4 Races to Note

For those of you who took my advice back in May to follow all the runners that came out of the London Gold Cup Handicap you would have been backing an awful lot of winners over the last 2 months. There have been 6 individual winners who have won 9 races between them from just 17 runs! They also show an impressive level stakes profit of +23.83. Four of the first 5 home that day have won at least one race since including the race winner Defoe who followed up another handicap win with victory in a Listed race last Saturday.

If you didn't take note and have been missing all of those winners then don't worry as I have a few more races where it's worth following every runner that comes out to run again....

4 RACES TO NOTE (1st August - 30th September)

6F GOODWOOD MAIDEN (Colts and Geldings) (1st August)

This Class 2 Maiden for 2yo colts and geldings is run over 6 furlongs on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood Festival and has long been a great source of future winners. It usually pays to follow those runners who finish in the top half for the rest of the Season although long term it seems that nearly all of the runners that take part will eventually win at least one race.

Last year 5 of the first 6 home would go on to win at least one race before the end of the Season (the exception won on his third start as a 3yo).

11 of the 14 runners from the 2015 renewal had managed to win a race within 12 months while 11 of the 13 from the 2013 race and 15 of the 17 runners in 2012 have all since won a race.

6F CLASS 2 YORK NURSERY (23rd August)

This 6f nursery (2yo handicap) is run on the opening day of the York Ebor meeting and is a winner factory for those runners who race again over the following year. Of the 19 runners from last years renewal there have been 13 individual winners taking 20 races between them over the last 11 months. Only 4 of those 13 winners did so that same season but with odds of 14/1, 12/1, 12/1, 12/1, 5/2 & 2/1 it proved a highly profitable strategy.

In 2015 12 of the first 15 home had won a race within 12 months with 6 winners doing so that same season. These 6 winners included victories at odds of 9/1 and 12/1 and backing all runners until the end of the Season was again a profitable strategy. It was a similar story in 2014 when 10 of the 14 runners had won a race within 12 months including 4 that same season (13/8, 9/4, 3/1 & 12/1)

DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP (23rd September)

This is another Class 2 handicap that is run at Newbury over 10 furlongs although unlike the London Gold Cup it is open to all horses aged 3yo and up. It has provided plenty of subsequent winners over the last 5 years including the 2016 renewal.

Last year there were 18 runners that went to post and 15 have run again since. Of those 15 we have seen 6 go on to win at least one race and over the last 10 months they have shown a LSP of +23 (including winners at 14/1 & 33/1).

The race takes place on the 23rd September and it's worth following any horse that ran in the race including into the following Season.

LONSDALE CUP runners in the YORKSHIRE CUP (25th September)

There is a race run in September that is possibly the best trial of any race run all year. The trial is the Lonsdale Cup (York Ebor meeting) and the race it points to is the Doncaster Cup (St Leger meeting). If we look back to the last 15 winners of the Doncaster Cup we can see that 6 were also successful in the Lonsdale Cup at York, two were 2nd in that race, two were third and one was 4th. Two of the last 15 winners that didn’t contest the Lonsdale Cup were Irish trained – Saddlers Rock in 2011 and Honolulu in 2008. I think we can excuse the Lonsdale Cup for not providing the winner in 2008 though as there was no corresponding race that year!

The full break down looks like this:

2016 Sheikzayedroad won the Doncaster Cup by the shortest of margins (won on the line) from Quest for More who had won the Lonsdale Cup (LC)
2015 Pallasator - Didn't run in LC (only the LC last home Simenon ran in that years Doncaster Cup. Finished 5th)
2014 Estimate - runner up in the LC (winner didn't run in that years Doncaster Cup)
2013 Times Up – 3rd in the LC (neither the winner or 2nd in the LC that year ran in the Doncaster Cup)
2012 Times Up – Won Lonsdale Cup
2011 Saddlers Rock – Didn’t run in LC (winner of the LC that year was Opinion Poll who finished 2nd to Saddlers Rock as a beaten favourite)
2010 Samuel – 2nd in LC (winner of LC that year was Opinion Poll who finished 4th as a beaten favourite)
2009 Askar Tau – Won LC
2008 Honolulu – Lonsdale Cup abandoned this year
2007 Septimus – Won LC
2006 Sergeant Cecil – Won LC
2005 Millenary DH – Won LC
2004 Millenary – 3rd in LC (winner of the LC that year did not run in the Doncaster Cup)
2003 Persian Punch – 4th in LC (neither the winner or 2nd in the LC that year ran in the Doncaster Cup)
2002 Boreas – Won LC

So we can see that 6 of the last 15 winners of the Doncaster Cup also won the Lonsdale Cup and of the 5 horses that were placed in that race four of them didn’t have to re-oppose the winner as it didn’t run. Looking at the four times the winner didn’t run in the Lonsdale Cup we see that on one occasion the race was abandoned and not re-run, one Lonsdale Cup winner was beaten on the very last stride, one renewal only had the last horse home representing the Lonsdale Cup form  and on the other occasion the Lonsdale Cup winner was a beaten favourite (the same horse that had been beaten the year before again as a beaten favourite).

So note the first 4 home in the Lonsdale Cup and back the one that did best among those that go on to contest the Doncaster Cup

Good luck,
Gavin.

THE SECOND HALF

If you would like notifying when there are any runners from the races and System highlighted above plus any runners from the Trainers and Horses To Follow featured on the Blog this week then I will be running a Daily Email Service throughout August and September for JUST £10!

signup

There will also be 7 further races during those two months that I will be giving the 5T treatment to (Trends, Trainers, Trials, Tips and Those Taking Part). These will be exclusive to those subscribing to the Email Service and include some of the biggest handicaps and Group races run during the second half of the Season.

The email service starts on 1st August but for those signing up before then I will also include the Daily Nag Email for Glorious Goodwood, for FREE!

That's a lot of value for just £10!

signup

1,378 total views, 4 views today