5T analysis of the Royal Hunt Cup

1) Trends

The highest rated winner in the last 20 years has been 105

  • All 61 horses rated above this have been beaten
  • 4 of the last 5 winners were rated 100+

The biggest weight carried to victory in the last 20 years was 9-05

  • All 81 horses carrying more than this have been beaten
  • 4 of the last 5 winners carried over 9-00

13 of the last 20 winners finished Top 4 last time out

  • All 7 exceptions finished 9th or worse
  • All 7 exceptions last ran in a Class 2 Handicap

17 of the last 20 winners were aged 4 or 5yo

  • All 29 horses aged 8yo or over have been beaten
  • 7yo's are 1 winner from 50 runners

No winner in the last 20 years has come from Stalls 1 or 2

  • Only 18 of the 80 win and placed horses from the last 20 years were drawn under 10
  • All 36 horses drawn 8 or 9 have finished unplaced

No winner in the last 20 years had their last run in Group company

  • Horses that last ran in Group 3 company are 0 wins and 1 place from 31 runners
  • Only 2 of the last 20 winners ran outside of Handicap company last time out (both in a Listed race)

The last claiming jockey to win the Hunt Cup was in 1999 (3lb)

  • All 25 jockeys claiming 5 or 7lb in the last 20 years finished unplaced
  • 3lb claimers are 1 win and 3 places from 30 runners

All of the last 20 winners were rated between 1-19lbs higher than the lowest rated runner in the field

  • All 44 bottom rated runners have been beaten
  • All 30 runners rated 20 or more lbs than the lowest rated runner have been beaten

2) Trainers (Best and Worst for the last 20 years)

Richard Fahey has had 1 placed horse from his 17 runners while Mick Channon is 1 place from 11 runners

  • All 14 of Richard Fahey's runners this century have finished unplaced at 16/1 or above.

Andrew Balding & Luca Cumani have identical records of 0 wins 2 places from 14 runners apiece

  • 7 of Andrew Balding's last 13 runners have finished 20th or worse in the Hunt Cup.
  • Luca Cumani has had 7 runners at odds of 10/1 or under (including one at 13/8) and they have finished 2005869.

Mark Johnston is 1 place from 10 runners which is slightly better than David Elsworth who has seen all 10 of his runners finish unplaced

  • David Elsworth's shortest priced runner was 10/1 and finished 5th. The other 9 were 16/1 or bigger and finished outside the top 10.

Royal Ascot Trends Subscribers can find the top trainers for the race in the Members Area

3) Trials

I've taken a look at the last 8 winners and the races they contested before heading to Royal Ascot. I also had a look to see if they had run at Royal Ascot before. Three races have come out of the research as major pointers to the Hunt Cup including one that came as a bit of a surprise. These were the results....

2016 - Portage won the race having finished first in the Listed Silver Stakes at the Curragh just 11 days previous. That was his first run of Season. The Curragh race was over 1m2f and he won by a length as the 7/4 favourite. When winning the Hunt Cup he became the first horse since 2003 not to have raced in handicap company last time out and he is the joint highest rated winner in the last 20 years.

  • He had run 17th at the previous years Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap when a well fancied 7/1 shot. He came back to Ascot a month later to win a class 2 handicap and then finished 2nd of 22 and 5th of 34 in the Irish and Newmarket Cambridgeshires

The 2017 running of the Listed Silver Stakes takes place this Saturday at The Curragh

2015 - GM Hopkins finished runner up in a class 2 mile handicap on Lockinge day at Newbury a month previous to the Hunt Cup. This was his second start of the season having finished 10th in the Lincoln on his seasonal debut when sent off the 6/1 favourite. He had a decent trends profile and fitted the 5 main stats for the race.

  • He didn't run at Royal Ascot the previous year as he missed all of that Summer but he did win a class 3 handicap at Sandown and the the 22 runner Cambridgeshire consolation race at Newmarket when returning from his break in September.

