It was a bit of a quiet weekend for me on the punting front but more importantly it was a winning one! It got off to a great start on Friday night when Directorship followed up his recent Sandown win with a win at Newmarket at the very rewarding odds of 20/1. How on earth he was that price I will never know but the bookmakers generosity was greatly received. I then split my stake on the two F’s in Saturday’s Lockinge and backed Farrh and Fencing.

You may have seen my email on Sunday regarding the motoracing tickets which Sam had won in a competition last week. Thanks for all the emails, the tickets went to a good home and the recipients had a great time as BMW VIP Guests. I’m really sorry for the short notice but it really was a late decision to forgo the racing to spend some quality time with my bestest buddy Matt and his family.

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You may have seen in the comments on my last post that a few readers and I have been discussing luck and whether there is such a thing when it comes to gambling. I’m pretty sure there is but others disagree and it’s been an interesting discussion. I’m currently reading a couple of books on the subject (What’s Luck Got to Do With It?: The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler’s Illusion / Lady Luck) which I obtained from the Highstakes Bookshop and if I can make any sense of it all I’ll most likely do a post on the subject early next month. Hopefully it will provide some lively debate.

But that’s for another day. Before then we have the little matter of Epsom and the third and fourth Classics of the year. Let’s start with…..

THE DERBY

This years Derby really boils down to one question. Is Dawn Approach value at 11/10?

In my opinion the answer is an emphatic Yes!

He has won the best trial (the Group 1 Guineas), he has the best form (unbeaten in 7 races including 3 Group 1′s), he’s by a Derby winner, is trained by a Derby winning trainer and most importantly of all, the opposition doesn’t look good enough to beat him.

Just look at the principals…..

Battle Of Marengo – He is unbeaten in his last 5 races but has yet to win in Group 1 company although he has won a couple of Group 2′s and a Group 3. Last year he beat the Dante runner-up very easily but his form this year hasn’t been spectacular and he surely owes his prominence in the Derby betting more to the Coolmore hype machine and lack of worthwhile rivals than his form on the track. He’s by Galileo and should have no problem seeing out the trip but his workmanlike win from Loch Garman last time out is a world away from anything Dawn Approach has achieved.

Telescope – another hype horse who has achieved very little and yet is as low as 6/1 with some firms to win the Derby. Really? Put a 1 in front of his current odds and it still looks a bit skinny to me. So what if Sir Alex Ferguson owns a leg, since when has having a high profile owner been a prerequisite to winning The Derby? What we have is a twice raced horse who was beaten first time up, won a maiden next time but has yet to even run this year. He got injured in his preparation for the race and has been restricted to a racecourse gallop where he beat an un-named stablemate by 30 lengths. If Stoute wins the Derby with this one then I’ll become a member of the Claire Balding fanclub.

Ocovango – Trained by the French master Andre Fabre, Ocovango is unbeaten in three runs including a Group 2 at Saint Cloud on his last start. That wasn’t the greatest Group 2 race ever run and the time wasn’t anything special plus all three of his runs have been on softish or worse ground. If we get a lot of rain on the run up to the race he might be of interest but I still can’t see him lowering the colours of the favourite on anything he has achieved so far.

Ruler Of The World – he didn’t run as a 2yo and has had just the two runs although he did win a Derby trial by 6 lengths at Chester last time out. But which ever way you look at it the opposition in that 4 runner race was very poor and he didn’t have to be a world beater to win it. The second is rated 93, the form of the third home took a serious knock in the Dante and a rating of 100 now looks unjustified and the last home was a once raced maiden winner with a rating of 89. Single figure quotes for this one’s chances in The Derby again owe more to his connections and lack of opposition to the favourite than what he has achieved on the track so far.

Chopin – a German trained horse who doesn’t hold a Derby entry yet. He won a Group 3 by 8 lengths last time out but seriously, is that really worth quotes of 10/1 (Coral) about his chances? I suspect not!

Mars – won an AW maiden from a stablemate who got stuffed by Dawn Approach and a horse now running in handicaps off a rating of 68! He ran okay in the Guineas and was doing all his best work late on but even with another 4 furlongs to travel it seems highly unlikely that he will be able to reverse placings with Dawn Approach who beat him nearly 9 lengths at Newmarket.

Magician – another O’Brien Chester trial winner who beat a small field of lowly rated horses easily. By Galileo, the trip won’t be a problem for him but his lack of class might.

Libertarian – somehow managed to win the Dante having run greener than the York turf he was racing on and in my opinion has very little chance of handling the tricky Epsom undulations. This years Dante was choc full of non-stayers and dodgepots and will probably go down as the worst Dante ever run. Horses that didn’t race as a 2yo have a poor record in the Derby an the general 20/1 looks tight to me. Stan James quote of 12/1 is laughable.

That Trading Leather couldn’t beat Libertarian in the Dante tells us all we need to know about his chances and I doubt Bolger will be losing too much sleep over this one’s chances of beating his more illustrious stablemate. Nevis put up a visually stunning performance in the Lingfield Derby Trial but very soft ground and a very poor trio of rivals made it look far better than it actually was. He ended last season running 14 lengths behind Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst and connections only hope is that the extra distance will help him reverse placings. Bravadino ran second to Ocovango in that Group 2 at Saint Cloud which leaves him a mountain to climb and John Oxx’s Zand has a very similar profile to Telescope. Twice raced, beat first time up, won a maiden by a wide margin and has yet to race this season. He’s available at 40/1 which might be a true reflection of both his and Telescope’s chances.

To me it all points to a win for the favourite. I really can’t see anything beating him. 11/10 isn’t a massive price but in all honesty I think odds-on quotes would be fully justified.

Good luck,
Gavin

TRAINERTRACKSTATS

I will be officially launching TTS for the Summer on Monday with three super guides to keep us entertained until October. There will be a 2yo TTS Guide featuring juvenile runners from assorted stables, a Summer Jumps Guide for every track set to host NH racing June – September and an AW Flat Guide for those who like a bet on the sand.

