Welcome to Friday, dear reader, everybody’s favourite day of the week.

For yours truly, after the joys of Wednesday came Black Thursday. Now, I am pleased to report that having paid (literally) too many times for indiscipline, I am usually a level-headed punter.
I try to take the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune on the chin, whether it goes my way or not.

But not yesterday. Yesterday I chased my cash. I’m still running, but my cash is out of sight.

I had one of those terrible days when you have the Sadim Touch (thats the Midas Touch in reverse). Everything I backed was either brown or shaped like a pear.

I got beaten short heads for the win; I got beaten short heads for the place; I got things totally wrong; I laid winning favourites; I backed losing favourites.

Have you ever had a day like that?

Well, I live to fight another day. But, my lesson learned (for the umpteenth time), I’ll not be rushing in with the boots on anything today.

Saying that, there are a couple I fancy. Here is a whistlestop tour of the York card as I see it…

1.45 2yo fillies race is akin to a teenage girls’ party, so no strong fancy. Form pick is probably Tom Stack’s Shivering, but there are several that will improve for their debuts. If I was betting here, which I’m not, I’d be interested in Dubai Princess and Tia Mia.

2.15 A classic inside draw race historically, with six winners since 1999 being drawn in the lowest four stalls. I really like Bauer but he’s in the carpark here and will likely need the run (as Filthy Luca Cumani’s often do), so he’s a place lay. I’d take a chance here with three against the field: Mutawaffer, Kilimandscharo, and Kyoto Summit.

2.45 A cracking race for the Yorkshire Cup, and one of the stalwart stayers lines up for the prize. Sergeant Cecil is the beastie, and I’ve reproduced this picture from the Racing Post at the top, because I think its brilliant. Its also a breach of copyright, so I’ll take it down in a day or two and hope I don’t get sued. But I love it! Hope you enjoy it too.

For all that, I don’t think the Sergeant will do more than plod (plod, geddit?!) on for a place. My idea of the winner is Munsef. John Dunlop is a master trainer of stayers, and loves to win at York. He won this race with Millenary in 2004, and five year olds have a good record.

I find it very hard to see this one out of the frame, so 11/2 (Lads / Hills) is tempting, even for a man swearing punting abstinence today. He’s a confident selection.

3.15 More young ladies, this time 3yo’s. After Anna Pavlova made a meringue-utang out of me yesterday (sorry, I’m really sorry, my joke writer’s quit on me!), I will swerve this race too. (I like betting fillies about as much as I like betting amateur riders - did you see that buffoonery masquerading as horsemanship at Folkestone last night?!)

Token selection is Promising Lead, but the Pavlova should tell you all you need to know about the perils of betting odds on in fillies races…

3.50 Some lightly raced sorts here, and some interesting ones at the bottom of the handicap. I’m interesting in how All You Need and Sea Rover run, but for the selection I’ll row in with in form Tombi. Howard Johnson’s got some ambitious plans for this progressive young man (followed up a 7th place finish - out of 24 - in the Redcar 2yo Trophy with a facile 4L win on debut this term), and he’ll need to show his hind quarters to most, if not all, of these if he’s to justify the entries.

4.25 The fact that Adrian Nicholls has chosen to ride Buachaill Dona out of Dandy’s three runners speaks well of the horse’s readiness for this seasonal introduction. In a very trappy race, that’s enough for me. There could well be less than two lengths between half a dozen of these at the business end, so I’d advise small stakes (if any).

5.00 Fong’s Gazelle is a filly in form, and foiled a TFS runner at Bath on her penultimate start. She won by 4L last time over a quarter mile shorter, but she was certainly not stopping. Mark Johnston is a master at progressing horses in handicaps, and she must go close. But the donation of weight all round may be a tough ask, and - though I’d definitely recommend a saver on her - I think there is better value elsewhere. Two horses right at the other end of the handicap (one possibly badly drawn) catch my eye: Its Moon and Force Group.

Both have had the cobwebs blown off with at least a run this season, and both come here in form having finished runner up last time.

Note also Sir Mark Prescott’s runner (Serpentaria), though I’d have expected to see money for her if she was fancied. Sir Mark ANYWHERE in handicaps is a profitable maxim, so irrespective of how this filly runs, follow the cigar chomping serial bachelor all season in handicap company.

I must quickly also mention Eglevski, trained by John Dunlop. He’s fit and ready for today. The only (significant) question is whether he’s quite good enough.

