Wow! What an amazing sporting weekend, dear reader.
Even my seasonal sickness subsided in awe of the televisual treats served up over the last two days.
For me the highlights were the Tour (of course), where Vino first proved he was superhuman by slamming the entire field in the time trial, and then proved he was all too human by self-combusting in the Pyrenees. As predicted in my preview, he had a rush of blood on Saturday and didn’t save enough for the following days. His race is now run. (My stage tips Cancellara and Kloden both fell in the time trial, Canc twice!)
The first Pyrenean stage yesterday found out many more than just Vinokourov though. Indeed, by the end of the stage, the race was (and is) now down to three riders realistically. They are the impressive Dane Michael Rasmussen, Spanish wonderkid Alberto Contador, and gritty Aussie Cadel Evans.
I’ve backed Contador and Evans to win, and Evans for top 3 and top 6 finishes. At the moment, those bets look ok (I also backed Iban Mayo to win - ahem), but I’m worried about the continued impressive form shown by Rasmussen.
Today will be another real test for the protagonists, and I expect Contador to take time off Rasmussen. He looked really fresh when winning yesterday, and he can explode away up a mountain like few others. The question is how much time he can steal - he won’t be able to go too early, so it will again be fascinating to watch.
For Evans, he just needs to hang in there for as long as possible, knowing that he can get at least some time back in the time trial on Saturday but - to be honest - I’ll be happy to see him finish on the podium.
Elsewhere, the Open served up a treat to finish, as my man Sergio lost his putting touch and choked away his chance of a Major. I’d traded out to lock in some money (something I usually do these days, and something I recommend everyone does - its better to have some cash than be greedy and risk losing the lot, as Sergio and a million before him have proved).
Garcia played ok yesterday, and probably didn’t deserve his over par score. Harrington was superb, and you could see what it meant to him. He said after the event that if he’d lost (having found water TWICE on the last hole), he might never have played again. I believe him too.
Great guy, and a great player, and - finally - a European winner. Hats off!
In the GP at Nurburgring, Lewis Hamilton could only manage 9th after his nasty smash in qualifying. Partial relief came for him in the fact that Alonso, and not Raikkonen (who was on a hat-trick), won the race. Indeed, the Finn failed to finnish (geddit?!). Alonso is now Hamilton’s closest rival.
The title looks very interesting now, with just 11 points between the top three. Personally, I think Hamilton will not win, but should still be feted for an amazing debut season. His future is golden, and the experience of crashing on Saturday will surely serve him well in the future.
Cricket, and KP’s cracking innings (again) put England in the plum seat against the Indians. Our favourite South African really is a master with the bat and even I like to watch him play - not many cricketers can lay claim to that! (Of course, he’s a fine Hampshire man these days too, my adopted county on the basis that Dorset are about the worst Minor Counties side imaginable).
All of the above was a veritable cornucopia of sporting spectacles. The horse racing was another damp squib, with the pick of it rained off. The exception was an incredible little filly called Turbo Linn.
I’ve laid her in her last two races now, and she’s cocked a snook in my direction on both occasions. She’s quick, and she’s on the upgrade. Having started life running in bumpers around the gaffs, she has improved a ton this season, and who knows how good she is? A tilt at the Irish St Leger is mooted next, and I’ll think twice before laying her a third time…!
Today, they race at Beverley again, and the soft ground may lead to some of the runners tacking over near side again. There seems to be a strip of ground closest to the stands rail that more than justifies the excursion over there, in that its a good bit faster than the rest of the track.
I’ll be keeping an eye out for Melalchrist tonight. He’s drawn 1 of 10, and I just wonder whether his jockey, Neil Callan, will veer left from the stalls, and try to make a solo sprint for the cash. (Knowing jockeys, who are usually reluctant to venture away from the crowd, I suspect not).
I’d be very interested to hear from any regular Beverley racegoers, who may have an opinion on the draw and - particularly - the merit of going stands side on soft ground.
My system has thrown up a plethora of horses to lay today, and you can see these - and indeed its historical performance since I started tracking it - here:
After a corrective few days, I’m expecting the upward trend to resume this week, and I’ll be posting the selections here for your edification.
Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse’s soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.
Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.
Maybe I’ll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I’ll fight my early week reticence on this occasion.
Keep your powder (mostly) dry!
Matt