All 3 Guides are just £27 and include a selections page where all the days runners will be available from 9am each morning. Also included in the package price will be a more selective 5 star service where we will highlight the best bets from each guide.

I have covered May in the 2yo Guide and selections are available now for those wishing to jump straight in. (7/1 winner on Saturday from 2 runners).

Also, to make things a little easier I have added a Membership area to the NagNagNag Blog which means you can now access the daily selections from this site. No having to juggle between different sites or having to remember login URL’s etc. It’s all here under one ‘roof’….

I’ll tell you more on Monday but if you know you want it and want to get on with it right now, you can sign up here…..http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/trainertrackstats/sign-up/

or click the tab at the top right hand corner of this NagNagNag site labelled TrainerTrackStats

I had a pretty good day yesterday thanks to Sir Henry’s First Mohican winning the first and Gordon Lord Byron holding on for third which meant I got the Placepot up for 50p.

With my confidence restored I’ll be trying to continue on an upward curve with these 4 today…..

2.15 York

Based on last years outings Starscope looks a pretty unreliable filly who finds it hard to get her head in front. Her 2 second placed finishes in Group 1 contests are excellent runs but it was really disappointing to see her beaten twice in Listed company at short odds either side of her second at Royal Ascot. She hasn’t run since last July and her only run at 10f was probably the worst run of her career. French filly Dalkala carries a  penalty for her Group 2 win last year and takes a drop down in trip and may just be vulnerable under these conditions. So I’m going to oppose both market leaders and take a chance on Richard Fahey’s runner Ladys First who improved nicely last year and finished her Season running 4th behind Chigun. On that run she looked like the step up to 10f would be well within her grasp and 8/1 looks each way value.

2.45 York

Windhoek, Greatwood and Ghurair were all involved in a fantastic finish at Newmarket on their first runs of the Season when a short head and a neck separated the three of them and I think the winner of this years Dante will come from one of those three runners. Winhoek has since come out to win a Listed contest by 3 1/4 lengths but he didn’t look the easiest of rides that day and was ducking left when coming under pressure. On that basis I’ll overlook him. At the start of the Season I had high hopes for Ghurair and included him in my list of horses to follow. Although he was only just beaten in that Newmarket race I was a little disappointed that he couldn’t win that day and will give him another chance, now he has had a run, to get back to winning ways.

3.15 York

Ideally you need a 4 or 5yo who has decent form from the last 3 months for this race. I think Two For Two is an ideal candidate and he looked unlucky in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out. My best bet of the day.

3.45 York

I backed Hidden Justice in the Triumph Hurdle but he found things happening a little to quick for him in that mad 2 mile sprint so connections decided to bypass Aintree and returned him to the flat for a 2m2f handicap at Pontefract. He ran out one of the easiest winners of the Season so far and I don’t think a 10lb rise will stop him going in again. Any softening of the ground will be an added bonus for him.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Bad news 1: Hunt Ball has been sold privately to race in America and will not therefore be going to the Sales. Which doesn’t help our guess the price contest very much as they have yet to disclose how much they paid for him. If I find out we’ll use the amount to settle the contest. Otherwise it was all for nothing. Sorry.

Bad news 2: Telescope has banged his leg while going for a jolly in his horsebox and will now miss the Dante. Obviously there is now a doubt as to whether he’ll be back for the Derby although connections haven’t given up on that yet and they will be trying to fit in a racecourse gallop sometime before the big race. But it really asks the question…….

How can a once beaten, maiden winner without a run this year who has suffered an injury and an interrupted preparation possibly be as low as 6/1 for the Derby? I’d be a layer all day long at that price.

Bad news 3: I didn’t have a very successful weekend punting and it’s all Pricewise’s fault (well part of it was anyway). I was all set to have a nice each way punt on Barizan in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock but by the time I’d got back from taking Dylan to his football and getting my copy of the Racing Post the 20/1 had long gone thanks to Pricewise having tipped the horse. I hate missing the price so didn’t bother backing him and as is always the case he duly won. This left me with just my other fancy Tartiflette in the Victoria Cup. He of course finished just outside the placings although he looked likely to play a big hand in proceedings at the 2 furlong pole. As it transpired he was drawn on the wrong side and he’s definitely worth keeping on the right side of in future 7f handicaps. The other horse to note from that race is Loving Spirit who I will be eagerly awaiting to see if he gets an entry in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. You heard it first here!

Things went from bad to worse on the Sunday when my each way bet in the French 2000 Guineas, Gale Force Ten, finished where all good each way bets finish, in 4th, beaten a neck and two heads. Grrrrrr!

Bad news 4: And Monday it went from worse to worser (yes I know that’s not a real word) when I played poker for a Las Vegas World Series package. 71 players took to the virtual felt with 2 seats up for grabs. 6 hours later and 2 o’clock in the morning I was down to the last three with the chip lead. What could possibly go wrong? Everything! Twice I got my chips in with the best hand and both times I was beaten. Busted in third I can honestly say I have never been so gutted in my entire poker life. That horrible sick feeling in the pit of my stomach is still there even now. Two odds on chances to bag a free holiday with entry to the biggest poker tournament in the world and both got beat. In the last 5 satellite poker tournaments I have played I have finished 4th (top 2 paid), 3rd (1st place prize only), 212th (top 200 paid), 12th (top 10 paid) and 3rd (top 2 paid). Think it’s time I made a sacrifice to the poker gods. Anyone got a spare lamb?

So I’m sure you’ll be glad to know I’m not going to put up my fancies for today. I wouldn’t want to inflict any further misery on you all and open myself up to another flurry of hate emails when they all get beat.

However if you’d like to know what the trends say about the big Group 2 sprint at York today then you can download a copy below…..

DUKE OF YORK STAKES

Good luck,
Gavin.

With Dawn Approach heading the Derby market after his 2000 Guineas romp Aiden O’Brien set about last weeks Derby trials with great zeal to try and dislodge the warm favourite from the top of the market. He didn’t manage to do that but he did win all 4 of the main trials and unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope wins the Dante with consummate ease it’s difficult to see the home challenge being good enough to stop the Irish taking the Derby again this year.

