Monthly Archives: February 2012

Next up for my Ante-Post analysis is the Supreme Novice Hurdle but first I’ll give you a quick recap on the antepost bets I’ve placed so far.

Pertemps Final: SIVOLA DE SIVOLA 10/1
Jewson Novice Chase: FOR NON STOP 8/1
4 Championship races: Last years winners to win again 20/1
World Hurdle: SMAD PLACE (EW) 50/1
RyanAir: LITTLE JOSH (EW) 25/1
Triumph Hurdle: BABY MIX 8/1
RSA Chase: LAST INSTALMENT 8/1 – Out injured for Season

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

With the market showing 8/1 the field it would appear that much like the juvenile division there is no standout horse on the 2m novice scene for older horses this Season either and it looks a good race to search for a decent priced winner.

There are currently 91 entries for the race made up of the outclassed, the unraced, the promising, the in form and the gone off the boil types. In order to narrow the numbers down I’m not going to bother with any that have yet to race (the last once raced winner came in 1992 when Flown scored) and any maidens.

Surprisingly Flown was also the last winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle for Nicky Henderson. Since then he’s had 22 runners without success although he has found the runner up spot 3 times and 3rd place a further 4 times. His 22 runners finished 602P8990033P320084U230. Definitely worth noting if you intend backing Darlan, Ericht, Keys, Molotof, Simonsig or Tetlami.

The biggest stat involved with the Supreme Novice is that since 1996 every winner had won at least 50% of all their hurdle starts. This doesn’t look good for Colour Squadron or Dylan Ross and is another nail in the coffin for the out of form Prospect Wells.

On the face of it 5 and 6yo’s have dominated this race in the last 12 years (9 wins) but if you look a little deeper you will also see that they have also been responsible for the vast majority of the runners (80% of all runners since 1999 have fallen into this age category). So you could argue that the runners outside of this age bracket have actually slightly overperformed having won 3 of the last 12 Supreme Novices. There are just four 7yo’s and one 8yo currently declared this year with only Prospect Wells remotely fancied in the betting. I think it should be safe to concentrate on the younger runners (4-6yo). The 4yo’s have a nice 8lb allowance from their elders and it enabled Hors La Loi III to win the Supreme in 1999. Of the 4yo’s entered this year I like Alan King’s Balder Success but he looks likely to run in the Triumph.

Another runner who looks to have an alternative target but would be of interest should she show up at Cheltenham is Baby Shine. I’ve actually backed her for a small bet at 170/1 for the Supreme but her preferred race is the Mares Only Final at Newbury the following Saturday in March. Wherever connections decide to run her next I’ll be backing her as I really like this horse a lot.

Monksland at 33/1 (Stan James) for the Supreme Novice would be worth a serious bet should he run there instead of his intended target the NIM Hurdle but only if you get your money back if he goes for the longer race. Unfortunately, while Bet365 may be NR-NB but they have also cut him to 20/1.

It’s a similar story with Sous Les Cieux who was 2nd in the Deloitte Hurdle behind the 50/1 shock winner Befficient. 25/1 on him is a massive price should he run here rather than later in the Festival but with Willie Mullins having such a strong hand in the novice department you can’t be sure where any of his are going to run. And once again Bet365 have slashed his odds to a very tight 12/1.

So what are we left with?

- Steps Of Freedom, who will be having his first run since winning at Cheltenham last November. Even though 12 of the last 14 winners had run in the previous 45 days it’s not impossible to overcome that sort of layoff but the horse he beat that day, Prospect Wells, has done little for the form since.
- Trifolium, who has some decent form in the book but has only ever raced on soft or heavy ground and he’s unlikely to get those conditions here.
- Midnight Game, who has been mopping up in novice hurdle races the last twice but was beaten 21 lengths on his only run in Grade 1 company.
and
- Galileo’s Choice, who although will appreciate the going more than most of his Irish compatriots makes little appeal at 8/1 considering he was put firmly in his place by Sous Les Cieux in a Grade 1 before Christmas.

Almost by default I’m left with Cinders And Ashes who finished 5th in last Seasons Cheltenham Bumper and has won his last 3 races in the style of a very good horse.

He’s 9/1 with Bet365 and he’ll be the main bet for me.

I’ll also be backing Monksland if I can get 25/1 or bigger when the other firms go NR-NB.

Good luck,
Gavin.

If you want a copy of the Triumph Hurdle Trends Guide which comes with my selection and ratings then simply click the no obligation, one click, no payment, no details required link below…..

100% FREE TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS GUIDE

There is absolutely no catch whatsoever. You can download the guide with no obligation to susbscribe to any service or receive any unwanted emails. And it’s 100% FREE!

Or if you wish to susbcribe to the entire trends for Cheltenham (and beyond) then I’m sure we have a package to suit your needs…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

With Bet365 breaking ranks and becoming the first bookmakers to offer NR-No Bet on all races at Cheltenham (plus Best odds Guaranteed) I think  it’s time to get stuck into the Festival races and take a look at the Ante-post markets……

With all eyes on the Triumph Hurdle last weekend, with most of the market leaders having had engagements either here or over the Irish Sea, I think that’s the best place to start.

Things didn’t work out quite as the market suggested though and there’s been an almighty shake-up in the Triumph Hurdle ante-post market thanks to some runners returning to form, others improving their form, some franking the form of others and some not showing the form that was expected.

First race under the microscope is the Adonis Hurdle from Kempton which has provided the winner of the Triumph Hurdle for the previous 2 years and 5 times in total since 1999. This years renewal looked decent with the easy Kempton winner Sadlers Risk and the much hyped ex-French flat recruit Dildar amongst the runners. Also present were the Nicky Henderson filly, Une Artiste, who had won the Victor Ludorum last time out and Baby Mix the one time Triumph favourite who had blotted his copy book last time out. The race itself looked all done and dusted as they raced between the last two flights as Baby Mix went 6 lengths clear but Sadlers Risk (receiving 3lb) to his credit never gave up and after rallying bravely managed to reduce the deficit at the finish to 2 lengths. Dildar had his bubble well and truly burst, unseating at the last when well beaten while Une Artiste was outclassed and tailed off. The front two look pretty decent and I doubt there will be much between them in the Triumph where a stronger pace and the uphill finish may play more to the runner-up’s strengths.

