Ascot Day 1 & Day 2

Wow, what a breathtaking first day with plenty of thrills and excitement. I’ll let you know how I got on in the punting field at the end of the week but after Day 1 it’s a slight ‘advantage Gavin.’

So a quick recap of yesterday’s events…..

Firstly we had the jockey error that saw Richard Hughes give a 3 length headstart to a dual Breeders Cup winner and then try and close the gap down in less than a furlong. That he nearly suceeded shows just how good a miler Paco Boy now is. Take nothing away from the winner though, she’s very, very good, but I reckon Paco’s connections will be itching for a re-match.

We then beat the Aussie’s (which is always nice) when Equiano regained the Kings Stand and ended the recent domination of overseas winners. This was a pretty clear pick for our trends guide and the only slight dampener on the race for me  was that he returned 9/2. Having backed him at 10’s in the morning and seeing 8/1 freely available 10 minutes before the off it was an incredibly poor returned SP. I hope anyone who backed him got on at the early odds.

And then the highlight of the day for me (and another trends winner) when Canford Cliffs showed he’s back to his best and is the top 3yo miler in Europe. My brother had £2oew at 66/1 on Hearts Of Fire and counts himself unlucky but although he ran a fine race I still don’t think he would have beaten Canford with a troublefree passage. I’m really looking forward to seeing the winner race against his stable companion Paco Boy in the Sussex Stakes and over a turning mile it will be some contest. Glorious Goodwood indeed.

Richard Hughes got it right in the Coventry with a finely timed ride to get up close home on Richard Hannon’s top juvenile Strong Suit. Unsurprisingly, he’s now favourite for next years 2000 Guineas but a word of caution…12 of the last 13 winners of the Coventry all got turned over next time out. Even the 2007 winner, and future dual 2000 Guineas winner, Henrythenavigator couldn’t overturn that stat as he finished 2nd in the Phoenix Stakes on his following run. The bad run for The Coventry Stakes continued last year when the highly impressive winner, Canford Cliffs, got beaten as a 4/9 favourite on his next start in France.

Onto the 20 runner handicap that saw David Pipe pull off a bit of a coup with the ex-Alan King novice chaser, Junior. He won it well but didn’t appeal to me beforehand or even as he crossed the line. I was more interested in the battle for the places as I needed Dayia for my placepot. On the BBC slow mo replay I was convinced he was a clear 4th and was gob-smacked that it was given as a dead-heat. With the other horse dead-heating being the Fallon ridden favourite it made a big difference to the Placepot dividend as there were now 5 horses qualifying including the favourite. I’d like to see that print!

And finally the Windsor Castle which 50 yards from the line was a dream result. Having made Stone Of Folca and Excello joint selections in the trends guide we were happy to see them battling it out in 1st and 2nd place. How quickly things can change though as just 50 yards later we ended up with 3rd and 4th. It was nearly as annoying as Di Steffano in last years race….

 DAY 2

How my day goes will probably be decided in the first as I am on Shakespearean big time. I was really impressed with his performance at Epsom last time out and I’m looking for Frankie to bounce this one out and make all the running. I’ve gone against the trends here as penalty winners don’t win this race as a rule but this is a Group 2 horse and he should be able to defy the penalty. Come on Frankie!

Other horses that will be carrying my money are Mull Of Killough in the Hunt Cup (Roberts comments have been noted) with a saver on Dandy Boy, Twice Over in the Prince of Wales and Clairvoyance in the last although there is a trends runner in that race who looks very good.

I just hope I’ve got enough money left for tomorrow because I’ve got a big fancy in the Britannia and he is going to be a big price.

If you want to leave a comment telling everyone what you fancy today, please do…..

 ———

Gary

His re-issued system horses have just started to splutter back to life over the last couple of days after a pretty poor run. On Monday he had a nice 20/1 winner and then yesterday scored another 3pt winner at 11/2. This has given the system a stay of execution and we’ll continue with it for a little longer.

As for his Outsider Selections for Ascot, well they went pretty well yesterday. He didn’t manage to get a winner but he had a horse placed at big odds in all of the first 5 races and a non runner in the 6th.