But what of his 4 trial winners? Is there a star amongst them? Or did they just beat a load of inferior rivals? Let’s take a look………

CHESTER VASE

Ruler of the World came into the race on the back of a maiden win at the Curragh. He didn’t race at two but seemed to know his job well enough as he landed that Curragh race by 3/4 length from Manalapan who did though get stuffed next time out. Not so Ruler of the World who landed the four runner Group 3 Chester Vase by 6 lengths from the 93 rated Mister Impatience with another 1 1/2 lengths back to the 100 rated Havana Beat.

Coming round the final bend he certainly didn’t look like he was going to win by such a wide margin but once in the straight he lengthened well and came away from the field in the style of a good horse. He’s obviously still learning, as you’d expect from a twice raced 3yo, but it wasn’t a performance that shouted Derby winner and if he was trained by anyone else other than Aiden O’Brien I think he’d be twice his current odds of 10/1. Not for me although he looked a perfect candidate for the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot.

The 1993 winner Commander in Chief was the last horse to win the Epsom Derby not having run as a 2yo with Morston being the previous one to that, way back in 1973. Those who like coincidences might point out that it was exactly 20 years between those two winning and we are now exactly 20 years on from the last time it happened.
1973 Derby winner unraced at 2, 1993 Derby winner unraced at 2, 2003 Derby winner unraced at 2???? Probably not…….

DEE STAKES

5 runners for this trial but the result was still the same, Aiden O’Brien took it with a horse that won easily from some poor rivals. Magician won by 4 lengths from an 88 rated Ed Dunlop horse who had won a Newbury Conditions race last time out that didn’t exactly take a lot of winning (2nd horse well beaten on both her next two starts).

The race panned out pretty much the same as the Chester Vase with the O’Brien horse taking it up after they had come around the bend and him stretching clear of his rivals with Moore giving him a couple of slaps with the whip. Worth bearing in mind here is that Moore adopted a tactic that proved quite successful over the last two days of the meeting when coming away from the inner rail to race towards the stand side on better ground. This may have made Magician look a little more superior than he was and as his form prior to the race was fairly average I don’t think Aiden O’Brien will be conjuring a win in the Derby from this one. The bookmakers seem to agree with quotes for him of around 20/1.

LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL

This looked a straight match between Greatwood (1/2) and Nevis (11/4) with the other three intended runners looking up against it (8/1, 14/1 & 25/1) but after heavy rain connections withdrew Greatwood minutes before the race leaving Aiden O’Brien’s runner to make all for a very easy 9 length win. With the new second favourite obviously not handling the conditions what did the race tell us? Not very much I’m afraid as the runner up is rated just 78 and the winner was fully entitled to win as he did.

He finished last season being beaten 14 lengths by Dawn Approach in the National Stakes but even then he looked a horse already in need of further than 7f and was always going to be a better 3yo. I did like the way he handled the track, which is similar to Epsom, and I loved the way he put his head down and lengthened well up the straight. He looked very professional and if it remains soft for Epsom I’d prefer his chances each way at 33/1 to either of the Chester winners.

DERRINSTOWN STUD DERBY TRIAL

It was a case of bringing out the big guns at the end of a successful week with Derby second favourite Battle of Marengo ready to put the frighteners on connections of Dawn Approach and lay down his marker for Epsom. With the defection of First Cornerstone leaving just 4 runners we were again left with a short priced Aiden O’Brien horse (2/13) racing against inferior rivals but as it turned out the one left beaming from ear to ear was Jim Bolger who must now think he has very little to worry about, from the Coolmore operation at least.

The second favourite Loch Garman (9/2) was unbeaten and had managed to win an Italian Group 1 race as a 2yo but isn’t in the same league as stable mate Dawn Approach so it must have been very heartening for Jim Bolger to see him give Battle of Marengo a bit of a race of it. Although the favourite won comfortably enough he was only 1 3/4 lengths in front at the line and only another 1 1/4 lengths clear of the rank outsider in third.

Of all the O’Brien trial runners last week he definitely had the toughest challenge but for one so prominent in the Derby betting it was a bit of a let down.

All 4 O’Brien winners look likely to take their chance at Epsom as the Irish trainer adopts his usual mob handed approach to the race but from what I’ve seen this last week Jim Bolger and Dawn Approach still hold all the cards…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

After yesterday’s winner we should still have our heads above water although it was the one I was least confident about!It was that kind of day for me yesterday.

The first race I had it between two, the winner and M’Selle who completely missed the break and then was badly hampered when trying to get back in touch with the field. You can’t afford to do that at Chester! The Cheshire Oaks wasn’t a race I was too interested in but Banoffee was given a great ride by Fallon to get up at 9/1. Countrywide Flame was my best bet of the day and although he ran well I didn’t get paid. He probably didn’t appreciate the long time leader dropping out so tamely 3 furlongs out and leaving his jockey no option but to go for home a bit earlier than he had hoped for.Then in the sprint my selection once again missed the break and spent the next 5 furlongs playing catch-up. The winner came out of stall 3 which kept up the great record of low drawn horses in sprint races at Chester.

On a more positive note for trends subscribers both Banoffee (9/1) and Address Unknown (12/1) were clear top rated giving us 2 winners from just 2 races covered. We also had both forecasts (£108 & £262) from a shortlist of 3 in the Oaks and 5 in the Chester Cup. Nice…

Double (or treble) odds on yesterday’s Lucky 15 should have meant a profit for anyone doing that bet so let’s have another go on the four TV races. I really don’t have a strong fancy today but I’m hoping these 4 should give me a run for my money…..

1.45 Chester

A tough handicap to start off with but I will immediately rule out top weight Mijhaar who will not be for me. Basically he’s unreliable unlike AREA FIFTY ONE who has been the model of consistency in top class handicaps for the past year or so. He has had just one bad run in that time when forced to try and make all at Newbury at the end of last Season. He’s much better when racing up with the pace with another horse giving him a tow. Jamie Spencer’s onboard and from stall 8 he’s got the perfect opportunity to employ those tactics.

