Frankel is back! Unfortunately all of the superlatives to describe his latest performance have been used up over the weekend and there’s really nothing much more I can add. He is simply the greatest miler I’ve ever seen, or heard about, and hopefully by the end of the Season, when he has stepped up in trip, everyone will have to admit that he is the best horse there’s ever been.

I was lucky enough to see him win the Sussex Stakes last year and after that performance Sam and Dylan were fully converted to the Frankel fan club. We had planned to follow him around the country this year but work commitments meant we couldn’t make it to Newbury on Saturday so it looks like we’ll have to wait until Royal Ascot to see the freak in the flesh again.

It seems Sir Henry is favouring the Queen Anne at the moment but I’d rather he took the 10f Prince of Wales option as there really isn’t anything left to prove over a mile. He’s beaten the 2nd best miler in Europe 4 times now and opposition is getting thin on the ground over this distance. If Frankel turns up for the opening race of the meeting there’s a distinct possibility we’ll only see 3 or 4 rivals take him on and beating Excelebration up again won’t boost his claims to the title of greatest thoroughbred of all time. Much better to run against 130 rated Cirrus de Aigles and 125 rated So You Think over 10f and give them a good stuffing instead. If I owned him that’s what I’d do, followed by the Eclipse (beating the 3yo’s Camelot and Bonfire), drop back to a mile for the Sussex Stakes to beat Excelebration (again!) but more importantly brush aside that Aussie horse Black Caviar and pocket the £1 million bonus before going to Ireland for their Champion Stakes and beat Aiden O’Briens assembled batallion of runners. I’d then give him a short break before either sending him to France for the Arc or the states for the Breeders Cup Classic. If he did all of that then there couldn’t be a racing fan in the World who would doubt his claim to The Greatest Thoroughbred of All Time.

But we’ll probably see him go Queen Anne, Eclipse or Sussex Stakes, York International and QEII. All Group 1’s but an easier way to keep him unbeaten and not quite as much fun!

Poker

I managed to win the latest leg of the Genting Poker League last night which means I still have a shot (albeit a slim one) at winning it outright. All (!) I have to do is win one of the three legs this week and hope the leader finishes outside the top 3 in each one. If that happens, it’s Vegas here I come. It should be an exciting week and the first of the three legs is tonight…

Festival Trends

May is usually a hectic month for Festival Trends and this year has been no different with Newmarket, Chester, Ascot, Longchamps, Lingfield, York, Newbury and Newmarket already covered with  Haydock, The Curragh and Sandown still to come. Our latest York Dante Guide managed 3 winners from 5 races (15/8, 3/1 and 4/1) with Society Rock nearly getting up to make it a fantastic 4 timer and then over the weekend we went 3 winners from 4 races (7/1, 3/1 and 2/7).

That’s 6 winners from just 9 races and a LSP of over 15 points at SP.

It’s now just 4 1/2 weeks until the start of Royal Ascot and if you’re thinking of subscribing to this years Ascot Trends Guide we are currently running an Early Bird Offer. If you join up today we will give you EVERY meeting between now and Ascot absolutely FREE. That includes Haydock and the Irish Guineas next week, Sandown’s Brigadier Gerard evening meeting and The Epsom Derby meeting where we cover all 14 races over the 2 days.

The Royal Ascot Guide itself will again cover all 30 races over the 5 days and also includes daily updates, ante-post recommendations and a 10 page Trainers and Jockeys Guide that last year highlighted 25/1 winner Society Rock (available at 50/1 early prices).

The package costs just £24.95 and includes EVERY guide between now and Royal Ascot………

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Don’t forget if you want to receive the FREE Daily Tip Service you need to follow me on Twitter. (Results so far 7/1 second, loser, 7/2 winner). Sign up here…….https://twitter.com/gavin_priestley

For those of you not following me on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/gavin.priestley.1) I can tell you that Dylan scored his 40th goal on Saturday although the team lost 2-1. The end of team presentation is next Sunday and hopefully I’ll have some photo’s to post of him collecting his ‘Golden Boot‘ trophy.

I also have some exciting (well for me anyway) poker related news. Again for those of you following me on Facebook you may know that I’ve been playing in a league at Genting Poker (http://www.lasvegasteamchallenge.com/league-tables/) to win a trip to Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker. I’m currently in the top 5, and due to the scoring system, am one of only 3 people who can actually win the League. This was due to an amazing run of results I’ve had in the last fortnight (5-2-2-2-1) which have caught the eye of the powers that be at Genting Poker. After a ‘truly remarkable performance‘ (their words not mine!) they have kindly offered to sponsor me into one of their tour events and so I head to Edinburgh at the end of the month as a member of Team Genting. The winner of their last tour event took home £50k  so I’m hoping I can remain in the same form for at least a couple more weeks! I’ll be tweeting and facebooking my progress in the tournament, as well as blogging, so if you want to get real time updates please join me at Twitter or Facebook using the links to the right.

Which is probably more non-racing talk than you’d like so let’s get down to business……

With the Dante out of the way it’s now just over 2 weeks to the Derby. So what better time to take a look at the trials and try an unearth the Derby winner for 2012

Racing Post Trophy ( winners finished 0716116)  2000 Guineas  (201)

The Racing Post Trophy has proved a very reliable recent guide to the Derby with 7 of the last 12 winners running in the race the following Season and 3 winners actually doing the double, although the 2010 winner Cassamento bypassed the Epsom Derby last year to run in the French version. In contrast only 3 of the last 12 winners of the 2000 Guineas have gone on to run in the Derby but they do include a winner (Sea The Stars) as well as a second.

This year the much hyped Camelot followed up his Racing Post Trophy win by taking the 2000 Guineas on his seasonal debut and thus catapulting himself even further up the betting chart to odds on favouritsm for the Derby. Whilst he wasn’t as impressive as in his Doncaster romp the previous Autumn, when taking the Guineas, he did mark himself down as a horse with guts and stamina and looked a horse in need of a step up in trip. That he was able to handle the speedier milers in that race shows he has all the attributes one would like in a Derby favourite.

The Dante (1027391101203)

The number 1 trial for the Derby with 13 of the last 14 Dante winners heading to Epsom for their next start. The exception was 2010 winner Cape Blanco who instead headed to France where he was a well beaten favourite before bouncing back to take the Irish Derby. The Dante has provided 5 placed horses at Epsom in the last 8 years alone including 3 winners, although Authorized was the last to do so in 2007. Workforce in 2010 became the first beaten horse in the Dante to ever win the Derby after improving on his second place finish at York.

There must be every chance that yesterday’s winner Bonfire will add to those figures and he looks a good bet to a least make the frame at Epsom. It wasn’t a visually impressive win but there was though lots to like about his performance not least of which was the way the front two pulled clear of the field. With both of the fancied Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway running badly, and thus ruling themselves out of an Epsom challenge, it was left to Ektihaam (won’t be supplemented into the Derby as he is more likely to stick to 10f for the forseeable future) to put it to the Balding runner. He had won a class 3 race at Newmarket by 5 lengths last time out and is clearly no back number but despite sticking on well here he never looked like reeling in the winner. Jimmy Fortune wasn’t that hard on Bonfire through the closing stages and he looked like he’d definitely come on for the run so I think connections are right to be excited about taking on the hot favourite at Epsom in two weeks time.

Lingfield Derby Trial

A pretty poor trial for the Derby with the last Lingfield Derby Trial winner going on to Epsom glory being High Rise in 1998. 14 of the last 16 winners have gone on to run in the Derby and have finished: 62106804093670

Due to the poor weather this Spring the meeting was transferred to the All Weather track. The race was won by the unbeaten colt Main Sequence who beat the John Gosden trained favourite Shantaram by 3/4 length with 6 lengths back to the 3rd horse home. The winner has a tendency to flash his tail when under pressure but it doesn’t seem to affect his ability and he is now 4 from 4. It’s difficult to get excited about this ones chances in the Derby itself though as he was only a handicapper before this win and the runner up is still a maiden. You have to go back over 30 years to find the last Derby winner to have run in a handicap previous to victory at Epsom.