What went wrong at Cheltenham last time with Baby Mix is still not clear but that run was too bad to be true and I think he’s better judged on both his first start in this country and last Saturday’s win. No matter what happened at Cheltenham though, the form of that race has now been franked and both the ‘winner’ Pearl Swan and ‘runner-up’ Grumeti (placings reversed after a stewards enquiry) look to hold the strongest form lines in what has been described as a poor year for Juvenile Hurdlers. Grumeti also ran on Saturday at Kempton but took in the Grade 2 Dovecote Hurdle which is open to older horses. As it turned out, the older runners weren’t up to much and the 1-2-3 were all 4yo’s with Grumeti easily accounting for newcomer Dodging Bullets (received 7lb) from the Paul Nicholls yard. Alan Kings winner will now head to the Triumph with his confidence high and his fall at Newbury a distant memory.

Alan King also has Balder Succes in the Triumph and this one has won all 4 of his starts including 3 in this country where he has yet to come under any pressure. He won the Saturday before last in a decent all-aged Class 2 novice hurdle at Ascot and I wouldn’t be surprised if he proved the better of the two King horses come the end of the Season.

Over in Ireland the most hyped 4yo of the Season made his eagerly awaited debut on Saturday but it all went horribly wrong as Minsk was turned over at 4/6 and has since been ruled out of Cheltenham due to illness. This leaves the Grade 1 Spring Hurdle run a fortnight ago as the main Irish trial. It was won by the Dermot Weld trained Hisaabaat who had notched up a hat-trick of 2nd place finishes before scoring here. He reversed previous placings with both Sportsmaster (who under a typical McCoy ride may have had to much use made of him and would probably benefit from a more patient approach) and the race favourite Ut De Sivola (who the reverse may be true as he was never going and never in a challenging position) to score at 15/2. The runner up Shadow Catcher couldn’t match the finishing speed of the winner having taken up the running turning into the straight while the 3rd Countrywide Flame was always thereabouts without laying down a serious challenge.

Which means that although the ante-post market has been shaken up we still don’t have a clear favourite and no stand out candidate.

So where are the Priestley pounds going? Well, those of you who have been reading this blog for a while will know that I always give the Triumph Hurdle Trends away as a free guide and this year will be no different. The horse I fancy formwise also happens to be the horse with the most solid trends profile and he’ll be the one I invest on.

If you want a copy which comes with my selection and ratings then simply click the no obligation, one click, no payment, no details required link below…..

100% FREE TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS GUIDE

There is absolutely no catch whatsoever. You can download the guide with no obligation to susbscribe to any service or receive any unwanted emails. And it’s 100% FREE!

Good luck,
Gavin.

If however you do wish to susbcribe to the trends for Cheltenham then I’m sure we have a package to suit your needs…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

The first run sold out and I have just a few copies of the new batch remaining.

The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle which is the first race run at the Cheltenham Festival on March 13th.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get;

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

If you want a copy it costs just £14.95 (including P&P) and the book will be sent out straight away.

There’s now no need to join the Festival Trends service it’s a one click payment using the button below……

Good luck,
Gavin.

Wow, what a weekend of racing we’ve just had. From Newbury on Friday to Navan on Sunday with Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton sandwiched in between, there were performances of the highest order and Cheltenham clues by the bucketload.

So where do we start?

At the beginning is probably best and the Game Spirit Chase. Unfortunately my viewpoint of this race wasn’t the best as I was stuck in a traffic jam just outside Newbury and it was difficult to make out the runners stuck behind the Number 32 bus over a mile away. Listening to the commentary on my phone was the only option where it was apparent that Sprinter Sacre was different class to the rest of the field. Having since watched the race I can fully understand the hype surrounding his Arkle claims and he is a solid favourite but before you get stuck in to him at short odds it might just be worth watching him run in last years Supreme Novice Hurdle where he stopped very quickly when faced with the Cheltenham hill from the last hurdle. I’m So Lucky again caught my eye in third and I can’t wait for him to be dropped in class.

Still stuck behind the Number 32 bus and ‘enjoying’ our umpteenth game of eye-spy (TJ, traffic jam, C, car, B, bus, AC, another car…….) when Long Run scraped home by 1/2 length from Burton Port it meant another race commentary via my phone and a re-run later that evening when I got home. Again the Gold Cup winner lacked fluency in his jumping but I’d imagine that giving 10lb to the runner up will look a very decent performance come the end of the Season. I certainly haven’t given up on Long Run retaining his title come March and Burton Point looks a very live Gold Cup hope but looks an even better Grand National prospect.

Finally clear of the traffic jam we arrived at the course just as the runners were sent on their way for the Betfair Hurdle. Thanks to the wonders of modern technology and my good friend Matt (who had let the train take the strain and made it to the course on time) my wagers were in place. £25ew Ericht at 28/1, £25ew Raya Star at 12/1 with Bet365 and an antepost bet on Olofi at 14/1. I just made it to a vantage point as they jumped the last to see 2 of my 3 runners in with a chance. Olofi weakened into 5th under a less than inspiring ride from Paddy Brennan while Raya Star didn’t quite have the finishing pace of the eventual first two but finished a creditable 3rd. The latter looks one for the County Hurdle where Cheltenham should be right up his street. As for the winner, it was a bad result for the stats but a good result for the form readers who were right to think he was well handicapped off a rating of 151. He won’t ever run off that mark again but I’d wager that he’ll still be some way behind Hurricane Fly when he’s reassessed. It was clear to everyone that Darlan was going very well when coming down giving Tony McCoy a crashing fall and he entered a lot of notebooks but into my notebook will go Brampour who, after being quite some way behind the field for most of the race, stayed on very nicely up the home straight to finish 7th. He might be worth trying over further. In all the excitement I hadn’t realised I was stood watching the race next to Paul Nicholls. The moment Zarkander passed the post he scurried off back to the parade ring with plenty of hugs, back slapping and words of congratulations ringing in his ears looking a very relieved man.