Moving on, and Bristol Rovers landed the 10 point nap, though not in quite the manner expected. I predicted that it would be a low scoring game, perhaps even 0-0. The first goal went in on 2 minutes (and what a goal!), and - by the end - Rovers had helped themselves to five of the eight scores.

Small consolation on the night for me was that I only bet under 2.5 goals, rather than selling total goals! Also, I’m out on my bet now as well.

What I mean by that, is if you backed Rovers at 11/4 (3.75) or more, you can now play bookmaker by laying them on betfair at around 11/10 (2.1). If you lay them for the same amount as your initial stake, you’ll have a free bet at around 13/8. Which is nice.

MK take on Shrews tonight in the other League 2 game, and I can’t imagine it will be nearly so tepid as the first leg. I’m expecting all those absent cards from the first game to manifest themselves here. But, again, as I am still smarting from yesterday, I’ll be drinking beer rather than watching for cardage yardage.

I won’t be doing a Cup Final preview, but I do fully expect Manchester United to win (sorry Chelski fans), and I think the 7/4 in 90 minutes is VERY tempting. If I can stay out of trouble today, the boots might be back on again tomorrow…

Good luck to you, Happy Friday, and enjoy the Weekend!

Matt

Winners, dear reader, that’s what we’re after. We’re not so fussed for the Fancy Dan editorial that surrounds it (though we don’t mind it), but give us the winners…

Alas, I can only partially sate your desire for winners without words. You see, the trade on this little ethereal pitch of mine is that I put forward what are hopefully enlightened thoughts, breeding enlightened selections, and in return I get to bluster and pontificate to my heart’s content. Well, perhaps not to my heart’s content, but at least a fair bit. Deal? I hope so…

If you’re still there, lets proceed - non-stop - to the sunny side of the (punting) street… (with apologies to the late, great Mr Sinatra).

Yesterday started badly, but got better and then better again. I laid Emirates Skyline for a place for a decent sum in the opener, only to see the horse cruise into a favoured rail position (from a carpark draw), travel like a Group horse throughout, and win well. He is clearly a better sort than these, and is also indicative that Godolphin are back in business. Look out for everything the boys in blue run in the next month or so.

My each way selections in the race are still running, though Spell Casting showed a modicum of promise. Blue Spinnaker has put together a hat-trick of stinkers now, and is on the dodge list.

Second race, and Shmookh, the nap of the day, did it nicely. He was also a TrainerFlatStats qualifier (one of two on the day), and landed some nice bets at 4/1. This made for a winning day for me, irrespective of what followed.

Next up was the Musidora, Oaks trial race. Sir Henry’s flying filly did enough, winning despite the nature of the race and not because of it. The time was pedestrian (10 lengths slower than the handicap), and the proximity of the rag Bobansheil to the protagonists until the furlong pole suggests that one shouldn’t interpret this race literally. That said, Passage Of Time cruised to the front, dossed, then picked up again when challenged.

On the basis of the evidence to date, she wins the Oaks. (Unless AP O’Brien has any ammo up his sleeve..) Personally, I’ll hold off backing her until the day, as at 5/2 she’s unlikely to be much shorter, and there have been a few nagging issuettes with her preparation. When she’s confirmed as fit and well, and running on the day, I’ll be stepping up with a hefty wager I suspect.

Next up was a Grand Old renewal of the Duke Of York Stakes (geddit?!), with some very interesting contenders, fronted by Amadeus Wolf, Al Qasi and Soldier’s Tale. The first named won, and won well. Al Qasi was beaten just over two and a half lengths back in sixth, a promising seasonal debut.

But the one to take out of the race for me, was definitely Soldier’s Tale. Having his first run since July 2005, he looked fit. But lack of race sharpness saw him outpaced early, before munching up the turf in the latter part of the race to finish a never nearer third (beaten two lengths). He clearly retains the ability, and is a bigger stronger animal now than when last seen.

Soldier’s Tale favours soft ground and, wherever he gets those underhoof conditions, don’t look elsewhere for the winner. The Prix de l’Abbaye, though a 5f contest, might be worth chancing in due course, but there’ll be other opportunities between now and then over a sodden six.

Onwards and downwards, as it was after the previous two classy contests, and York without the Easterby’s is like crumble without custard, Fred without Ginger and, er, tips without verbiage…

So it was that Tim Easterby’s Tcherina won the handicap at 11/2, rewarding my e/w tickle. Better news still was that Forroger - who I’d laid at a measly 1.85 for a place - was never able to get competitive from a poor draw. Although Emirates overcame his draw in the opener, its definitely worth favouring low drawn horses on the round course here.