Chester Vase

Another race seen as a traditional Derby trial but the Chester Vase hasn’t produced the Epsom winner since 1990 when the runner-up Quest for Fame went on to win racings Blue Riband event. There have however been some good winners of late and most horses going on to Epsom from here run respectably with the last 8 horses to take their chance finishing 45660542.

Mickdaam took this years race for Richard Fahey and although he holds a Derby entry it’s difficult to see this one winning the big one in two weeks time. He’d been running in Meydan this Winter and had bits and pieces of decent form, including a 4th to Daddy Long Legs, but his overall profile is good but not brilliant and certainly not Derby winner. His form is closely tied with Shantaram and Main Sequence through Model Pupil and that just about says it all really. David Livingston was another Aiden o’Brien trials favourite that ran poorly and finished a well beaten 4th of 5.

Dee Stakes (115080)

The other big trial from the Chester meeting is the Dee stakes which provided the Derby winner in both 1999 (Oath) and 2003 (Kris Kin).

This years race was set to be Bonfire’s re-introduction but he was taken out on the morning of the race due to the soft ground. This left the way clear for Aiden O’Briens representative, Astrology,  to take the honours. He made no mistake and scored by 11 lengths but against a maiden and a couple of 90 rated horses it was no more, or less, than was expected of him. After a couple of decent efforts in Group company as a 2yo he has some form to his name and in a year when not many runners are likely to line up in the Derby he may be able to sneak a place at decent odds.

Derrinstown Stud (111330325)

After sending out 3 winners on the bounce (2000-2002) at the beginning of the century it looked like it would overtake the Dante as the principal Derby trial but although it regularly throws up a decent performer who runs with great credit it has not provided the winner since High Chaparal in 2002.

That’s not likely to change this year either as the winner Light Heavy doesn’t hold a Derby entry and is not going to be supplemented either. Aiden O’Brien was responsible for yet another beaten trial favourite in Wrote who trailed in a bitterly disappointing 8 length 3rd. Which leaves the runner up Tower Rock the only possible runner from the race heading to Epsom. He managed to get closer to Light Heavy this time after finishing 4 lengths behind that one in the Ballysax and could be improving but 40/1 looks about right for this ones chances.

From what we’ve seen so far, and with time running out, it looks like the bookies have it right in making it a straight fight between Camelot and Bonfire. If the 8/1 that Ladbrokes were offering on BONFIRE is still available this looks a knocking each way bet at 1/4 odds a place.

Good luck,
Gavin.

If you would like to follow me on Facebook and Twitter then please click the links on the right hand side.

I have started a new daily tip service on Twitter with selections ‘tweeted’ each morning before 10am.

The weather has really been a nightmare this week and I don’t think the Chester form can be relied upon to be reproduced.  When you get a 74 rated horse who got beaten in a class 5 handicap last time out winning a race like the Listed Cheshire Oaks I think it’s time to take the form with a huge pinch of salt. I for one, can’t see any of the winners this week being serious contenders for the early Classics. Unless of course it carries on raining all the way through to June and Epsom is reduced to a bog.

One horse who did appreciate the soft ground this week and who I was glad to see win was Pintura. I’ve been following him since tipping him when running poorly in last years Hunt Cup. The ground hadn’t been right for many of his runs since so it was disappointing to see him run so badly at Newbury last time given that he had his favoured going. He did slip another few pounds in the ratings as a result of that result and was able to capitalise on his new lower mark to score yesterday. What pleased me most about the win (apart from winning a few quid) was that it signalled the beginning of a return to form for the Simcock yard. The runners from the stable have been running poorly since the start of the Season (I know this from having backed quite a few of them) but they now seem to be showing signs of revival.

Which is good news for the horse I fancy in the Victoria Cup……

3.25 Ascot

FATHSTA ran 6th of 28 in this race last year off a 10lb higher rating and on unsuitably firm ground so looks well weighted to run a big race today. To show how far his handicap mark has slipped we simply need to see how much better off with last years winner he is. He gave Hawkeyethenoo 7lb when beaten 5 3/4 lengths in last years renewal but today receives 13lb giving him a 20lb pull in the weights. This time last year he was running off a rating in the 100’s but has now slipped to 90 and he seems to thrive in these big field handicaps with plenty of good runs throughout his career including a 6th in last years Wokingham (behind Deacon Blues off level weights!). With a step back up to 7f on soft ground today, the stable back in some sort of form, a good draw and a good handicap mark I’m expecting him to show a big improvement on his last run. It’s never easy to find the winner of a 24 runner handicap at Ascot but with a bit of luck and a clear route through I reckon he can be thereabouts.

Quite a few firms are offering 16/1 at 1/4 odds the first 5 (Bet365, Boylesports, PaddyPower) which I’d rather take over 18/1 the first 4 (Coral).

The other big handicap of the day is the Swinton Hurdle over the jumps at Haydock. It’s now been renamed The Pertemps Network, moved from the Bank Holiday weekend and stuck in the middle of a flat card but it still looks as tricky as ever.

Eradicate has won the last two runnings of this race and in the process completely destroyed the trends which used to be a very solid guide. Thankfully he’s not in the field this year so I’m going to give them another go….

- 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 4-6 (both exceptions Eradicate)
- 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 125-136 (1 exception Eradicate)
- 11 of the last 13 winners had won at least 1 of their last 4 starts (1 exception Eradicate)

which leaves 7

- 10 of the last 13 winners had raced no more than 9 times (1 exception Eradicate)

gives us a shortlist of 3: Ruler of All, Ifyouletmefinish and Double Ross

- 9 of the last 13 winners carried 10-08 or less (3 of 4 exceptions carried 11-04+)
- 9 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (3/4 exceptions finished 10th or worse)
- 10 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 2 of a handicap hurdle

Giving us DOUBLE ROSS as a big outsider that scores very well on the trends. He’s won on soft ground, has a 3rd to Fingal Bay and a 2nd to Cinders and Ashes in his form, ran off a 9lb higher mark in the Betfair Hurdle and has been running over a trip too far in his last two runs (including 8th in the NIM Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival). 33/1 looks a fair price to me.

If you’re not keen on following my selections I’m sure Gary will be posting his thoughts in the comments box below later on this morning.

Due to a rearranged match from one that was postponed in the Winter, Dylan has one last game of football this morning to try and get his 40th goal of the Season and set a club record. He’s already secured the Golden Boot as the topscorer but he really wants the 40 and has promised me a Drogba style celebration if he nets it. Rhoose Under 7’s had better watch out…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

We didn’t do too badly on Saturday with some big priced horses making the frame and the well backed Vita Nova scoring as expected. It meant I won enough money to take the family away to Legoland for the Bank Holiday where despite the park being closed on Sunday, due to a powercut, and the Monday being very wet we still managed a fantastic two days. The only downer on the weekend was that as I was travelling East towards London Matt and Mrs Matt were heading West to pay us a surprise visit in Wales. I guess the surprise was on them!

For those of you following my Poker antics on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/gavin.priestley.1) I can report that I finished 2nd again in the Genting Poker qualifier last night meaning I am now just 50pts behind the 2nd place runner in the overall League. We’re all chasing a Las Vegas holiday package and the current leader is well within my sights as we head into the final weeks of the competition. I can almost feel the sun on my back, the sound of riffled chips in the Rio and the taste of the pulled pork sandwich in the New York New York sports bar. Mmmmmmm…..

Right, down to business and Day 1 of the very popular Chester May Meeting….

