It feels, dear reader, very much like the last day of school today. You see, the 30th April is the end of the TrainerTrackStats (TTS) season.

TTS runs, as many of you know, from beginning of September to end of April. And, as many of you also know, it’s been nicely lining your pockets (and mine!) during this time.

The full results sheet is now up on the site here. This was the second season that I have published my research, and I’m somewhat proud of the fact that its also the second season that TTS followers have made a healthy return. For those of you with an appetite for such things, the 2006/7 seasonal results are here.

The tale of the tape is that in 2006/7, TTS made just over 60 points profit to betfair odds (£1,207 to £20 stakes).

In the season just finished, we made a fantastic 96.8 points profit to betfair odds (or £1,936 to £20 stakes).

If you think these results are anything less than impressive, then you are either VERY new to horse racing and believe there is an alchemy solution somewhere, or you are awaiting a lift in the blue lighted ice cream van to the nut house… ;o)

I charged the princely fee of £57 in the first season and, based on the success, perversely only £37 in the second season. Why? Because I want the little guy to get closer to being in front.

The results of yesterday’s survey - so far, 408 have replied (thanks a million: I’ve been amazed at the response rate!) - are that 66% of respondents are losing or breaking even in their betting overall.

And also, interestingly, 66% of you use betfair or another betting exchange to bet most often. (For the other third of you, do you know you’re losing money by not using betfair?! Click the link on the left of the page, get £25 for depositing a tenner, and get 20% better odds the next time you place a bet!!)

My point is that two thirds of you are taking advantage of betfair AND STILL DOING NO BETTER THAN BREAKING EVEN!

Which means that before betfair, I can include the 31% (this includes me!) who said they are winning a bit, and confidently state that 97% of us were doing no better than breaking even.

So, here it is: rule number one. If you want to stand any chance of winning at betting, open a betfair account NOW. Better still, do it through my link on the left hand side, and we’ll both get a thank you from betfair (you £25, me £20). Happy days :o)

So, that places into context, what a good result it is to make 60 or 100 points from a rigid statistical approach to betting, using a tool such as TTS.

TrainerFlatStats (now all but off the market, except for subscription only) has had a mercurial season to date, with a flying start quickly countered by a week in the doldrums. The only TFS qualifier today won at 6/1, which was a welcome riposte to what had gone before, and illustrates that it only takes one winner to make a big difference on the monthly points tally. TFS is marginally in front for the fledgling season.

Ok, what else did I learn from the survey?

A whopping 95.5% of you bet a few times a week up to every day. Wow!

Average stake is about five pounds, with a few big players out there. 50p or £50 punter: you’re all equally welcome here. Nag3 has no hierarchy (except that I’m the one with the virtual pen!).

[Incidentally, for those of you who work in an office environment, here's my number one tip for meetings. If you want to get your point across, make sure you are the scribe. No matter what is said in the meeting, if you are the minute taker you have a degree of freedom to 'interpret' / 'massage' what others have said so that their words align merrily with your tune... Apologies if that's slightly off topic!]

A really interesting point that came out from the survey results is that less than 10% of you bet most often at a high street bookie. Now we probably all pop in from time to time, but its amazing to think that in the ten years or so that the internet has been truly mainstream, 90% of us now prefer to wager online. Wow again!

And only 5% of you don’t have an online betting account of some description. That’s a third wow!

A further point that surprised me - pleasantly - about the survey results is that only 6.6% of you didn’t think it was possibly to make money consistently from betting.

One sixth of you weren’t sure, and an excellent optimistic 77.2% of you believe that it is possible to make consistent money betting. That’s bloody marvellous, guys and girls! Because that’s what we’re about here, and we don’t want the nay-sayers and profits of doom discolouring our bright skies.

If you’re one of the ‘don’t know’ camp, then I hope that you will be in the ‘yes’ camp after a time with Nag3. :o)

You can see all of the survey responses (less people’s email addresses of course!) here.

Incidentally, one of the things you can’t see in the attached is the comments about the one thing that would make you a better bettor. An overwhelming majority of you said that DISCIPLINE was the key that you were missing.

I tend to agree with you (having layed Bankable this afternoon, even though I thought it would probably win), and I’ll be doing some stuff on how to train yourself to be better disciplined in the coming weeks.