The 2yo race was impossible, and the only word here goes to unlucky punters who backed Just Sort It. Sent off at 4/1, he’d got upset in the gate and his head had come out underneath the front of the stall. Video evidence showed one of the stalls handlers actually kick him in the head! He should never have run, and you were mugged if you backed this one.

Finally, and if winners at 4/1, 11/2, 5/6 and an odds on winning lay were not enough, I managed to pick out Spice Route and Woodcraft in the ‘nightcap’, the former winning at 6/1 (easily) and the latter finishing a decent 4th (out of the e/w places alas) at 10/1.

If further evidence of the draw was needed (it wasn’t!!!), the first seven home out of 14 runners were drawn:
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 7

The well backed 5/1 favourite and TFS qualifier, Mutadarrej, had no chance from the 11 box and finished… 11th.

To today, and I’ve already exhausted my rambling rations in yesterday’s preview. I have to concede to not having as much confidence around today’s card. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts:

1.45 Tournedos (e/w) is with the right yard now (Dandy Nicholls) and has been better class than most of these. He’s drawn up the middle (a positive), has Richard Hughes in the plate, and could run a nice race.

Kay Two is also in fine form.

2.15 I’m not very good at understanding women (I’m a man after all!), but I do like desserts. For these reasons, I will pass up the opportunity to bet Anna Pavlova. She has the best form, loves the ground and will likely win. Just not with my cash. Echelon is the obvious danger.

2.45 Authorized heads the betting for what looks like being a Donkey Derby at Epsom this year, at least on the evidence to date. He has his seasonal debut in today’s Dante, but I’ll take a chance with Sir Michael Stoute’s Adagio. Although not obviously bred for this trip, his running in the 2000 Guineas was too bad to be true, and that race form is perceived to be rock solid by savvier judges than me. Lacking nothing in fitness, that may just give him the edge on Authorized.

As far as Epsom goes, it really doesn’t look a strong race, and a taking performance from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt would make him a pretty warm jolly for 2nd June. Anything else, and we’re likely to be seeing 5/1 the field for the Blue Riband.

3.15 Wise Dennis won the big race last Saturday, and is in excellent form. However, that race may have left a mark and he is drawn wide, so I reckon he’s a good place lay. Against him for win or each way purposes, I’ll side with Zero Tolerance.

He’s got two duck eggs against his name for the season, but loves it here, loves it soft, has a low draw, and Jamie Spencer in the plate. (I’ve said some very unkind things about Spencer over the years, especially for his riding in Breeders’ Cups, but currently he is riding as well as anyone around, so credit where it’s due).

3.50 No bet race for me. However, the most appropriately named is Mission Impossible, who also has the benefit of a run (so important in early season juvenile races), and is drawn near enough to the centre. Not for my cash, but he should give you a run in a very tough race to quantify.

4.25 Now here’s a funny thing. Four out of the last seven winners of this two and a quarter mile race were drawn in the highest fifth of the stalls. Possibly coincidence on the basis of such a flimsy sample size, but I’ll use that to inform my (tentative) selection here. Great As Gold, Dehdaah and At The Money look interesting, and I’d suggest a little on each. They are all drawn high, have all won over a distance, and have all won on softer than good.

5.00 Another wide open race, but there’s no way I’m going to desert Sir Henry. He runs the in form Power Of Future. Dangers abound and possibly most worrying is Gala Evening.

Quick word on the football, and hallelujah, if there wasn’t a home win last night for West Brom, ensuring their trip to Wembley where they’ll face Derby County. Might as well have played it at Villa Par
k if you ask me!

Tonight sees my great white hope Bristol Rovers take on Lincoln City. In what I hope will be an attritional game, I’ll not be betting. I’m already on Rovers to win the League Two playoff, and am looking for a 0-0 score tonight. That said, if the West Country boys can score one, it will make life very difficult for the Imps. All to play for.

Good luck today - more tomorrow.

Matt

Welcome back dear reader, for another jaunt around the sporting vista.

The main action this week centres on football and horse racing, with cricket pulling off its Springtime raincoat for the (rain delayed, I suspect) start of the Test series.

I have to concede that I’m not much of a cricket fan, so I won’t attempt to offer any advice there. It seems to me though that the England team should have the Timeform Squiggle against their name and, as such, any wager is probably riskier than the odds might suggest. Of course I sincerely hope they win, and entertain the fans along the way, but its just not a game for me. (Unless we’re spanking the Aussies, in which case I’m a fan of any competitive medium available!)