2.15 Chester

Bonfire will be all the better for having had a run but his form has really taken a dive since winning the Dante last year. He’s not the first horse to leave his form in that race and I’m happy to oppose him for now. With 4 and 5yo’s completely dominating this race I’ll also take on the 6yo Highland Knight and take a chance on former handicap MIBLISH who has been a revelation on the All Weather this Winter. He gave top class, 121 rated Planteur a real scare in the Lingfield Derby Trial when failing by a neck to reel him in and then showed that was no fluke by easily taking the Listed Magnolia stakes at Kempton. With doubts about most of the field here I think he’s got a great chance and is excellent value at around 9/1.

I’ll give the Chester Vase a miss as the odds on favourite looks a good thing and instead switch to Goodwood for the the 2.30

2.30 Goodwood

Only 9 runners but an open race with 4/1 the field. I don’t think the two market leaders will really appreciate this 9f trip with Lucky Henry looking like he needs further and Charitable Act looking in need of a drop down in distance. It was a bit disappointing to see Pearl Castle fold so tamely at Windsor last time out as his Goodwood maiden win has worked out very well. He’s been dropped a couple of pounds and is respected but I’m going with Amanda Perretts SIR MIKE who has run well on both occasions he’s visited Goodwood and looks sure to appreciate the 9f trip.

3.15 Chester

With no confirmed front runner in the field I wonder if Mark Johnston might revert back to those tactics with FLASHLIGHT and get Joe Fanning to see if he can steal the race from stall 4. He’s down a few pounds on his last couple of runs where he’s been trying a mile and is back down to what looks a favourable mark. I may have got it all wrong but the 12/1 looks too big and I’m happy to take a chance.

Good luck,
Gavin.

With a half decent card at Chester today and Channel 4 covering the first four races I thought I’d take a look to see if I can find anything worth backing.

1.45 Chester

14 runners are set to go to post in the opener (Steventon Star is a non runner) with 11 of the 14 already having won a race.

As is usually the case at Chester the draw plays a big part in this race with 15 of the last 16 renewals going to a horse drawn 1-5! The odd one out was back in 2001 when Simianna defied stall 8 for Alan Berry and Francis Norton.

So I’ll begin by ruling out any with a double figure draw.

All bar 1 of the previous 16 winners had finished top 4 on their last start. The exception Digital Image (1999) was making his debut.

So let’s forget any outside the top 4 last time out.

Just 1 of the last 15 winners to have raced had their previous run on the All Weather and all 15 contested a class 3-5 race.

Leaving me to pick from a list of 5: Sleepy Joe, Blithe Spirit, M’Selle, Lilo Lil and Quatour

The favourite Quatour may find it difficult to take his customary early lead from out in stall 8 while the form of another front runner’s win, Blithe Spirit, at Ripon has taken a few knocks recently. Lilo Lil has found one too good on each of her last three starts and is another who likes to race up with the pace.I fear in this large field of decent juveniles she may find one or two too good again. Sleepy Joe won his only start in a slow time and the second that day got turned over at even money in a 4 runner race at Goodwood last week.

While I respect the chances of Quatour I’m siding with the Luke Morris ridden M’Selle who has the plum draw in stall 1. She won her first race in fine style before being raised in class for her next two starts. At Newmarket she tired in the last half furlong in a 5 runner race and then was never competitive in a 4 runner race at Newcastle. I think back on this tight track in a big field she’ll be in her element and able to resume winning ways.

Selection: M’Selle
Danger: Quatour

2.15 Chester

The usual collection of maidens, maiden winners, handicappers and Listed race also-rans contest the Cheshire Oaks and after the 50/1 Good Morning Star won last years renewal after getting beat in a class 5 Beverley handicap on her previous start, anything could happen!

It’s not a race I’m that interested in with the favourite having her first run of the season and taking a significant step up in trip, the top rated horse stepping up from 7f after contesting Group races and 3 of the 4 last time out winners having won all weather maidens.

If pushed I’d probably side with Banoffee who made all last time out to win a Newbury maiden.

2.45 Chester

I have a very strong fancy in the Chester Cup and, although I won’t be winning any prizes for originality, I think the favourite is a good thing. He has so much going for him and the final piece of the jigsaw fell nicely into place when he landed a nice draw. He stays, has a bit of class about him, has won over the course, is fit from the hurdles and races up with the pace. Just about everything you need in a Chester Cup winner.

Selection: Countrywide Flame

3.15 Chester

If you ever wanted to know just how important a low draw is in sprint races at Chester then take a look at this chart which shows the winning stall numbers for all 5f-5.5f races at the track since 2003……

Simply backing the horse drawn in stall 1 is actually a very profitable system with an incredible near 1 in 4 winners coming from that stall.

Drawn 1 today is Last Sovereign who has the benefit of a recent run, is in good form and has won over the course before.

In an open race he’s sure to give a good account of himself.

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My main bet today will be COUNTRYWIDE FLAME in the Chester Cup with a small eachway double on him and M’SELLE.

I may have a small Lucky 15 on the four just for something to watch on the telly this afternoon. You never know….

Good luck,
Gavin.

Firstly, thanks for all your Hunt Ball guesses. I’ll keep the competition open until Sunday night and then that will be it, no more entries. If you haven’t had a go and want to guess how much Hunt Ball will sell for at the Sales then please enter in the comments for this blog post only ……. http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/midweek-fun/

Guesses so far range from £50 – £360,000 though if he went for £50 I’d be tempted to buy him myself!

Thanks also for all the lovely emails and comments after my midweek double came up.Not a bad little return with the double paying 15.5-1.

