I’ve taken a look back over my punting career to come up with my top 5 Cheltenham memories…

1) Something Wells

I’ll never forget the adrenalin rush I experienced last year as the horse laid down his challenge on the home turn before leading over the last and then battling on bravely to hold on from his stablemate. Heaven knows what my neighbours must have thought as I shouted, cheered and charged around the front room like a lunatic. My family had taken refuge in the kitchen and only came out of hiding once he was back in the parade ring and I had calmed down a little. It was the most money I’d ever won a single horse, which was obviously great, but knowing so many other people had won big money too was just as gratifying. If only every confident tip I gave out could run like that….

2) Norton’s Coin

Up to 12 months ago this was the highlight of my betting career. I was working as a betting shop manager for William Hills in Torquay and had little knowledge of the form book back then (some will say I have little knowledge of it even now!) but I was keen to learn and there were plenty of successful punters in the shop keen to teach. My punting guru Phil Laister and I used to talk most mornings and go through our fancies for the day. Neither of us were ever what you would call ‘favourite backers’ and we were always trying to find the big outsider to beat the jolly and give us a big pay day.  I have come close on many occasions but never closer than Gold Cup day 1990. We were both keen on the chances of a massive outsider in the Gold Cup and we both took the 200/1 in Ladbrokes. I stuck him in a multiple bet with  Call Collect in the Foxhunters, Bigsun in the Kim Muir and after Nortons Coin had done the business my dreams of retirement hinged on 12/1 shot Multum In Parvo in the Cathcart. No prizes for guessing where he eventually finished.

Nortons Coin remains the longest priced winner I’ve ever backed and that bet the nearest to a 6 figure payout I’ve ever had.

3) Monkerhostin

He was a horse I had noted running a cracker in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury when finishing third to Geos and Rooster Booster having looked the likely winner over the last. I checked the entries for Cheltenham as soon as they were published and took 14/1 on him for the Coral Cup. He had a prep race at Kempton (a Grade 2 hurdle) a couple of weeks before ,which he won nicely, and I was as confident of him winning the Coral Cup as I’ve ever been about any horse winning any handicap before or since. I topped up £200 on him before the race, which was a massive bet for me back then,  and settled down to watch proceedings in a London boozer with Matt. The result was never in any doubt throughout the race and he eventually won by a length. Happy days!

4) Unsinkable Boxer

It wasn’t my biggest ever bet, I didn’t win massive amounts, he wasn’t a big outsider and I didn’t tip him to hundreds of people but he was the easiest winner I’ve ever backed at Cheltenham. For the horse to win so easily in one of the toughest handicaps of the season was just a joy to watch. Sent off the 5/2 favourite for the 1998 24 runner Gold Card Final (now the Pertemps) he led 2 flights from home and never came out of a canter with Tony McCoy turning around up the run-in to taunt those behind him by waving his whip in a rare show of cockiness. It was probably also the last time Tony McCoy smiled at the Cheltenham Festival.

5) Space Fair

This one holds particularly good memories for me because it came at a time of extreme desperation.  For a disastrous 18 months my brother and I had a betting shop in Poole and we were on the ropes due to a very shrewd local bookmaker having an incredible winning run. We were constantly having to pay him out and struggling to keep afloat when I finally made a breakthrough and backed Space Fair to win the Grand Annual. He obliged at 5/1 and I followed it up by backing the Cathcart and The County Hurdle winner for good measure. We took the money and got the hell out of Dodge. I had some good times there, can claim to have lived in Sandbanks (albeit for 2 months) and met my good mate Matt but the thought of that betting shop still sends shivers down my spine….

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Festival Trends

Another post, another plug.

It’s still not too late to get a copy of this years Festival Trends which includes our Ante-Post Guide and 4 from the Handicaps Sheet. A lot of our horses have come in for some good support over the last few days (none more so than our Grand Annual selection) which is good news as it  means that they’re probably running in the correct races for us and that they’re fancied by connections.

I’ve had my Lucky 15 on our 4 handicap horses and according to betfred I’ll be winning just short of a £million if they all oblige. There’s nothing wrong with dreaming!

The 6 day race declarations will be made over the coming days and we’ll be tweaking the guide as running plans become more evident. The final version for each day will be made when the 24 hour decs are announced.

The main guide is currently 129 pages long, covers all 26 races due to be run at the Festival and is just £19.95….

You can get your copy here>>>> http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Latest Cheltenham news

Dunguib took a step closer to even money when Sporting Bet eased the Irish super novice to 5/6 yesterday. It’s only a matter of time….

I obviously didn’t rub my lucky rabbits foot hard enough on Monday as within 10 minutes of writing my post the connections of Solwhit announced that he was doubtful for the Champion Hurdle. He’s said to be less than 50-50 to make the line-up…

Having written an email to Charlie Egerton wishing him luck in the Triumph Hurdle with Westlin Winds he replied yesterday to tell me everything was going according to plan with the horses preparations. He also invited me to have a look around his stables which was a nice touch and an invitation I hope to take him up on in the Spring. I think I’ll try the same trick with Henry Cecil and wish him luck with Twice Over’s Dubai World Cup challenge. I wouldn’t mind having a look around Warren Place…..

And finally, William Hill finally joined in with the rest of the bookmaking fraternity to offer non-runner/no bet on all ante-post Festival bets. And about time too…

Good luck,
Gavin.

1) Grand National…

Judging by the reaction of the bookmakers, the racing experts and plenty of punters I may be alone in saying this but as that’s never stopped me before here goes…Big Fella Thanks can’t possibly win the Grand National.

Quite how he got promoted to 8/1 favourite on the back of a win in a 2 1/2 mile handicap is beyond me especially when he did his level best to throw away the race. When you consider the length of the run-in from the final fence at Aintree, idling in front and staggering around like a drunken sailor throughout the final furlong are not the qualities I look for in a National favourite and anyone who’s followed his career will know it’s not the first time this horse has done it. On his first run over fences at Chepstow he was sent off the 4/6f  and had the race in the bag as he led over the last but on went the brakes and 3rd(!) place was where he ended up. 2 runs later and he was up to his old tricks again at Taunton as he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, this time as the 1/4 favourite. Yes he was 6th last year in the National but he was beaten 23 lengths in a very slowly run race that saw any number of runners still in with a chance 3 fences out.

I for one am not interested in his chances for the Grand National one little bit.

2) Hitting form…

Having gone the whole of last week without a bet, in order to keep my powder dry for Cheltenham, I allowed myself half an hour in Betfred’s on the way back from doing the weekly shop at Morrisons. What a good decision that turned out to be as first up I backed Quinz at Kempton, who won at 9/4 for my £40, and then followed it up with another £40 bet on Wogan, who won at 5/1. The slight dampener on the latter was reading in yesterday’s Racing Post that he is very unlikely to go to Cheltenham. As I have backed him for the Kim Muir at a big price on Betfair it looks as if I’ve done my money, again. At least I didn’t get involved with Possol though! After the shenanigans of last week there was no way I was going to back him this time around and after seeing him put in such a poor jumping display I reckon his not running in last weeks Racing Post Chase may have been a blessing in disguise. I may have lost my money ante-post on him but  I was saved from going in again on the day of the race.

Of course no trip to the bookies would be complete for me without backing a second and the £60 I left on Doctor David in the last at Doncaster seemed to restore a little order to the world when he finished runner-up.

It was good though to be hitting a bit of form just as the most important meeting of the year approaches.

3) Evens on Dunguib…

Reading through the last few Racing Post’s it looks like there are plenty of bookmakers out there who are willing to take Dunguib on in the first race of the Festival and I reckon his current odds-on quotes may begin to lengthen over the next week or so. I’m not suggesting that he’ll be available at anything like 6/4 but it’s not impossible that even money will be freely offered on the day of the race. It’s now looking likely that Get Me Out of Here will run in this race as his odds are shortening all the time which can only help anyone holding out for evens.