THE CHESTER CUP

This is a race I’ve had a lot of success in over the years including Mamlook and Overturn in the last two runnings. This year I can’t understand how Kazbow can be a 40/1 shot on his running behind Never Can Tell over course and distance last September and he’ll be one of a couple of horses I’ll be backing in the race. He gave the subsequent Cesarewitch winner 7lb that day but was beaten just 1/4 length and on revised terms is 10lb better off with that rival. How one can be 6/1 co-favourite while the other is 40/1 is a mystery to me and with Kieran Fallon booked I’m hoping for a big run. 40/1 EW with Coral

3.05 CHESTER

It’s a race Gary has been waiting all Season for. STAR ROVER finally returns to 5f after many failed attempts at longer trips and as explained in his sprinters to follow this is one of his main fancies for the year. Chester is a course Star Rover has run well at in the past including a course and distance win as a 2yo at this very meeting in 2009. This is the lowest turf rating he has ever run off (was rated 108 at his peak) and from the 6 stall is handily placed to run from the front rank. I know Gary has already snaffled plenty of the 20/1 available.

4.45 CHESTER

I’ll be backing Fallon again in the lucky last on the awfully named JUNO THE MUFFINMAN. As a 2yo he always looked in need of a trip and that he would eventually make a nice 12f handicapper. He ran a fine second at Wolverhampton last June when splitting Ghostwriting and Repeater in a 7f maiden. With those two now rated 86 and 92 he looks nicely treated on just 75 and after a 10 length maiden romp at Southwell on his seasonal debut he comes here in form and well handicapped. He ran well on heavy ground at the end of last year and with Fallon booked looks set for a big run.

——————

We had another runner from my Ten To Follow list oblige yesterday at 10/1. Here’s what my 10TF analysis said…..

QUIZ MISTRESS (G. BUTLER) - 4yo
To look at her form figures you’d be forgiven for thinking I’d lost the plot with this one. I probably have but I noted her when finishing 2nd in a couple of longer distance races late last Summer. Both times she battled really well only to lose out both times to well handicapped improving runners. On her next three starts (including being outclassed in Listed company) she has been ridden closer to the pace and this style of racing doesn’t suit her. She needs to be held up at the back and produced at around the 2 furlong marker. All of her best runs have come in races where she has been ridden this way and under a more restrained ride can finally get back to winning ways.

She’s now trained by Hughie Morrison but apart from that it was exactly as I said with Ryan Moore holding her up in rear before making his challenge at around the 1 1/2F pole and quickening well clear with 120 yards to go. A nice 10/1 winner to go with the 13/2 Staff Sergeant and 7/2 Mayson (Gary’s list of sprinters to follow) last week. Those 3 winners have put us well in profit from just a handful of runs.

You can download the complete list of  Horses to Follow from this direct, one click link….

TEN TO FOLLOW LISTS

It’s 100% FREE with no details required!

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’m giving Gary the day off so he can recharge his batteries for an assault on the 6f sprint handicap on Sunday and the Chester Cup meeting next week. So for Saturday’s tips you’re going to have to put up with my dodgy fancies……

2.00 Newmarket

Top weight Fury has run two superb races this season in the two biggest mile handicaps run so far but he keeps hanging in the closing stages and has been going up in the weights without winning. He’ll probably run another good race but I don’t think 9f is the answer for him and he’ll probably find at least one too good for him again. I’m heading a bit lower in the weights and siding with MEMORY CLOTH who as a 3yo ran under 4 lengths behind Bekhabad, who went off favourite for the 2010 Arc and Breeders Cup Turf. After 16 months off the course his two runs last season were unspectacular but it did help his rating come down from the 95 he had started off in this country. He started off this year running twice on the AW over a trip too far 12f and an inadequate 7f but it meant he was able to run last time off 82. He took full advantage of this lenient mark to record a 3 1/4 length win in a 17 runner handicap at Ripon and now looks ready to step back up in class. The 9f and soft ground should be no problem and I fancy him to defy his 8lb rise in the weights.

2.15 Goodwood

If VITA NOVA doesn’t win this then I’m going to be a) very surprised and b) skint. She’s got the best form by far, won first time up last year, loves soft ground and has around a stone in hand on the field. If she runs anything like her second in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks behind Blue Bunting they won’t see which way she went.

3.10 Newmarket 2000 Guineas

I took a look at this race on Tuesday (CLICK HERE TO READ MY PREVIEW) and sided with the French raider HERMIVAL at 25/1. All this rain should suit him and I’m sticking with him and having a little each way bet on Frankie Dettori’s mount TALWAR at 40/1.

3.45 Palace House Stakes

The most amazing thing about this race is that the top rated runner in the field Hamish McGonagall has never won above class 2 in all of his racing career. He did manage a second in a Group 1 last year but all of his 12 attempts at Listed or Group company have met with failure. With most of this field having raced against each other, and taken it in turns to beat one another, in various sprints over the past few seasons I think I’ll take a chance on the bottom weight who has some excellent form to her name. CALEDONIA LADY belied her 100/1 odds to finish 3rd to Best Terms at Royal Ascot last year on only her second start and continued to run well in Group company throughout the year. She broke her maiden status in a Listed race at Ayr and rounded off her juvenile campaign staying on well for 3rd in a big Group 3 field at Ascot. First time up this Season she ran second in a Listed sprint at Bath which she would have won in another stride and had Night Carnation well behind in 5th. 3yo’s have won 3 of the last 6 runnings of this race and this stiff 5f on soft ground is just what she needs. 20/1 is a massive price which can’t be missed.

4.30 Thirsk Hunt Cup

DUBAI DYNAMO has a lot going for him in this race and should give us a great run at decent odds. He’s a very consistent horse but has struggled a bit since being rated in the mid 90’s during the second half of last season. He’s since slipped back to a more realistic rating of 87 and if you look at some of his form with a few of the runners in this field then he could look nicely weighted. He has a whopping 17lb pull with Stevie Thunder on Ripon running last August and on the 2010 running of this same race he has a 6lb pull with Osteopathic Remedy for the 1 1/2 lengths he got beat. This year he’s remained in good form with a creditable 9th in the Lincoln (from a 3lb higher mark) followed by a staying on 3rd over 7f at Thirsk and a 5th of 15 at Ripon over a mile (slightly hampered when staying on). He’s won over the course, handles softish ground and comes here looking nicely weighted. I think he has a big each way shout in this.

————-

MAY MADNESS IS BACK

If you fancy joining Festival Trends for the month of May then for just £9.95 you can enjoy EVERY guide we will be producing for the month.

That’s;

NEWMARKET this weekend for the Guineas (7 races covered)
CHESTER next week for their Chester Cup meeting (6 races)
LINGFIELD & ASCOT next weekend for the Classic Trials and Victoria Cup (3 races)
LONGCHAMP next Sunday for the French Guineas (2 races)
YORK 16th - 18th for the Dante meeting (5 races)
NEWBURY Saturday 19th for the Lockinge and the reappearance of Frankel (3 races)

NEWMARKET Saturday 19th for the King Charles Stakes (2 races)
HAYDOCK Saturday 26th for the Temple Stakes (2 races)
THE CURRAGH 26th-27th May 1000 & 2000 Guineas (2 races)
SANDOWN 31st May - Brigadier Gerard evening meeting (3 races)

That’s 10 meetings and 35 races for less than a tenner. Sign up below……

FESTIVAL TRENDS SIGN-UP

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. And if you haven’t downloaded the 10 to follow lists yet then maybe this may encourage you……

STAFF SERGEANT (JIM GOLDIE) - 5yo
One for the lower class Northern racing scene. He’s been sent off as favourite on 4 of his last 5 starts but has yet to show the form that his connections were hoping for on the track. That’s not to say he hasn’t run well as he made the runner up spot twice and the top 5 in 16 runner handicaps on another two occasions. His main problem seems to be that he’s not quite able to finish his races off and looks a little one paced in the last half furlong. His trainer started him off as 10f horse at the beginning of the Season and ended it with him contesting 7f-8f races and I think he needs a step back up in trip. There aren’t too many 9f races but that would look the perfect sort of distance for Staff Sergeant. He’s maintained a rating of 77-79 for all of those last 5 runs and should be able to pick up a class 3 or 4 race up North somewhere.

FRIDAY 4TH MAY: MUSSLEBURGH 9F HANDICAP

1ST STAFF SERGEANT 11/2

Download the lists from here; 10 to follow for 2012

While the 2000 Guineas (click here for yesterday’s preview) is all about stamina and being able to survive the stamina sapping Rowley Mile the 1000 Guineas is more form dependent.