We should all be in credit after the 12/1 winner last Saturday in the Lucky 15 and with my early Season form holding up, what better time to try and nail that life changing Lucky 15. In this bet I’ve tried to come up with 4 big priced horses so we can bet small and hopefully win big. If you’re not interested in tilting at windmills then my two strong fancies can be found on the tipping page (click the tab at the top of this post)

FOUR FOR THE LUCKY 15

LICENCE TO TILL (2.05 Newmarket. Saturday) – There are a lot of unexposed runners in the field from the top Newmarket stables and they’re bound to be popular in the betting but I prefer the chances of Mark Johnston’s runner. He was kept very busy last Season running 24 times but remarkably he kept his form pretty well all year despite having to race off a mark in the mid 90′s. That mark has now dropped to 86 and if he’s allowed to make the running I reckon he looks set to show the youngsters a thing or two.

CALEDONIA LADY (2.35 Newmarket. Sunday)- I backed this filly in the corresponding race last year where she ran an absolute cracker to finish a close up 6th despite suffering interference when making her usual late run. She had her comeback run in the same Bath race as last Season where once again she was seen doing all her best work late on. With a fast pace assured I’m hopeful of a big run at big odds (33/1 Boylesports).

GABRIELS LAD (3.10 Newmarket. Sunday)- He’s shown form in big handicaps, he’s proved he can handle the ground, he’s done nothing but improve throughout his career and he ended last Season with a win in a class 2 sprint at Ascot. He also won first time out last year and I like his chances a lot.

MAUREEN (3.50 Newmarket. Sunday)- The 1000 Guineas is a lot more open that the colts version and looks ripe for one of the lesser fancied runners to cause an upset. Richard Hannon’s supposed second string has done very little wrong and has excuses for her poor run in the Cheverley Park where she was carried across the course by a wayward runner. Her best run of last season came on firm ground and she has the benefit of a run already when showing a willing attitude to take the Fred Darling on her Seasonal re-appearance. Olivier Peslier looks a good booking and at 14/1 she is the value in the race.

Good luck,
Gavin.

There are a couple of cracking little contests this afternoon at Ascot which serve as a nice appetizer for the weekend’s main fare from Newmarket.

3.00 Ascot

Sir Henry Cecil’s runner Stipulate has some very decent form to his name but always seems to find at least one horse too good and is therefore overlooked. Don’t Call Me and Sovereign Debt ran 2nd and 4th in a mile Listed race at Doncaster but it wasn’t a race that got me excited at the time and I’m not sure how good that form will turn out to be. The one that I’m looking to is the John Gosden trained FENCING who never really built on his encouraging 2yo form on his 4 runs last year although he didn’t have the run of the race on a couple of occasions. After starting off with an encouraging 6th in the 2000 Guineas he stepped up in trip for his next run in the Dante. He cantered up to the leaders at the 2 furlong pole but didn’t get home and finished a one paced 4th. Forget his run in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot as he was badly hampered when his stablemate The Nile broke down in the race and bad luck conspired against him once more when he raced in the Group 2 7f Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. Travelling well he couldn’t find a gap when the race started in earnest and once in the clear he was unable to close down the winner. Granted a clear passage I am very confident of a big run.

3.35 Ascot

There are a couple of foreign raiders entered with form that is hard to evaluate and are probably here with a view to next months Royal meeting. They include joint top rated runner Tres Rock Danon who was last seen finishing 7th of 7 in a Group 2 at Deauville. He has form in the book that would give he every chance of winning this and has competed at the highest level on a number of occasions but he doesn’t look the most reliable of horses and he’s not for me. I prefer the chances of another ‘dodgepot’ Askar Tau who seems to save his best form for Ascot and won this race in 2011. George Baker knows him better than anyone and the 4 times he’s ridden him at Ascot they have finished 1st, 5th & 4th in the Group 1 Gold Cup and 3rd (3/4 length behind Rite Of Passage). My only concern is that he usually needs a run to get him to his peak and this will be his Seasonal debut.

The one I do like the look of is ESTIMATE from the Sir Michael Stoute yard and owned by the Queen. She won the the Queens Vase over course and distance at Royal Ascot last Season before twice running 3rd to Wild Coco in a couple of all aged Group races. Those were both over slightly shorter trips and back up to 2 miles she makes plenty of appeal.

———

And now for something completely different…..

You may have seen that top chase handicapper Hunt Ball is going to the sales after a bit of a falling out between owner and trainer.  Apparently it all came to a head when their Paddy Power stunt at the Cheltenham Festival (they had the horses hind legs painted green with big P’s stenciled on) got them both fined last week. The sale takes place on May 15th and since the news broke there’s been a lot of speculation as to how much the horse will make with guestimates ranging from £75,000 all the way up to £400,000.

So, all I want to know is how much do you think Hunt Ball is worth? What will the highest bid be?

Anyone guessing correctly (or nearest guess) can have a Summer TTS Membership (which starts May 20th).

If it helps you in your decision Corals are betting 7/2 £200k-£249k, 4/1 £250k – £299k, 5/1 £150k – £199k, 5/1 £300k – £349k, 6/1 £100k – £149k, 13/2 £350k – £399k, 7/1 £400k or over, 14/1 Under £100k

Personally, I think there’s still a lot of enjoyment to be had with the horse like him and he seems to handle being in training well so he could prove very popular. If I won the Euromillions and wanted a bit of fun on the odd Saturday and a Festival runner I’d be interested but I wouldn’t want to pay much more than £200k. £205k looks about right to me.

What do you think? Leave your guess in the comments box and best of luck!
Gavin.

P.S. Anyone in the Doncaster aea thinking of going racing this Saturday might find this Groupon deal worth a look. For £39 you get entry to the course and the Capital FM marquee plus Live music after racing from The Saturday’s and Lawson. Details here…..

http://www.groupon.co.uk/deals/leeds/Doncaster-Racecourse/20912104

A lovely 12/1 win from Directorship on Saturday probably didn’t change anyone’s life but it did ensure we made a nice profit on our bet. It also meant that I recouped all my previous losses on the horse and I can safely leave him alone now as he seldom runs two races alike.