4) Dropping like flies….

We’re now into that period before any big meeting when you have to start rubbing your lucky rabbits foot, touching wood at every opportunity, avoid walking under any ladders and sprinkling your ante-post tickets with holy water. Yes, it’s that time of year when all the fancied, and not so fancied, runners start getting injured. Mille Chief, Punchestowns, Binocular (yes, no, maybe), Sublimity, Notre Pere (saves  all that travelling just to pull up), Secant Star, Mikhael D’Haguenet have all had reported problems recently and there’s bound to be plenty more before the meeting starts.

I’ve dodged the bullets so far but there’s still another week of nail biting anxiety to go.

5) Racehorse ownership isn’t high on the missus’s agenda….

Having seen that there were a few shares in Diktalina up for grabs I had speculated that I might take up the opportunity of getting involved with the partnership. My dreams of owning a share in a Cheltenham winner didn’t last long though as the missus was having none of it, mainly due to the fact she has her heart set on a holiday home down in Torbay. We’ve found a lovely little place in Paignton and with the down payment on that, our Easter family holiday to Vegas all paid for and my gambling funds for Cheltenham put aside the Priestley coffers are now nearly empty. I’ll just have to have a few quid on the mare (Diktalina) and cheer her on as if I owned her.

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Festival Trends

Our 4 for the Handicaps ante-post sheet is now ready for download.

We may struggle to match the amazing success of last year when we tipped Something Wells at 33/1 but we have got 4 horses who all share the same characteristics as that runner i.e. they all fit the trends, they all have good recent form and they’re all big prices.

The four are currently trading at 40/1, 20/1, 20/1 (subject of recent heavy support) and 25/1

It’s a cool £600,000 for a £1 Lucky 15. Something to dream about over the next week!

Some of our selections have alternative engagements but with most firms now betting non-runner no bet at least we’ll get our money back should they run elsewhere. It did happen last year when we tipped Horner Woods for the Jewson Novices Handicap only to see him run second to Cooldine in the Sun Alliance Chase instead. On that run I think I might have been right in saying he may be well handicapped off 10-00 in the Jewson!

Download the sheet from the Members Area : http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Trawling through all the stats and data from previous Cheltenham Festival’s while researching this years trends guide I found some pretty interesting, and some not so interesting, bits of trivia.

Here are a few little tit-bits you may (or may not) like to note…..

Breeding

- Montjeu has never sired the winner of a Cheltenham Festival race.
I don’t know how relevant this stat is but I read it somewhere while doing my research and thought it was quite interesting. Both Orzare and Capenallus, who are highly fancied for the Fred Winter handicap hurdle, are by Montjeu.

- All 17 winners of the Bumper race have been sired by 17 different horses.
A stat that probably highlights more that I have too much time on my hands rather than pointing us in the direction of the winner. But if you are persuaded by this particular trend you won’t want to back Drumbaloo, Blue Monster, Dare Me, Dunraven Storm, On His Own, Swing State or Tacern Times as their sires have already won the Bumper.

- French breds have a tremendous record in all Festival chases up to 2m5f.

There are currently six such races run at the festival and last year French Bred’s won 4 of the 6. But for Kalahari King being a short head 2nd and Voy Por Ustedes also filling that same finishing position they would have had  the clean sweep. In 2007 they won 5 of the 6 races.

The race that this is most evident in is the Festival Plate run on the Thursday. 6 of the last 10 winners have all been French Bred’s and the 4 years that they missed out they managed to provide the runner-up. Our big tip last year Something Wells was French as were the second and third home in the race

Handicaps

- In the two new novice handicaps (Fred Winter & Jewson Chase) all 10 winners took until at least their third run to win over the respective obstacles.

Using this trend you would have been able to dismiss the 2009 favourite for the Fred Winter Alexander Severus, the 2008 beaten favourite Ashkazar plus the 2009 Jewson Novice favourite Kia Kaha.

Looking to this years Festival, the first four in the betting for the Jewson Novice Chase all fail this trend (Hey Big Spender, The Hollinwell, Sunnyhill Boy and Rivaliste) as do well fancied runners, Open Day and Orzare, in the Fred Winter.

Trainers

We all know the Irish have a great record in the Bumper but it’s not until you delve a bit deeper than you see just how dominant there runners really are. Yes, they’ve won the race 14 out of the 17 times it’s been run but did you know that for the last 3 years they have had 21 of the first 24 horses home?

In 2007 there were 24 runners of which 50% were trained in Britain. The best we could manage was 6th.
In 2008 there were 23 runners and just under 50% (11 of the 23) were British trained. A little better, we managed 4th and 8th
but in 2009 we put up our worst defence ever with a 9th place the best we could muster. Admittedly we Brits had said enough-is-enough and accounted for only 1/3 of the field (8 of 24)

Still fancy Al Ferof from the Paul Nicholls stable?

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Nicky Henderson looks to have a very strong team this year and there’s bound to be plenty of support for his runners but in certain races he’s definitely worth taking on.

NIM Novices Hurdle. The second race on the Wednesday is run over 2m5f but don’t expect Mr Henderson’s charges to be challenging for honours as the runners bound up the hill. In his illustrious training career he has tried with 20 horses to win this race all without success. In fact since 1990 the best he has managed is 7th place. When you look at some of his runners in this time you start to wonder why he still bothers trying.

Last year Mad Max was the 6/1 fourth favourite who laboured home in 8th. Travado in 1992 was 15/2 and fourth favourite but could manage only 7th. Aigle d’Or in 2008 actually went off the 4/1 favourite but never gave his supporters any hope and finished a tailed off last of 13 finishers. In 2007 Duc De Regnierre was a 9/1 fifth favourite who could only manage 13th out of 14. In 2003 while most people were watching Hardy Eustace fight out an exciting finish with Pizzaro and Coolnagorna Nicky Henderson’s binoculars would have been focused further down the field as his Calling Brave came home stone cold last of the 17 finishers. You get the picture….

Finians Rainbow and Quantativeeasing are both very prominent in the betting for Nicky Henderson this year.

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They don’t come much bigger than trainer, Paul Nicholl’s and he’s got a formidable team assembled for this years Festival but beware his runner in the 4 mile NH chase on the Wednesday. He’s had just 1 placed runner from 12 starters, which in itself should set the alarm bells ringing, but when you consider that 9 of these 12 runners were in the top 5 of the betting it’s time to start a full scale panic!

With the 9/2 favourite in 2008, 2/1 favourite in 2007, 10/1 3rd favourite in 2006 and the 5/1 favourite in 2004 (Silver Birch) amongst his losers it should make you think twice about steaming into current 6/1 jolly Massosoit

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Form

 When looking at the handicap hurdles at the Festival it may sound obvious but it’s worth saying anyway, last time out winners have a fantastic record in these types of races. When looking through the fields of runners you’ll usually find only about 1 in 5 (20%) satisfy this stat but these runners have provided the winner of over 50% of all handicap hurdles run at the festival since 1994.

In the Coral Cup 6 of the last 7 winners were successful last time out as were the first three home in both 2008 & 2009. In 2007 there were only 2 last time out winners in a field of 28 runners but they still managed to provide the 10/1 winner with Burntoakboy. It’s the same story for the Pertemps Final where 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out. In 2009 just three horses lined up on the back of a win but out of a field of 24 they were still responsible for the 16/1 winner Kayf Aramis.

Betting

With such competitive racing and usual big fields it’s really not that surprising to find favourites having a terrible record in certain races. Only 2 of the last 17 Arkles have gone the way of the market leader, in the 4 mile NH Chase there hasn’t been an outright favourite win since 1992 and 6 of the last 9 winners of the Foxhunters returned 14/1 or bigger.