After meeting up with Matt we ensconsed ourselves in the Premier Enclosure bar which suited my dad down to the ground as he had TV pictures, tote office and wine all within 10 yards of his newly claimed spot. I don’t think he ventured further than that for the rest of the afternoon. He was as happy as a pig in muck! I ventured a little further with a trip to the rails bookies to place my wager on the next. All The Aces is a horse that did me a few favours on the flat and his hurdles form looked pretty decent so I had £40 at 9/2 on him. That wasn’t the best £40 I’ve ever staked as he looked outpaced, outclassed and finished out with the washing. A longer trip and handicaps look to be his future. The winner, Montbazon, took it well but it’s hard to think he would have won had Colour Squadron stayed on his feet as that one was travelling very strongly at the time and he had already recorded a course and distance victory over Montbazon earlier in the season. If that fall hasn’t left too many scars he could be a player in the Supreme Novices and the 16/1 might be value each way.

The handicap hurdle that followed looked the weakest race of the day and I had it between the two novices Knock a Hand and Gullinbursti with the latter just getting the nod. Dylan had his pocket money each way on What An Oscar, which I forgot to back, so I was glad to see him finish second last. Despite getting 3/1 on the favourite and despite him running a great race it was still a losing race for me as he could never quite get on terms with my second choice, Knock A Hand. I doubt they’ll be any Cheltenham winners coming out of this race but the front two may well pick up more races before the season’s end.

Onto the Novice Chase and my best bet of the day, For Non Stop. I gave him on the blog, I bored everyone in the car going to the races, I told Matt and his friends before the race that he was going to win here and then win the Jewson Novice at Cheltenham but nobody took any notice. Except for Dylan who’s still young and naive enough to think that Daddy knows best. So I had £30 at 10/3 with Bet365, £40 at the same price with betfred and £60 at 7/2 with Ladbrokes on the rails. I promised Dylan £5 if he won. Under a brilliant ride from Noel Fehily he ran exactly as I had forseen and appreciated every yard of the trip to record an impressive victory. Dylan and I were in the stands jumping up and down like lunatics getting strange looks and heavy tutting from all and sundry. I guess they didn’t listen to me either. After finishing 2nd to Overturn, Cue Card and Al Ferof on his last 3 starts he certainly deserved this. Next stop Cheltenham where I will be backing him again.

We’d all made our mind up in the car that Shutthefrontdoor was our selection in the last and that Tony McCoy would be our saviour if things were looking bad at that stage. Luckily by this time things were looking good so I had £40 at a very generous 9/2 with Ladbrokes and again promised Dylan £5 if he won. What a race! What a ride! What a result! For me, that was the best ride I’ve seen all season and no other jockey riding over jumps today would have won on him. It was McCoy at his marvelous best and it’s even more amazing when you consider that just over 2 hours before he had suffered a horrendous fall that would have seen plenty of riders, justifiably, take the rest of the day off. I would gladly have paid the entry fee to have witnessed that ride alone. As it was 12,500 people got to see it for free and I doubt anyone went home feeling they had wasted an afternoon (even if they had sat in a traffic jam for 2 hours to get there).

If Sprinter Sacre was the star of the show on Friday then it was another Henderson inmate that stole the limelight on Saturday. Binocular returned to his very best when trouncing Celestial Halo and Starluck in the Kingwell Hurdle under Tony McCoy with a performance that might just give Hurricane Fly’s connections something to think about. The 2010 Champion Hurdle winner has had his problems over the last few seasons but when he’s on song he is a top class hurdler who we know acts around Cheltenham. If he turns up in March in this kind of form it’s difficult to see him finishing out of the frame.

Yet another Henderson horse to book his Cheltenham place was Riverside Theatre who took the Betfair Chase for the second year running. He never made the Festival last year as he got injured and Saturday was his first outing since beating Gauvain by 10 lengths in the 2010 running. He now heads for the Ryanair Chase as a fancied runner but he’s not for me as that race is shaping up into a very strong renewal with plenty of worthy Grade 1 opponents. Kauto Stone was very disappointing and doesn’t look worth a rating of 162 while Gauvain was well beaten in the Ryanair last year after his 2nd to Riverside Theatre and doesn’t seem to have improved any.

One Henderson horse who didn’t enhance his Cheltenham claims was Bobs Worth who was firmly put in his place by Invictus in the Reynoldstown Chase although it is worth noting that he gave the winner 3lb. Silvianaco Conti was another Nicholls runner to run poorly and despite his Zarkander winning on Friday it wasn’t the best weekend of his training career. In fact, 1 winner from 31 runners over Friday and Saturday was a very poor return especially with 16 of them returning at odds of 5/1 or shorter. Invictus apparently lost a shoe when getting beat by Champion Court at Cheltenham on New Years Day so could be excused that run and it’s difficult to see why Bobs Worth is trading at half his odds for the RSA Chase. 12/1 Invictus might not be that bad a bet on a strict reading of this race and the Grand Crus/Silvianaco Conti/Bobs Worth form lines.

Connections of Big Bucks won’t have lost any sleep over the weekend with 2 horses he has consistently beaten Restless Harry and Cross Kennon fighting out the Rendlesham. The rest of the fancied runners in that race found the step up from handicap company too much and will no doubt be returning to that field on their next starts. Smad Place was another runner trying to show he was good enough to graduate from handicaps and challenge Big Bucks but was beaten by the novice Bourne. Giving 26lb to the winner over a trip that might prove a bit short for him in the long term was a decent performance but not good enough to scare the reigning champ. My 50/1 each way may still make the places. If there was nothing stepping up to the plate in this country then it was the same story in Ireland yesterday where Mourad (already soundly beaten by Big Bucks this Season) beat Mikhael D’Haguenet in the Boyne Hurdle and leaves just Oscar Whiskey as the only real threat to Big Bucks winning his fourth World Hurdle in March.