The last 10 winners had all finished top 3 on both of their last 2 runs and had all won at least one of those 2 starts.
8 of the 10 had won last time out
while 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 2 of a Listed or better race.

and interestingly

All of the last 15 winners had raced at least twice as a 2yo.

So with that in mind let’s take a look at Sunday’s runners….

ALLA SPERANZA

Trained by Jim Bolger this Irish filly wasn’t seen out until mid-October when she took a mile maiden by 2 1/4 lengths despite looking in big trouble 2 furlongs out. On the evidence of that run she looked a stayer in the making  and it was no surprise to see her upped in trip for her final start some 3 weeks later. She ran in a Listed race over 9f where she found only John Oxx’s Call To Battle too good. The Oaks is her obvious target this Season and she may just find the 1000 Guineas happening too fast for her.

DIALA

William Haggas trains this twice raced filly who improved on her debut second with a convincing 4 length win in a class 5 maiden towards the end of last October. Both of those runs were at Newmarket, on easy ground over 7f. Connections obviously think a lot of her but this is a big step up in class for her and she’ll have needed to have improved over the Winter to challenge some of the other runners who already have Group form to their name.

DISCOURSE

This Godolphinv/ Al Marooni filly sits towards the head of the ante-post betting thanks to a decisive 4 1/2 length win over Lily’s Angel in the 7f Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket last August. This came on the back of a narrow win over her stablemate, Gamalati, in a 6f Newmarket maiden (5 lengths back to the 3rd horse). With that one winning a Group 2 on her next start and having won two races at Meydan over the Winter the form is rock solid and Discourse is a major player.

FIRE LILY

She’s yet to finish outside the top 4 in 8 runs so far, can boast a win in Group 3 company, a good run behind the colt Power and has been runner up twice in Group 1 company. But for all that she does seem to find one too good and has finished runner-up on her last 4 starts. She has twice been beaten by Best Terms and was second on her seasonal debut behind Homecoming Queen. She’ll probably run her usual game race but I just can’t see her winning.

GRAY PEARL

Charles Hills takes over the training of this filly from his now retired father Barry and there’s lots to look forward to from this twice raced maiden winner. She comfortably took a class 4 maiden at Newbury before running 3rd in the Rockfel at Newmarket at a big price. She has her work cut out to  reverse form with the winner Wading but represents a stable who have had success in this race recently and cannot be dismissed from calculations.

HOMECOMING QUEEN

Aiden O’Brien kept this one busy as a 2yo running her 11 times in all. It took her 7 attempts to get off the mark which she finally did when winning a 7f handicap. Upped in class she then ran 2nd in a Group 2, won a Listed contest and ended her hectic season running last of 14 at the Breeders Cup. Maintaining her busy schedule she’s already been out twice this season in a couple of Group 3 races managing to win the second of those from Fire Lily. She’s obviously as tough as old boots and a late developer but she doesn’t look up to the class of a Guineas winner.

LA COLLINA

Trained in Ireland by Kevin Prendergast she has some very solid form to her name. After winning her 7f maiden on debut she ran 2nd to Maybe in a 7f Group 3 before her finest hour came at The Curragh in early August. In her first start in Group 1 company she handled the drop back to 6f to account for the colt Power by a neck with the likes of top colts Lilbourne Lad, Frederick Engels and Gatepost all strung out behind. She ended her season finishing 3rd behind old rival Maybe and Fire Lily in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud over 7f.

LAUGH OUT LOUD

She didn’t run as a 2yo but Mick Channon has picked up a couple of Kempton AW wins with her this Season after her debut 2nd at Wolverhampton. The second of those wins came in a pretty decent Class 2 event but she looks way out of her depth in this race.

LIGHTENING PEARL

Another Irish trained filly who ended her season winning the Group 1 Cheverley Park stakes at Newmarket. That’s top form and came on the back of an easy 5 length win in a Group 3 at the Curragh. But she’s another filly who has been well beaten by Maybe and has nearly 3 lengths to make up with that one. She obviously improved after that defeat and with form at the track looks quite a big price at 20/1.

LILYS ANGEL

Richard Fahey gave this one a busy 2yo campaign running her 9 times from early April to late August. She won her first three starts but then her form seemed to plateau out as she got beat in a class 2 at Beverley and ran 5th at Royal Ascot. She bounced back to score in Listed company next time out at Newmarket,  finish 2nd in the big sales race at Newbury and second again in a Newmarket 7f Group 3 but after finishing last at Glorious Goodwood she was given the rest of the Season off. She make her seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in the Nell Gwynn where she was doing all her best work at the finish but she needs to improve quite a bit to reach the required Group 1 standard.

LYRIC OF LIGHT

Mahmood Al Zarooni didn’t run her until late August but boy (or should that be girl), did she make up for lost time. In the space of less than a month she won 3 races on various ground from 7f to a mile. She kicked off with a 7f Newmarket maiden win on good to soft and then headed to Doncaster for the Group 2 May Hill. She took that mile race on good ground by a neck and 3 1/4 lengths from Fallen For You and Samitar before heading back to Newmarket two weeks later for the Group 1 Fillies Mile. After travelling strongly for most of the race she eventually made hard work of beating Samitar this time around scoring only by a head getting up only in the last strides. 3 runs in less than 4 weeks had probably took its toll by then and after the Winter off she could come back this year ready to pick up where she left off.

MASHOORA

This French trained filly is quite short in the betting given her form doesn’t look quite as good as some of the Irish and home trained fillies. She won first time up and then finished runner up on two occasions in Group 3 company. She was beaten 1 1/2lengths by the top class filly Elusive Kate on her second run before being caught on the line by the unbeaten filly Boldogsag next time out over a mile on softish ground. That was the last we saw of her as a 2yo. She started this season with a Group 3 win over rank outsider Belle De Lune but it was the manner of her victory that obviously caught the eye of the odds compilers. Taking it up at the furlong pole she surged clear before Christophe Soumillon decided to get a bit cheeky and apply the brakes. He eased her right down to win by a neck but it could easily have been 10 lengths or more. She stays, she handles the ground but the big question is, ‘what does her form really amount to?’.

MAYBE

Aiden O’Brien gave her the perfect campaign last year with 5 wins from 5 runs and each time she raced upped a level in class. From maiden to Listed to Group 3 to Group 2 and finally Group 1 she answered every question she was asked and beat a lot of her 1000 Guineas rivals along the way. Her final victory in the Moyglare Stud was undoubtedy her best performance as she saw off Fire Lily and La Collina by 1 3/4 lengths and 3 in a time just outside standard. Being by Galileo the mile should be no problem but 6/4? Looks a little short for me considering there are so many other decent Group 1 fillies in the field.

MOONSTONE MAGIC

Unraced as a 2yo, Ralph Beckett trains this unbeaten twice raced filly who obviously caught connections on the hop with her debut win as she scored at 16/1 in a lowly Leicester class 5 maiden. She won that race by 8 lengths so they tested her out in Group company on her next start in the Fred Darling at Newbury. She came through that test very well by comfortably defeating Radio Gaga by 3 3/4 lengths leaving themselves little choice but to supplement her into the 1000 Guineas. If she improves by the same amount again then she will be a force to be reckoned with on Sunday.

NAYARRA

Connections obviously thought she was a good one right from the off as she was favourite for her first three runs but each time she found one too good and although she held her own in Listed and Group 3 races subsequently she looked destined to finish the season as a maiden. However, in a stroke of genius from trainer Mick Channon he sent her to Italy for the Group 1 Grand Criterium which she duly won beating one filly and 5 colts. What the form is worth is anyone’s guess but she did start this year off running second in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn. Overall though her profile doesn’t look like that of a Guineas winner.

RADIO GAGA

She hasn’t taken the normal 1000 Guineas route as having won her maiden at the first time of asking she then ran 2nd in a York handicap. She did slightly better next time out running 3rd in a Listed race at Newmarket and started this year off with a second in the Fred Darling. She was well beaten that day by Moonstone Magic and simply isn’t good enough to win the 1000 Guineas.