But, that’s not to say that fancied horses don’t regularly win certain races. Those looking for an outsider to back may want to steer clear of The Gold Cup as all of the last 9 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting, or the RyanAir chase where all 5 winners returned 6/1 or under, or the Neptune Novices Hurdle which has seen 22 of the last 24 winners come from the front 6 in the market.

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I hope you found something of interest in amongst that little lot and they help you pinpoint a winner or avoid backing a loser.

If it’s got you wanting more stats, figures and trends then our 2010 Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide is now available for purchase. All 26 races due to be run at the Festival are covered and it currently runs to 129 pages.

It’s just £19.95 which works out at less than £1 a race.

Our eagerly anticipated 4 for the Handicaps, which last year highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells, will be out on Monday.

Get your copy from here>>>2010 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TRENDS GUIDE

or if you are already a Festival Trends subscriber simply login to your account at…

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

You probably don’t need reminding that Cheltenham is now less than 2 weeks away and the countdown is well and truly underway but I thought I’d go ahead and tell you anyway.

What is does mean though is for the next 2 weeks I will be concentrating solely on the big meeting and bringing you all the latest news and hopefully highlighting a few winners.

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There were a couple of articles in yesterday’s Racing Post that caught my eye….

Firstly, in the Triumph Hurdle section that Pricewise had done there was a quote from Charlie Egerton who trains my big Triumph Hurdle hope Westlin Winds….

“He is being aimed at the Triumph. He’s very well and everything has gone to plan with his preperation. He would go on soft, but he’d be better on good ground. He’s been something of a forgotten horse, but his form is good. Ollie Greenall will ride.”

Which is good news for quite a few reasons;
1) I had been a bit worried that connections may have been considering the Fred Winter Handicap with him but that now looks unlikely
2) He hasn’t been out for a while but we now know it’s not because he’s injured.
3) If the going turns soft he’ll still run and if it firms up a bit he’ll have an even bigger chance.
4) The trainer, like me, thinks his form is good enough.

I actually emailed Charlie Egerton urging him to run Westlin Winds in the Triumph and not the Fred Winter and while I know it probably won’t have any affect on his decision such is my investment on the horse I didn’t think it could hurt!

Click here if you haven’t yet downloaded the completely free trends guide for the Triumph Hurdle >>>2010 Triumph Hurdle Guide
(There are no sign-up or card details required. This link takes you directly to the guide and it’s yours to keep)

The other bit in the Post that caught got my attention was a write-up about Diktalina’s owner and her being his last roll of the dice for his syndicate. If you’ve been reading my posts recently you’ll know I really like this horse and unlike Westlin Winds I hope she runs in the Fred Winter. By all accounts she will, which is good news, but the interesting bit in the article was that there are still 4 shares left in the horse.

Having visited the syndicate website it appears the shares are still available at £2000 for 5% + £120 month training fees. A bit steep but having had some luck on the poker tables recently it’s given me serious food for thought. A 1/20th share of a possible Cheltenham winner sounds tempting.

All I need to do now is persuade the missus. I’ll let you know how I get on…

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After mentioning bet365’s amazing Cheltenham offer in Monday’s post it seems other firms are now keen to get in on the act and start offering their own incentives to get you to bet with them. I’ll keep my eye out for you and bring you the best of the offers as they are announced.

Today it’s the turn of Paddy Power who will refund all losing bets (up to £200) in the Supreme Novices Hurdle if Dunguib wins the race.

This is another great concession that is likely to cost the firm upwards of a £1 million with Dunguib trading as one of the shortest prices at the whole meeting and most peoples idea of a banker. When the firm make offers like this it’s not hard to see why their profits have dropped by 15% in the last year.

In our trends guide we actually oppose the favourite in this race as he has a couple of minor trends to overcome but on all known form he’s obviously the one horse they all have to beat. Which means Paddy Powers offer is the perfect concession for me, and anyone else opposing Dunguib, as should Ireland’s highly exciting prospect win the race we’ll get our cash back on any losing bets (as long as they run!).

Now if  any firm out there wants to offer me money back on any seconds I back at Cheltenham then please let me know.

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Cheltenham Festival Top Jockey

A few stats…

Ruby Walsh has been the top jockey 4 of the last 6 years with 3, 3, 3 and 7 wins at the meeting.
Paul Nicholl’s has contributed to the winning jockeys total in 6 of the last 10 Festivals
The last time Tony McCoy was top jockey was in 1998 (5 wins)
11 of the last 12 top jockeys at the meeting rode 3 or more winners
The last time a jockey won the trophy having ridden just one winner was in 1982 (Jonjo O’Neill)

Interesting fact: Ruby Walsh has drawn a blank on 4 of the last 6 opening days of the meeting (he managed 1 winner last year)

With the mighty Paul Nicholl’s stable behind him and the added bonus of being the number 1 Irish jockey when any spare rides come up he looks almost certain, barring injury, to be crowned Top Jockey again this year. With 3 winners normally enough to land the title his four main rides of Master Minded, Quevega, Kauto Star and Bick Bucks may be enough to win it on their own. Add to that the fact he will probably ride in every race and he should record enough placings to ensure he wins if it ends up a tie for the most winners. Only Barry Geraghty looks able to muster a book of rides that could produce the 3 or more winners needed to challenge for the title but he doesn’t have a ride you would consider banker material.

The current odds of 4/7 may not appeal to everyone but for those of you who don’t mind backing the short ones it does look overpriced. I reckon he’s a 1/3 shot.

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I’ll be back tomorrow with news of my Cheltenham Trends which is 128 pages long, covers all 26 races and is only £19.95. You can get a copy here… Festival Trends 2010 Cheltenham Guide

Good luck,
Gavin.

When in a hole, stop digging!

It’s an often used cliche but one which we should all remember.

Having made Possol a very confident selection early on in the week for the Racing Post Chase it was annoying, to say the least, to see the trainer have other ideas and pull him out due to the ground. I changed to Miss Mitch who looked a fairly decent  alternative but when that one was also ruled out due to a late injury I really should have given up as the trends were now looking unreliable. Scratching around to try and make the trends fit I finally arrived at Piraya, a blow average chaser at best and a total rogue at worst. Another all too familiar dodgy run from that one probably gave me the result I deserved and an expensive lesson in ‘betting for the sake of it’.

I apologise to anyone who may have backed him and promise not to make the same mistake with the trends again. Sorry!

I have another horse for Cheltenham (or Aintree, or both!)….

The Racing Post Chase may have been a poor renewal this year but there is one horse worth taking from the race with an eye to future big handicaps. Private Be is now an 11yo but showed he is no hasbeen as he ran a cracker for most of the way before being outpaced from 3 out. This was his first try at 3 miles and will probably be his last as he patently didn’t stay the trip. A drop back to around 2m4f/2m5f  is needed and as he has shown excellent form in the past at both Cheltenham and Aintree I would imagine he’ll be aimed at some of the handicaps there over the next month or so. Going back through his form there are some really good runs to be seen and after some encouraging efforts this season I reckon he could land a big prize at big odds.

There is an awards ceremony where the winners are chosen correctly…

After the Hurt Locker cleared up at the Bafta’s, Lady Gaga at the Brits and Harry Hill come away empty handed at the TV Awards night it was beginning to look like the voting panels had all gone mad. Whatever next? Cheryl Cole doesn’t make the list for FHM’s sexiest female?

However, order has been restored in the world after last nights Professional Jockeys Association annual prize giving ceremony, better known as The Lesters, where the correct winners were rewarded with their prizes. Who could argue with Tony McCoy being given best NH ride for Wichita Lineman at last years Cheltenham Festival? or being voted Jump Jockey of the Year? Ryan Moore, Flat Jockey of the Year? Hayley Turner, Lady Jockey of the Year? Mick Kinane, International Jockey of the Year? Not me.