Enough already. To the horses, and with haste…

This week sees the three day meeting on the Knavesmire in York. I went once: to see Pasternak win the Magnet Cup. Beautiful town, brilliant course, great fun. And I was hoping to go again today, to watch Rapid City win the last race. But alas, he has an injury and my viewing of the day’s racing is confined to a comfy sofa here at Hackney Mansions (right next to Hackney Marshes, as it happens!).

Today’s big race is the Musidora Stakes, a recognised Oaks trial. The last filly to win this before going on to Epsom glory was Henry Cecil’s Reams Of Verse, back in 1997.

Sir Henry (a travesty that the knighthood prefix is not official, in this scribe’s opinion) is represented today with the exciting filly, Passage Of Time, and - as James Willoughby recounts in his excellent piece in today’s Racing Post - it would truly be an appropriately named winner for Cecil. This season he seems to have recaptured the zest which made him champion trainer and punters’ pal for more than two decades.

Perhaps released finally from the personal problems, which have sadly been played out so publicly. First there was the divorce from Julie, then the besotted affair with the stable lass (later his wife, Natalie) which breached class barriers. Ultimately, that ended in disaster when she was caught in the showers with an unnamed paramour (alleged to be a very high profile jockey, who remains my favourite despite not riding currently… you do the math!).

As if all that wasn’t enough, H R A Smith (no doubt) was caught with a call girl in a Brighton hotel at the same time.

Natalie and Henry’s nanny was quoted at the time as saying: “Natalie was given everything by Henry. She had money, power, a fantastic house and a beautiful son.

“But I knew their marriage was not going to last. She has such a temper and is so selfish the split was inevitable.

“I just wish there was something I could have done to help, for Henry and Jake’s [their son] sake. He is a loyal man, even today he still loves Natalie and cannot turn off his feelings for her like a tap.

“Henry is devastated that another marriage has failed and that he now faces the prospect of losing his son.”

And then, in 2000, Henry’s twin brother David, died of pancreatic cancer after a painful and protracted struggle.

Its hard not to feel for a man who has had so much brown stuff hit his personal fan. And so it is that I hope and prey that he has a filly to go to war with once more: first around the Knavesmire, and then on the rollercoaster undulations at Epsom.

The above of course is all predicated on sentiment, and I hope you will forgive me my little self-indulgence for one of the true racing greats - and true gentlemen to boot - of our era.

On a more factual note, Passage Of Time clearly has the best form in the race. In beating colts in the Group 1 Grand Criterium on her last two year old start, she set a very high benchmark for the fillies to aim at this season.

However, the vibes around the young lady are not great. First, she had a small abscess on her epiglottis, and now she is rumoured to be coming into season. Having traded as low as 1/2 on betfair, she is around the 8/11 mark currently and on the skid. I certainly won’t be backing her today, but I will be cheering her - and Henry - for all I’m worth.

Against her is another smart young thing in Shorthand. She is a full sister to last year’s winner Short Skirt, and is trained by the only other trainer to challenge Cecil’s grip on this race, Sir Michael Stoute. On form, its a two horse race and, with the complete no-hoper Bobansheil excluded from the realistic line up, there are only four runners numerically.

Shorthand may win today, but I’d certainly want to be on Passage of Time to roll back the years come the first Friday in June. That would - as Willoughby wrote - leave a lump in all our throats.

Elsewhere on the card, there are some highly competitive looking handicaps. One thing to bear in mind at York in big field races over a mile and further, is that there is a strong low draw bias. The reason is that there are a couple of turns, the final one into the straight being quite marked. If you’re trapped out wide here, expect to concede eight to ten lengths.

On the straight course, middle draws are favoured often.

So, with that in mind, here are my fancies for the handicaps today:

1.45 Blue Spinnaker (ew) / Spell Casting (ew) / lay Emirates Skyline for a place (bad draw)
2.15 Shmookh (nap)
2.45 Passage of Time (though no bet)
3.15 Fayr Jag (ew) / Quito (ew)
3.50 Tcherina (ew) / lay Forroger for a place (bad draw)
4.25 No idea!!!!
5.00 Spice Route (ew) / Woodcraft (ew)

Lots more football playoff action this week, and the away win rule seems to be getting stronger. To remind you, last year, there was only one home win from the 12 semi-final ties. So far this season (including last night’s away win for Southampton in 90 minutes), there has been only one home win from seven matches.

There might just be some value to be had here.

