Hi All, as Gavin is still very busy selling Calenders he asked if I would take a look at todays racing and see if I could find something of interest. I have selected 5 from all over the country and hopefully we can pick up where we left off a couple of weeks ago. So here we go….
12.50 Haydock Harry Hunt needs a career best to win this but at 12/1 he looks worth a chance and as his jockey is 2-2 on him.
2.30 Haydock Knockara Beau ran some great races towards the end of last season when put back over hurdles, he finished 4th at Cheltenham off a rating of 156 and then 4th at Aintree off 155 behind Big Bucks. Top weights do run well in this race and he has won 1st time out on 3 of his 4 seasons. 28/1 looks way over priced.
3.20 Ascot I’msingingtheblues ran a cracker at Cheltenham last weekend looks a good EW bet in the 2m1f h’cap chase. 8/1 looks value with the Pipe stable in such tremendous form.
3.30 Huntingdon Go Amwell, I have tipped this a few times before but as Docofthebay proved last weekend if you stick by them they will repay you in the end, the 14/1 looks an interesting price as he is now 7lb lower than when winning over CD last autumn.
3.40 Haydock Killyglen was our trends selection for the Grand National way back in April, he was in the process of running a good race when he fell late on, back over hurdles for his last few runs, he goes back over the larger obstacles with AP McCoy doing the steering and 11/1 with Paddypower looks way way overpriced.
One last thing, I don’t very often get involved in Ante-Post betting, but I have a very strong fancy for The Giant Bolster in next Saturdays Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. He is top priced at 25/1 with VC and I think that is a very generous price and should he line up next saturday he’ll be a 10/1 shot in my opinion.
Good Luck as always
Gary

JOCKEYS

Over the last 5 years at Cheltenham the top 5 jockeys at the track have ridden over 150 winners between them…..

Trainer   Wins-Rides   Strike Rate  Profit/Loss
R. Walsh   46 – 202   23%   +£18.74
Paddy Brennan  29 – 251   12%   +£55.69
Richard Johnson  28 – 207   14%   -£23.38
Barry Geraghty  28 – 157   18%   +£22.62
A P McCoy   24 – 243   10%   -£101.83

But how have they got on at this 3 day meeting over the same period?…….

RUBY WALSH

Ruby Walsh missed the meeting last year due to injury so I have left the figures the same as when I researched them in 2010……….

Since 2005 Ruby Walsh has ridden 10 winners from 47 rides (21.3%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £3.12 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 0 / 12 (wins / runners) 
2006 6 / 14 
2007 1 / 4 
2008 1 / 8 
2009 2 / 9
2010 0 / 0

Hurdles  3 winners from 22 rides  Chases 5 winners from 23 rides
NH Flat 2 winners from 2 rides

7 of his winners won their last start.

PADDY BRENNAN

Since 2007 Paddy Brennan has ridden 6 winners from 46 rides (13%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £10.27 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 NO RIDES 
2007 2 / 10 (wins / runners) 
2008 2 / 14 
2009 2 / 13
2010 0 / 9

Hurdles  3 winners from 23 rides  Chases 3 winners from 21 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 2 rides
RICHARD JOHNSON

Since 2006 Richard Johnson has ridden 6 winners from 40 rides (15%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £10.71 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 3 / 9 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 10 
2008 0 / 4 
2009 0 / 7
2010 2 / 10

Hurdles  3 winners from 22 rides
Chases 3 winners from 16 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 2 rides

A P McCOY

Since 2006 Tony McCoy has ridden 4 winners from 48 rides (8.3%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £20 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 2 / 10 (wins / runners)
2007 2 / 9 
2008 0 / 8 
2009 0 / 12
2010 0 / 9

Hurdles  1 winners from 24 rides
Chases 3 winners from 20 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 4 rides

He’s been beaten on his last 35 rides at the meeting. His last winner was Alberta’s Run on 17th November 2007!!

BARRY GERAGHTY

Since 2007 Barry Geraghty has ridden just 3 winners from 21 rides (14.2%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £5.16 at level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 No rides 
2007 0 / 3 (wins / runners)
2008 1 / 6 
2009 1 / 1
2005 1 / 11

Hurdles  1 winners from 12 rides  Chases 2 winners from 7 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 2 rides
ROBERT THORNTON

Another jockey who didn’t ride at the meeting in 2010 due to injury….

Since 2005 Robert Thornton has ridden just 3 winners from 35 rides (8.6%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £15.05 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 0 / 7 (wins / runners) 
2006 1 / 7  
2007 1 / 9 
2008 0 / 7 
2009 1 / 5
2010 0 / 0

Hurdles  3 winners from 19 rides  Chases 0 winners from 15 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 1 rides

All 26 horses that he has ridden aged 5 or over have been beaten.
If you wish to download both the trainers and jockeys in a pdf guide then click here…….

>>>>FREE TRAINERS & JOCKEYS GUIDE<<<<

100% FREE and this is a direct, one click link.

Good luck,
Gavin.

—————

TRAINERTRACKSTATS

The TTS season began last Tuesday and after a sticky start we hit a bit of form on Saturday to end the week nicely infront. 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (26.7% strike rate) and a profit of over 5pts are the kind of figures we’ll be looking for throughout the Season.

Thanks to many of our subscribers taking the long term option and paying upfront for the 6 months we still have a number of £1 Membership’s available……GET YOUR £1 MEMBERSHIP HERE

If you want to give it a try and get the TTS Guide for just £1 you have until Wednesday lunchtime to register.

This week we’re also giving away the Cheltenham Trends for the weekend and the AW Jockeys Guide that I gave a couple of examples of in last weeks blog post (www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blogs)

You get both these guides included for £1 and a daily email highlighting the days selections. It must be the bargain of the Winter…….

GET YOUR £1 MEMBERSHIP HERE

Good luck,
Gavin.