But my favourite was Tom Queally winning the Flat Ride of the Year for Midday at the Breeders Cup. Last year saw him emerge as a top flight jockey, riding for a famous stable in all the big races and this fantastic ride was the highlight of the season for me. The tactical and pace awareness he showed in the race was sublime and he was a very worthy winner of the award. I doubt he’ll be getting  jocked off in favour of Frank Spencer in next years St Leger!

Betfair is good but is not always the best bet….

One of the many things Betfair has helped us punters with is that it’s given the old school bookies the kick up the backside they needed to start offering a bit more value to their customers. For too many years the big bookmaking firms offered very little or no value at all safe in the knowledge that if you didn’t like it, tough. Where else were you going to go?

But since Betfair burst onto the scene, and there was somewhere else to go, they’ve had to do a fair bit of adjusting to try and stay competitive. Signup bonuses, enhanced place terms, money back offers etc. are all the norm now but Bet365 have raised the bar again with what has to be the finest ante-post offer ever made.

Fully 2 weeks before the Cheltenham Festival they are offering non-runner / money back AND guaranteed odds on all their Cheltenham markets!

I have never seen guaranteed odds on an ante-post market before and the money back offer is a MAJOR concession. Grab all the big prices about all your Festival runners now safe in the knowledge your money will be returned if yor horse doesn’t show up. If you have any ante-post fancies for Cheltenham you just have to back them with bet365.

It will be interesting to see if any other firms decide to follow their lead

Being infront of a laptop for 16 straight hours isn’t good for you…

Having spent all of yesterday morning, afternoon and evening putting the finishing touches to this years Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide (now on sale here) I foolishly decided to play some late night/early morning poker. Another good run of cards and 4 hours later I finally shut my laptop having spent 16 hours staring at an illuminated 18 inch screen with just a few call-of-nature breaks and 10 minutes playing G1 Jockey on the Wii with Dylan.

Eye strain, headaches, numb bum, unhealthy food, child neglect and constant nagging from the missus were just a few side affects of my marathon compute and after finishing this post I’m off out to get some fresh air down the park with my son. And no poker tonight!

……….well maybe just a quick turbo tournament.

Good luck,
Gavin.

With the weights for the Cheltenham handicaps published today I’m going to have a very busy weekend sifting through the hundreds of entries for our Trends Guide which is out on Monday. There are however a few horses I’ve noted over the last month or so which I was hoping would get an entry and I’ll give you them further down the post.

Meydan

But first I’d just like to pass on something that I have been noticing since Meydan first opened its doors for racing in January. I don’t know whether anyone’s been following the racing there or seen the results but Saeed Bin Suroor and Mike De Kock seem to be cleaning up at every meeting. Take for instance last nights meeting where they won 6 of the 8 races staged. So it got me to thinking, can we make any money out of it?

So far Meydan have raced 7 meetings (5 Thursday’s and 2 Fridays) starting on January 28th and between the two stables they have won 29 of the 53 races staged. A staggering 54.7%. The breakdown for the two stables look like this…

28th Jan: Suroor 1 winner De Kock 2 winners (3 of 7 races staged)
4th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 3 (6/8)
5th Feb: Suroor 2 De Kock 0 (2/8)
11th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 1 (4/8)
18th Feb: Suroor 4 De Kock 2 (6/7)
19th Feb: Suroor 2 De Kock 0 (2/7)
25th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 3 (6/8)

Totals: Suroor 18 De Kock 11

Which looks highly impressive but could you have made money from just backing them blind?

Well, for those 18 winners Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 91 runners (an average of 1.71 runners per race) at odds ranging from 4/5 - 50/1 and has a level stakes profit of over £58!

Mike De Kock on the other hand has sent out 61 runners (av. 1.1 runners per race) for his 11 winners at odds ranging from10/11 - 8/1 and has a level stakes loss of -£29!

But the strange thing is that for the Friday meetings Mike de Kock has yet to win a race and Saeed Bin Suroor has won only 4 of the 15 races. So simply concentrating on the Thursday meetings we see revised figures for the two trainers as….

From the 38 races staged on a Thursday at Meydan, Bin Suroor has won 14 and de Kock 11 (the pair won 65.8% of all races run)

To get those 14 winners Suroor ran 71 runners and retains a level stakes profit of £56

De Kock ran 45 horses for his 11 winners but still loses -£13.

So by backing their horses blindly on a Thursday at Meydan you would have made a nice profit and had plenty of winners but, and it’s a big but, take out Suroor’s 50/1 outsider in the Dubai Guineas and things don’t look quite so rosy.

Yes, they win loads of races but with multiple entries in most contests unfortunately it doesn’t look like proving a profitable system. Oh well, worth a try but the search for the perfect system continues…..

Cheltenham Handicaps

There are a number of horses in my notebook waiting to be backed in handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival. I’ve spent the morning seeing if my notes match the plans of their trainers and what entries have been made for them. Here’s how that worked out….

(Please be aware that these may or may not be horses eventually chosen in my trends guide. These are purely personal opinions based solely on form and what I’ve seen this season)

Oldrik
Ran a good race at Cheltenham and a cracking race in the totesport hurdle last weekend. He looks to me like a horse wanting further than 2 miles and I thought something like the Coral Cup would be ideal. His name didn’t appear in that list but he has entries in both the County Hurdle and The Martin Pipe Conditional jockeys handicap. With the latter being over 2m 4f that would seem ideal to me and I’ll be backing it for that one with a decent each way bet. He’s 20/1 with Hills but I think I’ll be able to get better than that when the other firms open up so I’ll wait for 33’s. He’s 33’s with Corals for the County hurdle so I’ll have a little bit on that too as a saver.

I’m So Lucky
I followed him throughout his novice campaign and he was a big trends selection at Aintree last year but ran no race at all. He was disappointing in his first run this season but next time out was looking all over the winner when being brought down at Cheltenham. I wasn’t sure what distance would be best for him (2m-2m4f) and it seems David Pipe is undecided too as he has entered him for both the Grand Annual (2 miles) and the  Festival Plate Handicap (2m5f). He’s top priced 20/1 for each of the races so a little bit for both will do until firm plans are made.

Le Burf
He runs in the Racing Post Chase tomorrow but has it to do from the bottom of the weights. However I really fancy him for the Festival Plate as he was in the process of running very well in last years race before falling and has been doing ok on the whole this season. Like a lot of horses he’s obviously being trained with Cheltenham in mind and a repeat run in the Festival Plate looks the most obvious route for him. However, he’s been running over 3 miles in his last few outings and has an alternative entry in the William Hill Handicap Chase. I’ll go with my instincts and take the 40’s with Ladbrokes for the Festival Plate.

Ashkazar
This season he’s looked like a horse being laid out for a big prize at the Festival and all looks to be going to plan as his handicap rating has plumetted all season. He’s now just 1lb higher than when running 2nd in the 2008 Fred Winter Handicap and has run promisingly in his last two races. He’s been entered in three races and it’s difficult to second guess the Pipe stable but judging by William Hills betting they’re thinking along the same lines as me and make him just 16/1 for the Martin Pipe Handicap (while offering 33/1 for the Pertemps and 40/1 for the Coral Cup)

Diktalina
I like this horse a lot and will be wading into her for the Fred Winter Novices handicap as I think she’s not quite up to the Triumph Hurdle standard and will no doubt run here instead. It’s not surprising to see Open Day as the favourite for this race after 2 very good recent runs but Diktalina slammed that one by 9 lengths and will be no worse off at the weights come the race. She’s 14’s with Hills but I’m sure I’ll be able to get 20’s or better when more firms are betting on the race and a big bet is forthcoming.

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Trends

I did the trends for the Racing Post Chase early in the week and one horse stood out a mile and was the most confident trends choice in a long time. Unfortunately the trainer had other ideas and even though he had trained the horse all season with this race in mind soft ground apparently wasn’t an option and he doesn’t run. Worst of all the trainer didn’t bother telling anyone this until very late in the day and well after the 5 day declarations were announced. I’m sorry to anyone who followed me and backed him ante-post.

