1) Grand National…

Judging by the reaction of the bookmakers, the racing experts and plenty of punters I may be alone in saying this but as that’s never stopped me before here goes…Big Fella Thanks can’t possibly win the Grand National.

Quite how he got promoted to 8/1 favourite on the back of a win in a 2 1/2 mile handicap is beyond me especially when he did his level best to throw away the race. When you consider the length of the run-in from the final fence at Aintree, idling in front and staggering around like a drunken sailor throughout the final furlong are not the qualities I look for in a National favourite and anyone who’s followed his career will know it’s not the first time this horse has done it. On his first run over fences at Chepstow he was sent off the 4/6f  and had the race in the bag as he led over the last but on went the brakes and 3rd(!) place was where he ended up. 2 runs later and he was up to his old tricks again at Taunton as he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, this time as the 1/4 favourite. Yes he was 6th last year in the National but he was beaten 23 lengths in a very slowly run race that saw any number of runners still in with a chance 3 fences out.

I for one am not interested in his chances for the Grand National one little bit.

2) Hitting form…

Having gone the whole of last week without a bet, in order to keep my powder dry for Cheltenham, I allowed myself half an hour in Betfred’s on the way back from doing the weekly shop at Morrisons. What a good decision that turned out to be as first up I backed Quinz at Kempton, who won at 9/4 for my £40, and then followed it up with another £40 bet on Wogan, who won at 5/1. The slight dampener on the latter was reading in yesterday’s Racing Post that he is very unlikely to go to Cheltenham. As I have backed him for the Kim Muir at a big price on Betfair it looks as if I’ve done my money, again. At least I didn’t get involved with Possol though! After the shenanigans of last week there was no way I was going to back him this time around and after seeing him put in such a poor jumping display I reckon his not running in last weeks Racing Post Chase may have been a blessing in disguise. I may have lost my money ante-post on him but  I was saved from going in again on the day of the race.

Of course no trip to the bookies would be complete for me without backing a second and the £60 I left on Doctor David in the last at Doncaster seemed to restore a little order to the world when he finished runner-up.

It was good though to be hitting a bit of form just as the most important meeting of the year approaches.

3) Evens on Dunguib…

Reading through the last few Racing Post’s it looks like there are plenty of bookmakers out there who are willing to take Dunguib on in the first race of the Festival and I reckon his current odds-on quotes may begin to lengthen over the next week or so. I’m not suggesting that he’ll be available at anything like 6/4 but it’s not impossible that even money will be freely offered on the day of the race. It’s now looking likely that Get Me Out of Here will run in this race as his odds are shortening all the time which can only help anyone holding out for evens.

4) Dropping like flies….

We’re now into that period before any big meeting when you have to start rubbing your lucky rabbits foot, touching wood at every opportunity, avoid walking under any ladders and sprinkling your ante-post tickets with holy water. Yes, it’s that time of year when all the fancied, and not so fancied, runners start getting injured. Mille Chief, Punchestowns, Binocular (yes, no, maybe), Sublimity, Notre Pere (saves  all that travelling just to pull up), Secant Star, Mikhael D’Haguenet have all had reported problems recently and there’s bound to be plenty more before the meeting starts.

I’ve dodged the bullets so far but there’s still another week of nail biting anxiety to go.

5) Racehorse ownership isn’t high on the missus’s agenda….

Having seen that there were a few shares in Diktalina up for grabs I had speculated that I might take up the opportunity of getting involved with the partnership. My dreams of owning a share in a Cheltenham winner didn’t last long though as the missus was having none of it, mainly due to the fact she has her heart set on a holiday home down in Torbay. We’ve found a lovely little place in Paignton and with the down payment on that, our Easter family holiday to Vegas all paid for and my gambling funds for Cheltenham put aside the Priestley coffers are now nearly empty. I’ll just have to have a few quid on the mare (Diktalina) and cheer her on as if I owned her.

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Festival Trends

Our 4 for the Handicaps ante-post sheet is now ready for download.

We may struggle to match the amazing success of last year when we tipped Something Wells at 33/1 but we have got 4 horses who all share the same characteristics as that runner i.e. they all fit the trends, they all have good recent form and they’re all big prices.

The four are currently trading at 40/1, 20/1, 20/1 (subject of recent heavy support) and 25/1

It’s a cool £600,000 for a £1 Lucky 15. Something to dream about over the next week!

Some of our selections have alternative engagements but with most firms now betting non-runner no bet at least we’ll get our money back should they run elsewhere. It did happen last year when we tipped Horner Woods for the Jewson Novices Handicap only to see him run second to Cooldine in the Sun Alliance Chase instead. On that run I think I might have been right in saying he may be well handicapped off 10-00 in the Jewson!

Download the sheet from the Members Area : http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 8th, 2010 at 1:23 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.