Saturday sees the start of what many consider the real jumping season with the Cheltenham Open meeting taking centre stage. Last year I did a bit of research on the trainers and jockeys at the meeting and I’ve now updated it to take into account the 2010 meeting. I hope you can find something of use here…….

 PAUL NICHOLLS

The champion trainer has had 12 winners from 69 runners at a strike rate of 17.4%.
You would have lost £14.75 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 4 / 12 (wins / runners) 2007 1 / 12 2008 2 / 17 2009 2 / 12 2010 3 / 16

He’s had just 3 hurdle winners from 27 such runners with most of his winners coming from Chase races where he’s had 7 winners from 39 runners. He’s also trained 2 National Hunt Flat winners from 3 runners.

Interestingly all 12 winners have come in Class 1 or Class 2 contests with all 9 runners in lower grade races being beaten (just 1 placed).

All 12 winners had also raced no more than once in the previous 90 days with all 4 of the runners who had run more than once in that time period being unplaced

10 of his 12 winners were from the front two in the betting market but with 35 of his runners being sent off as favourite or second favourite simply backing his fancied runners will leave you just out of pocket (a 28.6% strike rate and a level stakes loss of -£3.25).

Backing his horses in races over 3m4f or further is another bad move as all 4 of these runners finished out of the frame.

And forget backing the old-timers from his yard at this meeting as all 7 runners aged 8 or older have been beaten (although 2 did make the frame).

Not surprisingly, Ruby Walsh has ridden 8 of Paul Nicholls’s 12 winners (from 30 rides)

2 of these were over hurdles (from 13 rides), 5 over fences (from 16 rides) and 1 in a NH Flat race. All 8 were in Class 1 or Class 2 races (27 rides).

Only 2 of Walsh’s winners for Nicholls were gained in handicap company (from 12 rides ) and would have resulted in a -£4.00 level stakes loss.

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Since 2006 Nigel Twiston-Davies has had 8 winners from 75 runners (10.7%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £7.20 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….
  
2006 0 / 14 (wins / runners)
2007 2 / 12 
2008 2 / 17 
2009 3 / 18
2010 1 / 14

He’s had just 2 hurdle winners from 29 such runners with most of his winners, like Paul Nicholls. coming in ‘Chase races. Over the larger obstacles he’s had 6 winners from 42 runners. His 4 runners in National Hunt Flat races have all been beaten.

Again like Paul Nicholls, all Nigel Twiston-Davies’s winners have been in Class 1 and 2 events with all 9 of his lower class runners being beaten (2 were placed).

His 8 winners were aged 5-8yo (from 43 runners) with the remaining 28 horses outside this age bracket all being beaten including all 11 of his 4yo runners.

All of his 7 winners had raced a maximum of 2 times in the last 90 days with 7 of them having had no more than 1 run in the same time period. All 11 of his horses to have raced at 3m2f or further at this meeting have been beaten.

Since 2005, backing the stables 5-8yo’s in Class 1 or 2 races up to 3m 1f would have given you…..

8 winners from 35 runners and a level stakes profit of +£32.79

Paddy Brennan has ridden 5 of Twiston-Davies’s 8 winners from his 35 rides for the stable

All 5 of his winners were aged 5-8yo and backing just these horses would have returned a  +£10.22 level stakes profit since 2006.

DAVID PIPE

His Dad may have dominated this meeting during his illustrious training career but Pipe Jnr has strugggled since taking over the stable in 2006. David Pipe has had 4 winners from 60 runners (6.7%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you a whopping £39.08 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….
 
2006 1 / 14 (wins / runners)  2007 0 / 15 2008 1 / 13 2009 1 / 9 2010 1 / 9

3 of his 4 winners were in Chases with 1 winner from 27 hurdle runners for the stable.
He’s also had 33 losers in Class 1 races.
PHILLIP HOBBS

Since 2006 Phillip Hobbs has had 7 winners from 51 runners (13.7%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £10.71 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….
 
2006 3 / 10 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 13 
2008 1 / 8 
2009 0 / 7
2010 2 / 13

He’s had 4 hurdle winners from 30 such runners with just 3 winners coming in ‘Chase races. Over the larger obstacles he’s had 19 runners for those 3 winners. He’s also had 2 runners in National Hunt Flat races without success.

Again like Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s all his winners have been in Class 1 and 2 events with all 17 of his lower class runners being beaten (6 were placed).

All 7 winners returned at 10/1 or under with his 20 higher priced horses all being beaten (just 3 placed).

5 of his 7 winners were aged 4 – 6 years old (31 runners) with the other winners being 9 and 11yo. 6 of the 7 winners finished in the top 3 last time out and 6 of the 7 had run no more than twice in the previous 90 days.

Since 2006, backing the stables 4-6yo’s in Class 1 or 2 races who had finished in the top 3 last time out would have given you…..

5 winners from 16 runners (31.2%) and a level stakes profit of +£15.53

Richard Johnson has ridden 6 of Phillip Hobbs’s 7 winners from his 27 rides for the stable although he drew a blank at the meeting in 2008/09. In 2008 he rode 3 horses for the stable and 2009 it was 4.

If, since 2006, you had backed Richard Johnson mounts for the stable at 2m – 2m1f in class 1 or 2 races you would have had 4 winners from 11 runners (36.4%). They would also have shown a £5.78 level stakes profit

Miss VENETIA WILLIAMS

She may have a great record at the Cheltenham Festival in March but Venetia Williams’s record at this meeting is simply woeful with all 26 of her runners since 2004 being beaten.

2004 0 / 4 (wins / runners) 
2005 0 / 4
2006 0 / 2 
2007 0 / 3 
2008 0 / 4 
2009 0 / 4
2010 0 / 5

ALAN KING

He may have had quite a bit of success at the track over the last 5 years but his performance at this particular meeting is very poor. From 42 runners he’s managed just 4 winners and you would have recorded a level stakes loss of £14.05.