STARSCOPE

She only raced once as a 2yo where she surpised connections with a 20/1 win from Coplow in a 7f Newmarket maiden. Despite winning nicely the form of that race doesn’t look anything special. She started her 3yo career in the Nell Gwyn but could only manage 4th that day and has it all to do to be competitive here.

SUNDAY TIMES

Got off the mark at the second time of asking when easily winning a Class 4 Goodwood maiden by over 3 lengths. Subsequently raised in class she finished well behind Best Terms at York before running the race of her life in the Group 1 Cheverley Park where she stayed on well to take second behind Lightening Pearl. She was unable to repeat that run when upped in trip for the Rockfel and wasn’t seen again until running 6th in the Nell Gywn on her seasonal reappearance. She wasn’t beaten that far though and was staying on nicely at the finish. If she can recapture the form of her Cheverley park second she may be an outsider worth noting on Sunday.

THE FUGUE

John Gosden managed to squeeze a run into her at the very end of last Season when she won a Class 4 Newmarket maiden by 1 1/2 lengths. The second has been beaten since while the third managed a class 6 win on the Wolverhampton AW on his second start after. Not really the sort of form we’re looking for in a Guineas winner.

UP

An Aiden O’Brien runner with just the one win to her name although she did manage a fine 4th at the Breeders Cup last year. She’s been slightly disappointing this year with a defeat at 1/2 on the AW at Dundalk and a 3rd behind stablemate Homecoming Queen in a Group 3 last time out. On both of those starts she’s looked like a filly in need of a trip and she strikes me more as an Oaks type rather than a miler.

WONDERFUL

Another Aiden O’Brien runner but this one has yet to win a race. She’s finished 2nd on both of her two starts including finishing behind stablemate Up on the Dundalk all weather. I’m not sure when the last maiden won the 1000 Guineas but it wasn’t anytime recently and I wouldn’t be backing this one to buck that particular trend.

—————–

There are some very decent unbeaten fillies from last season in this race along with some improving horses who have shown excellent form already this year. It should be a fascinating contest but the two I’m going to take from this field at decent odds will be the Cheverley Park 1-2 from last season.

Lightening Pearl looks massive at 20/1 and the 66/1 Sunday Times may just be worth a couple of quid each way too.

Good luck,
Gavin.

After what seems an absolute age we finally say goodbye to the jumps season and welcome some decent flat racing this weekend as Newmarket plays host to the 1000 & 2000 Guineas. With some great supporting races I might even be tempted out of hibernation for a bet!

But first I’m going to take a look at the first Classic of the Season with a run down of the declared runners for the 2000 Guineas…..

ABTAAL

A French trained colt who seems suited to softish ground and racing over 8f. He won a mile Group 3 race at the end of last Season where he beat French Fifteen by 3 lengths. On his seasonal debut he was favourite to beat that rival again but he stumbled at the furlong pole and found the drop back to 7f against him. He was beaten only a neck that day and connections will be hopeful of reversing form with French Fifteen back over a mile.

BOOMERANG BOB

Never been out of the first 2 in 5 races so far but all his racing as a 2yo was done over 5f. On his seasonal reappearance he stepped up to 7f and although he seemed to stay the trip okay he was no match for the winner Caspar Netscher and will struggle to reverse form with that one.

BORN TO SEA

This Irish trained half-brother to Sea The Stars (same connections) did well in his first season with a Listed stakes win and a 2nd in a Group 3 behind Nephrite but he was found to be lame after that run and hasn’t been out since. Despite being related to Sea The Stars his breeding suggests he may struggle to get the mile (sire stamina index of 7.6f) but at least he should handle the softish ground no problem with both runs having been on similar ground.

BRONTERRE

After winning his first two races (maiden and Listed race) he ended his season with a fine 4th in the Dewhurst behind Parish Hall. He’s another with stamina issues and his seasonal debut saw him turned over at odds-on in the Greenham behind Caspar Netscher. I’d be very surprised if he’s good enough to make the frame.

CAMELOT

He easily won his maiden first time up then turned the Racing Post Trophy into a procession with a 2 1/4length win from Zip Top. What that form is worth we can’t be certain and winners of that race have a terrible record in the Guineas. He’s plenty short enough in the betting due to the connections breeding hype machine and may be worth taking on considering they’ve had plenty of other similar horses beaten in this race (remember St Nicholas Abbey?).

CASPAR NETSCHER

He had a very busy 2yo campaign with 10 runs starting in May and finishing at the Breeders Cup in November. He won two Group 2’s last Summer and the Group 3 Greenham Stakes on his Seasonal debut but his record in Group 1 company is 5-8 and with a sire stamina index of  just 6.9f there must be a real doubt that he will last out the mile at Newmarket.

COUPE DE VILLE

Richard Hannon managed to train him to 4 wins from 6 starts as a 2yo including a big sales race at Newmarket in October. He is yet another runner with a low sire stamina index (7.1f) and it’s looking like the 2000 Guineas may be a race of non stayers this year! He started 2012 off in a 10f sales race where he went off as the favourite but simply didn’t stay and was a well beaten 5th. Even allowing  for the drop back in trip he doesn’t look good enough to win the Guineas.

FENCING

He looked a nice prospect when running away with a Listed race at Newbury last August but was no match for Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy on his next start. He is at least bred to get the trip but there is no reason why he should reverse Doncaster placings with the favourite.

FRENCH FIFTEEN

As his name suggests he’s another French trained runner and he’s yet to be out of the top 2 in 7 runs since his debut. He’s won 6 times including a Group 1 and gained revenge on his sole conqueror, since his debut, when winning first time up this Season. He’s already won 3 times over a mile and handles soft ground but I’m not so sure he’ll confirm his reappearance form over the other two French trained runners.

FURNERS GREEN

Aiden O’Brien trains him and after a debut maiden win good things were obviously expected of him as he contested Group 1,2 and 3 races on his next 3 starts. That didn’t work out as he was well beaten in all 3 races and then again on his seasonal debut when dropped to a conditions race. He got his career back on track with a Group 3 win last time out and may run well at a big price.

HERMIVAL

The trainer pulled off a shock win with Makfi two years ago and on form he’s not far behind the other 2 French trained runners mentioned above. He ran 3rd in the Group 3 race that French Fifteen beat Abtaal and was doing all his best work late on. He’ll relish every yard of the trip on Saturday and if it keeps raining he may give his trainer another upset in this famous race.

MANDAEN

He was unbeaten in 2 starts for Andre Fabre, is now owned by Godolphin and won a Group 1 by 2 1/2 lengths on his last start. So why is he 50/1? Because both of those wins were at a distance in excess of a mile (9f and 10f). Stamina isn’t an issue as it is with others in the field but he looks much more likely to be a Derby horse than a Guineas one.

MIGHTY AMBITION

He won a nice 7f maiden at Newbury at the end of last Summer and looked a decent prospect but despite going off as favourite for the Craven on his seasonal debut he was unable to handle the step up in class. He finished well held in 5th and looks unlikely to improve enough to play a hand in the finish here.

PARISH HALL

He was a shock winner of the Dewhurst at the end of last Season but if you take that form literally he has an excellent chance of coming back to Newmarket and taking the first classic of the year. With Power, Most Improved, Bronterre and Trumpet Major all behind  him that day the form looks solid and a mile looks well within his scope. He won first time up as a 2yo and has shown he can handle the track with his Dewhurst win. The one reservation is the going as he has been well beaten both times he has raced on ground softer than good and connections will be hoping the rain stays away this weekend.

POWER

He went off the 15/8 favourite for the Dewhurst after an impressive early 2yo career that saw him win 4 of his 5 races and come 2nd on the other start. His Group 1 record is 2-1-2 and he has shown he can handle the ground and the track BUT once again we have a runner with a low sire stamina index figure (7.3f). Despite some decent credentials I won’t be backing this suspect stayer.