Balder Success did his Triumph Hurdle prospects no harm with an eased down win against his elders in the Ascot novice hurdle. He’s now unbeaten in 4 starts and has the look of an old style Triumph Hurdler rather than the lightly raced versions that have been winning the race recently. Since arriving from France his wins have looked very impressive but there has to be some doubts as to just what the standard of opposition has been. He’ll no doubt give a good account of himself in the big race itself but be warned that connections are toying with the idea of running him in the Supreme Novices. Nicky Henderson (that man again!) won the big 4yo novice at Haydock with his French import Une Artiste but the performance didn’t strike me as all that great and quotes of 25/1 for the Triumph are surely down to his connections rather than this run.

Brindisi Breeze has won his last two hurdles on testing ground and received quotes of 12/1 for the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham after the latest of those victories on Saturday. He’s obviously a decent horse but his only defeat came on good ground and he’s unlikely to get his favoured conditions at Cheltenham in March.

Which just leaves a couple of Grade 2 races from Navan yesterday. The 3m Novice Chase was one of the strangest races you’ll see all season and eventually went to the 50/1 outsider Lion Na Bernai who looked an unlikely winner jumping the last. The favourite Berties Dream clobbered the last and was immediately eased to come home in his own time while the 3 co second favourites all decided to spend the run from the second last giving the race away to each other only for the 50/1 rag fight back and beat them all.

Unsurprisingly the result did little to alter the RSA Chase antepost market. A comment that also applies to the Flying Bolt where former decent hurdler Donnas Palm took the spoils. Although the race was over 2m1f he doesn’t have an entry in the Arkle and quotes of 66/1 for the RSA Chase are a fair reflection of his chances in that.

So that leaves us as we started, with Sprinter Sacre looking a rock solid, good thing for the Arkle.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. For those who are interested, Inter Penarth won their game 4-2 on Saturday with Dylan scoring a hat-trick. That’s 29 goals so far this Season for our little goal scoring champ.

After Wednesday’s kick in the guts with Last Installment being declared a non runner for the Festival (why did it take until Wednesday for connections to enlighten us?) it appears my luck isn’t that great at the moment. So the last thing I should be doing is trying to go through the card at such a competitive meeting! It’s probably a day to note horses for the future rather than get stuck in to some of these but you can’t go racing without having a bet can you? Well I can’t anyway!

I won’t be betting much but these are the ones that will be carrying my money….

12.10

If Sprinter Sacre is as good as they say he is then he should be able to win this in receipt of 5lb from his main rival, and stablemate, French Opera who is also without a run so far this Season. When even Gary tells me he’s one of the best novices he’s seen and he’s not looking for something to beat the favourite either here or at the Festival then I guess it’s time to take notice. We won’t get rich backing him but he looks a safe bet to start the meeting off with a winner.

12.40

This should also go to a Nicky Henderson well fancied runner and put Long Run back on course to defend his Gold Cup crown in March. It will be very disappointing if he gets beaten here today. It should be quite an informative race with Burton Port making his eagerly awaited reappearance and to see just how much The Giant Bolster has improved after his latest handicap romp.

1.15

The Betfair Hurdle sees a firm favourite in Zarkander who the world and his wife seem to think is a handicap good thing. That’s as may be and a rating of 151 could prove generous but there are a few things that make him worth taking on. Not least of which is that trainer Paul Nicholls hasn’t even managed a placed horse in the race for at least the last 12 years. There’s also the small matter of him not having run yet this season and it’s hardly the easiest race of the year to be making a winning re-appearance in. And that’s before you see that no horse has managed to defy a rating over 149 since at least 1998. The trends however weren’t much use in narrowing down the field as 10 of the 20 runners passed all the main stats. I’m not sure what I’m going to back in the race just yet but whatever it is it will be a horse towards the bottom of the weights (Raya Star down).

1.50

Another race where I’ll be backing Nicky Henderson and All the Aces. I liked this one on the flat, where he was rated 115 at his prime, and he’s certainly took to hurdling with a second to Prospect Wells and an easy win over Destroyer Deployed on his two NH starts. Both of those runs have come at Newbury so we know he goes around here and I’m hopeful of another big run today.

2.25

Another tricky race to get stuck into and one in which I’ll be siding with the novice Gullinbursti in. He’s looked a bit of a handful on his first 2 runs over hurdles but seemed to get the hang of things on his last start which saw him finish second in a Grade 2 Novice behind a Paul Nicholls runner. A rating of 134 is okay and he should run well for my small stakes.

2.55

I like For Non Stop who has been pitched in at the deep end on his last 2 chase starts with seconds behind Al Ferof and Cue Card. It isn’t much easier this afternoon but the 2m4f trip should be perfect as should the ground. Dangers are a plenty including an old favourite of mine Walkon who brings some of the best form to the race although he did finish behind the selection last time out.

3.30

NH Flat races aren’t my bag and I’ll just be having a small interest in the race on the Jonjo trained Shut The Front Door

Good luck,
Gavin.

If you enjoyed the Cheltenham Jockey and Trainer Stats I published last week on the blog I have put them together in a pdf book which you can download for FREE by clicking below…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/cheltfestjocktrain2012.pdf

This is a one click, direct link with no sign-ups or details required. It’s 100% FREE.

Download it, put it to one side and then get it back out for the Festival.

Good luck.

——————

WEEKLY EYECATCHER

A great result for the service last week with the only horse noted, Caledonia Prince, scoring in the race I highlighted on the Friday at Southwell. Young jockey Josh Baudains rode another great race and the 4 length win was never in doubt. The biggest surprise was the 5/2 it returned as I honestly thought it would be nearer 6/4. I’m certainly not complaining as it was my only bet of last week and it paid for my weekend visit to see my mum down in Devon.