His overall record looks like this……
 
2006 1 / 6 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 10 
2008 0 / 14 
2009 0 / 4
2010 2 / 8

3 of his 4 winners came over hurdles at 2m – 2m1f (from 15 runners)

Robert Thornton has ridden 2 winners but they came from 26 rides for the stable (7.7% strike rate).

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2006 Nicky Henderson has had 6 winners from 45 runners (13.3%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £10.91 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 7 (wins / runners) 
2007 0 / 7 
2008 2 / 11 
2009 2 / 7
2010 2 / 13

He’s had 4 hurdle winners (all in handicaps) from 24 hurdle runners with just 2 winners coming in ‘Chase races (both handicaps). Over the larger obstacles he’s had 18 runners for those 2 winners. He’s also had 3 runners in National Hunt Flat races without success.

All 6 of his winners were aged 5 - 7yo of which he has had 29 such runners. They were all in Class 2 or 3 races (21 runners) and at a distance up to 2m5f (40 runners).

All 24 of his runners in Class 1 events have been beaten (and just 6 placed).

All of his 6 winners were colts or geldings and the 6 female horses he’s run at the meeting have been beaten with just 2 getting placed.

Backing his 5 – 7yo’s in class 2 and 3 handicaps would have given you 6 winners from 13 runners and a Level Stakes Profit of £21.08 since 2006.
FERDY MURPHY

You can always rely on Ferdy Murphy to have at least one runner at the meeting including  one in the Paddy Power Chase. He won that race in 2007 which has provided half his tally of winners in the last 5 years. Those 2 winners came from 12 runners and you would have won £1 by backing them all at level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 4 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 2 
2008 0 / 1 
2009 1 / 2
2010 0 / 3

Both winners came at 2m4f+, in handicap chases (8 runners), in Class 1 events (8 runners) and both were 5-7yo (7 runners) .

Interestingly they were both from the top 2 in the betting and were the only two runners from the stable to have started 1st or 2nd favourite.

JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has by far the best record at this meeting of all the current trainers. Since 2005 Jonjo O’Neill has had 7 winners from 36 runners (19.4%) at Cheltenham in November although he hasn’t trained a winner at either of the last 2 ‘Open’ meetings. Backing all his runners over this period would have won you a very impressive £26.00 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 3 / 13 (wins / runners) 
2006 1 / 7 
2007 2 / 5 
2008 1 / 2 
2009 0 / 2
2010 0 / 7

He’s had 4 hurdle winners from 18 such runners with just 3 winners coming in ‘Chase races. Over the larger obstacles he’s had 15 runners for those 3 winners. He’s also had 3 runners in National Hunt Flat races but without success.

All 7 winners finished in the top 2 last time out from 18 such runners.

If you ignored the National Hunt flat races and had simply backed Jonjo O’Neill horses who finished in the top 2 last time out you would have backed 7 winners from just 15 runners and made a massive level stakes profit of £47.00.

Tony McCoy has ridden 5 of the O’Neill winners from his  21 rides.

—————-

TRAINERTRACKSTATS

The TTS season began last Tuesday and after a sticky start we hit a bit of form on Saturday to end the week nicely infront. 4 winners from 15 qualifiers (26.7% strike rate) and a profit of over 5pts are the kind of figures we’ll be looking for throughout the Season.

Thanks to many of our subscribers taking the long term option and paying upfront for the 6 months we still have a number of £1 Membership’s available……GET YOUR £1 MEMBERSHIP HERE

If you want to give it a try and get the TTS Guide for just £1 you have until Wednesday lunchtime to register.

This week we’re also giving away the Cheltenham Trends for the weekend and the AW Jockeys Guide that I gave a couple of examples of in last weeks blog post (www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blogs)

You get both these guides included for £1 and a daily email highlighting the days selections. It must be the bargain of the Winter…….

GET YOUR £1 MEMBERSHIP HERE

Good luck,
Gavin.

Saturday 5th November (+23.75): I said last week that I would continue to the end of the flat season, so today is my last day. I’m hoping to go out with a bang, rather than the damp squib that it’s been this week.

All selections today are EW

1.25 Doncaster BOUNTIFUL CATCH 33/1 LADBROKES
2.00 Doncaster AXIOM 12/1 GENERAL
2.00 Doncaster DOCOFTEHBAY 25/1 GENERAL
3.10 Doncaster CLASSIC VINTAGE 16/1 BET365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
3.10 Doncaster TEPMOKEA 25/1 BET365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
3.20 Wincanton RICHARDS SUNDANCE 16/1 BET365

It’s been fun doing this daily blog and I hope one or two of you made some money. I’ll be back on Monday with a final review of my 5 weeks in charge and looking at the stats to see how I performed.

Good Luck as always
Gary

Friday 4th November:(+27.75)

EW Selections:

DICKIE LE DAVOIR 3.00 FFOS LAS 20/1 an in and out sprinter who had a cracking time of it in the spring, has come back from his break in reasonable form and I’m prepared to take a chance that he has improved enough to get back on the winning ways, he does get behind early on so might be one to back on exchanges in running.

FAULT 6.40 WOLVERHAMPTON 14/1one we have done before, ran a cracker last week at Kempton over 1mile, todays drop in trip should help him get home.

Good Luck as always
Gary

Thursday 3rd November(29.75)

EW Selection: NOT MY CHOICE 2.10 SOUTHWELL 33/1 winning front runner, back in May, runs today off 4lb lower mark. Ran over 5F last time behind Style And Panache, this is much more like his trip and from stall 2 can nab the lead.

Good Luck as always
Gary

Wednesday 2nd November (+31.75)

EW Selection: BOTANIST 4.10 NOTTINGHAM 33/1 BET365 & WHILL formerly with Sir M. Stoute, now with new trainer Tobias Coles, had very good 2yo form, now finding his mark, beaten over 12f last time now back down to 10f I think he could run well at some very rewarding odds.