There is also the small matter of the Uefa Cup Final tonight in Glasgow, between Espanyol and Sevilla. Having vanquished Spurs with a degree of panache (though my mostly Tottenham-supporting mates wouldn’t agree!), I fancy Sevilla to finish the job tonight.

Its an all Spanish affair and interestingly I didn’t hear Michel Platini (head of UEFA: great footballer, lousy politician / administrator) making any of the “I’m glad its not an all English affair” type noises he did when Milan beat Man Utd. He’s already marked himself down in my card. I just don’t understand how so many imbeciles are allowed to run our beautiful game. Johannsson, Blatter, and now Platini: a triumvirate of invertebrates! (That’s a trio of spineless creatures, in case you were wondering!)

Good luck as ever if you’re playing at York today, and let’s hear it for Sir Henry!!!

Matt

Hello again dear reader, and I hope the weekend has recharged your batteries (and perhaps your bank balance as well).

It was a case of ‘close but no banana’ for the Victoria Cup preview yesterday. You may remember that I’d narrowed it down to just six of the 29 runners, and had plumped for King Of Argos to win. Well, five of the first seven home - including 14/1 winner Beaver Patrol - were in the nominated sextet. These horses were 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th. The nag conspicuous by his absence? Why, King Of Argos of course.

As this was the first leg of my Saturday Lucky 15, I was somewhat disappointed. However, better news was to follow for yours truly. The other three nominees on my (virtual betfred.com) ticket were Firenze, Princelet and TrainerFlatStats only runner of the day, Sky More.

They all won, and they all won easily, at odds of 7/2 (incredible price - I took 2/1!), 5/1 (I took 4/1!) and 2/1 (I didn’t take 15/8 - phew!).

Elsewhere, and its been a busy weekend of football. First of all, commiserations to Sheffield United fans, whose team were mightily unlucky to be relegated today. In what turned into an absolute slog, the man Heskey was “immense” (to quote Sky commentator, Alan Smith) for Wigan.

In the playoffs, followers of this column are sitting pretty right now. I vouched for more than two goals at 5/4 in the West Brom - Wolves game (result 3-2), and I confidently predicted wins for both Bristol Rovers and Blackpool.

Rovers were a bit lucky in truth, and looked nothing like their normal assured selves defensively against a dangerous Lincoln unit. They’ll have to pull their socks up for the second leg if they’re to progress, but I still expect them to get a result at Sincil Bank and advance to Wembley. A small(ish) wager on Ravers to win the tie was cashed at a very generous 6/5.

In the tie between Blackpool and Oldham, where I’m on record as saying I think Blackpool will win both legs, they have done the hard part today by getting the result by the odd goal in three at Boundary Park.

After a tepid first half, the Tangerinemen smashed Oldham to pieces in the seconda tempo. How they only won 2-1 (and the one was a dubious penalty), I don’t know. Well, actually I do. Kiegan Parker missed - by my count - six one on ones or otherwise presentable chances. This tie could have been massively out of sight, and I remain confident that Blackpool will take their winning run to a very impressive nine matches in midweek and head for Wembley with their tails up.

They were trading at just over 7/4 on betfair for the game today and I availed myself, again only for small money, as I’ve backed them and Rovers already to win their respective playoffs.

With just the (predicted) bloodbath between Shrewsbury and MK Dons at Gay Meadow tomorrow night before all ties are at the halfway point, its interesting to note that four of the five games played this season to date have ended in away wins (Bristol Rovers the notable exception).

Even more interesting is that of the twelve playoff semi-final ties played last season, there was only one home win. I have no idea why this is, and it could just be (a mighty big) coincidence, but suffice it to say that I won’t be steaming into any supposed home bankers this week.

For followers of this column’s advice, my suggestion is to sit tight on Rovers and ‘pool, with every chance of getting both sides to the final. Those of a slightly more prudent disposition can trade out now on either team for a bet to nothing, to win about 1.25 stake units.

Oh, and before I close, a quick reminder that I reckon there’ll be one or two cards issued tomorrow night, so a small buy on the bookings index may reward the hardier footballing (and punting) souls.

And finally, as Sir Trevor MacDonald used to smirkingly say on the ITN News at Ten, just time to tell you that I’m learning some new web design skills currently (if you’ve seen my sites, you’ll know I need to!), and my first attempt can be seen at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk, which is of course the home page where this blog resides. Do feel free to check it out and let me know what you think. Please don’t be too harsh…

More soon… may your next bet be a winner.

Matt

Quick line on the big handicap at Ascot today. There are some fairly positive trends in the race, which is encouraging, given that its 29 runners down the straight seven furlongs on good to soft.