PTOLEMAIC

It took him 3 starts to get off the mark having made his debut at lowly Hamilton and then ran second in Listed company on his final 2yo start. He started his 3yo career off with a decent 4th in the Craven but was beaten a fair way and despite looking likely to appreciate the trip has little chance of making the frame.

REDACT

Another Hannon runner. He won his first two starts as a 2yo then finished 4th in the big Newbury Super Sprint sales race, 8th in the Ripon 2yo Trophy and 2nd to Caspar Netscher in a Group 2 on his final start of the Season. He began 2012 by finishing 4th off a big weight in the Free Handicap. The distance should prove no problem for him but the ground just might. His worst career run came on good to soft and unless it dries up considerably this week he won’t be getting his favoured ground.

RED DUKE

He had a great 2yo season winning the Group 2 Superlative stakes, finishing a very unlucky 3rd at Glorious Goodwood and runner up to Trumpet Major in the Group 2 Champagne stakes. His final run of the Season was in the Dewhurst where he disappointed finishing 8th of 9 although he was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths. Connections took him to Meydan for his first run of the season where he ran in a 10f Group 2 and finished 5th. Despite all the evidence of his previous runs suggesting he will appreciate the trip he is yet another runner to have a low sire stamina index (7f).

SAIGON

He has a win over Caspar Netscher in a Listed contest and was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths in a Group 1 race but overall his form doesn’t look good enough to land a Guineas. Once again we have a runner with a low 7.7f  sire stamina index although he was staying on very strongly over 7f in last seasons Group 2 Horris Hill. He’s never ran on ground softer than good with all his best form being on good to firm.

TALWAR

At the end of last August he looked like a horse going places having defeated Trumpet Major and following that up with a 5 length win in a Group 3 race at Sandown. However he was then stepped up to Group 1 company in 2 of his next 3 runs and failed to beat a single horse including finishing last behind Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy. He took advantage of a drop in class on his seasonal debut to win an all weather Listed contest going away. That was over a mile which he seemed to see out well so if we are able to ignore his 6.8f Sire stamina index figure he could be worth backing at 66/1 each way.

TOP OFFER

Nothing exposes the lack of class in this years 2000 Guineas than the fact that this once raced maiden winner is second favourite for the race. His impressive 3 1/2 length win in a class 4 maiden was undoubtedly eye catching but he hasn’t been out since last August and the runner up in that race was turned over by 5 lengths at 10/11 in a class 5 AW maiden next time out (the 3rd has also been beaten twice since). The 6/1 is definitely not for me.

TRUMPET MAJOR

He was unable to run two decent races in succession throughout his 2yo career and as a result his form went from the dazzling to the disappointing.  Highlights included a 6 length win over Elkhart at Newmarket and his win in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes but in contrast he finished last of 4 in a Group 3 at Sandown and 14th at Royal Ascot. He won the Craven first time out this year by 5 lengths but his overall profile doesn’t exude confidence that he will be able to reproduce that run.

————–

Throughout my analysis of the race I have been harping on about the Sire Stamina Index Ratings of the runners. The reason for this is that since 1991 EVERY winner of the 2000 Guineas had a sire with a stamina index of at least 8f (a mile). Over the last 5 years 12 of the 15 win and placed horses have had a SSI of 8f+….

2011 Frankel (11.1f) Dubawi Gold (9f) Native Khan (10.4f)
2010 Makfi (9f) Dick Turpin (7.7f) Canford Cliffs (7f)
2009 Sea The Stars (8.9f) Delagator (9.3f) Gan Amhras (11.1f)
2008 Henrythenavigator (9.9f) New Approach (11.1f) Stubbs Art (9.6f)
2007 Cockney Rebel (9.6f) Vital Equine (6.8f) Dutch Art (8.8f)

If you take out those runners this year that have a SSI lower than 8f you have 11 runners to choose your winner from:

Boomerang Bob, Camelot, Fencing, Furners Green, Hermival, Mandaean, Mighty Ambition, Parish Hall, Ptolemaic, Redact and Top Offer.

I’m going to take on the top 2 in the betting and side with a couple of big priced outsiders;

HERMIVAL (25/1)  and FURNERS GREEN (80/1)

Good luck,
Gavin.

TTS RESULTS FOR THE NH SEASON 2011-2012

This season we gave 93 winners from 369 selections and made a profit of over 125pts (Betfair SP before commission)

That’s a 1 in 4 Strike Rate or 25.2% to be exact.

185 of the 369 runners finished in the Top 3.

That’s 1 in 2 making the frame or 50.13% to be exact.

We had 21 Fallers or Unseats including a couple who were well on their way to victory at the time.

The full breakdown of where our runners finished looks like this;

1ST 93 25.2%
2ND 53 14.36%
3RD 39 10.57%
4TH 44 11.92%
5TH 26 7.05%
6TH 19 5.15%
7TH 11 2.98%
8TH 11 2.98%
9TH 4 1.08%
0TH 20 5.42%
PU 28 7.58%
FELL 12 3.25%
UR 9   2.44%

After the great success of the TTS Guide this Winter (now 6 years of profits in a row!) I’ve been asked by a number of subscribers to do a Flat version. So, after many weeks of research I have now produced a 2yo Guide that will run from May 1st to October 31st, the new ‘official’ Flat Season!

The Guide covers 41 Trainer/Track combinations and concentrates solely on the Juvenile runners from the chosen stables.It has everything you need to help pinpoint the races the top trainers target with their 2yo’s and all can show nice profits from a betting point of view for the last 5 years.

But don’t worry if you haven’t got the time to work out the selections yourself as I’ll be continuing the Daily Email Service, which identifies the days runners for you, and this is included in the price of the package.

You can sign up here: TRAINER TRACK STATS

If you’ve joined TTS before but couldn’t seem to make it pay then you may simply have joined us while we were experiencing a losing run (YES! We do have them!). It might be that discipline when it comes to betting isn’t your strong point. Or maybe you just didn’t give it a fair ‘crack of the whip’. Whatever the reason, it’s a shame to have missed out on 6 years of profits and so I’ve made a Guide to Getting the Best Out Of TTS: The 5 Do’s and Don’ts

It’s completely free and can be downloaded from

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/TTS2012guide.pdf

OR

If you would like a sample of the TTS Guide for this Seasons Flat then I have made a Directors Cut Guide that includes 10 Trainers that were identified in the research process, and are profitable to follow, but for one reason or another didn’t make the final cut for the 2012 TTS Guide.

You can have this guide for FREE by clicking here:

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/dircut2012.pdf

Both guides are 100% free and accessed with just one click. No payment, no details, no hassle. Guaranteed!

Good luck,
Gavin.

1.30 Sandown: Kapga De Cerisy at 14/1 looks to have a good chance of getting back to winning ways.The Venitia Williams 4yo has already won over today’s CD and on soft ground.

2.00 Sandown: I’m going to give one last chance to Art Professor, he ran a very good 5th at Cheltenham but was then very disappointing at Aintree. He has won on soft ground and showed he gets this trip with how well he stayed on at Cheltenham. Bet365 are 25/1 which looks worth an ew bet.

2.35 Sandown: I fancy an upset here and would take the 2 outsiders Dan Breen and Woolcombe Folly both are 25/1 to upset the fancied runners.

2.40 Punchestown: I tipped De Danu at Cheltenham for the cross country, he didn’t get in that day. Provided his exertions the other day, where he led for the vast majority of the La Touche over 4m1f, haven’t taken too much out of him,then the 33/1 on offer could prove to be a nice ew bet.

3.10 Sandown: I’m again going with 2 against the field. Rare Bob was my National fancy who was very unluckily brought down at the 5th fence, that exertion shouldn’t have taken too much out of him, he was around 20/1 earlier in the week but is now a top priced 14/1. The other I like is Tullamore Dew available at a best priced 28/1, the distance should be right up his street, he was disappointing at Aintree but I think that was because it all happened too quickly for him. Bet365 and PP are both paying 1st 5 places.