Good Luck as always
Gary

Tuesday 1st November: (+33.75)

A very poor days racing in which there is very little that appeals to me. The Haldon Gold Cup is worth a watch but not as a betting medium. So for today I’m going to stick with last Mondays winner for us, who is allowed to run off the same mark of 58 as last week, as he won an apprentices race. INSOLENCEOFOFFICE is also ridden by the winning apprentice that day and its the same CD so all looks good for a good run.

EW Selection: INSOILENCEOFOFFICE 4.10 REDCAR 8/1 BET365

Good Luck as always
Gary

Monday 31st October: (+37.75) Wow what a week that was, Monday last week we were -23pts, but with 3 good priced EW winners and a 9/2 win selection winner we managed to amass a near 60pt profit on the week. Lets hope the good run continues this week.

Win Selection (533578F10): 9/2 Winner

EW Selection (920515300600530900715650678490000808P902F05071052106226597917)
Winners at 25/1, 18/1, 18/1(R4), 16/1, 16/1(R4)

BOOGIE DANCER 4.20 KEMPTON 33/1 WHILL not been in great form in recent runs but is down 10lb and has a good jockey on board.

VITZNAU 5.00 WOLVERHAMPTON 20/1 LADBROKES down nearly 30lb in the ratings he’s absolutely thrown in on his best form, Ladbrokes are a stand out price at 20/1 which looks a huge price.

Good Luck as always
Gary

DON’T FORGET: TTS launches today and you can get a copy for just £1 (while stocks last!) by clicking here……

>>>>>TrainerTrackStats

Very well done to Gary who managed yet another big priced winner this month when tipping Exmoor Ranger at 25/1 yesterday.

He has just the one tip running today;

GO AMWELL 3.35 Huntingdon (each way)

——————–

In the second extract from my forthcoming AW Jockey’s Guide we take a look at………

GRAHAM GIBBONS – ‘The PROFIT-MAKER’

He was 4^th in the AW Jockey Championship for 2010-11 on number of winners (37) and managed a strike rate of 16%. If you look back through his AW career you’ll see he has ridden 108 winners from 837 rides (12.9%) and shows a LSP of +£89.90. That’s pretty decent for a jockey who has been riding quite a few horses every season since 2004.

The most striking figure about Graham Gibbons on the All Weather is that he showed a profit on all of his rides for each season between 2006 and 2009.

TRACKS

He rides mainly at the two ‘Midlands’ tracks of Wolverhampton and Southwell where he has differing levels of success. At Wolverhampton he enjoys an incredible LSP from an okay strike rate of 13.1% whereas Southwell isn’t a profitable track for Gibbons and he has his lowest strike rate there too.

Wolverhampton winners include 3×16/1, 1×25/1, 2×33/1, 1×50/1 and 2×66/1!

He’s worth noting when he ventures further South to ride at Kempton as he has an excellent strike rate there and shows a profit on all his rides. Also worth noting is that nearly 50% of all his rides at Kempton have finished in the frame It’s a different story at the other Southern AW track as he has a LSL at Lingfield due to him riding just 3 winners from 22 rides (13.6%)

MONTHS

Thanks mainly to his exploits at Wolverhampton Graham Gibbons is able to show a profit in 3 out of the 4 months of the AW Season. He obviously has Christmas on his mind throughout December though as he shows a loss at all 4 tracks including the usually reliable Wolverhampton.

He is yet another jockey unable to get to grips with Southwell and shows a loss for all 4 months.

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

TRAINERS

• GRAHAM GIBBONS riding for T. BARRON

The beginning of this year didn’t go too well for the pair as they were unsuccessful with the 11 horses they teamed up with in January and February 2011, although 5 of the 11 were placed. Overall they are 7 wins from 31 runners (22.6%) since 2006 with a further 11 of them being placed. Their LSP is +£25.47.

Interestingly over 5 furlongs they are 1 winner and 6 places from 8 runners and in handicaps have a 50% place strike rate (11 from 22) including 4 of their winners.

• GRAHAM GIBBONS riding for R. HOLLINSHEAD

It’s a partnership that has been doing very well since 2005 with 22 winners from 170 runners (12.9%) and a LSP of +£33.32. With the exception of a disappointing 2007 (1 winner from 17) they have been a profitable double act to follow especially in November.

If you forget their runners in handicaps and claimers and instead back their 2-4yo’s over 5f – 1m1f that had run in the last 40 days (or were making their debut) it would have proved very profitable and would have given you a LSP of +£101.45.

12 winners from 43 runners (27.9% strike rate), a profit in all 4 months of the season, plus at least 1 winner and a profit for every year since 2005.

• GRAHAM GIBBONS riding for JJ QUINN

Together they have struck 7 times from 50 runners (14%) and show a LSP of +£24.00. All 7 winners were in January and February and came in Class 5-7 races. All 11 runners trying a longer trip than their previous start were beaten. All 7 female runners were beaten while all 3 of their 2yo runners ran unplaced.

So wait until January and then back them when they team up in Class 5-7 races with Colts and Geldings running over the same trip (or less) than their last start. With this type of horse they have had 7 winners and 3 placed horses from 24 runners. They also show a LSP of +£51.00

• GRAHAM GIBBONS riding for B. BAUGH

They’ve only just started as a partnership but it looks promising so far. 5 winners from 44 runners is a fairly low 11.4% strike rate but the LSP is +£47

Wait until December and then back their runners that are carrying 8-08–9-05 and have run in the last 14 days (or making debut). This would have given you 5 winners and 5 places from 17 runners and a very healthy LSP of +£74.00.

WHEN TO AVOID BACKING HIM

 2miles+

Since 2004 he’s ridden in 14 races over 2 miles or further and has only a place to show for his efforts.