I’ve re-done the application of the trends and although there is no outstanding candidate now I’m still pretty confident of a good run from the selection.

You can download the guide for FREE  here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/freeguide/theracingpostchase.pdf   
(This is a direct link and no signup/payment etc. is required)

I’ve also got the FREE guide for the Triumph Hurdle here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/freeguide/chelt2010triumph.pdf
(Again a direct link with no signup/payment etc. required)

And lastly….

The Cheltenham 2010 Trends Guide will be out on Monday from 5pm. You can pre-order your copy now at…. Festival Trends 2010 Cheltenham
where there’s a 5 Race Ante-Post guide  now available to download for all subscribers.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Following on from a couple of posts I did at the end of last year I thought I’d bring you up to date with what I’ve been up to and how my lucks been over the past 2 months….

There wasn’t too much to report over Christmas although I do now have a very nice looking ante-post voucher on Captain Cee Bee at 25/1 for the Arkle. I won’t win a massive amount if he should prevail at Cheltenham but it will be nice to actually have a big priced ante-post winner as I can’t remember having too many of those in my time. Usually it’s 25/1 that any horse I back actually lines up in the race so there’s still plenty of time for the bet to go belly up. With an ante-post portfolio of Westlin Winds in the Triumph (20/1), Solwhit for the Champion Hurdle (6/1) and Big Zeb for the Queen Mother (14’s) I’m hopeful of getting at least one to the post with a chance of a pickup.

A nice bet on Kauto Star in the King George should have paid for Christmas but I lost it all back on the Welsh National when I chose the wrong Hobbs horse and backed Kornati Kid. At least one trends reader was happy though as he combined the horses in our ratings to get the tricast up. Well done Sir! I’m quite good at getting the second horse right in a Tricast but I do tend to struggle to find the two horses either side.

I can’t recall having too many bets through the first part of January due to work and the weather but I have no doubt I managed to back a few more seconds in the period.  One thing I do remember though is noting a horse on the all-weather who ran a lot better than his jockey had us believe that day. All I had to do now was wait for him to run again in a handicap. I ended up waiting over a month for him and, as you will find out later, it very nearly paid off. It won’t take a brain surgeon, a quantam physicist or a rocket scientist to work out where he finished.

Undoubtedly though, the highlight of the betting month was Mamlook finally winning the big handicap he had always threatened to win. A nice each way bet at 12/1 more than covered all previous losses on the horse, paid for Christmas and got my New Years wish list off to a flyer. He doesn’t really like Cheltenham and there aren’t any races at his optimum trip run at the Festival so I’ll be having only a small bet on him if he runs there but Aintree, well that’s a different matter. And then on to the Chester Cup……

With work out of the way for another season I jumped on the first available plane to Vegas for 5 days of R & R (usually Roulette and Racing). As I said last week I kept off the roulette tables on the whole and periodically played profitable poker. With long sessions playing low stake slot machines with my dad and the missus it was a great holiday and financially not too damaging. So much so I’m off back to do it all again in late March.

Having three months off from the poker tables seems to have sharpened up my game a bit and I’ve been having some very good results on the felt recently. I’m making enough money at the cards to nearly compensate for my losses on the horses. Nearly!

I took the family down to Devon last weekend and having dumped my son and the missus at her friends I headed straight for the casino in Torquay for the Friday night poker tournament. A good run of cards, some good play and bit of good fortune later I made the final table with a decent pile of chips. A poor run of cards, some poor play and a bit of bad fortune later I was on my way home with 6th place prizemoney. A profitable night though and again I managed to stay away from the roulette meaning I took all of my winnings home with me.

On the Saturday I called in on my magician friend Zak who has just opened a barbers shop called Capones in Torquay. A nice bacon butty, a few hands of poker in between haircuts and a chance to catchup was a great start to the day. Incidentally if anyone needs a first class, award winning close-up magician for a wedding, birthday, corporate do or any other get together then Zak’s your man. Or if you’re in Torquay and need a haircut then Zak’s still your man.

Check out his website here…. http://zakstonemagic.com/default.aspx

In the afternoon I decided to do something I hadn’t done for a very long time (no, not back a winner) but spend the afternoon with my brother in the bookies. We decided to visit the betting shop that we owned from 1990-2002 situated just outside Paignton and now owned by Ladbrokes. It didn’t take long for my brother’s claim that it is his ‘lucky shop’ to be disproved. We made it in time for the 2pm race to watch Matt’s horse Night Orbit run but it was another outsider I was interested in backing. My brother was on Quinz each way and it was particularly galling for him to see it finish 5th as it was my horse The Real Deal who ran it out of the frame. 1-0 to Gavin and a nice return on my £20ew.

It felt a little weird to be in our old shop again as nothings changed that much since the time we had it. The same old punters are still betting the same stakes on the same bets they did 20 years ago which is some feat as most of our punters were in their nineties then!

Over to Ayr for the 2.15 and we both thought it worth taking Long Run on as 2 miles seemed a little short for him. I think he’d probably have beaten the rest if the race had been over any distance from 5f - 4 miles such was his superior class and my £20 on Take the Breeze was probably the worst bet I made all day. Back to Newbury and the big race of the day. Ladbrokes were betting without the supposed good thing Denman and offering 5/1 Niche Market each way at 1/4 odds 1-2. I announced to the whole shop, that’s me, my brother, Interline Alan and KP (we used to have nicknames for all our regular customers. Some less flattering than others! The Bald Eagle, Gentleman Jim, Big Bad Bob, The Smellies were just a few) that this was as near an each way certainty as you could get. I had £40ew myself and from 3 fences home repeatedly cursed that I was an idiot not to have backed it at 25’s with Denman included. The profanities continued all the way up the run in and didn’t stop even when he was collared on the line as I then simply changed tack and started moaning that I couldn’t believe he had been caught. Some people are never happy. Oh well, at least it’s another second for my collection.

This seemed to set the tone for the next hour as I then proceeded to complete a full set of the top 3 punter frustrations…

Number 1) Your Horse Finishes Second
In the space of half an hour I had Mafeking (16/1 2nd), Kristofferson (12/1 2nd) and Autumn Blades (13/8 2nd).

 Number 2) Your horse finishes 5th in a big field Handicap
Having noted his run at Cheltenham last time out I had £20ew at 50/1 on Oldrik in the Totesport hurdle. Backing 5th in a big field handicap feels just as frustrating as backing a second win only and the fact that it was Mamlook that denied me a nice each way payout didn’t help my mood. The one consolation I’m taking from the race is that he ran a great trial for the Coral Cup. As soon as the weights are published I will be having a very tasty bet on Oldrik. He’s followed a similar path to a previous Hobbs Coral Cup winner Monkerhostin and should be a decent price.

Number 3) Your horse wins but you’ve changed your mind and backed something else 
In the 3.20 Warwick I was all set to back Piraya but convinced myself that he was here simply as a prep for the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in a fortnights time. So I went with the other Pipe runner in the race Tamarinbleu as I figured if the trainer was going to win the race it would be with this one. Piraya may still win the Racing Post Chase but one things for sure, Tamarinbleu wasn’t Pipe’s main hope for the Totesport 0800 221 221 Handicap Chase.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going…..straight to the cashpoint.

A few more losing bets to pass the time, a few spins on the virtual roulette, a coke, a packet of Mars Planets and it was time for the race I had been waiting all day for. The 4.40 Lingfield. Never mind anything that had happened during this afternoon I had the bet to get my head in front and bring Ladbrokes Goodrington branch to their knees. I’d waited over a month for Play Up Pompey to return to handicap company and here he was trading at 16/1, he was laid out for the race and Richard Kingscote was as strong a jockey you could hope for in the absence of the mighty Fallon. £100 ew at 16/1 was my bet and I was as confident of a pickup as Tiger Woods, John Terry and Ashley Cole on a Friday night out in Cardiff.