Again, last weeks racing was badly affected by the weather which meant there wasn’t too much to get excited about so it was off over the Irish Sea to take a look at their Grade 1′s at Leopardstown on Sunday. I think we can conclude that the Irish won’t be winning the Triumph with any runner from the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, or indeed the Gold Cup with Quel Esprit et al from the Hennessy Gold Cup, after the results of those two races. We can also probably assume that Tony Martin has been kicking himself every day since Sunday after ruining any hopes of a handicap coup with Benefficient by winning the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle at 50/1.

But one horse who mot certainly could win at Cheltenham is the novice chaser Last Instalment who took the Dr PJ Moriarty by a length and a half. It’s been a long time since I saw a novice jump as quickly and as fluently as he did on Sunday. As Call The Police beared down on him coming to the last it looked as if he may have been caught but a great leap at the last, a couple of slaps and he asserted his authority to win a shade comfortably at the line.

With the last two (sorry 3! See comments) winners of the RSA Chase at Cheltenham having come out of this race (Weapons Amnesty and Bostons Angel) he is a definite challenger to Grand Crus and if he jumps anything like he did on Sunday I can’t see him being out of the first three come March.

Kai Mook, who was one of the first horses on the HTF list, runs in the 4.30 Lingfield today.

———-

It’s great to see that Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle card has been re-arranged for this Friday and it’s even better that they’re letting everyone in for free. So if you want to see some fantastic horses (Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Long Run) and you can get to Newbury there’s nothing else stopping you.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a run through the card to see if I can help you pick a winner or two…

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. My festival trends offer is still available. Pay £25 now and then 3 more monthly instalments to get EVERY trends guide we produce this year. That’s over 50 guides and well over 250 races including all 26 races at the Cheltenham Festival. Sign up below and get the Betfair Hurdle from Newbury on Friday as your first trends race…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

With Newbury abandoned it means we have been robbed of what promised to be a cracking and informative card. I hope the BHA are able to reschedule this important card but with Cheltenham looming large they’re going to be pushed to fit it in as trainers won’t want to run their horses too close to the Festival. Let’s hope the weather relents and the sponsors and racing powers are able to get something sorted.

So on another bleak and depressing day let’s have a look at the Jockey Stats for Cheltenham 2012….

RUBY WALSH

With the backing of Paul Nicholls and some of the leading Irish trainers, including Willie Mullins, it’s no surprise to see him as the top jockey at the meeting since 2006.
Ruby Walsh has ridden 24 winners from 118 rides (20.3%) over the last six Cheltenham Festivals including an amazing 7 winners in 2009. Backing all his runners over this period would have won you £10.63 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 19 (wins / runners)  
2007 3 / 19 
2008 3 / 21 
2009 7 / 20
2010 3 / 21
2011 5 / 18

Hurdles  16 winners from 61 rides
Chases 8 winners from 51 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 6 rides

23 of his 24 winners were at odds of 10/1 or less. Those 23 winners were all from the front 4 in the betting.

21 of his 24 winners won their last race (from 63 such rides.)

23 of his 24 winners had won at least one of their last two starts.

Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have provided Ruby Walsh with 106 of his 118 rides and he has won on 23 of them.

If you had simply backed all of Ruby Walsh’s rides that had won their last start,and were 10/1 or shorter in the betting you would have had 21 winners from 56 rides (37.5%) and made a LSP of +£43.13 over the last 6 Festivals.

PADDY BRENNAN

Paddy Brennan has ridden 6 winners from 83 rides (7.2%) and rode at least 1 a year from 2006 – 2010. Backing all his runners since 2006 would have won you a healthy £15 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 14 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 14 
2008 1 / 13 
2009 1 / 17
2010 2 / 14
2011 0 / 11

Hurdles  3 winners from 42 rides
Chases 3 winners from 40 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 1 rides

There’s not too much to go on with regard to Brennan’s winners as he’s had quite a few different types of horse win for him. Probably the most striking is that 5 of the 6 were on horses aged 7-9yo (from 42 rides) with just 1 winner from his other 41 rides on runners outside this age bracket (1 from 32 on 4-6yo. 0 from 9 on those aged 10 years+).

RICHARD JOHNSON

With the Phillip Hobbs stable under performing at Cheltenham recently it’s not surprising to see  Richard Johnson struggle here with just 6 winners from 78 rides (7.7%) but things have started to change for the better with 4 winners from 24 rides at the last 2 Festivals.. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £4.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 16 (wins / runners)  
2007 1 / 14 
2008 0 / 12 
2009 0 / 12
2010 2 / 12
2011 2 / 12

Hurdles  3 winners from 38 rides
Chases 2 winners from 36 rides
NH Flat 1 winners from 4 rides

All 6 of his winners came in races up to 2m5f in distance with all 20 of his rides beyond this trip getting beat (just 3 placed). His 12 rides starting at 28/1 or bigger have all been beaten but he has had three such horses placed for him. All 6 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous start (25 losers finished 4th or worse). He rode all of his 6 winners in their previous race (from 55 such rides) with the 23 horses he replaced a different jockey all getting beat. All 6 of his winners were trained by Phillip Hobbs with his 22 outside rides all losing.

He’s ridden 19 horses carrying 10-11 or less and has lost on them all. It’s the same story for the 16 rides with 11-10 or more. The 14 horses aged 9 and over he’s been aboard have all been beaten (just 3 placed).

A P McCOY

The great Tony McCoy hasn’t been smiling too much at recent Cheltenham Festivals although he has managed to ride at least 1 winner a year since 2006 and 10 winners in total from his 111 rides at the meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £50.37 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 20 (wins / runners) 
2007 1 / 18 
2008 1 / 19 
2009 1 / 18 
2010 2 / 19
2011 2 / 17

Hurdles  4 winners from 53 rides
Chases 6 winners from 52 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 6 rides

All 6 of his rides at 3m2f or further have been beaten. He hasn’t had a winner on the Wednesday of the meeting for at least 8 years (33 rides). He’s had 20 handicap hurdle losers from 20 rides since 2006. All 31 of the 4 & 5yo’s he’s ridden in this time period have been beaten.

