Archive for the ‘Monday Musing’ Category

Monday Musing: Referee!

Monday, August 20th, 2007

Monday, dear reader, already. And what a wet one it is too, at least in this leafy alcove in Hackney.

After a couple of close ones on Saturday (Obe Gold especially), Laying System got its only horse of the day beaten (out of the frame at 7/4) for a good Sunday, following on from four out four turned over on Saturday. In fairness, this was much needed after a couple of decent priced winners in the week set us back a bit.

I chose not to play the footy yesterday, and rightly so. I fancied Manchester United, but they are a big toothless basking shark at the moment, and need to find their stride quickly, before its over for them.

As for Liverpool and Chelsea, the only word I can use for the refereeing performace of Rob Styles is ‘inept’.

In a game with a fair amount of huff and puff, but very little ‘blow your house in’, Styles barely had a decision to make. There wasn’t a bad tackle in the game (though there were a few petulant little kicks), and - happily - there wasn’t a dive in the game.

And yet, this became a card fest, with a fiesta of yellow and a touch of red that would have graced a Madrid derby, arbitrated by one of the Spanish League’s more finnicky middlemen.

After the farce at Fulham on Saturday, I am rapidly revising my opinion of video replays for goalmouth incidents.

The fact is that there is rarely much incident in a game that would require the ‘3rd umpire’ as rugby calls it. In a compelling end to end match, the video might be called for three times. Usually, it would not be required at all.

The main reason for my change of heart is not that I am especially in favour of technology encroaching in the beautiful game (rather, in this case, I am a traditionalist and believe that there should be some mistakes and grey areas to discuss in the pub).

However, there are mistakes and mistakes. The current litany of officiating howlers is unacceptable, and it is only the ineptitude of the men in black that sways me to suggest assistance for them.

Sure, the game is getting faster, and also there is more and more cash at stake, from the fans, from the clubs, and - of course, from us punters.

If I’d backed Liverpool yesterday, I’d be spitting feathers for longer than Rafa ranted.

My biggest worry now is that referees are trying to take their moment in the limelight. The days of a ref having a great game by being virtually anonymous are pretty much over. Step forward then, the cult of the referee ‘personality’.

It started with undoubtedly the best adjudicator of them all, Pierluigi Collina, a man whose bald head and Marty Feldman’esque stary eyes marked him out more for Hollywood bad guy roles than maintainer of the peace.

This guy’s credibility bestowed upon him cult status, as did his looks. Since then though, its been a slippery slope, with first the Spanish refs getting column inches for the issuance of ‘tarjetas’ (or cards as we like to call them), and then Graham Poll (a ref I actually like on balance) having that mare at the World Cup, when he gave one player THREE yellow cards before finally sending him off.

Lest we think its all doom and gloom, we should remember that Poll was only given that game (Australia vs Croatia) - acknowledged as the toughest group game to officiate, by a mile - because he was considered capable.

Indeed, a more satisfactory performance would have put Graham in Poll Position (duh!) for ref’ing the final.

But there are two many mistakes at the moment. Maybe its new season rustiness, maybe its the growing cult of the referee, maybe its just a comedy coincidence. Whatever the reason, it needs to change, and it needs to change very soon.

Until then, high on the cards market may be the play (although historically this has lost more than its gained).

Over in Fantasy Football Land, a better display from my boys saw me amass 56 points this weekend (would have been 60 but for Styles’ ineptitude costing me a clean sheet!).

However, for all of my good score here, I’m currently lounging outside of the UEFA Cup spots in 9th. Runaway early leader is Paddy Meagher’s Kicking Kings, whose team has amassed him 149 points and ranks him in the 5,000s out of 1,196,265 teams overall. A very fine start, Mr Meagher, but are you Wigan in disguise? ;)

Heading the chasers at the moment is ‘thin air’, Paddy being 18 points clear of the next best unit, Irvin Lim’s SmokinTree&Strokin3s (which I presume is a reference to golf, somehow?). Its then a further ten back to Darren Smith, with seven more teams within a further ten points.

A special mention for Danny Edwards’ team, who are currently the strongest in the league (i.e. they prop up everyone else!). Poor Danny has gone for Manchester United players, and has also been unlucky with a few injuries. I’m sure your boys will come good soon.