He travelled supremely, the jockey gave him a peach of a ride, the gaps appeared just at the right time and he stormed down the straight…BUT HE STILL GOT BEAT. You cannot be serious! I don’t believe it! Bloody second again! (If the manageress of the Ladbrokes is reading this then many apologies for throwing the pen and the foul language but I really, really can’t take many more of these seconds.)

That was about as much as I could take and after picking up the place money it was time to go. I’d finished in front but even while tucking into my sausage, chips and beans later that night at my other brothers house (and my place of residence for the weekend) I still wouldn’t let it go. I’m sure one day when all the planets have aligned, the Gods have finally forgiven me whatever sins I committed against and I’m down to my last few marbles then all my seconds will turn into winners but until such time, I’m destined to be the nearly man.

Oh well, at least in this day and age there’s always online poker! And so it was ,while watching The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy on some obscure Sky satellite channel, I battled my way through 3567 players in a $10 tournament. Unfortunately there were still 53 players still to conquer when I finally got knocked out at 3.30am on the Sunday but 54th place was worth a healthy $160 (or about $23 an hour). If I could guarantee $23 an hour playing poker everyday I’d never work again.

Valentines Day. I hate it. All my winnings went on flowers, cards and chocolates and for what? I’m not even allowed to play poker in the night, instead I have to watch some rom-com chick flick. Arrrrrrrrrgh! At least it’s only once a year.

Back home in Cardiff there weren’t any more bets on the horses during the week but I was back playing poker and knocking on the door for a big payout. I spent most of the week compiling the trends guides for Cheltenham and unearthing a few decent looking bets for the Festival. I’m as confident as I’ve ever been of my ante-post portfolio. Roll on Cheltenham I say.

We decided to head back down to Devon for the weekend and spent a couple of days with my mum. On Saturday I had £50 on Diktalina but covered myself with a £20 straight forecast on Me Voici to beat her. Another second but at least the right one did the business. My other bets were less successful with Ashkatar looking like he’s being laid out for some race soon (maybe the Imperial Cup), Planet of Sound falling and Le Beau Bai being firmly put in his place in the Blue Square Chase. We spent the afternoon as ‘grockles’ (tourists) in Paignton visiting the many gift shops and amusement arcades and having fish and chips on the sea front. Incidentally, in one of the arcades while my son was busy playing the 10p horse-racing game I had £5 in an Elvis fruit machine. I wasn’t too sure what was going on but after a few goes I hit the jackpot. Thinking I’d just won £25 I was quite chuffed with myself but as it turned out it was £250 and I was now VERY chuffed with myself. Long live the King!

Sunday we were back home and I was back on pokerstars. Half past 5 in the morning on Monday and I was still on pokerstars but after 6 1/2 hours of play I was finally knocked out in third place for a whopping $3897. With over $5k for the runner-up it was one time I woudn’t have minded being second but I’m certainly not complaining and my punting war chest is now ready for Cheltenham.

I spent most of Monday in bed catching up on my sleep but I finally surfaced mid afternoon to do the trends for The Racing Post Chase on Saturday. This is a very strong trends race and one horse stands out by a mile. I’ll give out the guide and the horse on Saturday but if you’ve already signed up for Cheltenham it’s ready for download NOW in the Members Area.

And that’s just about it. Play Up Pompey runs in a seller tomorrow at Lingfield but according to the official ratings he has it all to do. I’ll wait for him to return to handicap company before getting involved again. As soon as the Cheltenham handicap entries are announced (within the next week I think) I’ll be backing Oldrik in the Coral Cup, Diktalina in the Fred Winter and maybe a small bet on Ashkazar in the County hurdle. And tonight I’ll be back on my laptop playing poker. Life is good…

Gavin.

I’m down in Devon again enjoying the sunshine and visiting the family so it’s a quick post until I get back home tomorrow. I’ve got 3 horses I’m backing this afternoon. So expect the usual just out of the frame each way bets and seconds from…….

2.45 Ascot

It seems quite amazing that this day last year Ashkazar was winning the Kingwell Hurdle from Whiteoak and Punjabi when here he is today rated just 138 for this handicap. What a difference 12 months make! He started this season as a novice chaser but after a win and a heavy defeat at Cheltenham he has gone back hurdling. 5 poor runs have seen his rating plummet from 155 to that mark of 138 and as he always seems to find his form at around this time of year I’ll be having a small each way bet at Betfreds 25/1.

3.15 Ascot

An interesting 6 horse race with little between 5 of the runners according to official ratings. I think it would be fair to say that Herecomesthetruth has his own ideas about the game and his jumping is still suspect so I’ll pass him over in favour of Planet of Sound who hasn’t been seen since losing to Alberta’s Run last November. A 3 length defeat to that rival when giving 6lb should make it quite interesting today off level weights and as he has a good record fresh I’ll be taking the 9/4 on this one.

1.55 Haydock

Should Haydock pass the inspection my best bet of the day runs in the first. She’s a horse I’ve been following since running 4th to my big Triumph Hurde hope Westlin Winds and looks an improving hurdler. Diktalina has won her last two starts on testing ground and the conditions today should hold no fear for her. The form of her easy defeat of Open Day took another boost yesterday when that one slammed a decent looking field of juveniles to follow up his Market Rasen win and make it two from two since running into the selection. Obviously the favourite Me Voici is the one to beat having won a Grade 1 race last time out by 10 lengths from Sang Bleu but I’m not sure that’s the strongest juvenile form around and I’m happy to take him on. It looks unlikely I’ll be able to get the 7/1 that was in the Racing Post tissue prices but  the 5/1 at William Hill’s is ok.

Don’t forget to feel free to back, lay or ignore them!

Good luck whatever you decide to do,
Gavin.

at last!

I had hoped to be back writing much sooner than this but unfortunately during my Winter absence the site suffered a severe cyber attack.

I had to call in the experts who look to have done a good job of clearing the nasties up and sorting the site out. Nag3 has now been given me a clean bill of health meaning I can get down to business.

It’s been a while since I last wrote on the blog and, as you can imagine, quite a bit has happened to me since then. I finished the calendars in the middle of last month and, thanks mainly to Mamlook finally winning a big handicap at very generous odds, I nipped off to Vegas for a week with my dad and the missus.

We had one of our best Vegas holidays ever and actually came back with some dollars (a real rarity for all of us!). Any one lucky enough to get to Sin City should try out the Bellagio Cafe to the side of the ornamental indoor garden. Without doubt the best Creme Brulee ever! I managed to stay away from the roulette wheel for the majority of the holiday and concentrated on the poker which looks like being the blueprint for all future visits there. One thing that was really apparent was just how much America has been affected by the recession. I have never seen Vegas as quiet in all of the 10 years I’ve been visiting. I only added to the cities and the Treasury’s misery by bringing my dollars back with me! 

Since returning home my luck has reverted to being the same as ever i.e. more seconds than winners, with last Saturday being a perfect example. I was down in Paignton to catch up with family and friends and spent the afternoon in my old betting shop in Goodrington along with my brother Gary. I’ll give you a blow by blow account of those betting activties in Monday’s post when I’ll do another recap similar to those I did before Christmas. Again I was saved by the poker having made the money in a tournament at the local casino and on Pokerstars the following night.

But the big news and the project that has taken up the majority of my time since finishing work has been this years Festival Trends Cheltenham Guide. I’ve nearly completed the 26 race, 180 page look at the big meeting and once the final trials take place at the Kempton meeting on 27th February it will be ready for download.

I have however done a FREE look at the Triumph Hurdle and you can get a copy by simply clicking below. (No signups just straight to the Guide)…………

2010 Triumph Hurdle Trends Guide

We’ve gone with a 20/1 shot who I’m very confident of a big run from.

