How often does it happen, dear reader, that you say something is simple and the very next day it kicks you in the teeth?

Not for nothing is my favourite saying, “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”, and it pays to exercise additional diligence when your cups are system rules and your lips are equine beasties.

But not with FP, it seems. To date, there have been very few slips, and none of them have resulted in spillage… which is to say in layman’s terms that I slurped up my fourth point of the week today, from a possible four.

Today, I had to sweat a little more than the last couple of days, but not quite as much as on Sunday. When I say ’sweat’, and when I ask in the teasing title whether the forecast had begun to turn nasty, I am actually trying to inject a hint of drama and intrigue into a system review that has, to this point, been the investment equivalent of boiling water.

Now, in fairness, it should be pointed out that the nature of this type of methodology is that they are characterized by winning days, but one should not lose sight of the impact a losing day can have.

Matt Watson, the system author, sensibly recommends a decent sized bank (which varies according to the level you intend to trade at), and a losing day would wipe out the easy pickings banked thus far.

So, a modicum of balance attempted, I’ll report back again tomorrow on Day Five of the great water boiling road test!

Tomorrow is the second day of Goodwood’s early season meeting, and it will be interesting to see if the high draw bias over 1m1f maintains itself. Today’s 13 runner handicap was won by the 9/2 TrainerFlatStats runner, McConnell, who was drawn 10 of 13. The places were taken by horses drawn 8 and 11 (the latter a 50/1 shot), and the fourth home was drawn 12.

The 1m1f race tomorrow is a 14 runner maiden fillies event, which normally shouts ‘NO BET’ at me. But I can’t resist having the traps on my side, and I like Quirina to optimize her draw in the top stall (14 of 14). Dangers are likely to be Madame Hoi and Lush, but I’ll take John Gosden’s filly against this mob.

At Salisbury, it may pay to lean on the high side in the sprint races, so I’ll be having a very small interest in Vanadium in the lady amateur riders’ handicap (another race where I’d normally never wager in!).

Later on, Stamford Blue, who won here during a purple patch last season, and is well drawn for Ron Harris, could go well. He has actually won at the track three times; started his winning run at this time last season (here); and is back to a mark below his top winning handicap rating. Current form means a leap of faith is required, but given a fair few positives, he’s worth a small each way tickle.

If you prefer a more mundane (and more likely) winning wager tomorrow, you might prefer to check out the Favourites Phenomenon system…

Until next time…
Matt

p.s. Breaking News: TFS just had its second winner of the day at 11/4 (from 7/2), to complement McConnell at 9/2 (from 15/2). Although the guide is no longer available to purchase, you can subscribe for a very fair monthly fee, and you get 7 days free trial. Click here to take advantage of my generosity!

Remember World of Sport, dear reader? ITV’s lame attempt at competing with BBC’s far superior Saturday sports magazine programme had just two things going for it:

1. Dickie Davies, the presenter with the bizarre Cruella Deville silver streak in his coiffed bouffant
2. Bald fat men in leotards profusely sweating over each other in the working mens’ clubs of the North

And it was to this latter allusion that I was reminded over the last couple of days, with the familiar refrain of dear old Shirley Crabtree (or ‘Big Daddy’ to 70’s wrestling fans) ringing in my ears as I reached my profit target for the day.

“Easy! Easy! Easy!”

That’s how it’s been with Favourites Phenomenon (FP, if you will) for the last two days, as I’ve collected on my very first qualifying race to withdraw my desired unit profit.

In fact, my exposure - having been as high as £75.80 on Sunday - has yet to top a tenner in the two days since, and I’ve collected a facile three units ‘gravy’ without turning a hair.

I’ll continue to track FP’s progress throughout the week, and - in case you want to follow it yourself (ahead of time!) - you can pick up a copy here:

Elsewhere, and I noticed on Saturday that another of my alternative ten ran - and won - in the shape of the Henry Cecil trained Rattan. Sent off a warm 5/2 favourite, he sluiced up by five lengths and the assistant trainer admitted he wasn’t even fully wound up. Surely Royal Ascot beckons (Royal Hunt Cup would be my guess).