The flat Season has started brilliantly for me and I’m hoping it will continue this weekend with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. The trends have been performing okay as well with Trumpet Major and Al Khazeem providing us with a couple of decent priced winners at Sandown. The latter named is a horse I like a lot and he’s one I’ll be following through the Season in all the top 10f races. I would imagine something like the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown’s May evening meeting will be his next port of call before stepping up against the big boys at Royal Ascot. If that goes well then it’s the Eclipse back at Sandown and then on to either the International at York or one of the Champion Stakes races (Leopardstown / Ascot) before a trip over the pond for the Breeders Cup.

This time next year, Rodney, we’ll be millionaires. Lovely Jubbly!

Firstly though, lets take a look at both Guineas being run this weekend……

2000 GUINEAS

I think we can expect a small field lining up for the colts version this year with very few runners looking unexposed and able to cause a shock result. Which just leaves the question ‘which one of the fancied runners will win?’.

The 2000 Guineas winner is nearly always by a sire with a stamina index of 8f+ who had won a Group 1 or Grade 1 turf race. The winner usually finished in the top 3 on their previous start, had won at least 50% of all their races and had run in a Group race.

Which unsurprisingly leaves us with a shortlist of just…..

DAWN APPROACH or TORONADO

You probably didn’t need me to tell you that the front two in the betting have excellent chances of winning the 2000 Guineas this Season but there we have it, according to some very strong trends nothing beats the favourites.

Toronado showed superb form to win the Craven but I slightly favour DAWN APPROACH who was simply awesome as a 2yo and has supposedly trained on into a beast of a horse.

1000 GUINEAS

Last years race was a bit of a farce with Homecoming Queen stealing the race from the start and coming home 9 lengths clear of the field. She definitely wasn’t a female version of Frankel and that she ran nowhere near that form on her next two starts when favourite in the Irish Guineas and the Coronation Stakes tells us all we need to know.

She did though fit most of the trends of previous 1000 Guineas winners in that she had finished in the top 4 on her last start, had won 1 of her last two runs, had been placed in Listed or better company and had run at least twice as a juvenile.

Applying these solid trends would give us a shortlist of: Big Break, Just The Judge, Magical Dream, Maureen, Roz, Snow Queen and What A Name

A notable absentee from that shortlist is the current favourite Hot Snap as all of the last 16 winners of the 1000 Guineas had run at least twice as a juvenile (Hot Snap ran once)

So, of the 7 I will immediately discount Magical Dream, Roz & Snow Queen as I don’t think they’re good enough. Big Break is not a certain runner which leaves me choosing from a shorter, shortlist of 3.

Just the Judge won the Rockfel at the end of last Season and that is usually a pretty good trial for this race but the form has been let down time and time again making me think it wasn’t the strongest renewal of that Group 2 race. Respected but overlooked for now….

Maureen won the Fred Darling on her comeback run this Season and that is another good trial for the 1000 Guineas. She was an unlucky loser in last years Group 1 Cheverley Park having been carried across the course by a wayward Baileys Jubilee and is better judged on her Newbury win this year. My only problem with that race is the favourite Rodshu Queen got upset in the stalls and didn’t give her true running that day and so it’s hard to say how good the form is. Hannon has booked Olivier Peslier for Saturday though and at 14/1 she has good each way claims.

Which leaves me siding with the French raider WHAT A NAME who was value for much more than the neck she won the Prix Imprudence by at the beginning of April. The way she finished her race that day makes me believe stamina is not an issue and the Rowley Mile will hold no fears for her. She put up a cracking performance behind the colt Olympic Glory last term when beaten 1 1/4 lengths having been given too much to do and with that one having won the Greenham on his first start this year her form is rock solid. French  trainer Mikel Dezangles is no stranger to having horses run well in our Guineas and is adamant firmer ground will see further improvement in his star filly. At the current odds she’s the one for me.

The double currently pays over 14/1…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

Regular readers will know that I love a game of poker in my spare time and that I’ve been lucky enough to play in some of the biggest poker events in the world (including the World Series Main Event in Las Vegas) but there’s one poker tournament happening this Summer that I really, really, really want to play in.

It’s the ISPT event and the reason for my heightened interest is that all those who qualify for day 2 of the event get to play out the rest of the tournament on the hallowed turf of Wembley Stadium. Yes, you actually get to play poker on the Wembley pitch.

I mean, how cool is that?

When I was growing up, like most boys, I always dreamed of being a professional footballer and playing at Wembley but a lack of skill (amongst many other things) denied me that ambition.

Now 30 odd years later my love of a card game could actually make part of that dream come true.

So, if you’re like me and play poker it’s time to forget Vegas, Wembley’s where it’s at this Summer…….

1,000 International Stadiums Poker Tour Seats Guaranteed

The International Stadiums Poker Tour is your chance to say you played at Wembley. €1 million is guaranteed to the winner. Day ones start live and online from May 11th and day two takes place at the iconic home of English football, Wembley Stadium, between May 31st and June 5th.

You can qualify for free at Dusk Till Dawn Poker, where 1,000 €300 Day One seats will be guaranteed in satellites between May 6th and May 24th.

To win your seat, all you have to do is:

1. Visit the International Stadiums Poker Tour Schedule Page for details on qualifying.

2. Register an account at Dusk Till Dawn Poker, where you will be automatically credited with a €2 satellite token.

3. If you win a €300 day one seat you can use it online or live in one of 10 day ones being held. You can win multiple tickets as this is a re-entry event.

Good luck and I hope to see you on the famous Wembley turf,
Gavin.

I’ve done a bit of research in the race going back to 1997. In this time there have been a total of 359 runners take part which gives an average field size of 22 runners.

AGE OF WINNER:

All 16 winners were aged from 7yo – 11yo. There have been 12 6yo runners who have managed 3 places between them and there have been 20 horses to have run that were 12yo or older who have also managed 3 places. 7yo’s have managed just 1 winner in the time period (Gingembre 2001) from 50 runners and may be another age group to take on. 8yo’s have accounted for 7 of the 16 winners from just 88 runners (8% win strike) and solely backing every 8yo horse to run in the Scottish National since 1997 would have won you +53.5pts to level stakes.

For now I’ll remove the 2 6yo’s and the sole 12yo in the field.