I’ve also done an Ante-Post guide for the 6 feature races of the meeting (Triumph, Champion, World Hurdle, Gold Cup, Queen Mother and Ryanair Chases) and this is also ready for download now. It is available to all subscribers and features a 100/1 shot running in one of the races. Next week we’ll be adding an exclusive members only Trends Guide for the Racing Post Chase at Kempton.

You can pre-order your copy of the 2010 Cheltenham Guide and receive the Ante-Post guide from the link below….

Cheltenham 2010 Festival Trends

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I’ll be back on Saturday for a look at the racing and news of my plans for the blog this year.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Dear Readers,

Due to various reasons I’ll be taking a break from blog writing for the forseeable future.
I’m hoping to be back in time for the Cheltenham Festival.

To tie up a few loose ends;

The £100 to a Grand Challenge winner was Mikey S from Kings Lynn and his cheque for £250 has already been received (and spent!).

It’s not too late to enter the Xmas Quiz as I’ll extend the entry date until 1st January. You should know by then all 3 results for the Festival Trends races and whether you feel it’s worth entering or not! Predictably our first runner finished 2nd (after I discarded the wrong one, AGAIN!) but at 8/1 it gives us a nice start. Next up is Kauto Star……..

Before I go I’ll leave you with my 3 wishes for Xmas and the New Year…

1) Mamlook to win a big handicap. It’s running at Ascot on Saturday so that will do nicely but failing that a win at either Cheltenham or Aintree or even the Cesarewitch will do.

2) Kieran Fallon to win the 2010 Jockeys Championship.

3) Henry Cecil to win a 2010 Classic (or two).

Not too much to ask but any one of the three would do.

————–

And finally, I’d like to wish you all a Merry Xmas and a prosperous New Year.

Good luck,
Gavin.

For anyone who fancies a bit of fun to pass the time away I’ve come up with a little quiz for Xmas with a few prizes for the winners.

10 Gambling/Sport related Questions…..

1) Which were the only two Aiden O’Brien horses to finish in front of Sea The Stars?

2) At what height does a Pony become a Horse?

3) In the latest remake of the James Bond (Daniel Craig) film Casino Royale what was Bond’s final winning poker hand?

4) In the Grand National, what number fence is Bechers Brook?

5) On a single-zero Roulette wheel, which two numbers are either side of the Zero?

6) Which 3 Las Vegas casinos do George Clooney and co. plan to rob in the remake of the film Oceans 11?

7)  What were the six numbers Derren Brown ’successfully’ predicted for the National Lottery on live TV?

8] What is the next number in the sequence….

2004/05 = 95
2005/06 = 91
2006/07 = 89
2007/08 = 87
2008/09 = ?

9) The Columbia Pictures 2008 film ‘21′ about Blackjack card counting was based on which best selling book?

And finally to see who has been paying attention…

10) Who is my favourite racehorse trainer on the flat?

The quiz is open to everyone and is free to enter.

The Prizes….

1st Prize - £5ew Patent on our 3 Ante-Post Festival Trends horses PLUS 1 years free subscription to Festival Trends PLUS Racing Post 2010 Calendar

2nd Prize - £1ew Patent on our 3 Ante-Post Festival Trends horses PLUS Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide PLUS Ch.4 Racing Diary

3rd Prize - Racing Post 2010 Calendar

4th and 5th Prize - Ch. 4 Racing Diary

Answers to xmasquiz@nag-nag-nag.co.uk by Noon December 20th.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Things have been going well so far this week and hopefully I can continue my run of good fortune into Saturday’s racing. You can read all about it on Monday but until then here are 4 horses that I’ll be backing…….

1.40 Wetherby…
I’m going to take a chance on a previously decent hurdler who couldn’t translate his form to chasing last season but comes here looking very well handicapped. The last time Degas Art ran in a handicap hurdle he was rated 144 whereas he runs here off 123. I’m hoping Howard Johnson has managed to get him back to something like his best so he can take advantage of this lenient looking mark.

2.25 Sandown.
Only 5 runners and no Master Minded but what a cracking race we still have in store. I’m really torn between two and it should be a no bet but you’ve probably worked out already that that isn’t my style! So who’s it going to be? After much debating I’ve decided to go against one of my favourite horses Well Chief to side with Big Zeb. The Irish trained 8yo has looked the real deal when completing the course and as long as his jumping holds up over these tough fences he should be good enough to account for this top class field.

3.00 Sandown.
You may have read in my post on Tuesday that I really fancied Gaspara in a handicap hurdle at Taunton last week. She ran badly then but I’m prepared to give her one more chance because she just looks too well handicapped at present. The last time she ran off a rating anywhere near this low she won a handicap by 6 lengths at the track on heavy ground. She’ll do for me at around 12/1

3.30 Sandown.
The one I like the look of here is the bottom weight Lorum Leader who won a staying handicap very nicely in heavy going at Market Rasen last time out. The trainers horses are in excellent form at present and I’m hoping this one can keep the good run going.

Which should make a nice Lucky 15……

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Festival Trends…

We’re currently working hard to produce a 3 race Ante-Post Xmas Guide on the Boylesports Chase, King George and Welsh Grand National. Hopefully it will be available from next Wednesday.

———

£100 to a Grand Challenge….

We’re now down to just 3 contestants after Denman’s win under top-weight last Saturday.
Due to work commitments I haven’t been able to boost the prizefund in recent weeks but, on the plus side, I haven’t managed to lose much of it either! I think the best thing to do is keep the fund at its present level which guarantees the winner will get £250 and should make an enjoyable Christmas for one lucky reader.

For the next round it’s football time and you need to decide whether Liverpool will score more or less than 1.5 goals in their Champions League game vs Fiorentina. Entries by 6pm Wednesday 9th December to the usual email address.

——–

And finally….

If you’re looking for some more horse race comment and opinion then there’s now a new ‘kid’ on the block.

Kev Lane who does the TTS selections for me and loads them into the ’bot has just started up his own blog which you can read by clicking on the link below….

www.racehorsewhisperer.co.uk

Good luck,
Gavin.

The last you heard I had just backed two winners from two on a greedy Monday afternoon mission…

I then managed to go two whole days without having a bet, which is probably some kind of record for me, and given my luck last week it was also  the most profitable two days punting I managed to do.

Thursday…
Of course this abstinence was never going to last and after two days of keeping my powder dry it was time to, erm, get it wet again. First up was £20 on Googoobarabajagal which is about as easy to spell as it is to pronounce. It took me longer to write the slip out than it did to realise that he isn’t the most genuine of horses, giving the race away close home and filling the customary spot of any horse I back, second.
As if to prove a point I left £20ew on Prince Du Beury for the handicap hurdle later on the card and he too threw the race away to give me another second for my collection. I really wish I didn’t back so many seconds.
With my current night time viewing consisting of watching the jungle antics of some not so well known celebrities I was tempted to back Get Me Out of Here in the 3.15 but I decided doing these type of coincidence bets is for suckers. Obviously even suckers have better luck than me as it romped home at 4/1.
My final bet of the day was £20ew on David Pipe’s Gaspara in the handicap hurdle at Taunton. I thought she’d appreciate the drop in class along with her drop in the official ratings and thought she was a certainty for the frame. She didn’t, she didn’t and she wasn’t. At least though it broke my run of seconds. The moral of the post: be careful what you wish for!

Friday….
A couple of decent races at Newbury was enough to tempt me into the bookies during a quick lunch break. 3 x £20ew singles and a £2ew Patent on Bobs Dream, Ainama and Song of Songs. A 3rd, a 4th (paid first 3) and a fifth (paid first 4). Sometimes I really wish I could back more seconds.

On my way home from work I popped into Corals for a ‘fun’ coincidence bet that I noticed was running. £10 ew on The Two G’s in Wolverhamptons 8.20 purely because my brother and I named our betting shops Gee Gee’s Turf Accountants. That proved about as much fun as a trip to the dentist for root canal work and just goes to prove that those kind of bets are for suckers.