3.15 Punchestown: Roberto Goldback would have won this last year had he not got the last fence all wrong and got rid of his jockey. Follow The Plan was the lucky recipient that day, in the race where Kauto Star pulled up. I think the 16/1 available about Roberto looks tremendous value as he only has 2 lengths to find with Quel Esprit on their 1st and 2nd in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup and he’s the 13/8fav here.

Good Luck
Gary

TTS RESULTS FOR THE NH SEASON 2011-2012

This season we gave 93 winners from 369 selections and made a profit of over 125pts (Betfair SP before commission)

That’s a 1 in 4 Strike Rate or 25.2% to be exact.

185 of the 369 runners finished in the Top 3.

That’s 1 in 2 making the frame or 50.13% to be exact.

We had 21 Fallers or Unseats including a couple who were well on their way to victory at the time.

The full breakdown of where our runners finished looks like this;

1ST 93 25.2%
2ND 53 14.36%
3RD 39 10.57%
4TH 44 11.92%
5TH 26 7.05%
6TH 19 5.15%
7TH 11 2.98%
8TH 11 2.98%
9TH 4 1.08%
0TH 20 5.42%
PU 28 7.58%
FELL 12 3.25%
UR 9   2.44%

After the great success of the TTS Guide this Winter (now 6 years of profits in a row!) I’ve been asked by a number of subscribers to do a Flat version. So, after many weeks of research I have now produced a 2yo Guide that will run from May 1st to October 31st, the new ‘official’ Flat Season!

The Guide covers 41 Trainer/Track combinations and concentrates solely on the Juvenile runners from the chosen stables.It has everything you need to help pinpoint the races the top trainers target with their 2yo’s and all can show nice profits from a betting point of view for the last 5 years.

But don’t worry if you haven’t got the time to work out the selections yourself as I’ll be continuing the Daily Email Service, which identifies the days runners for you, and this is included in the price of the package.

You can sign up here: TRAINER TRACK STATS

If you’ve joined TTS before but couldn’t seem to make it pay then you may simply have joined us while we were experiencing a losing run (YES! We do have them!). It might be that discipline when it comes to betting isn’t your strong point. Or maybe you just didn’t give it a fair ‘crack of the whip’. Whatever the reason, it’s a shame to have missed out on 6 years of profits and so I’ve made a Guide to Getting the Best Out Of TTS: The 5 Do’s and Don’ts

It’s completely free and can be downloaded from

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/TTS2012guide.pdf

OR

If you would like a sample of the TTS Guide for this Seasons Flat then I have made a Directors Cut Guide that includes 10 Trainers that were identified in the research process, and are profitable to follow, but for one reason or another didn’t make the final cut for the 2012 TTS Guide.

You can have this guide for FREE by clicking here:

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/dircut2012.pdf

Both guides are 100% free and accessed with just one click. No payment, no details, no hassle. Guaranteed!

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’m guessing that anyone who decided to take advantage of my free offer to take TTS for the month of April is feeling pretty good right now.

From our 3 runners yesterday we had two nice winners at 5/2 and 10/1 (plus a loser)

Just another winning day for TTS as since April 1st (this is no Aprils fool) there have been 35 qualifiers of which 11 have won - that’s a strike rate of 31%

These winners have been priced at SP’s of 11/8, 11/8, 6/4, 7/4, 7/4, 5/2, 7/2, 7/2, 4/1, 9/2 and yesterdays 10/1.

This gives a profit on the month of 11.75pts to SP.

STOP PRESS: SUNDAY RESULTS - 2 QUALIFIERS = 7/1 WINNER & 1 LOSER

And  if you think that April must have been a flukey month……. since last November, when we started, we are up over 110pts and have a strike rate better than 1 in 4.

This is the 6th straight year we will show a profit for TTS.

All you need is patience and discipline to make TTS pay for your Summer holiday. If you didn’t sign up at the start of the month then treat yourselves to the last 7 days of the Season absolutely free. There’s plenty of NH racing still to take place this week…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Inter Penarth won 3-0 the week before last (Dylan scored 1 set one up) and they won 4-1 yesterday with Dylan netting twice. He is now on 39 goals for the Season. 50 is the new target before the end of the Season with a new pair of Messi footie boots on offer as the prize.

2.00 A small interest EW on Agent Archie at 16/1, ran well at Cheltenham behind Darlan but has better form on a flat track.
0.5pt ew 16/1 AGENT ARCHIE

2.30 Champion Court ran well when 2nd in the Jewson behind Sir De Champs, this longer trip should suit. 2/1 looks a bit tight so only a small interest bet.
2pt win CHAMPION COURT 2/1

3.05 Forpaddydeplasterer 16/1, ran much better at Cheltenham and this longer trip will suit him better than his Cheltenham conquerer Finnians Rainbow.
1pt ew FORPADDYDEPLASTERER 16/1

3.40 I have 2 against the field here Nikola and Bai Zhu who are both 33/1 ew 1st 5 places with Stanjames. Always Waining must be respected now he has changed from the National, I’ll never forget him winning this race 2 years ago when I tipped him here on this Blog at 100/1 AP, but I feel at around 10/1 there’s no value in him anymore.
1pt ew NIKOLA 33/1 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
1pt ew Bai Zhu 33/1 1/4 1-2-3-4-5

4.15 Cotton Mill was in the process of running a great race against Simonsig when he tried to run out 2 out. 5/1 looks a solid bet against the favourite who has had an injury since his last run.
2pt win COTTON MILL 5/1

4.50 Art Professor stayed on well from a long way back at Cheltenham in the Martin Pipe Hurdle, now back with a stronger Jockey he hopefully won’t get quite so far back early on. 20/1 with WH looks a tasty bet,
1pt ew ART PROFESSOR 20/1

5.25 NH flat race, do me a favour, these races are as bad if not worse than 2yo races on the flat. I don’t have a scooby doo who can or will win. Asked my 8yo son for a number between 1-20 and he said 13 so As I Am at 28/1 will do.
0.5pt ew AS I AM 28/1

Good Luck
Gary

Aintree Day 1

2.00 Not a race to get too involved with. I would love to see Big Bucks make it 17 in a row and remain unbeaten since reverting back to hurdles but from a betting proposition as long as 8 runners turn up then I think last years 3rd, Won In The Dark, is a bit of value at 100/1 (on offer with Paddy Power).

2.30 Time to recoup Cheltenham losses on Pearl Swan, he was staying on very strongly and I think would have gone close but for falling at the last. So long as that fall hasn’t dented his confidence too much then 11/2 with Corals looks good to me.

3.05 It’s going to be interesting to see how Hunt Ball gets on in his first attempt at Grade 1 company and over this extended trip but at around 5/1 doesn’t look any value to me. I am convinced that there’s going to be a shock here and have a short list of 4 Carruthers 33/1, Diamond Harry 20/1, Follow The Plan 66/1 and Roberto Goldback 80/1. I have done 2; Carruthers at 33’s and Roberto Goldback 170/1 on Betfair and a small ew bet at 80/1.

3.40 2010 winner Silver Adonis won a handicap last time which does go against the trends but he has jumped round here before and at 12/1 with Bet365 and ew terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4 he looks a solid ew bet. A value alternative is Keenans Future at around 33/1(Ladbrokes) and I’ll be having a small saver on him.

4.15 Oiseau De Nuit was an unlucky 2nd in this race last year having won the Grand Annual at Cheltenham the month before. At this years festival he carried a lot of my hopes and money only to be very unluckily brought down when travelling strongly. I am hoping to recoup all my losses here and think that 12/1 is massively over priced and predict an SP of nearer 5/1.

4.50 No real interest with such a small field but a small bet on Menorah at 6/1 as that seems to be a bit generous after the way he ran at Cheltenham.

5.25 Bet365 are betting ew 1/4 1-2-3-4-5 which is very generous of them, add to that they have the best price on my fancy Rick at 25/1. He finished 6th behind Cape Tribulation at Cheltenham last time and with him having to carry top weight and an 8lb rise for that success I feel Rick represents a bit of value. Palace Jester could be the alternative here, having run well in that same Cheltenham race last time, he comes from the JJ O’Neill yard who have won this race twice before and this is their only runner of the day.