Race 1: Paco Boy 2nd at 11/4
Race 2: Borderlescott 3rd at 16/1
Race 3: Dick Turpin 2nd (advised at 9/1) and Hearts Of Fire 3rd (advised at 50/1)
Race 4: Roayh 3rd at 22/1
Race 5: Aaim To Prosper 3rd at 16/1
Race 6: Non Runner

Perming his selections in an each way accumulator would have returned over £3000 for a £1ew unit stake.
A 10pew Lucky 63 would have got £2100 back!……Not bad at all.

If you want to see what he’s backing for the next few days then you can subscribe to his service at http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck for today,
Gavin.

P.S. Come on Shakespearean

P.P.S. Oh and Mull Of Killough, Twice Over and Clairvoyance!

10 Responses to “Ascot Day 1 & Day 2”

  1. broggsy Says:

    I permed Garys selections in an each way acca 10p stakes (£12.80 total) and got back £387 whoohooooo!!!!!!!!!!!

    Gavin how much would it have cost to do a 10pew lucky 63 perm on all of Garys selections?

  2. Hugh Says:

    Glad it went well for you Gavin. I nearly had a heart attack watching Strong Suit bring home the bacon. A really classic Hughes balls up ride which he seemed to have grown out of recently.

    Today I am equally sweet on Maqaasid. I saw her at Sandown and she is a magnificent specimen, just hope the draw doesn’t fox me.

  3. Tim Shea Says:

    3 for Ascot
    2.30 Shakespearean
    3.05 Antara
    3.50 Byword
    Ripon
    7.50 Kellys eye
    8.50 Maslak
    Kempton
    8.10 Tiradoti

    Congrats to Gary

  4. Roger Says:

    Why publish/sell ratings then go against the selections- I followed your advice(foolish me) and backed Shakespearean !!!

  5. gavinpr Says:

    Roger,
    Are you saying that the only horses I can mention on this blog are trends picks?

    The horse ratings I publish are not my tips they are horses that fit the trends for the race. I have no control over what the stats say is the likeliest winner. All of the workings out are clearly explained and whether you agree with them or not is down to you. I can’t manipulate the trends to come out with the horse I fancy or want to back. If a trend says penalised winners can’t win the Jersey then the horse doesn’t fit, simple as that.

    In this particular occassion I didn’t agree with the selection and chose to back another horse. The reason I fancied it has been well documented on this blog over the last couple of weeks. You have the opportunity to read my arguments for the horse and make up your own mind whether you agree with me or not. If you do by all means back them and if you don’t bet something else.

    It didn’t work out, I got it wrong and I did my money.

    Time to move on to the next race.

    Gavin.

  6. Darrin Clark Says:

    Never mind Roger, there’s always the next race. You must be new to the trends service. Gavin goes through all the trends and comes up with the selection. If trends horses won all the time they would have sp’s of 1/16.

    If you fancy something else because you feel it can overcome the trends then you back it.

    I hope the rest of the day goes better for you.

    Darrin

  7. jbzola Says:

    Hills bros useless
    go too soon tues. Again today

    and finally with 10lb inhand nearly gets trapped on far rail

    these boys cld lose a 1 horse race

    outside rides a r hills

    dream on
    utterly awful jockeys on gd horses

  8. Vik Says:

    Its all very well saying that if you had done a Lucky 63 EW on Gary’s selections then you’d have won £2100 - BUT how on earth would you have selected them 6 as 12 horses were given as selections?

    Also, unless I’m mistaken you couldn’t do a lucky 63 anyway as 2 of them horses are in the same race…

    Nice 33/1 winner today tho ;-)

  9. mattg Says:

    no ascot for me today as the all weather was on..backed all the nines before work at 12/1 only to see it won at 25/1 so not happy with that chappy…yesterday i managed 4 winners out of 6 using the speed rated but no great value to be had anywhere…ibzola not sure why you blame the jockeys?? this is horse racing, try blaming the horse…my garys fund is still showing 50 points so cant see the problem there??…well done gavin great blog as usual…

  10. Gordonc Says:

    King Garry strikes again! Invisible Man 42.0 Betfair, things just get better and better. Keep up the good work lads.

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