The five lucky winners of TFS guides this time are:

brenmarbay
ptchsmith
geoffstraw
m45adams
clifjenkinson

Well done to you guys, and - again - thanks a lot to everyone who shared their views. It’s proved truly instructive once again.

Crikey, is it Friday already, dear reader? And not just any old Friday, but Friday before a Bank Holiday! Woohoo!

Now lest you are concerned about the forecast (those readers in Australia and NZ need not fret, nor need you gloat!!), let me assure you that the Met Office is predicting broadly sunny weather for the weekend. And of course, the Met Office are known for their infallibility… Ahem… Well, at least it gives us hope!

Now then, I know we’ve only just finished York’s Juddmonte meeting and - as I’ve mentioned - we are not yet even at the August Bank Holiday.

But I need to remind you that darker times are ahead…

Yes, racing fans, the evening racing will draw to a close next week (although there will be plenty of floodlit action from Wolves, Kempton and the new Dundalk - not to mention Great Leighs if it ever opens!), and the jumping action starts to ramp up from the beginning of September.

In my piece yesterday, apart from blowing out on the placepot at York (though Mine ran a great race in 4th at 16/1, and I did tip the 2yo to win the Nunthorpe! Amazing training performance from a brilliant up and coming trainer. Look out for John Best), I managed to bag the forecast at Chester (the third horse mentioned in the exacta was a non-runner).

Incidentally, the third home in that race was the only other horse with experience and was the fourth best drawn horse in the race. Shocking then that his odds were 80/1!!!

My tip in the sprint, Calypso King, was a non-runner.

But what I really want to mention - again - is the amazing power of backing trainers at tracks. Although Jonjo’s chaser was disappointing at Stratford, the boys at Fontwell did me proud.

Here is the full tale of the tape for the trainers flagged up yesterday:

5.25 1st 25/1, 2nd 33/1, 4th 8/1, 6th 25/1, 11th 16/1, PU 10/1
5.55 6th 4/1, UR 16/1
6.25 1st 11/2, 3rd 14/1
6.55 No runners
7.25 5th 14/1
7.55 4th 25/1

Brendan Powell and Alan King, described by me yesterday as legends, underlined their status on this card.

Powell slammed in the forecast in the first (paid £621.27!) with 25/1 and 33/1 shots; King snaffled the third with an 11/2 shot (Powell only managing 3rd at 14/1).

The other lesser trainers had some huge priced beasties run close but without any danger of rolled tobacco.

A unit on each of the runners last night would have returned a very tidy profit.

As a further teaser for you, I’ve put the candidate trainer stats up on a page… but with the trainers names missing! And, in case you think you can compare the table with the Racing Post charts or some such, I’ve got some bad news for you. I only look at the record from September to April, and I only look at horses priced 14/1 or shorter. I know, I’m a sneaky blighter.

Anyway, if you’d like to see what’s going on, have a look at my TrainerTrackStats preview page.

Bear in mind that, unless stated otherwise, the ‘fine tuning’ has yet to be done. That is, the records are for all of a trainer’s runners in the defined time and price parameters. But you’ll get the idea, for sure.

Like I said, I’m excited about this season, because there are so many strong trends. The problem is going to be whittling them down. I think what I’ll do this season is nominate the top two or three a la TrainerFlatStats, and mention the others as worthy of a second glance (though for subscribers they’ll not feature in the emails). That said, this is not yet caste in stone.

I don’t really fancy much today, but draw bias at Thirsk (high numbers in sprints on good to firm) leads me to take a close look at Call For Liberty in the 1.30 (best form, best draw). His chief rivals, in the betting at least, are drawn 2 and 3 (i.e. almost the worst draws possible).

In the 4.45, a 5f sprint, its interesting that the top four in the market are all badly drawn. Racing Post informs us that 7/10 5f sprints this season have gone to the top three stalls. Perm them in exactas and CSF’s (half stake on each). That’s Yorke’s Folly, Smiddy Hill, and Miacarla. It may also be worth chucking in Princess Cleo (drawn 10) for a great chance to collect.

That’s it from me. Back later with Friday fun, though please note there may be little of interest on the blog this weekend, as I will be researching Trainer Track Stats and may try to get away for a day or two as well.

Finally, just a quick line to say thank you to those people who were kind enough to comment on my little story the other day. I know it didn’t really belong here, but I just wanted to give a virtual voice to some of my thoughts. Thanks again.

Until later, pip pip!
Matt