WEIGHT AND RATINGS:

The weight range for the Scottish National doesn’t help very much as winners have carried as little as 9-07 and as much as 11-12. Nor surprisingly only 1 horse fell outside of this range. 10 of the 16 winners carried 10-06 or less and 13 of the 16 carried 11-02 or less with the other 3 shouldering top weight of 11-10 or 11-12. 18 horses have tried lumping between 11-03 and 11-09 since 1997 without success.

The highest rating of any horse to win the Scottish National since 1997 was 150. The 18 horses rated higher than this have all been beaten. At the other end of the rating scale we see that the lowest rated horses to win have been 124 & 127 but those two wins were the only ones from the 108 horses to have run that were rated less than 132.

For now I’ll remove any runner carrying 11-03 or more but leave the top-weights in and lose the runner rated less than 124. This takes out another 7 horses.

POSITION LAST TIME OUT:

Incredibly for such a competitive race there hasn’t been a winner of the Scottish National since before 1997 that finished outside the top 6 on their previous start. This would have ruled out 147 of the 359 runners to have contested this race including the 33 who fell, the 23 who unseated and the 35 who pulled up last time out. Of those that completed the course last time out, the 27 that finished 9th or worse ALL finished UNPLACED on their run in the Scottish National.

It’s easy to remove the 7 horses that remain who pulled up last time out.

CHASE STARTS:

All 16 winners had between 2 and 24 chase runs under their belt although 13 of the 16 had between 6 and 24. Beshebar in 2011 is the only winner in the last 16 years to have had less than 4 career chase runs. The 21 runners to have had more than 25 chase runs ALL finished unplaced.

This does little to reduce the shortlist as the most experienced of those that are left has 24 chase starts.

SEASONAL RUNS

All of the last 16 winners had run at least 3 times already that Season.

4 of the 16 winners had their last run in the previous 6 – 15 day period while the remaining 12 winners had been rested at least 26 days. No winner since at least 1997 has been able to win the Scottish National by defying a break of 84 days or more.

We can take out 1 of our remaining 9 horses

Other facts:

No horse has stepped up from a Class 4 or worse race on their last start to take the Scottish National since at least 1997. 15 of the last 16 winners ran in a handicap on their last start. 20 runners had their last start in a hurdle race and all were beaten in the Scottish National (just 2 placed)

Neptune Equester ran in a class 4 novice hurdle last time out

48 runners have come directly from the Grand National and they have managed just 3 places between them. The only horse to do the Grand National-Scottish National double in the same year was Red Rum in 1974.

The stats are against Aurora’s Encore making history.

Not surprisingly 15 of the last 16 winners had proven themselves over extreme distances with a win over at least 3 miles (Joes Edge exception in 2005).

That’s enough for me to rule out Nuts N Bolts and Fill The Power

We have 4 left: Problema Tic (33/1), Monsieur Cadou (14/1), Rebeccas Choice (25/1) and Lively Baron (28/1).

Trends subscribers will know that I went with the Pipe horse on the basis that he was the only one with a rating above 132. But he is a 7yo and I will be having a saver on Dai Burchells inform runner.

Selections: PROBLEMA TIC (33/1) & REBECCAS CHOICE (25/1)

Good luck,
Gavin.

I love a bet on the golf but unfortunately I’m absolutely rubbish at picking winners at it. My usual knack of picking the second place finisher wouldn’t be that bad given the big odds you get on your golfer but it seems backing the runner up is just something I do on the horses.

Over the years I’ve tried following the Racing Post tipsters (they only ever tipped the winners the week I didn’t bother), I’ve tried following certain golfers until they win (they always win the week after I’ve got bored and given up on them) and I’ve tried following family members and friends who are shrewd judges when it comes to golf (they never seem to find the winners when they’re under the spotlight) so I think it’s time to try a different approach.

In an attempt to find the winner this year I’ve been looking for all the stats I can find on the Masters. A sort of ‘trends’ guide. This is what I’ve found…..

1)  No debutant has won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller (great name!) in 1979

There are 17 golfers having their first run out in the Masters this year….Olesen, Coetzee, Henley, Grace, Piercy, Huh, Donaldson, Lynn, Peterson, Potter, Wiratchant, Fox, Dunbar, Weaver, Vogel and Guan

Since 2003 only 3 winners have managed to win within their first Masters attempts. According to the Racing Post the average number of visits to Augusta before a Masters win is 6.

2) No Australian has ever put on the coveted Green Jacket (this is the 77th Masters)

This removes Scott, Day, Senden and Leishman as they all ‘come from a land down-under’

All together now….. “Do you come from a land down under?
Where women glow and men plunder?
Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover.”

3) Each of the last 10 winners made the cut in the previous years Masters

This removes quite a few including a few big names like Day, KJ Choi and Ryan Moore (the golfer not the jockey!)

4) The last 10 Masters winners had a Top 10 finish that Season

Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson have both struggled so far this season

5) All of the last 10 winners came from the top 70 world ranked players (8/10 top 50)

Which removes some of the rags Stewart Cink, VJ Singh, Yang, Trevor Immelman

6) The last 10 winners were all aged under 40 (and over 26)

Removing oldtimers Phil Mickelson, Freddie Couples and youngsters like Ricky Fowler and Rory McIlroy

7) Jose Maria Olazabal was the last winning European back in 1999

The USA have won 57 of the 76 Masters, South Africa have won 5, Spain 4 and England 3

Every PGA tour event this Season has been won by an American.

———–

 Which I reckon leaves us with a ‘shortlist’ of about 16 from the 93 entries.

From these 16 I will look for the power drivers because at over 7400 yards you won’t be able to reach some of the par 5′s without reaching for the big guns. Again, according to the Racing Post it’s a course that now suits the bold, attacking, big hitting players who possess nerves of steel.

Which I think halves the shortlist in one fail swoop and gives the winner coming from this list of 8…..