2.00 0.5pt ew Won In The Dark 100/1 PP
2.35   2pt win Pearl Swan 11/2 Corals
3.05 0.5pt ew Roberto Goldback 80/1 Sportingbet
3.05 0.5pt ew Carruthers 33/1 Betvictor
3.40   1pt ew Silver Adonis 12/1 Bet365
3.40 0.5pt ew Keenans Future 33/1 Ladbrokes
4.15   2pt ew Oiseau De Nuit 12/1 Bet365 & Betfred
4.50   1pt win Menorah 6/1 Ladbrokes
5.25   1pt ew Rick 25/1 Bet365
5.25   1pt ew Palace Jester 20/1 Corals

Good Luck
Gary

Some trainer statistics for the Aintree meeting going back to 2003…….

PAUL NICHOLLS

Since 2003 Paul Nicholls has had 19 winners from 222 runners (8.6%) at this meeting. He has however managed at least 1 winner every year. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you a whopping £115.20 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2007 1 / 21    (wins / runners)
2008 5 / 28
2009 1 / 29
2010 3 / 23
2011 3 / 27

NEGATIVES (Since 2003)

All 35 of his runners that ran over 3m4f or further have been beaten with just 3 getting placed
All 9 of his NH Flat runners have been beaten (just 1 placed)
He’s had just 3 handicap winners from 111 runners
In Class 2 races at the meeting he’s just 2 winners from 45 runners (4%)
Just 1 of his 114 horses to have been sent of at odds of 8/1 or higher have won
All 106 of his runners to have started outside the top 4 in the betting have been beaten
Just 2 of his runners stepping up in class have won (from 85 runners)
All 23 of his runners carrying 10-07 or less have been beaten (1/50 10-12 or less)
All 22 of his winners carrying 11-11 or more have been beaten
All 28 of his horses aged 10 or older have been beaten (1 / 52 horses aged 9+)
All 15 of his runners to have run in the last 2 weeks have been beaten (1 placed)
All 10 of his runners to have had 0 - 1 career runs have been beaten

POSITIVES

17 of his 19 winners were 1st or 2nd Favourites (from 74 such runners)
All 19 of his winners had a top 4 finish in their last but one race
17 of his 19 winners had run at least 5 times in their career
13 of his 14 winners had run 5 or more times over jumps
16 of his 19 winners carried 10-13 – 11-08 (126 such runners)
All of his 19 winners had been rested at least 16 days since their last run
10 of his 19 winners were 4 or 5yo’s (64 such runners)

Ruby Walsh has ridden 18 of Paul Nicholls’ 19 winners from 114 rides for the stable. Christian Williams is 0/11 and Sam Thomas is 0/10.

PETER BOWEN

He may have a good overall record at the course throughout the year but the Welsh trainer has only managed 5 winners from 48 runners in April at a strike rate of just 10%, since 2003. You would however have won £56 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake thanks to Always Waining and Big Time Billy winning at odds of 22/1 and 28/1 in 2010 and Always Waining repeating his win at 14/1 in 2011.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2007 1 / 8    (wins / runners)
2008 0 / 10
2009 0 / 7
2010 2 / 3
2011 1 / 8

NEGATIVES

For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to do very well on the first day of the meeting as he has had no winners from his 9 runners on the Thursday.
Races at 3 miles or further are not his forte either as he hasn’t had any winners at these extended distances from 25 runners since 2003.
All 16 of his runners that were dropped in class compared to their last run have been beaten.
The 25 of his runners to have carried 11-00 or more have been beaten
His 7 horses that carried 11-09 or more were all unplaced
All 15 of his runners that last ran 31+ days ago have been beaten
Tom O’Brien is just 1/18 for Peter Bowen at the Aintree National meeting.

POSITIVES

4 of his 5 winners came in handicaps. The other winner was in a NH Flat race
All 5 of his winners came in races where there were 19 or more runners
3 of his 5 winners finished in the top 2 last time out (from just 12 such runners)
All 5 of his winners were stepping up 2+ levels in Grade (from just 20 such runners)
All 5 of his winners carried less than 11-00
All 5 of his winners had their previous run in the last month

Simply wait for Bowen to run a horse in a 16+ runner race, that is at least 2 grades higher in class to it’s last run and is carrying 11-01 or less.

He’s only had 9 such runners but has had 5 winners at odds of 10/1,25/1,22/1,28/1 & 14/1

AND THE LOSERS? one was 2nd in the National, one unseated in the National, one fell and one finished 13th of 22.

This was the Racing Post post race quote for the faller who was 20/1 ….  ‘Led, headed after 2nd, chased leaders, led approaching 3 out, 7 lengths ahead and going clear when fell last’!

So that probably would have made 6 big priced winners from 9 runners but the 5 winners still make a LSP of +£96. Not too bad at all!

JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has one of the best strike rates (16%) amongst the top trainers for the Aintree Grand National meeting thanks to his 16 winners from 100 runners since 2003. He shows a profit of +£41.35 on all his runners over this time period. But beware as he’s also drawn a blank on 3 occasions (2005, 2008 and 2011).

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2007 3 / 14    (wins / runners)
2008 0 / 6
2009 2 / 10
2010 3 / 8
2011 0 / 9

If you had backed all Jonjo’s 5-10yo’s at the meeting who had run over 2m1f or further you would have had 16 winners from 81 runners (19.75%) and shown a LSP of +£60.35

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2003 Nicky Henderson has had 13 winners from 149 runners (8.7%) at the Aintree Festival but backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £31.71 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2007 1 / 11   (wins / runners)
2008 3 / 15
2009 0 / 16
2010 3 / 19
2011 3 / 24

But by simply backing his male runners in non handicaps at 8/1 or under you would have had 9 winners from 30 runners (30%) and shown a LSP of £13.29

FERDY MURPHY

Ferdy Murphy doesn’t usually target the Aintree meeting with the same gusto as he does Cheltenham but he has managed 3 winners from 33 runners since 2003.

Interestingly all 3 winners were 8yo’s in Novice Chase races, had their previous run within the last 31 days and came from the top 3 in the betting.

3 runners and 3 winners for a Level Stakes Profit of £9.25.

————

BAGAF

After the success of our Buy One Get One Free offer over Cheltenham I’ve decided to do it all again. But this time instead of you getting one meeting for free I’ll give you the whole month! Forget BOGOF this is BAGAF…..Buy Aintree Get April Free

Simply buy the Aintree trends and not only will you get all 21 races run at that meeting (which also just happens to be our most profitable guide) you’ll also get EVERY guide we produce throughout April! That’s The Craven meeting, Newbury’s Spring Cup, the Scottish National, The Punchestown Festival and The Bet365 Cup Guide. Sign up below…….

BUY AINTREE GET APRIL FREE

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s another dismal Bank holiday on the racing front with only Fairyhouse providing any real quality with the Irish National.

Our original 100/1 selection for the race was balloted out, so you’ll get your money back on him and if you want to re-invest on our revised runners you can download the latest version of the Trends Guide here……

IRISH NATIONAL TRENDS

Remember it’s 100% FREE! and we’ve had the winner twice in the last 3 years (33/1 and 25/1).

And don’t forget you can still have TTS for free until the end of the month by signing up here…..

TTS LAST MONTH FOR FREE

I’m sure there were a lot of happy readers who were glad they did after Saturday’s results. 3 winners from 5 qualifiers at 7/4, 11/8 and 7/2

I’ve got some trainer / jockey stats for Aintree which I’ll be posting tomorrow but that’s all for now folks….

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. For those of you on Facebook who want to see my latest non-horseracing venture you can find out all about it here…..

http://www.facebook.com/LegendsMilkshakeBar

I’ve only just opened so don’t forget to ‘like it’ and if you’re ever visiting Porthcawl please come and say hello. Free milkshakes for all blog readers!