An easy system for Aintree

With the Cheltenham Festival taking place a few weeks before the Aintree Grand National meeting and similar top class races taking place at both meetings it makes sense that Cheltenham is the first place to look when trying to find Aintree winners. The stats show that since 2008, 135 of the 231 Aintree Festival race winners did indeed have their last run at the Cheltenham Festival.....

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
1289 135 10.47% -168.61 365 28.32%

And as they provided only 1289 of the 3567 runners over the last 11 years it means that horses that had their last start at the Cheltenham Festival supplied 36.1% of the runners at Aintree but won 58.4% of the races.

They definitely over perform so why not just back them all? Well, unfortunately you would have lost money, in fact a lot of money, (-168.61) by just backing them blindly as these sorts usually sit at the top of the betting markets or are often overbet.

You could improve the figures by only backing horses with a Top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival;

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
326 73 22.39% 79.74 162 49.69%

They are 73 winners from 326 runners and do show a LSP of +79.74 over the last 11 years. Unfortunately they have only been profitable in 5 of the last 11 years which would give you less than a 50/50 chance of making a profit each year. Not the best system I've ever seen!

In fact it's very hard to find any real angles backing Cheltenham Festival horses at Aintree on the whole and it may pay to look elsewhere............. But where?

Well, how about those that last ran at Uttoxeter;

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
53 6 11.32% 192.00 21 39.62%

Those horses coming on from Uttoxeter have a very good record at Aintree from just a small number of runners. With an 11% Win Strike Rate, a 39% Place Strike Rate and a whopping Level Stakes Profit of £192! I think we need to dig a little deeper....

The big profit figures are rather skewed by the 100/1 Grand National win of Mon Mome but a quick look at the win and placed odds of the other runners leads me to believe there's some merit to this betting angle.

2019 Placed 25/1
2018 Placed 25/1, 20/1 & 14/1
2017 Placed 66/1
2016 9/1 & 33/1 winners + Places at 10/1, 14/1 & 20/1
2015 -
2014 Placed 12/1
2013 Placed 14/1
2012 -
2011 Placed 40/1 & 50/1
2010 22/1 winner
2009 25/1 & 100/1 winners + 25/1 placed
2008 50/1 winner + 33/1, 12/1 & 11/2 placed

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
2018 7 0 0% -7 3 43%
2017 5 0 0% -5 1 20%
2016 7 2 29% 37 5 71%
2015 2 0 0% -2 0 0%
2014 3 0 0% -3 1 33%
2013 4 0 0% -4 1 25%
2012 1 0 0% -1 0 0%
2011 5 0 0% -5 2 40%
2010 3 1 33% 20 1 33%
2009 5 2 40% 122 3 60%
2008 11 1 9% 40 4 36%

Interestingly all 6 winners and 13 of the 15 places came via the Midlands National meeting held on the Saturday after Cheltenham finishes. These types have figures of....

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
42 6 14.29% 203.00 19 45.24%

As 5 of the 6 winners returned 22/1, 25/1, 33/1 50/1 and 100/1 (exception 9/1) along with placed runners at 20/1, 25/1, 25/1, 33/1, 40/1, 50/1 and 66/1 and with five of the 17 win and placed runners failing to complete the course last time out, it seems best to forget recent form and just back all runners from that particular meeting blindly each way.

It looks a system where you won't lose very much if it blows out but has the potential to generate some huge winnings. Just the type of system I like...

BACK EACH WAY ALL AINTREE FESTIVAL RUNNERS THAT LAST RAN AT UTTOXETER & PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THOSE WHO RAN ON MIDLANDS NATIONAL DAY (16th March)

FRIDAY

Caltex 1.45 Aintree 8TH
Point of Principle 1.45 Aintree PLACED 2ND 33/1
Ardlethen 4.40 Aintree 8TH
The Captains Inn 4.40 Aintree  PU
The Cob 5.15 Aintree 7TH

SATURDAY

Poker Play 1.45 Aintree Saturday  (Midlands National day)
Lord Napier 3.40 Aintree Saturday  (Midlands National day)
Polydora & Smooth Stepper 4.20 Aintree Saturday (Midlands National day)
Folsom Blue 5.15 Aintree Saturday  (Midlands National day)

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

5,402 total views, 3 views today