: 4 of his last 5 runs have come over this CD in top quality handicaps, this again is a high quality race with several runners I have tipped in recent weeks(Cape Tribulation & Crescent Island), but off only 10-04 I really think he will run a big race.

2.25 Musselburgh DHAULAR DHAR 50/1 WH: a longshot who is worth a little ew bet, not been running that well over hurdles of late but has bits and pieces of form that would enable him to run a big race.

3.00 Musselburgh RIGUEZ DANCER 16/1 BET365: has some decent form to his name and finished 32length 12 of 23 behind Oiseau De Nuit at Cheltenham, finished 3rd of 4 last time after having a heavy fall at Newbury the time before.
Happy New Year to All and lets hope for a very prosperous one.
Good Luck
Gary

Hi All, a very poor days racing today, some interesting races to watch but not particularly great betting propositions, but I have managed to find a couple of interest..

12.20 Newbury PRESENT TO YOU 20/1 Bet365: In hindsight he had absolutely no chance on his last 2 runs, last time out he tried to give 23lbs to last Tuesdays very easy Chepstow winner Quincy Des Picton, who would now have to concede 12lb should they meet. He didn’t actually run that badly in that Ludlow race or indeed in the Hereford race where he met Invictus who has gone up 30lb since they met in mid November. Prior to those two pulled ups he had shown some good form which would give him an EW chance here. 

2.20 Warwick PLUM PUDDING 20/1 Corals,Ladbrokes, VC: Won two 3 mile handicap chases last season before pulling up as fav in the Devon National at Exeter, finished a good 4th on debut this season but was disappointing last time over 3m2f at Hereford, needs to put that run behind him but this is a poor race.

1pt ew Present To You 20/1
1pt ew Plum Pudding 20/1
0.5pt ew dbl 20/1 & 16/1 Bet365 BOG

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at Cheltenhams New Years Day card

Good Luck
Gary

Hi All,
Wow wasn’t it good to see Kauto Star make history again, what a superb race.

Not a good day for me (and anyone who followed me) yesterday, so we’ll move straight onto todays…. 

1.00 STOW 9/1 tipped him a few weeks back over this CD on similar ground, he ran well in 4th that day and I’m expecting another bold show here.

1.30 PLEIN POUVOIR 12/1 another I tipped last time out where he too finished 4th and let us down for a very nice place treble, that day he traveled very well until weakening in the home straight, he did however win very easily over CD back in February and a repeat of that form would see him go very close.

2.10 BLAZING BAILEY 28/1 I really fancy this one, available at 33’s for the last week or so. As a hurdler he ran placed in 2 World Hurdles, 3rd in the triumph hurdle as well as winning at the Aintree festival and the Grade 1 Punchestown Stayers Hurdle. He hasn’t been seen to the same levels over fences but I’m very confident of an improved run here. He did win 2 chases last season, both over extreme distances on soft ground and he has winning form on heavy ground. Looking for alternatives I also like the look of Mumbles Head(50/1) and Bench Warrent(66/1) and from the more fancied runners Any Currency (14/1) would be my best bet.
Please remember to shop around for some value in particular any firm that are paying 1st 5 places, especially as the ground is very heavy, there may only be a few finishers.

2pts win Stow 9/1 WH & VC
1pts EW Plein Pouvoir 12/1 Corals
2pts EW Blazing Bailey 25/1 Bet365 BOG & 1st 5 Places
1pt  EW Mumbles Head 50/1 Bet365 BOG & 1st 5 Places

10pts staked in total(+53.75pts)

Good Luck
Gary