Tiger Woods, Charl Schwartzel, Keegan Bradley, Louis Oosthuizen, Blubba Watson, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney and Bill Haas

The last named has serious ‘bottle’ issues and couldn’t be relied upon to ‘close the deal’, Tigers too short in the betting for me, Keegan Bradley has only played the Masters once and Nick Watney is another player to struggle since signing with his new sponsor Nike (doesn’t really make you want to rush out and buy a Nike golf set does it?).

I think my two main bets will be…..

Charl Schwartzel who won in 2011 and has been in terrific form this season

Hunter Mahan who has a solid record so far in the Masters and has improved his short game over the last year.

An interesting stat which apparently has something to do with the way Augusta is now set up is that left handers have won 5 of the last 10 Masters. With this in mind my 3rd and 4th choices will be….

defending champion Blubba, I mean, Bubba Watson

and

Phil ‘Leftie’ Mickelson who is a little too old but has the best Masters record of any player in the field.

4 off the Tee

Charl Schwartzel (28/1)
Hunter Mahan (50/1)
Bubba Watson (40/1)
Phil Mickelson (16/1)

Paddy Power and Sportingbet are paying Each Way 1/4 odds first 6. The rest are paying 1/4 odds first 5.

Good luck,
Gavin.

After his 20/1 winner yesterday I’ve had a few emails this morning asking what he fancies today. He’s out on the golf course with his son at the moment but sent me this list before he went.

Odds on favourites aren’t really his thing so he’s just concentrating on the two big handicaps today.

3.40 Aintree

Renard & State Benefit

4.50 Aintree

Manyriverstocross & Barbatos

He recommends each way singles and 4 x each way doubles

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. To follow his tips on twitter simply click here https://twitter.com/gary_priestley

I’ve managed to persuade Gary to share his thoughts and tips on a few races for today.

He’s covered the Foxhunters and the Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle for trends subscribers but here are his fancies for the other 5 races…….

2.00 VASCO DU RONCERAY 8/1 to upset stable companion and likely favourite Rolling Star. Rolling Star flattened out very quickly at Cheltenham having previously looked very good when beating subsequent Adonis winner Irish Saint. Vasco looks to represent some value in opposing the fav.

2.30 WAYWARD PRINCE 66/1 I’ve had a small ew bet in the hope that his dismal Cheltenham Gold Cup run can be put behind him on a return to a track that has seen him run 1st 4th and 1st. I couldn’t be having Silviniaco Conti at odds-on in a race that is renowned for its upsets which leads me to think that my Irish National fancy Whodoyouthink at 125/1 could easily run a big race as well.

3.05 OSCAR WHISKEY 13/2 In a race full of talented 2 milers running over the extended trip of 2m4f you have to stick with proven stamina and this makes Oscar look an outstanding bet at 13/2.

4.15 ANQUETTA 20/1 & OISEAU DE NUIT 14/1 I was very quick off the blocks here as when I saw the 20/1 Anquetta I knew that wouldn’t last he is now trading at around 14/1. He ran much better than his finishing position would suggest at Cheltenham. Oiseau De Nuit should of won this race 2 years ago but for a very bad blunder at the 2nd fence, he ran off a 5lb higher mark that day but carried only 9-09 so goes to show this is not the classiest of renewals. He showed at Cheltenham he can still run with the best 2 mile handicappers and again should run his race.

4.50 HIS EXCELLENCY 12/1 although very quirky he ran 2 good races at Cheltenham, he finished a close ish 3rd to Simonsig in the Arkle and was then travelling very nicely when falling at the 4th last at Cheltenham just 3 days later in the Grand Annual. I’m not convinced that Captain Conan is a world beater and Fago is looking to recapture his form after disappointing last time out.

I’m sure if you follow Gary on Twitter you can find out his selections for both the 3.40 & 5.25. https://twitter.com/gary_priestley

Good Luck
Gary

Thanks for all the lovely emails and comments after Monday’s little April Fool. It’s good to know there are still plenty of people with a sense of humour left in the world (well apart from one reader anyway!). I just hope the Ladbrokes telephone advisors are amongst them and were able to see the funny side of it all.

I also hope you downloaded the trends guide for the Irish National in the same post as from our shortlist of 4 we had the winner at 50/1, the second at 25/1 (£1041 forecast), the 5th and a faller! With the top rated runner being a non-runner it also meant that the 50/1 winner was actually the joint highest rated in the race. I know we didn’t ‘officially’ give it as a selection but judging by the number of emails I have received quite a few of you were able to spot it and back it accordingly. Someone even managed to beat the Betfair SP of 139/1 by getting 277/1 on it! Well done if you were on.

And that wasn’t the only success story of the weekend as anyone who follows my brother on Twitter will know. He had one of his monster tipping days on Saturday when picking Cladding as his bet of the day at 40/1 (adv.) and just failed to land a dream double when his other pick finished 2nd at 25/1 on the same card. I just wish I had decided to join him at Newton Abbot on Saturday afternoon instead of taking the family to Paignton Pier…. Doh!

All in all, a great Bank Holiday weekend……

And if you want to do it all again with us this week at Aintree then the Trends Package is available for just £14.95.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

That’s every race at the meeting covered by the full trends service, a daily email with the Placepot Perms and updates PLUS Gary’s 4 for the Meeting.

And if you didn’t subscribe to Cheltenham and wanted to know how Gary’s Famous 4 got on there, he had a 33/1 3rd, a 14/1 5th (paid by some firms) and 2 non runners (NR No Bet advised). He missed out on the big winner this year but still returned a nice profit on the 4.

All subscribers will also get the full service from the Punchestown Festival later this month and Sandown’s end of Season Betfred Chase.

———–

PETER BOWEN

I flag this up every year and once again in 2012 he didn’t let us down with one such winner from 3 runners.

At Aintree, back all Peter Bowen runners in fields of more than 18 runners who are carrying less than 11-oo and are upped in class from their last start by 2 or more grades.

6 winners from 10 runners and a Level Stakes Profit of +£106 PLUS at least 1 winner and a LSP for every year he has had a qualifier.

Always Waining would be a qualifier if running in Saturday’s Grand National.

Good luck,
Gavin.