An easy system for Aintree

With the Cheltenham Festival taking place a couple of weeks previous to the Aintree Grand National meeting and similar top class races taking place at both meetings it's hardly surprising that Cheltenham provides the most number of Aintree winners but that's not to say it's the only place to look if you want to make the meeting profitable.

Over the last 10 years 123 of the 210 race winners did have their last run at the Cheltenham Festival.....

Track Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
Cheltenham 1186 123 10% -154.91 333 28%
Sandown 132 8 6% 34.50 24 18%
Uttoxeter 36 6 17% 209.00 18 50%

And as they provided only 1186 of the 3253 runners over the last decade it means that horses that had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival supplied 36.5% of the runners at Aintree but won 58.5% of the races.

What's wrong with that you may ask? Well, unfortunately you would have lost money just backing these types blindly as these sorts usually sit at the top of the betting markets or are often overbet.

You could improve the figures by only backing horses with a Top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival as they are 68 winners from 300 runners and show a LSP of +82.44 over the last decade (5 profitable years from 10) which would give you a 50/50 chance of making a profit each year. Not the best system I've ever seen though.

However, if you take another look at the table you may notice that those coming on from Uttoxeter have a very good record at Aintree from just a small number of runners. With a 13% Win Strike Rate, a 39% Place Strike Rate and a whopping Level Stakes Profit of £199! I think we need to dig a little deeper....

All 6 winners and 12 places came via the Midlands National meeting held on the Saturday after Cheltenham finishes.

As 5 of the 6 winners returned 22/1, 25/1, 33/1 50/1 and 100/1 (exception 9/1) along with placed runners at 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, 40/1, 50/1 and 66/1 and with five of the 17 win and placed runners failing to complete the course last time out, it seems best to forget recent form and just back all runners from that particular meeting blindly each way.

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
2017 4 0 0% -4 1 25%
2016 5 2 40% 39 5 100%
2015 2 0 0% -2 0 0%
2014 3 0 0% -3 1 33%
2013 2 0 0% -2 1 50%
2012 1 0 0% -1 0 0%
2011 3 0 0% -3 2 67%
2010 2 1 50% 21 1 50%
2009 4 2 50% 123 3 75%
2008 10 1 10% 41 4 40%

2017 Placed 66/1
2016 9/1 & 33/1 winners + Places at 10/1, 14/1 & 20/1
2015 -
2014 Placed 12/1
2013 Placed 14/1
2012 -
2011 Placed 40/1 & 50/1
2010 22/1 winner
2009 25/1 & 100/1 winners + 25/1 placed
2008 50/1 winner + 33/1, 12/1 & 11/2 placed

It looks a system where you won't lose very much if it blows out but has the potential to generate some huge winnings. Just the type of system I like...

BACK EACH WAY ALL AINTREE FESTIVAL RUNNERS THAT LAST RAN AT UTTOXETER ON MIDLANDS NATIONAL DAY (17th March)

Good luck,
Gavin.

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