 Claimers

 He’s ridden 41 horses in claimers since 2004 and managed just 3 wins (at 11/8, 9/2 and 10/1).

 All 3 winners were at Wolverhampton with 17 losers at the other 3 tracks. All 14 rides that were dropped in class compared to their last run were beaten. The 23 horses that he rode in claimers that had finished 5^th or worse on their last start were all beaten. When riding for Reg Hollinshead in claimers he is 1 winner from 16 runners.

 In December

 Bizarrely, he just doesn’t seem to be at his best during the month of December. His 24 winners from 200 rides since 2004 have produced a level stakes loss of -£62.14 and it’s the only month of the AW season that he doesn’t show a profit at Wolverhampton.

 It may simply be down to the fact that his record on outsiders during this month is appalling. Of the 63 horses he’s ridden that have been 16/1 or bigger in the betting none have won and only 4 have been placed. All 31 runners at 28/1 or bigger were unplaced.

 His record on 2yo’s in this month is 3 from 39 which is a very low 7.7% strike rate.

 All 46 horses that he rode that had their last run over 40 days ago or were making their debut in this month were beaten.

 E. Alston

 He’s ridden for the stable 16 times since 2005 without a single success and only 3 of his rides managed a place. He’s ridden at least once a season for the stable since 2005 with the exception of 2008.

 All his rides for the table were at Southwell or Wolverhampton and ranged in price from 9/2 – 40/1.

 All 3 placed horses were 4yo’s (from 5 such runners).

 —————————-

As we saw in section 1, backing all Graham Gibbons’ mounts since 2004 would have given us 108 winners from 837 runners, a LSP of +£89.80 and a whole stack of big priced outsiders.

 Not bad at all, but by following these 3 Golden Rules we can make those figures look even better…..

 GRAHAM GIBBONS: 3 GOLDEN RULES

 1) Don’t back him in claimers or sellers.

 By sticking to just maidens and handicaps we lose 23 mainly shortish priced winners but would have saved ourselves a further 182 bets.

 We would now would have had 85 winners from 652 runners and shown a LSP of +£134.16

 2) Only back him at Kempton or Wolverhampton

 He has ridden quite a few winners at Southwell during his career but can’t seem to show a profit at the track. Whereas Wolverhampton has always been a good course for him as has Kempton on his rare sorties to the track.

 We now would have 56 winners from 404 rides and a LSP of £196.14

 3) Give him December off

 I’m not sure this is technically a good thing to do and it may be manipulating the statistics in an inappropriate way but the figures do show that December isn’t a good time to back Graham Gibbons. He has failed to make a profit in this month in any year since 2004 or at any of the 4 AW tracks.

 So, simply back ALL Graham Gibbons runners that are running at Wolverhampton or Kempton in maidens or handicaps during the months of November, January and February.

 Following these 3 simple rules since 2005 would have given you 45 winners from 310 bets (14.5% strike rate) and an eye-watering LSP of +£232.98

 There would have been plenty of losers along the way but some very nice priced winners to soften the blow. You would have made a nice profit every year since 2005, bar 2010 (£1.27 loss!).

 You can narrow his profitable rides down even further by just backing him on these types of horse in class 5 or 6 races on runners that are not raised in class compared to their previous start.

 37 winners from 219 runners and a LSP of +£253.20

 BUT…..

 If there are still too many losers backing him like this and you would prefer to be more selective then we can narrow things down for Kempton and Wolverhampton

WHEN TO BACK GRAHAM GIBBONS AT KEMPTON

Back him in Class 5-7 handicaps on horses that had their previous run within the last 25 days.

 You would have had 5 winners (and 5 places) from just 11 runners (45.5% win / 90.9% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£23.90

 The 11 runners finished: 12302121112

 WHEN TO BACK GRAHAM GIBBONS AT WOLVERHAMPTON

 The best time to back him is in November in maidens and handicaps on horses running over 1m-1m7f.

 You would have had 12 winners (and 9 places) from 52 runners (23.1% win / 40.4% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£110.22

 They finished: 5071165421091231291656179681461351406582213841096336

As I said on Friday I will be giving the complete AW Jockeys guide away FREE with this years TTS Guide. I have covered 5 jockeys in this comprehensive style (Luke Morris, George Baker, David Probert, Graham Gibbons and Neil Callan), for a further 29 jockeys I have highlighted the best types of races to back them in and have also listed 7 jockeys who you just can’t seem to make a profit from (surprisingly Hayley Turner features in this list thanks to her poor return of 136 winners from 1454 rides (9.4% strike rate) and an enormous LSL of -£526.98)

 The guide is 48 pages long and should give you plenty to think about during the Winter months.

Don’t forget for just £1 you can have this years TTS Guide PLUS the AW Jockeys Guide. It has to be the offer of the Season.

To guarantee your £1 copy you MUST be on the Early Bird list as there are only limited copies available at this ridiculous low price and, judging by the size of the list, it looks very much as if they will all be sold before TTS goes on general sale at midday……

SIGN UP HERE>>>>>>>> TTS VIP EARLY BIRD LIST

Good luck,
Gavin.

Saturday 29th October: (+12.5pts): Not a good day on Friday which is best forgotten and move on to the weekend, I have 3 for Saturday and 1 for Sunday..

Win Selections (533578F10) Winner 9/2

EW Selections (920515300600530900715650678490000808P902F0507105210622659) Winners @ 18/1, 16/1(R4), 18/1(R4), 16/1

MAC LOVE 2.05 NEWMARKET 25/1 LADBROKES once a good miler, getting on a bit now and has returned to his original trainer but still shown signs he retains ability overpriced at 25’s

DUSTER 3.15 NEWMARKET 25/1 WHILL has won twice at 7F this trip should be more to his liking than previous 2 runs and Hughes finished 2nd on him on this course last October the only time he has ridden him.