Excluding 2005, when the race was run at Lingfield, and 2001 and 1998, when it was abandoned, lets look at the data for the other seven years. Obviously, this is not a great sample size, but nonetheless I think there are some fairly solid trends here.

Weight: only one winner carried less than 8-09, and only one winner carried more than 9-01, so there is a fairly tight weight bracket to concern ourselves with. This leaves us with horse numbers 6 to 15.

Draw: only one winner drawn in single figures, with majority drawn in the middle. However, on the two runnings on good to soft, the winners were drawn 16 and 22, so middle to high is where its at. This excludes Skhilling Spirit and Prince Of Thebes.

Odds: No real clues here, though the favourite has won and four out of seven winners have been 10/1 or shorter, including the last two at Ascot (and last three in total).

Age: All of the last eight winners have been aged 4, 5 or 6. This discounts Pentecost and One More Round.

All of which means we are left with the following shortlist:

Partners In Jazz (last year’s winner), Wise Dennis, Beaver Patrol, King Of Argos, Ordnance Row, and Fullandby.

To whittle down this likely sextet, lets revert to the age stats again. Five of the last nine winners of the race were four year olds (from a relatively few number of runners) and, while I fear the five year olds, I’m going to put my head on the block with King Of Argos.

Quick line on the big handicap at Ascot today. There are some fairly positive trends in the race, which is encouraging, given that its 29 runners down the straight seven furlongs on good to soft.

I think Ordnance Row, the other qualifying 4yo, is drawn out of it in stall 11.

So there it is, after all that I make the jolly old favourite the most likely winner. Despite all that, he’s still freely trading at 8/1, comes into the race in fine form, has the extremely capable assistance of Jamie Spencer in the plate, and is trained by the improving Ed Dunlop.

There is a slight doubt about the ground (never raced on softer than good), but he’s performed well in finishing second to one of the best All Weather horses around in Cusoon on the sand at Wolverhampton, so I’d not be too concerned about this.

My money will be on Spencer this afternoon - lets hope for a bold show.

Other matters, and desperate news from Exning. Rapid City has unfortunately suffered a hairline fracture to one of his tibias, and will need at least four weeks box rest. Not only does this mean I won’t have a nice day at York next week (he was due to run on Wednesday), but also he is unlikely to be fit for one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot.

Ho hum, that’s a (small part-) owner’s life…

Draw at Chester did us no favours in the sprints this week alas. Middle draws seemed to dominate, and its possible that the rain had just got into the track on the inside making it slightly deeper.

However, another draw bias to be well aware of, and incredibly well exemplified this week, is the high draw bias at Beverley. In the 5f sprint on Thursday won by Wanchai Lad, the first six home were drawn 14, 15, 3, 11, 13, 12, out of thirteen runners (two non-runners).

The horse who was drawn 3 that day was Aegean Dancer, and he - in my view - is essentially a winner without a penalty. He was on a hat-trick going into the race, and continues in very good heart. Definitely one to be on next time.

Tough luck on Yeovil last night, conceding two penalties, but the tie may not be quite over yet. They have nothing to lose now at the City Ground, and definitely have players capable of causing Forest problems. That said, Forest are rightly strong favourites to progress now.

Enjoy your weekend punting!

Matt

Well it seems to be the time of year when every man and his dog is sharing the ten horses they’re most looking forward to seeing this season. And, in the spirit of this, I thought I’d share mine with you.

However, if you’re expecting the usual ten Classic contenders, you’re in for a surprise…

Now this list has a chance to go one of two ways: I suspect that there will be no middle ground with this. These horses all have something to prove, and pretty much none of them will make it to the top of their sector.

But, from a betting perspective, does that matter? The reason for picking these ten is that I think they may win once or twice at nice prices. Sure, they will lose more often than they win, but this is my ‘Value Ten To Follow’.

So, with that in mind, here we go:

1. Pieter Brueghel (Tr: D Nicholls; 8yo)

At eight years old, this gelding couldn’t exactly be classified as unexposed, and I make no apology for that. He was rated as high as 100 for Paul Cole as a 3yo, and has consistently given his running year in, year out since.

The handicapper is just showing signs of relenting now, and I can see Pieter Brueghel returning to the winners’ enclosure over a sprint trip (5 or 6 furlongs) this season.

This horse loves fast ground and has won round Chester’s very tight ‘bullring’ circuit twice off marks in the 90’s. Both those wins were when trained by Paul Cole, but Dandy Nicholls loves to win races at the Roodeye as well, so pay special attention should this horse turn up there this term.