He’s ridden 80 horses that have started in the first 4 of the betting and he’s won on just 8 of them (all 1st or 2nd favourites).

9 of his 10 winners finished in the first 2 on their previous start (7 won).

ROBERT THORNTON

Another jockey who has suffered thanks to the poor form of his principal trainer. He went 38 rides at the Festival without a winner from 2008-2011 until Bensalem got him back in the winners enclosure last year. Despite that, since 2006 Robert Thornton has ridden 10 winners from 88 rides (11.4%) and backing all his runners over this period would have only lost you £4 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2005 2 / 14 (wins / runners) 
2007 4 / 13 
2008 3 / 16 
2009 0 / 13 
2010 0 / 17
2011 1 / 15

Hurdles  5 winners from 51 rides
Chases 5 winners from 34 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 3 rides

Not a lot to go on but all 42 of his rides that were 16/1 or bigger have been beaten with just 3 making the frame. 9 of his 10 winners made the top 3 on their last run (exception fell) and 8 had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts. Alan King has provided him with 8 of his wins from 70 rides.

If you missed the trainers for Cheltenham in yesterdays post you can read them here…..

http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham-trainers-2012/

Good luck,
Gavin.

We’re now less than 5 weeks away from the Cheltenham Festival and with little happening on the jumps front until at least the weekend (fingers crossed Newbury passes any inspections) I thought I’d update the Jockeys and Trainers Guide I produced last year. We’ll start with the trainers and follow up with the jockeys tomorrow.

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Since 2006 Nigel Twiston-Davies has had just 6 winners from 102 runners (5.9%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £33.50 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 9
2008 1 / 18
2009 2 / 19
2010 3 / 21
2011 0 / 18

NEGATIVES

• All 30 of his runners on the Tuesday of the meeting have been beaten

• A staggering 53 of his 102 runners have been sent off as rank outsiders at 28/1 or higher and all 53 have been beaten. Just 4 made the frame (but none of those 3 were 66/1 or bigger)

• All 28 of his runners to have finished 7^th or worse on their last run have been beaten

• All 12 of his runners that fell or pulled up last time out ran unplaced at the Cheltenham Festival

• All 13 of his 4 & 5yo runners have been beaten and so have all 11 aged 11 or older

• All 21 runners that had their last run in the previous 19 days have been beaten

• All 21 horses that were ridden by jockeys claiming in the race were beaten

 POSITIVES

• 5 of his 6 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting (51 runners)

• 5 of his 6 winners came in chase events

• 5 of his 6 winners were weighted within just 4lb of the bottom weight in the race

• All 6 of his winners had their last run in the previous 20-90 days

Paddy Brennan has ridden 4 of Twiston-Davies’s 6 winners from 41 rides for the stable. All were on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting.

PAUL NICHOLLS

The champion trainer has had 20 winners from 191 runners at a strike rate of just 10.5%.

You would have lost £59.44 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3/ 29 (wins / runs) 2007 4 / 34 2008 3 / 34 2009 5 / 35 2010 2 / 31 2011 3/28 

NEGATIVES 

• For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to do very well on the first day of the meeting as he has only had the 2 winners from his 40 runners on the Tuesday.

• Races at 3m4f or further are also not his forte as he hasn’t had any winners at these extended distances from 13 runners in the last 6 years.

• All 5 of his Bumper runners have been beaten

• All 27 runners he’s had in the Class 2 contests held at the Festival have been beaten.

• Forget his rank outsiders as all 35 of his horses trading at 28/1 or bigger have been beaten and he’s had just 1 winner from 75 runners that were 16/1 or bigger

• From his 53 runners who had finished 4^th or worse last time out he’s had just the one winner.

• All 16 horses he sent to the Festival aged 10 or older have been beaten (just 3 placed). He’s only had 3 winners from 55 runners that were aged 8 or older.

• All 18 horses that were trying to defy a break of 91 days or more since their last run have been beaten.

• All 24 horses ridden by a jockey claiming an allowance in the race have been beaten.

• Christian Williams has had 14 rides for Paul Nicholls at the Festival over the last 6 years and failed to make the frame on all of them.

 And finally a very interesting stat….. all 39 of his runners carrying 13lb or more than the bottom weight in the race have been beaten. Only 5 of these runners were placed.

POSITIVES

• All 20 winners came in Class 1 contests (from 164 runners)

• 17 of his 20 winners won last time out (19/20 were in the top 3 last time out)

• 18 of his 20 winners were 1^st or 2^nd favourite last time out

• His 4 and 5yo’s have given him 8 winners from their 52 runners and returned a level stakes profit of +£22.50 (forget the NH Flat runners to make it +£27.50)

• 19 of his 20 winners had been rested between 20 – 90 days since their last run.

Not surprisingly, Ruby Walsh has ridden the majority of Paul Nicholls’s 20 winners with 15 of them (from 71 rides). He shows a level stakes profit of £12.80 for the stable. All 20 of his rides in handicap chases at the Festival have been beaten.

So forget backing him when he rides for the stable on the Tuesday and don’t bet him on the Nicholls’ handicap chasers. Following these two simple rules would have given you 16 winners from 51 rides and a level stakes profit of £31.18 over the last 8 years. You would also have backed at least 1 winner every year at the Festival since 2004!

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2006 Nicky Henderson has had 11 winners from 179 runners (6.1%) at the Cheltenham Festival but backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just £43.79 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 3 / 23 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 23
2008 0 / 20
2009 3 / 32
2010 3 / 38
2011 2 / 43

NEGATIVES

• All 31 runners that were trying a shorter trip here at Cheltenham compared to their previous run got beat

• All 23 of Nicky Henderson’s horses that carried 10-07 or less were beaten with just 2 making the frame.