EXMOOR RANGER 3.40 ASCOT 25/1 STANJAMES or 20/1 GENERAL staying on 4th in this race last year, didn’t progress after that. Starts season on a good mark and could be better than form figures suggest good ew chance.

SUNDAY 30TH

GO AMWELL 3.35 HUNTINGDON (NO EARLY PRICES YET)

Have a great weekend and I’ll be back on Monday.

Good Luck As Always
Gary

P.S. After the great feedback for Gavin’s AW Jockey Guide yesterday he’ll be posting another jockey’s stats (Graham Gibbons) in a special Sunday Post tomorrow. Graham Gibbons’s record at Wolverhampton is quite exceptional and has included winners at  16/1 (3 times), 25/1, 33/1 (twice), 50/1 and two 66/1 shots since 2004.

Don’t forget you’ll get the full 40 jockey guide included free with the TTS Manual for this years TTS. Sign-up now for your guaranteed £1 copy

>>>> TTS VIP EARLY BIRD LIST

I’ve been doing quite a bit of research recently on the top 40 all weather flat jockeys from last season.
I did it mainly to aid my own punting this Winter but I’ll offer the full guide to anyone who takes up my £1 offer on the TTs.
As a sample of what you can expect from the stats here’s the full analysis of last years champion AW Jockey Luke Morris….

LUKE MORRIS – ‘KING of the OUTSIDERS’

He was the champion AW Jockey for 2010-11 on both number of winners (53) and total prize-money won (£178k). His win strike rate throughout the AW Season was fairly poor at just 12% but thanks to some big priced winners he still managed to show a massive level stakes profit of over £53 on all of his 459 rides.

This mirrors his career achievements on the AW over the last few seasons as since January 2005 he has ridden 111 winners from 996 rides (11.1%) with a LSP of +£69.08. 

TRACKS

Of the 4 all-weather tracks his best figures have come at Lingfield (2005 – 2011) in terms of winners, strike rate and profit. He has ridden winners at 16/1 (twice), 33/1 and 50/1 (twice) since 2005 at Lingfield.

At Southwell it’s a similar story with winners at 18/1, 25/1 (twice) and 40/1 since 2005. Over at Kempton there have been plenty of good priced winners at 10/1 or bigger including two at 16/1, two at 20/1 and one at 28/1.

Although he rides plenty of winners at Wolverhampton it is the only one of the 4 AW tracks where he is showing a loss on all his rides. This despite winners at 16/1 (twice), 25/1, 28/1 and 50/1.

MONTHS

As you can see below backing him in the month of November was profitable at every track while the reverse is true in February where you would have lost money at all 4 tracks.

January is another strong month for him with 3 of the 4 AW tracks showing very good profits with just Wolverhampton letting the side down.

 NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

 JANUARY

 FEBRUARY

TRAINERS

LUKE MORRIS riding for J. BALDING

They’ve been teaming up successfully since 2009 and have had 5 winners and 6 places from 24 runners. They show a level stakes win profit of +£24.08.

The 7 horses that ran in February were all beaten as were all 6 runners that had won their previous race. All 5 winners came over 5 furlongs (13 such runners).

 Back the combination between November 1^st and January 31^st over 5f with horses that did not win their previous start for 5 winners from 6 runners and a LSP of +£42.08. (25/1, 9/4, 10/3, 9/2, 8/1 and a 16/1 fourth)

LUKE MORRIS riding for P. HIATT

The partnership has managed at least 1 winner a year since 2007 for a total of 6 winners and 5 places from 34 runners (17.6% win strike rate). They show a LSP of +£13.20.

 All 6 winners came in Class 5 or Class 6 company and were all 14-1 or shorter. Backing these types would have given you 6 winners from 23 runners (26.1%) and a LSP of +£24.20.

 LUKE MORRIS riding for A. CARROLL

Together they have struck 9 times from 53 runners (17%) and show a LSP of +£29.33. All 9 winners have been at 7 furlongs or further in class 3-6 races. The 11 runners they have had that were 28/1 or bigger have all been unplaced. 8 of the 9 winners were male with only 1 female winner from 20 runners

Wait until January and then back them when they team up in Class 3-6 races with Colts and Geldings running over 7f or further. At 25/1 or under they have had 8 winners and 3 placed horses from 18 runners. They also show a LSP of +£43.33

LUKE MORRIS riding for R. HARRIS

This jockey/trainer combination have scored 15 times from 127 rides (11.8%) since 2007. They show a LSP of +£66.12. All 16 of their 2yo’s have been beaten as have all 24 of their runners that were raised in class compared to their previous start. All 15 winners carried between 8-08 and 9-09 and were in a class 3-6 race.

Again, wait until January and then back their male (colts and geldings) runners that are carrying 8-08 – 9-09 and aren’t up in class. This would have given you 12 winners from 39 runners and a very healthy LSP of +£96.12.

WHEN TO AVOID BACKING HIM

Class 7 Races

Since 2005 he’s ridden in 40 Class 7 races and managed just 3 wins for a level stakes loss of -£25.50. All 3 winners came from the top 2 in the betting and had their previous race in the last fortnight. 24 of the 37 losers started at 8/1 or bigger.

All 17 of his class 7 rides at Kempton have been beaten and only 1 of his 16 similar rides at Wolverhampton was successful.

2yo’s

Since 2005 he’s ridden 116 2yo’s but managed to win on just 6 of them. You would have lost £92.89 backing them to level stakes.

All 6 winners had finished in the top 3 on their last start (from 30 such types). All 11 of the 2yo’s he rode that were making their debut were unplaced.

81 of the 110 losers started at 8/1 or bigger in the betting.

All 44 of his 2yo rides over 5 or 6f were beaten.

Just 1 of his 31 Nursery (2yo handicap) rides was successful.

4 of his 6 2yo winners were for the trainer J. Moore (from 25 rides). All 16 2yo rides for Ron Harris were losers with just 2 placed.

