First up is a quick round-up of the weekend where I was lucky enough to get some time off and join Matt and some of his readers for a day out in Newmarket. Although I wasn’t able to make it in time for the morning trip to the gallops and the stable tour, by all accounts Julia (Fielden) and John were fantastic hosts and made sure everyone had a great time.

I did get there in time to visit the National Stud though and after a whistle stop tour of the grounds we had dinner there before setting off for the track and an afternoon of punting and drinking.

What made it an even more amazing day was that everyone in the party seemed to have a winning day too. With Matt’s latest free racing system throwing up the 33/1 winner of the feature Ascot chase, Frankie having a well backed winner in the handicap, Henry Cecil having a 4/1 winner and me telling all who would listen that Bended Knee would win the last it was hard not to make money! I’m really looking forward to doing it all again in the Spring.

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5 things I’ve learnt in the last few days…

It’s time to read the last rites to Wetherby racetrack….

Plenty has been written about Wetherby over the last few months as it has come under the spotlight for the large number of fatalities at the Yorkshire course and events on Saturday have done little to repair it’s reputation. Although it produced one of the best finishes of the day it has to be said that the 5 runner Charlie Hall chase was one of the worst renewals of the race for many a year and this has to be contributed to trainers not wishing to risk their stable stars at the track. To make matters worse for Wetherby Barry Geraghty took the wrong course on well fancied, and likely winner, My Petra as the runners navigated their way around a badly laid out part of the track. A few cones or a tape marking out the correct course would have easily avoided such a situation. And with yet another fatality at the track to add to the course executives worries the prospect of turning Wetherby into another all weather flat track must now look even more tempting.

Godolphin don’t want this flat season to end…

Having suffered a downturn in their fortunes over the past few seasons and having to play second fiddle to the mighty Coolmore operation it’s been something of a rebirth this Summer for the boys in blue. The signs of a Godolphin resurgence were there at the beginning of the year with some very good performers and performances at the Dubai World Cup meeting but again they seemed to struggle over the first few months of our domestic season. Then suddenly it all seemed to change and the last few months have seen them hit top form, especially in the 2yo department. They have had an amazing 68 2yo winners this flat season at a strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £22.41. On the All Weather it’s been even more incredible with 35 winners at a 46% strike rate and a £48.36 level stakes profit.

And the last 14 days has seen them train an astonishing 25 winners from 62 runners (40%). There are still plenty of big races left worldwide this year and given the stable form at the moment you’d have to think that they’ll be picking up quite a few of them - starting this weekend at Santa Anita?

On-course bookies aren’t doing themselves any favours….

Having had 20 years experience of bookmaking I’ve always had a lot sympathy with independent traders trying to earn a living at the game. It’s not easy and one of the most annoying phrases spouted by people is ‘you never see a poor bookie’. Believe me there are plenty of them out there! However my patience and sympathy for the independent bookie was severely tested on Saturday when two incidents at Newmarket left me slightly peeved………Firstly, I placed a win bet on Anhar in the 3rd race and on checking my ticket realised that the clerk had made an error by making it an each way bet. Anhar ran well but got caught on the line meaning that theoretically my ticket was a winner. Being the honest chap I am I went to tell the bookmaker of his error and that obviously I wouldn’t be collecting the ‘winnings’. To my surprise he threatened me with calling the Ring Inspector! No thanks for pointing out their mistake just a nasty threat as if it was me, trying to con him. I only wished I backed my big fancy in the last with him, now that would have been justice.
Which is where my second gripe occurred. I had a nice each-way bet on Bended Knee in the finale but my mood was dampened somewhat by the outrageous each way terms of the bookie I placed the wager with. A 16 runner handicap and he paid me out at 1/5th the odds. Come racing? With these kind of practices going on I’m not surprised people prefer to stay at home and back online. Any bookmaker standing at a track and offering these kind of place terms should have their licence revoked.

Henry’s gotta horse……

Of all the winners on Saturday I was most taken by Henry Cecil’s Timepiece who showed a lot of guts to get back up after being headed a furlong out. She battled on very well to get the better of Nurture by a nose with over 4 lengths back to the third horse. It’s worth noting that Cecil sent out Passage of Time to win this race a few years ago and that Midday ran 4th in it last year. I would imagine that Timepiece is very close to the top of the pecking order in the filly division at Warren Place and 33/1 for next years Oaks doesn’t look that bad a bet at the moment.

Selling calendars is profitable but I’d rather be jetsetting…..

My Winter job for the Calendar Club is well underway now, and although I managed to sneak a day off on Saturday to go to Newmarket, it’s such a shame that all the good foreign racing takes place at this time of the year as I can’t get any time off. Having missed the trip with Matt to last month’s Arc meeting I’m now set to miss joining him at the Breeders Cup meeting this week. The worst part of it all for me is the promiximity of Santa Anita to Vegas. A few days in Sin city followed by the Breeders Cup sounds like a perfect holiday to me…..I’m jealous as hell but safe trip and good luck mate!

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MELBOURNE CUP

‘The race that stops a nation’ takes place in the early hours of tomorrow morning and though I won’t be up watching it live I will be recording it for later viewing over a bowl of snap crackle and pop.

I’ve had a good look through the form for the race, studied a few video’s on youtube and had regular email updates from down under via a blog reader (thanks very much Leo). The two favourites, Viewed and Alcopop, are a bit too short for me to get excited about and I’m inclined to look further down the betting lists to try and find a nice outsider (or two)….

The Racing Post experts all seem to agree that a low numbered stall is needed but if you look back over the last 15 or so years there doesn’t seem to be any advantage, or disadvantage, to where you are drawn. Stalls 21 (twice) and 22 have won very recently as have 14,15,16 and 17. A better trend is to look at the record of overseas challengers where you see that only Dermot Weld (twice) has managed to bring the Cup back to Europe. There have also been a Japanese and New Zealand winner since 1992 but the rest were all trained in Australia.

The first one of interest to me is Fiumicino. Though his recent form doesn’t look that good it’s his run back in April that catches the eye. Running off level weights in the BMW cup he beat both Viewed (last years winner and this years favourite) and Master O’Reilly, who went off favourite for the 2007 Melbourne Cup. A repeat of that run will surely put him in the shake-up and at 66/1 appeals as an attractive longshot.

There are a couple of ex-European horses that may be familiar and they are both decent prices. Warringah used to run for Sir Michael Stoute but was bought by his current connections with the sole purpose of winning this race. He is reported to have acclimatised well and apparently his preperation for the race has gone to plan with Sir Michael giving his new trainer plenty of guidance. He’s 28/1 and though he was a bit one-paced when racing over here it’s not difficult to see him making the frame. The other ex-euro horse is Changingoftheguard who you may remember finished an unlucky 2nd in the Ebor for Aiden O’Brien. He was outclassed subsequently in the Leger but has got in here off a real racing weight of just 8 stone. 3 time race winner Glen Boss takes the ride and he would have been my selection were it not for the fact that he has suffered a slight training setback.

So the search continues and having viewed Saturday’s Mackinnon trial I nearly went with Newport as he was blatantly not trying then and surely must have been using the race to get fully fit for this. 40/1 could still tempt me yet but the one I’m siding with is LEICA DINGwho sits at the bottom of the weights. She took the Geelong Cup last time out and that has been the best trial for the Melbourne Cup in recent years. She stays, she’s in form, she’s got a nice racing weight and she’s my each way bet at 20/1.

Each Way Selection: LEICA DING

Good luck,
Gavin.

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