• All 22 female horses that ran from the Henderson stable have been beaten

• All 10 horses that Fell or Pulled Up on their previous run failed to win at Cheltenham

• His record with horses coming off a break of 61 days or more is 1 win from 49

• His record in Novice races is 1 win from 37 runners (including 0/16 in nov h’caps)

• He’s had 32 horses start as 1^st or 2^nd favourite and only 3 have won

POSITIVES

• All of his winners were returned 25/1 or under with the 33 horses starting at bigger odds getting beat (though 3 were placed).

• All 11 of his winners had raced either once or twice in the last 3 months.

• 8 of his 11 winners were running over the same trip or just 1 furlong extra compared to their previous start (from 99 runners)

Tony McCoy has had one winner for the stable from 18 rides. Andrew Tinkler has also had one winner but from 22 rides. Marcus Foley is 0 from 10.

Not surprisingly Barry Gerraghty has ridden the most winners for the stable with 5 wins from 49 rides and a Level Stakes Profit of £5.37.

All of those winners were 4-6yo hurdlers.and backing Gerraghty under those conditions would have given you 5 winners (and 5 places) from 23 rides and a win LSP of +£31.37.

Backing all male Henderson runners up to 2m5f that weren’t dropped in trip, carried 10-08 or more and weren’t in Novice races would have given you the 9 winners from 63 runners and a very impressive Level Stakes profit of +£64.83.

(Forgetting those runners above 25/1 would have saved you a further 10 bets.)

PHILLIP HOBBS

Phillip Hobbs seems to be staging a bit of a comeback at Cheltenham as he’s managed 4 winners at the last 2 Festivals after a sticky period at the end of the last decade. His figures now read 6 winners from 104 runners (5.8%). Backing all his runners since 2006 would have lost you £30.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 15
2008 0 / 16
2009 0 / 17
2010 2 / 21
2011 2 / 18

NEGATIVES

• All 20 of his runners in Class 2 races have been beaten

• All 36 of his runners that finished 4^th or worse in their last race were beaten

• The 24 horses he ran that were aged 9 or over were all beaten

• The 33 runners of his that were rested 61 days or more since their last run all got beat

• The 17 horses ridden by jockeys able to claim an allowance were all beaten

POSITIVES

• All 6 of his winners have come in races up to 2m5f in distance (32 losers at 3m+)

• All 6 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous run

• All 6 of his winners carried between 10-12 and 11-09 (50 losers outside this weight bracket)

• All 6 of his winners last ran in the previous 60 days.

Richard Johnson has ridden all 6 of Phillip Hobbs’s winners from 56 rides for the stable.

DAVID PIPE

His Dad dominated the Cheltenham Festival during his illustrious training career and it looks as if Pipe Jnr is beginning to follow in his fathers footsteps. Since taking over the stable in 2006 David Pipe has had 7 winners from 128 runners (5.5%) at this meeting. The strike rate may be low but 7 winners at such a highly competitive meeting is promising. You would however have lost £48.16 backing all his runners over this period to £1 stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2007 1 / 26 (wins / runners) 2008 2 / 26 2009 0 / 32 2010 2 / 21 2011 2 / 23

There’s not too much to go on but all 7 winners were 25/1 or under in races up to 3m1f.

It’s also best to keep an eye on jockeys coming in for a spare ride as stable jockeys Tim Murphy and Tom Scudamore have only ridden 1 winner apiece on David Pipe runners from 31 and 46 rides respectively.

Miss VENETIA WILLIAMS

She managed just 3 winners from 65 runners (4.6%) but thanks to some big priced winners is able to show a level stakes loss of just -£1.00

Her record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 8 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 13
2008 0 / 8
2009 2 / 17
2010 0 / 9
2011 0 / 10

All 3 of her winners came in Class 1 handicaps (not novice) on the Thursday of the meeting over 2m4f – 3m1f. All of them had finished in the top 4 on their previous runs.

She’s only had 7 similar runners over the years for those 3 winners at a LSP of +£57.00

FERDY MURPHY

You can usually rely on Ferdy Murphy to have at least one winner at the meeting with his only blank coming in 2009 . He’s had 7 winners from just 53 runners (13.2%) since 2006 and shows a whopping £121 profit to £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 2 / 10 (wins / runners)
2007 2 / 8
2008 1 / 7
2009 0 / 10
2010 1 / 10
2011 1 / 8

NEGATIVES

• All 13 of his runners up to 2m 1f have been beaten

• He’s had all 3 of his favourites beaten

• All 3 of his horses that were 66/1 or bigger were unplaced

POSTIVES

• All his winners were aged 7 – 10 (37 such runners)

• All of his winners had been rested for at least 26 days

• 5 of his 7 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out (just 21 such runners)

• All 7 of his winners came in races of 16 runners or more

If you had backed Ferdy Murphy’s runners at 2m4f or further that were aged 7 – 10 you would have had all 7 winners from 26 runners and made an absolutely amazing £148 profit to £1 Level Stakes.

These runners finished: P01101412741P3PP4016P0612P

ALAN KING

He had quite a bit of success at the track up to 2008 but his well documented troubles over the last few seasons have rather damaged his overall figures. He’s still had a respectable 10 winners from 119 runners (8.4%) but you would have recorded a level stakes loss of £39.50.