At Kempton his record on 2yo’s is 1 from 27, Lingfield 2 from 26, Southwell 0 from 19 and Wolverhampton 3 from 44.

66/1 or bigger

Since 2005, 49 of his mounts have started at 66/1 or bigger and all have been beaten although he has twice been in the frame at 100/1 (both times at Lingfield).

8-03 or under

The lowest weight he has ridden at in the last 12 months has been 7-13 but he doesn’t seem to be very comfortable riding at this end of the weight scale. He’s wasted to this low weight 3 times since 2005 but all 3 times he was unplaced. The 49 times he has gone to the scales at 8-03 or less has produced just the 1 win at 15/8 and 10 places.

N. Littmoden

He’s ridden for the stable 22 times since 2005 without a single success although 8 of his mounts were placed (6 in handicaps). Interestingly 7 of the 8 placed horses came at Lingfield from just 10 runners.

————–

As we saw in section 1, backing all Luke Morris mounts since 2005 would have given us 111 winners from 996 runners and a LSP of +£69.08.

Not bad at all, but by following these 3 Golden Rules we can make those figures look even better…..

 LUKE MORRIS: 3 GOLDEN RULES

 1 -  Don’t back him on 2yo’s.

We lose 6 winners by ignoring the juvenile runners but would have saved ourselves a further 110 bets.

We would now have had 105 winners from 880 runners and a LSP of +£161.98

2 - Don’t bother with any of his rides that are 66/1 or bigger

He has ridden plenty of outsiders throughout his AW career and scored on many 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1 runners but the 33 times he has ridden a horse that has been completely ignored by the betting public, i.e. 66/1 or bigger, they have all been beaten.

Removing these outsiders we now have those same 105 winners but from only 847 runners (12.4% strike rate) and a LSP of +£194.98

3 - Concentrate on him only when he’s riding at 8-04 or more.

Luke Morris seems best when he is able to ride at, or above, his optimum weight. This appears to be 8-04 as all 26 of his rides that carried less than this weight were beaten including 4 from the top 2 in the betting and 10 at odds of 10/1 or less.

So, simply back ALL Luke Morris runners that are 50/1 or shorter in the betting, are 3 years old plus and are carrying 8-04 or more.

Following these 3 simple rules since 2005 would have given you 105 winners from 821 bets (12.8% strike rate) and a whopping LSP of +£220.98

There would have been plenty of losers along the way but some very nice priced winners to soften the blow. You would have made a profit EVERY year since 2005 and backed at least 25 winners for the last 3 seasons. Following these 3 rules now make all of the 4 AW tracks profitable to back at.

For even bigger profits you can stop backing him at the end of January and cut and run. His figures under these conditions for November 1^st – January 31^st are 74 winners from 561 rides (13.2%) and an eye-watering level stakes profit of +£271.52

BUT…..

If there are still too many losers backing him like this and you would prefer to be more selective then we can narrow things down for each track…..

WHEN TO BACK LUKE MORRIS AT LINGFIELD

 Simply wait until he’s riding in a 1m2f – 1m3f race carrying between 9-02 and 9-09 in weight.

 You would have had 12 winners (and 3 places) from just 20 runners (60% win / 75% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£72.37

 The 20 runners finished: 71111167011311212115

WHEN TO BACK LUKE MORRIS AT KEMPTON

Back all his rides that are aged 3 – 5yo’s in Class 5 or 6, 5 furlong – 7 furlong Handicaps that are run in November and December..

You would have had 6 winners (and 3 places) from just 10 runners (60% win / 90% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£60.50

The 10 runners finished: 1211123110

WHEN TO BACK LUKE MORRIS AT SOUTHWELL

It’s best to wait until the New Year and back him in the months of January and February. Then you need a 3-5yo with 7 or more career starts that is running in a Class 5 – 7 race carrying 8-04 – 9-05.

You would have had 10 winners (and 3 places) from 23 runners (43.5% win/ 56.5% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£72.45

The 23 runners finished: 11424751901031129116711

WHEN TO BACK LUKE MORRIS AT WOLVERHAMPTON

Only back him in handicaps at the end of the year i.e. November and December on 3-6yo’s carrying 8-04 – 9-05. His mount must have run in the last 60 days and is not up in trip compared to it’s last run.

You would have had 11 winners (and 6 places) from 45 runners (24.4% win / 37.8% place strike rate) for a level stakes profit of +£92.00

They finished: 162554341174017389104156214195033469756111663

———————————————-

And now for Gary’s tips………….

Friday 28th October(+17.5pts) A frustrating day with two 2nd’s from our 3 runners, let’s hope for some better luck today and see at least one of our 4 runners in the winners enclosure.

Win Selection (533578F1) Winner @ 9/2

BARLIFFEY 3.10 UTTOXETER 8/1 BET365 finished 2nd at Kelso when he was only our 2nd selection, has finished 4th at Carlisle since when a beaten fav, given too much to do that day and the race may have come too soon after his Kelso run. Had a couple of weeks to recover and if running anything like Kelso he looks to have a major chance today.

EW Selection (920515300600530900715650678490000808P902F05071052106226) Winners @ 18/1, 16/1(R4), 18/1(R4) & 16/1, 2nd’s 12/1, 25/1, 8/1, 10/1 & 10/1

KIRKHAMMERTON 4.55 UTTOXETER 14/1 BET365 & PP A two time winner last season over slightly shorter trips, but has been running over longer trips than todays recently, this trip is ideal for him and his rating has now slipped back down to 108 his last winning rating.

UNCLE KEEF 5.05 WETHERBY 16/1 BET365 I liked the look of him last time he ran but just couldn’t bring myself to do him, he ran his best race in finishing a close up and staying on 4th under todays rider and as this is a conditional jockeys race he looks set to run a big race.

MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR 5.20 NEWMARKET 10/1 BET365 & PP another one I tipped last time he ran at Bath, that was over a slightly shorter trip than todays and as he has winning form on this course, the trip is ideal and his rating has slipped to a nice winning mark it all looks set for a big run.

Good Luck as always
Gary

I’ll be launching the 6th NH TTS Guide on Monday and have decided this year to try and make it as accessible to as many blog readers as possible.

To do this I have come up with the following package for the absolute bargain price of just £1…..

• the full 2011-2012 TTS Guide
• a 2 week trial of the daily selections sent by email
• full trends guides for the Charlie Hall Chase, The Breeders Cup and Cheltenham’s Open meeting
• A 50 page statistical analysis of the top 40 AW Jockeys and the races to back them in

I doubt you’ll get a better offer all season than all of that for £1.00!

So what’s the catch? Well technically it’s this…..after the 2 week trial period is over you will be charged a one off fee of £39 to continue receiving the daily email selections.

BUT you can cancel at anytime during the 2 week trial and you won’t be charged a penny more. You can keep everything you have received including the TTS Guide. If you think everything you have received up until then is worth paying the extra for then stay registered and enjoy the service until 30th April 2012. If it’s not for you or you don’t think the package is worth the price or you can’t afford the £39 then simply unregister and good luck for the Season. No hard feelings.

Now obviously there is going to be a big demand for the package at this price and I’m going to limit the number of £1 copies to 1000. After this number of customers is reached I will revert to the normal TTS price of £39.

To ensure you get your copy for £1 you simply need to get on the VIP Early Bird list. This will guarantee you secure the TTS NH Guide for 2011-2012 (and all the other goodies) on Monday morning before it goes on general sale later in the day.

So how do you get on the VIP list?

Simple, click here….. TTS VIP EARLY BIRD LIST

I’ll even send you the Charlie Hall Trends just for registering.

Please note: By registering for the Early Bird List you are under no obligation to purchase anything. You will simply receive an email at 9am on Monday morning informing you of where you can get your TTS copy for £1. If you decide you don’t want to buy the guide then simply ignore this email.

I hope this all makes sense. Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s now over to Gary and his tips…….

Thursday 27th October:(+18.5pts) In view of the positive response I have had in feed back and emails, I have agreed with Gavin that I will carry on doing the same thing until Saturday 12th November, when we will review it again. I am actually on holiday that weekend (well I say holiday I’m taking my youngest 4 to Butlins Minehead to watch WWE Wrestling), but I’ll still be posting my selections.
 
We are enjoying a nice little purple patch at the moment which I hope we can continue today, although if truth be told it was quite difficult to actually find a selection or two as todays racing isn’t very good. I’m afraid 2 very poor NH cards and 2 AW cards doesn’t get me over excited. But having said that when I sorted out a couple of races to take a closer look at I ended up quite liking the look of my selection in the 3.10 Lingfield (although I have gone against a horse I have tipped before, We Have A Dream, as I don’t feel the trip is right for him today.)

 Win Selection (533578F1): Winner 9/2 NO SELECTION TODAY
 
EW Selection (920515300600530900715650678490000808P902F0507105210) 4 Winners 18/1, 16/1(R4), 18/1(R4) & 16/1
 
SEEK THE FAIR LAND 3.10 LINGFIELD 10/1 BET365 his AW form figures here at Lingfield read 113333229, not been in great shapes on the turf this season, but this return to his favourite surface and back up to 7F all bodes well for a good run.
 
TINKERBELL WILL 7.30 8/1 BET365 I gave this as a selection back in the summer when he won at Yarmouth. He has AW experience and winning form over a mile so should run a good race today.
 
ILE NASTASE 8.30 KEMPTON 8/1 BET365have tipped him before, now stepped up in trip from his recent efforts this could bring about the necessary improvement for him to get his head infront.
 
Good Luck a always
Gary
 
PS the running total is before Fault runs as I have had to do the selections early and we may well get better prices on the 3 selections as only Bet365 have prices up. I will post any updates in the comments section.

Tuesday 25th October: (-1pt)

It was nice to see Insolenceofoffice win yesterday, his last run was very encouraging and if you remember I slated Fanning for not being very forceful or using his whip at all, well he can’t say it’s because the horse doesn’t respond because yesterday he battled on very tenaciously when he was headed inside the final furlong. As you may have noticed I do like to stick by a horse once I have tipped it once, mainly because I look for well handicapped horses who I hope return to form with a bang thus giving us a good priced winner. So if I fancied it last time it ran and it was unplaced and has subsequently dropped another 2 or 3lbs then in my view it’s an even better bet. One such horse runs today in he 4.30 at Yarmouth, Make My Dream wins every now and again, his last win was back in May at Warwick over 5F of a rating of 68, last time he ran I tipped him at Nottingham of a rating of 62 and he ran really well to finish 6th of 17, now he runs off a rating of 60 which is his lowest mark for over 4 years. In fact all his 5 career wins have come since August 2007(the last time he was rated 60) and all over 5F. 

Win Selection (533578F): STRIKEMASTER 3.20 CATTERICK 7/1 BET365 & VC was our first winner 3 weeks ago over this CD, hopefully he can defy the 5lb rise in the weights

EW Selection (920515300600530900715650678490000808P902F05071): 3 WINNERS 18/1, 16/1(R4) & 18/1(R4)

GALLAGHER 2.50 CATTERICK 22/1 WHILL once rated 118 now down to a career low 80, the 5F last time out was far too short for him this return to 7f will help

CLUMBER PLACE 3.50 CATTERICK 14/1 WHILL this is the 4th time he has appeared this month, twice a NR and 4th last time out, another 2lb drop in the ratings makes him 4lb below his Newmarket winning mark from this time last year.Booking of P.Hanagan looks interesting.

MAKE MY DREAM 4.30 YARMOUTH 8/1 BET365
Good Luck as always
Gary