2. Crossing The Line (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo)

Having had the obligatory three runs in maiden company, and recording the form figures for a major international poker company in so doing (888), this gelding will be seen to much better effect over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

He is owned by shrewd connections (Prescott trains and Wally Sturt owns), and they have had many others run up sequences with similar profiles.

Allotted a mark of just 64 for his next turf run, and having cost, 95,000 guineas as a yearling, there must be expectations of more to come.

Look for Crossing The Line over a mile plus.

3. Tonnante (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo)

Again we take the “Prescott-trained thrice raced in maidens” route with the filly, Tonnante.

She is out of Hernando, a marvellous middle distance horse who finished runner-up in the Arc amongst his many big race efforts. The dam’s side has stamina in abundance too, having – apparently – been a high class winner in Brazil.

In three maiden efforts to date, Tonnante has mid-pack twice over seven furlongs, and then fourth of five over a mile.

If I’m reading her right, she is crying out for at least a mile and a half, possibly further, and could be one of Prescott’s to run up a sequence.

4. Spirit Of The Mist (Tr: T J Pitt; 3yo)

I like this trainer, and his handling of Les Arcs last season was nothing short of expert, especially for one so new to the training ranks.

Pitt has assembled a useful looking squad for 2007, and I expect him to regularly be among the winners: definitely a trainer to keep on the right side of.

This colt ran green on debut, before winning nicely in a decent enough race second time out as a two year old last season. He then ran in the Goffs Million race in Ireland and finished last of 28 (albeit sent off only a 16/1 shot).

That run is easily forgiven and forgotten and, off a mark of 80, I expect this horse to show improvement as a three year old. The one concern I have is that the trainer may decide to campaign him at a higher level than handicaps, in which case he may be found out.

But, nonetheless, I think this one will win races in his grade and he readily makes the team.

5. Rapid City (Tr: Julia Feilden; 4yo)

Ok, so I probably do need to apologise for including this horse in my list, as I own a tenth of him! However, I think he takes his place on merit.

Having been bought cheaply from Criquette Head’s French stable, he has run six times over the winter, winning three and finishing second twice.

His run last Saturday was all wrong. Over a trip short of his best, and with pace setting tactics employed, I am convinced that we did not see the best of Rapid.

His trainer, Julia Feilden, has high hopes for him, and the plan ultimately is the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. He’ll need to win a race between now and then to have a chance of making the cut.

But he is a horse who definitely wants to hear his hooves rattle, and an end to end mile (which is like a mile and a quarter in a run of the mill race) will suit him down to the ground.

Rapid has not finished winning just yet!!

6. Monte Alto (Tr: Luca Cumani; 3yo)

Luca Cumani is one of the great modern trainers in my opinion. He has had his (all too human) failings, and been involved in a few scandals (he’s Italian, what do you expect?!), but ultimately this man rarely fails to deliver.

He has some very good looking prospects for 2007, and I nominate Monte Alto as one to be on the right side of.

In two runs to date, this horse has finished third both times in decent maiden company.

He’s bred for a mile, and was staying on over seven furlongs in his two runs to date. Given normal physical improvement from two to three, he may actually stay a little further.

He’s likely to have one more run in a maiden and, while I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him in that, it is in decent three year old handicaps that I think ‘Filthy’ Luca will be looking to get the money down.

7. Furmigadeligiusta (Tr: Luca Cumani; 3yo)

Three runs in maidens to date for this one, which is a ploy that Signor Cumani uses almost as effectively as Sir Mark Prescott.

Having been the ‘lantern rouge’ in his first two starts (i.e. last man home!), he made eye-catching progress on his third maiden start. I have a strong suspicion that his progress was actually a bit too eye-catching for the trainer, as the word may now be out.

This horse will very likely win races this year, and the good news is… you don’t have to be able to pronounce his name to bet him!!

8. Novellara (Tr: Henry Cecil; 4yo)

I may be indulging myself by including horses from the stables of my favourite trainers here, but isn’t that what Ten To Follow is about?!

Novellara is a slightly better class animal than my other selections, and I nominate her because I reckon she might just get Mr Cecil (where’s his knighthood for heaven’s sake?) back into the Group 1 winners.

I’m not privy to trainer plans, and this may be pie in the sky, but I reckon this mare could have chances if she runs in the Coronation Cup a
t Epsom.

Although she’s currently only Listed / Group 3 class, I reckon that given soft under hoof conditions, she will be competitive in the best mile and a half races, especially among her sex.