Less impressive, largely because he ran terribly, was Astrodome who is also one of the ten. He ran this evening, and think has just about finished. He was sent off 7/2 so is clearly expected to do better. Don’t write off just yet.

Record to date for the ten is: eleven runs, three wins, four places and four unplaced.

More on FP as the week progresses…

Matt

Systems, dear reader, are my favourite means of making money from my betting. The rationale behind this should be obvious: if something has proven to work in the past, then why shouldn’t it work in the future?

An equally obvious response to this is that some systems can be perceived as back fitted. That is, there are no logical reasons for the system rules, and therefore the creator was merely using historical info to come up with something with a positive number in the profit and loss column.

Occasionally, these ’systems’ can continue to make money because there may be ‘hidden’ logic, or reasons that are not at first obvious. But, generally, if a system doesn’t have logic to its ruleset, then it’s a piece of poo…

So, having pilloried a badly written system with false claims last week, I approach these two systems with a little more optimism.

Favourites Phenomenon (FP hereafter for, I hope, obvious reasons!) is the system we’ll look at this week.

FP is a backing system that relies on its staking plan as much as its rules. It’s what’s known as a ‘Stop at a Winner’ (or SAW) system, which means, erm, you stop after you’ve backed a winner. Now there’s nothing new about this staking strategy, but aligned with the right methodology or system, it can be a very powerful approach.

First up with the FP, it has a refreshingly candid and unhyperbolic sales page . A rarity still, but I think the future of systems sales pages.

FP does not promise to make you a million in your first month using it. But it does systematically raise and then dispel a majority of concerns you might have about using the system. (Incidentally, if you have a question that isn’t covered, the author encourages you to share it with him, and he will reply).

Moreover, it’s gotten excellent results over a sustained period of time. When you sign up, you can see the results for the last two and a half years, and the results for May are 15 points profit, using Level 3.

Profit for the month is less if you’d used Levels 1 or 2.

“Levels Matt? What are you talking about?”, I hear you ask. (At least, I thought I heard you ask…)

Sorry, I should have mentioned: in order to make this accessible to beginners and experienced punters alike, and to risk averse and venture capitalists (!) alike, there are three levels of approach.

Level 1 is for beginners or risk averse punters, and has the earliest ’stop loss’ point. Levels 2 and 3 are gradually more aggressive in their stop loss points.

The biggest profits are to be had with Level 3, but also the greatest exposure to a heavy loss day. These do happen, but are mercifully rare (roughly two or three a year).

FP has been on the market for around a month now, and it has already received very strong feedback from one of the more independent betting sites on the web, Secret Betting Club.

Furthermore, the system author (Matt Watson) has been in regular touch with me since before I started the blog, when I was a vendor of TrainerTrackStats way back in 2006. He has consistently demonstrated an insight into his racing, and is a shrewd guy.

He offers a full money back refund with no quibbles, which as you know, is a pre-condition for me reviewing any product. And, moreover, he is extremely approachable. So, if you’re not sure about anything (and I mean anything!), then simply drop Matt a line and he will come back to you with a reply.

[I know this because I've harrassed him a couple of times myself in the last fortnight!]

Anyway, the nature of the system is such that I cannot post the selections ahead of time, but I will post daily with an update. We are trying to win a point a day, and we stop as soon as that goal is achieved.

In order to win our point, we back horses under certain conditions. At a given point, if things have not gone in our favour, we wipe our metaphorical mouth, and wait for tomorrow.

FP comes complete with a calculator to work out whether you should be playing on a given day, and what your potential liability will be.

If you can’t wait for the results this week, or if you just want to check out the sales page, you can do so here:

Next up (probably next week) will be the Frontline Lay system which, as the name suggests, is a lay product. I received an email inviting me to promote this about two weeks ago, but didn’t think anything of it. (The truth is, as you might expect, I receive a lot of such emails).

Having not heard of the author before, I was a tad guarded about the system. However, I’ve since received an email from a regular correspondent telling me that he is using it with some success. So I thought I’d track it on here for a time.

The sales pitch is a little novice-y, but that’s irrelevant really. We’re after performance over pitch every time!

As I write this, I’m awaiting a reply from Ross with a review copy, so will revert as soon as I can on this.

Hope you’ve had a great weekend!
Matt