On to Saturday…
As I wrote in my post on Saturday this was a historic day for me a few years ago and one that paid for the families best ever trip to Las Vegas. 12 days of luxury and successful punting. My betting during that holiday even gained the attention of the casino pit-boss who proceeded to comp us all free food and drink for our holiday, show tickets to see the magician Lance Burton and 3 nights free accommodation later that year. It was only the Circus Circus but it made me feel like a high roller and it’s the one and only time I’ve come back from Vegas winning. Happy days…

But it’s no use living on one’s memories and there was work to be done to try and repeat the feat. I’d studied the form the night before and come up with my 5 horses. I put exactly the same bet on as I did 3 years ago in exactly the same Betfred shop as I placed my winning wager. Everything was set for a good day.

Who ever first said ‘lightning never strikes twice’ is a smart arse and……. no one likes a smart arse!

What a terrible set of results. Big Bucks was very impressive, Pasco ran well but wasn’t quite good enough, Binocular was simply awful while Killyglen was dissappointing and Horner Wells didn’t seem to appreciate the soft ground. I also had £20ew on Kornati Kid at 33/1 to round off a miserable day.

There was only one thing for it, £60 on Conduit in the Japan Cup. Darn.

There was only two things for it, try my luck on Pokerstars. I entered the $50 rebuy and by the time the tournament entered the final stages I had built up a nice pile of chips. Just 5 places off the money disaster struck when I lost all my chips running my pair of kings into a pair of aces. How did it feel? About the same as having £50ew on a 33/1 shot each way in a big field handicap hurdle and seeing it make a complete horlicks of the last flight before finishing an unlucky 5th. Double darn….

There was only three things for it….go to bed.

Sunday….
My confidence was at rock bottom but I had a horse to get me out of trouble, Washington Irving. Last year Graham Wylie bought him out of Aidan O’Brien’s stable for £300,000 which is a sizeable chunk of cash to pay for a horse to run over hurdles. He was a bit disappointing on the flat although he had managed to finish 5th in New Approach’s Derby. This switch to hurdling in a poor race looked the perfect introduction and I was tempted to have an even £400 to get my money back. Of course I bottled it and settled for an even £100. Never in any doubt it bolted up and was probably the easiest winner this National Hunt season. It was nice to have backed a winner but I was annoyed with myself for not holding my nerve. Oh and Mr Wylie won £3082 for his troubles, only another £296,918 to get his money back. With the Supreme Novices Hurdle being worth £68k to the winner he’s certainly got his work cut out making that investment pay. He must have an understanding wife. I wish I had £300,000 to buy a horse with (and an understanding wife!)….

Monday….
For the third Monday in a row I had a bet, which tells you a lot about me as a punter. £50 on Pipe Banner in the 3.20 Fakenham. It duly obliged and gave Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty 4 winners on the card and confirmed him as the most in-form trainer in the country. I wish I was the most in-form punter in the country….

I’ll be back next week for the latest gripping installment of My Punting Woes…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

As I promised in my last post I’ve dug out the photocopy of my greatest punting win which occurred on the Hennessey Card 3 years ago. I’d never backed 5 winners in the same bet before this and I’ve never been able to do it again since either, although it’s not for the want of trying!

5 winners with my old chum Straw Bear the last of the bunch.

15/8 Saintsaire, 15/8 Inglis Drever, 10/1 State of Play, 10/3 Neptune Collonges and Evens Straw Bear for a win of just over £22,000

And the cheque…

One word of advice; If you are ever lucky enough to win a decent amount of money from a bet always take payment by cheque and photocopy it along with a copy of the betting slip. It’s tempting to be paid out in cash but for tax purposes it can be a nightmare. I know this from experience as when I had the betting shops a fair few years ago I won a sizeable amount on a bet and naively took payment in cash. The problems I had from the Tax Office and the investigations they undertook because of this were something I don’t ever want to go through again. A lesson learned the hard way!

Anyway, every year I try to repeat the bet and this year would have been no exception except they ran the race Saintsaire won on yesterday’s card. So I’ll take one from today’s 2.05 to make up the bet…

 1.35 Newbury: Big Bucks

2.05 Newbury:Pasco

2.40 Newbury:Killyglen

1.50 Newcastle: Binocular

3.25 Newcastle:Horner Woods

Festival trends….

The Free Trends for the Hennessey are available from the Members Area at …. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

After both our last two big race selections finished 2nd we’ll be hoping it’s 3rd time lucky in the Hennessey.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Judging by the comments and emails I have received over the last 24 hours it would appear that you quite like reading about my punting exploits. And seeing as how I enjoy writing about them I’d like to make it a regular feature here at Nag3. So, time permitting, every Monday I’ll give you all a full recap of how the week went for me (for better or for worse, for richer or poorer).

Luckily for me the missus never reads the Blog, as she’s too busy buying stuff on Ebay or watching the soaps, so my punting wins and losses should remain a secret between you and I.

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In the comments Gordon asked how I stake my bets and whether there was any logic to it. To which I have to admit, not really!

Before I do explain my bet staking though I have to hold my hands up and say that I don’t have the discipline of a pro-punter. You’ve probably worked that out anyway reading through my bets but it’s the one thing I’ve never had and can’t seem to master. I’ve tried logging my bets, using a staking plan and betting only when I truly fancied something but it never lasts for long and I always end up back where I started, betting horses because I like them (Well Chief) or because they’ve done me a favour before (Straw Bear) or even because of their name (Priestley!). I’m certainly no Dave Nevison or Patrick Veitch and I definitely don’t have the bottle, or the funds, to be like Harry Findlay and punt thousands of pounds on odds on favourites but I like to think I do alright while betting at a level that I can afford. Of course like everyone else I have my losing runs (they always seem to last longer than winning runs don’t they?) but I’ve also had the good fortune to experience some big wins in my time (and some very near misses).

In fact if I can get the scanner on my printer to work I’ll show you my biggest ever win later in the week, which incidentally was on the Hennessey card 4 years ago. It will give hope to all of you out there backing in multiple bets and probably explain why I keep backing Straw Bear!

Anyway, back to my staking. Basically the amount depends solely on how much I fancy it, simple as that. An average bet for me is £50 or £25ew but it can go as low as £5ew and as high as £500. If I do a multiple bet I usually stake at £1 units although I sometimes do £5 Lucky 15’s or on the odd occassion even higher. Placepot unit stakes depend on the size of the Perm but tend to have a total stake of £50-£100.

If I go racing I stake my bets depending on the odds I can get which probably isn’t a good way of betting but makes life a lot easier. So if it’s 15/8 I’ll have £120 on, if it’s 2/1 I’ll have £100 and if it’s 9/4 it’s usually £80.

And finally, the price very rarely affects my stake. If I really fancy it I’ll have a £100 ew on it whether it’s 8/1, 12/1 or 50/1.

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Next, in answer to Colin’s comments.

You are more than welcome to post your comments or send me an email if you agree or disagree with anything I write, in fact I positively encourage it.

BUT, just like Colin has done, I would prefer them to be politely and intelligently constructed. We’re all adults here (I think) and debating these issues is healthy for the blog if done in a sensible fashion. I know that not everyone is going to agree with everything I write and often there is more than one side to any issue but to just insult me and tell me to **** off is something I can do without.

On that particular Wetherby post I personally don’t think that what I wrote was going too far and I stand by my comments. The other examples of course mis-management Colin quoted are valid points but on both of these occasions the courses were able to learn from their mistakes and rectify matters. Wetherby haven’t and they, along with the horses that lost their lives there, have paid the penalty. Keeping things in perspective, let’s remember that we are after all only talking about an average racecourse that only stages a handful of meaningful races each season. It’s not as if I said let’s turn Cheltenham into an all-weather track…..

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Good luck,
Gavin.