Cecil is a master of training fillies and mares, and – if this one hasn’t already been sent to the paddocks (her breeding is phenomenal and she already has black type) – I think she will win some nice races this season.

9. Bertoliver (Tr: Dean Ivory; 3yo)

Another man who might bang in a few decent priced winners this season, Dean Ivory looks to have a useful tool in Bertoliver.

This horse ran seven times as a juvenile, which might lead you to believe that he’s exposed. However, I suspect that there is improvement in him for a year of physical growth.

Last seen when runner up (the remainder well beaten off) in an average nursery, he had run extremely creditably the time before, when ‘winning’ the middle race in a hot Newmarket maiden (the field split into three groups across the track).

A well bred sprinting type, I reckon he’ll get competitive in some decent sprint handicaps this season. Pay special attention if/ when he runs at Windsor.

10. Worldly (Tr: Sylvester Kirk; 3yo)

This guy is going to be big! One of the real rising stars in the flat training ranks, make a note of anything this man runs anywhere. He is not afraid to take on the big boys (and win), as his haul of over half a million quid in prize money last season will testify.

The horse I nominate here is a slightly risky one (aren’t they all?!), as he burst a blood vessel on his final run last season. It can often be the case that horses who ‘burst’ become susceptible to it, so it may be that he becomes a regular bleeder.

However, I’m happy to include him with the caveat that, should he ‘burst’ again, he will be struck off my top ten.

So why am I including him? Good question! His previous two runs had resulted in a runner-up placing on debut, and a facile win (at odds of 1/4) second time up. In that final race where he bled, he was sent off the 7/2 joint favourite as one of the top weights in a decent looking Newmarket nursery.

If his bleeding problem has subsided, he looks set to take a hand in some good three year old handicaps this season at around a mile and a quarter.

So there it is – my ten plodders to follow. Probably no equine superstars in there (except perhaps Novellara), but quite possibly some good payoff’s to be had for those who keep the faith.

I’ll continue to report on the progress of this bunch and, if you have any comments, or your own dark horses to follow for the season, why not add them as a comment to this article.

I’ve no monopoly on content here, my racing friends!

Best Regards
Matt

www.trainerflatstats.com

At this time of year, there are a lot of races where the betting market is formed on opinions and reputations, rather than collateral form. I am primarily referring to two year old races here, as opposed to seasonal debutantes who may have improved / regressed since the previous season.

One element is more important than any other when betting 2yo’s: the benefit of previous experience. So many horses are having their first sight of a racetrack, their first feel of the whip, their first listen to the noise, and so on…

A simple analysis of this has identified a lucrative niche for betting 2yo’s on their second start early in the season (April to June).

As ever, I strip out the fillies and concentrate on colts and geldings (male horses). The other criteria are as follows:

- Didn’t win on their first start
- Second favourite in the betting

Just by applying these simple criteria, you’d have won 96 out of 315 bets since 1998, and returned a tidy 94.86 points profit. That’s around two grand for £20 stakes on a strike rate of over 30%.

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

1998 7 28 25.00 2.75 9.82 17.05
1999 8 29 27.59 8.83 30.45 22.08
2000 9 24 37.50 15.83 65.96 65.04
2001 10 33 30.30 9.83 29.79 34.84
2002 14 38 36.84 20.75 54.61 59.54
2003 9 38 23.68 -1.25 -3.29 4.66
2004 16 49 32.65 17.33 35.37 48.03
2005 11 39 28.21 7.58 19.44 28.84
2006 12 37 32.43 13.21 35.70 33.21
_____________________________ _______________________________

96 315 30.48 94.86 30.11 34.94

A quick review of yesterday’s action, and - as mentioned - I felt the prolific sand scorers were classic place lay opportunities in their respective races at Newcastle. Dichoh was sent off 10/3 favourite in the Spring Mile and finished 17th, beating just two home. Gentleman’s Deal fared slightly better. Sent off 7/2 favourite, he finished 15th of 20. Place layers never had a moment’s concern!

As a general rule, we see year in and year out, good horses from the sand made favourite for races they generally cannot win on the turf. Look out for these and oppose at will!

Quick word about Rapid City yesterday, who finished fourth. I was very disappointed for two reasons: firstly I felt that there was no way he should have been making the running if there was any pace in the race (he was taken on for the lead, so there was clearly pace!) Secondly, I felt - though I’ve yet to see a replay - that James Doyle dropped his hands and got caught for third place as well. The joys of being a minority shareholder in a racehorse!

Until next time…

Matt