Back later with a review of Racing Members Club, and the full tale of the tape on that laying service.

Matt

Monday Musing: If You Bet In Running, One Word.. Don't!

Monday, June 4th, 2007

Welcome back to work, dear reader. For it is Monday again. To mark this most inauspicious and sobering of days, I thought I’d introduce a new ‘occasional’ post entitled, the Monday Musing.

This will normally be about something to avoid in the wonderful worlds of racing, football and betting, but I reserve the right to wander off topic from time to time, for no better reason than to vent my spleen about something which may be bugging me at the moment when digit touches keyboard.

To start things off on the right note, I will offer up a racing related Monday Musing.

It can be summed up as, “If you bet in-running on horse racing, you are almost certain to lose”.

Let me explain…

I have a good friend (and gym partner) who for some time now has been trading on betfair. But his trading style differs from the average arbritrage player (for those who don’t know, arbitrage is about backing a horse at a bigger price then laying it at shorter odds to guarantee a profit if it wins, and no down side if it doesn’t).

Sure my nameless pal engages in arb’s for bread and butter. But his jam comes from somewhere else.

Did you know that there is anything from 1.5 seconds and five seconds time lag between the live racing and ‘live’ racing pictures on the tv? (This is much more pronounced on the satellite channels, so if you typically watch only BBC / C4 racing, then you are less likely to be susceptible).

The delay between reality and the virtual reality of the TV pictures is enough for big stacks of cash to be won or lost.

Let me give you an example: the favourite at Uttoxeter is clear approaching the last, and there is £3000 to be layed at 1.07 on betfair. The favourite makes his first blunder all the way round the track, and comes down.

My friend, who works with a colleague at the track, lays the full £3000 with no liability. The horse is on the floor and cannot win. He knew about the stricken jolly a good three seconds before the unwitting ‘money buyer’ with a big burning hole in his pocket, who was lounging at home on his (soon to be repossessed) couch.

Another example is photo finishes. When the result is called on course, the savvy traders can back the horse that wins or lay the runner up, certain that they can’t be beaten.

There are two exceptions to this case however. First, judges sometimes mistakenly call the wrong horse in the photo (especially if their name is Jane ‘Inept’ Stickles). Secondly, and more importantly, Betfair now send a man to the track to suspend betting as soon as he hears, “And here is the result of the photograph”.

The lesson here is clear and stark: unless you’re working in partnership with someone at the track, you are very likely to be donating your money to very shrewd traders if you bet in running.

You have been warned…

A footnote on the Derby. Great to see Frankie finally win, blah blah blah. Actually I don’t much care about big name jocks winning big races. I’d have been happier if Frannie Norton or Royston (’The Boyston’) Ffffffffrench had won.

Nevertheless, I like Frankie and you have to go a long way to find a jockey riding better for the last couple of seasons.

Rergarding the horse, Authorized, well I questioned his ability to win the race, based on the merit of his trial which proved nothing. As it turned out, we’ve rarely seen a more - forgive me - authoritative display. I’m not at all certain about the quality of the nags in behind, but the time was fast (4.5 seconds, or 22 lengths (!) quicker than the class 2 handicap that followed over the same trip).

Authorized looks well clear of his peers and may give the older generation something to think about in the big all age middle distance contests later in the season.

Which leads me to a quick final moan (for today at least): why is it that, by the 2nd day of June, barely two months into the turf flat season, we have already had four of the five Classics, with only the much maligned and lampooned (unfairly, in my opinion) St Leger to come?

Surely the Guineas races should be run at Royal Ascot, and the Derby and Oaks at somewhere like Glorious Goodwood or York. That would properly reflect a three year old animal maturing into his races, and give punters a fighting chance of finding the winner based on form (though of course Authorized was the form pick in the Derby).

I know this breaks from tradition etc, and even more so, I know it will NEVER happen. But am I the only one who thinks that there’s a degree of preposterosity (made up word) about the main Classics being done and dusted before many of the best horses who will run this season are even out doing light canters?

Discuss…!

Pip pip!
Matt