The 2017 running of the Newbury Handicap was won by Richard Fahey's Withernsea. Brigliadoro was second and Mutarakez was third. Full result is here

2014 - Field Of Dream was making his Seasonal debut when winning the 2014 Hunt Cup and had been off the track since running down the field in the Newmarket Cambridgeshire. That same season he had won the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, finished 5th of 29 in the Ascot International Handicap, 9th in the Betfred Mile at Glorious Goodwood and 5th in another big field handicap at Ascot.

  • He had run at 3 of the previous 4 Royal Ascot Festivals finishing 5th in the Jersey Stakes in 2010 and 4th at 66/1 and 6th at 12/1 in the 2012 & 2013 Hunt Cups. Although having a great record in big field handicaps over the previous 2 Seasons his trends profile wasn't ideal being a 7yo who had been off the track for over 8 months.

The 2016 Cambridgeshire first four home were Spark Plug, Carry On Deryck, Very Talented and Third Time Lucky.

2009 - 2013.... Royal Ascot Trends Subscribers can find the research for all 8 years in the Members Area along with a look at the 3 key race pointers the research has identified.

4) Top Three (in the betting)

BANKSEA - He overcame having to start from the wrong half of the draw to take the Newbury Spring Cup last time out on his first start since being gelded. The form of that race is working out very well and as a lightly raced 4yo rated 104 he has the right trends profile. He's always looked better suited to a mile and disappointed on a few occasions when asked to race over further last Season. He didn't run at Royal Ascot last year but did win at Pontefract the same week over 1m2f. In 5 subsequent runs he didn't manage to win again despite being well fancied each time and he rounded off his Season with a 19th place finish in the Cambridgeshire as the 9/1 favourite. He definitely has the look of a Hunt Cup winner but it's worth noting that Luca Cumani has a terrible record in this race despite having had many fancied runners over the last 20 years.

FASTNET TEMPEST - Third in the Spring Cup behind Banksea he looked an unlucky loser there as his jockey had gone to the front a bit too soon and he was swallowed up in the final 50 yards. Under a bit more restraint he has gone on to win his next two starts - the 24 runner Victoria Cup over 7f and a class 2 handicap at Chester over 7 1/2f where he made rapid headway late on to grab the spoils. He didn't run at Royal Ascot last year but as another lightly raced, in-form 4yo who, despite being raised 11lb since the start of the Season, still looks leniently treated on 99 he is a major player. The big worry with him though is whether a mile stretches his stamina and with an entry in the 6f Wokingham as well it seems his trainer is unsure of this too.

AFJAAN - From the same stable as Fastnet Tempest this 5yo flopped when a short priced favourite at Glorious Goodwood last Season but has been redeeming his reputation ever since. After two confidence boosting runs on the all weather last Summer he finished 7th and 4th in two big Ascot 100k+ handicaps in the Autumn where he showed plenty of promise and a liking for a mile. On his first run this Season he was dropped back to 7f for a class 2 Haydock handicap where he stormed home to win impressively from a rating of 100. Unsurprisingly, given the manner of his win that day, the Handicapper put him up 6lb which means he'll be looking to set a new record for the highest rated winner of the Hunt Cup if he is to succeed there.

CHELSEA LAD, GEORGE WILLIAM, NEXT STAGE, MORANDO, GK CHESTERTON, PORTAGE, BALLET CONCERTO............

Royal Ascot Trends Subscribers can find the analysis for the other market leaders in the Members Area.

5) Tip

As there are some doubts about the top 3 in the betting I will be looking further down the list for my selection.

I'll be applying the trends to get my shortlist before paying special attention to last year's Britannia Handicap, Hunt Cup and Cambridgeshire and to this year's Newbury mile handicaps.

SELECTION: ZHUI FENG 33/1

Good luck,
Gavin.

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Today's Guide looks at the Royal Hunt Cup and includes my 33/1 Selection!

The main Trends Guide covering all 30 races will be added this weekend.

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2 thoughts on “5T analysis of the Royal Hunt Cup

    • Hi Michael,
      If you are a Highway 50 Subscriber you can get the Royal Ascot Meeting for £5 by using the 50% Off coupon code found on the Members Download Page.
      All the best,
      Gavin

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