His overall record looks like this……

2006 2 / 16 (wins / runners)
2007 3 / 17
2008 3 / 18
2009 1 / 25
2010 0 / 21
2011 1 / 22

NEGATIVES

• All of his last 38 handicap (including novice h’cap) hurdle runners have been beaten

• All 86 of his runners starting at 11/1 or bigger have been beaten

• All 10 of his runners ridden by a claiming jockey have been beaten (just one placed)

POSITIVES

• 6 of his 10 winners came at 2miles – 2m1f (from 44 such runners)

• 9 of his 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out

• 6 of his 10 winners carried 11-06 or more

• All 9 of his winners carried within 8lb of the bottom weight

• 8 of his winners were aged 5-7yo (70 runners)

• All of his 10 winners had been rested at least 20 days since their last run

• All of his 10 winners had run between 5 – 20 times in their NH careers

Robert Thornton has ridden the majority of winners for the stable with 8 from 70 rides. All 8 winners finished in the top 2 last time out, or failed to complete, and were 10/1 or under. Following these 2 simple rules would have given you 8 winners from 18 rides and an impressive £43.50 level stakes profit.

Assuming his recent troubles are behind him then the type of Alan King horses we should be looking for are those starting at 10/1 or under that finished in the top 2 last time out.

Since 2006 he’s had 25 such runners and 9 winners (36%) for a Level Stakes Profit of £48.50. 15 of the 25 were at least placed.

Bizarrely, the 6 runners satisfying this criteria that started favourite were all beaten including one at odds-on.

 JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has had at least one winner at the Festival every year since 2006. In total he’s had 8 winners from 99 runners (8.1%). Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £6.62 at £1 level stakes. His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 1 / 21 (wins / runners)
2007 3 / 19
2008 1 / 12
2009 1 / 17
2010 1 / 17
2011 1 / 13

NEGATIVES

• All 20 of his winners running in distance up to 2m1f have been beaten

• All 16 of his 4 and 5yo runners have been beaten. ALL were unplaced.

• All 13 of his runners carrying 10-07 or less were beaten (though 4 were placed)

• All 22 of his runners that had run in the previous 25 days were beaten

• All 15 runners ridden by a claiming jockey were beaten

POSITIVES

• All 8 winners were aged 6 – 10yo

• 7 of his 8 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting

• 4 of his winners started favourite (from 10 runners)

• 5 of his winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start

• 7 of his 8 winners carried top-weight or equal top weight (40 runners)

• All 8 of his winners had won within their last 4 starts

Tony McCoy has ridden 6 (1 in each year since 2006) of the O’Neill winners from his 34 rides (17.6%) for a small level stakes profit of £3.37.

All 6 winners were over a distance of 2m4f – 3m1f and had been rested at least 25 days since their last run. Backing all such runners would have given you the 6 winners from 16 runners and a Level Stakes Profit of £21.37. 4 of these winners started favourite (from 8 such runners.)

If you forget backing Jonjo’s runners in handicaps and concentrate on his 6-10yo’s that carry top weight (or equal top weight) on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting you would have had 7 winners from 23 runners and made a very impressive +£63.37 Level Stakes Profit. 

THE IRISH TRAINERS……

WILLIE MULLINS

Willie Mullins has had at least one winner every year since 2007 and 12 winners from 117 runners (10.3%) in total since 2006. He shows a small level stakes profit of +33p.

His record for the last 6 years has been….

2006 0 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 14
2008 2 / 11
2009 3 / 21
2010 2 / 29
2011 4 / 25

NEGATIVES

• Only 1 of his last 24 runners in the Bumper has been successful

• P. Townend is 0 from 30 on his rides for the stable

• All 11 of his 4yo runners have been beaten

• All 23 of his runners aged 8yo or older have been beaten

• All 6 of his runners starting at 66/1 or bigger were unplaced

POSITIVES

• All 12 of his winners were aged 5-7yo

• All 12 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts

• 10 of his 12 winners returned favourite on their previous run

• 10 of his 12 winners won last time out

• 10 of his 12 winners were in hurdle races

• 11 of his 12 winners came in races up to a distance of 2m5f

Ruby Walsh has ridden 8 winners from 35 mounts. All 8 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts and were 10/1 or under in the betting. Backing these runners you would have had 8 winners from 21 rides and a LSP of +£15.83

By backing all Mullins 5-7yo hurdlers up to 2m5f, that had won at least 1 of their last two starts would have given you 10 winners from 21 runners (47.6%) and a level stakes profit of +£80.08. 

DERMOT WELD

Dermot Weld hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 17 runners stretching all the way back to 2005.

NOEL CHANCE

Likewise, Noel Chance hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 8 runners going back to 2005 although 5 of the 8 have been placed.

E J O’GRADY

His last winner at the Festival came in 2006 and he’s had 26 losers since then.

DESSIE HUGHES

Another trainer who’s been suffering over the last few years with just 3 placed horses from 26 runners. His last winner at the Festival was in 2005.

A J MARTIN

Tony Martin hasn’t had a winner since 2006 and has had 16 losers in the last 5 years.

MRS JOHN HARRINGTON

Jessica Harrington pops up with a winner every now and again and won with Bostons Angel last year a 16/1. Her record since 2004 is 3 winners from 34 runners for a LSL of -£8

C. BYRNES

He’s had 2 winners from 14 runners since 2006 courtesy of Weapons Amnesty who won at the Festival in both 2009 and 2010.

PAUL NOLAN

He’s had 2 winner (2005 Dariboun at 20/1 and 2011 Noble Prince at 4-1) plus 1 placed horse from 16 runners since 2006. He shows a LSP of +£10.00

HENRY de BROMHEAD

Going back to 2005 he’s had 14 runners for 3 winners but with those 3 winners coming at the last 2 Festivals from just 7 runners he’s worth noting. Only 6 of his total runners started at odds of 10/1 or under so it’s probably best to simply concentrate on his fancied horses.

Those at 10/1 or under have finished: 010113

As always I’ll make it into a PDF file which you can download on Sunday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

WEEKLY EYECATCHERS

With very little decent racing taking place in Britain last week there wasn’t much to get excited about but I did note one horse that ran very well on the all weather at a big price.

Caledonia Prince ran at Southwell last Tuesday and was ridden by a 7lb claimer, Josh Baudains, who I know very little about. He has according to the Racing Post had 5 winners from 26 AW rides though and a 19% strike rate is very decent for any jockey let alone one who is just starting out. He might be worth noting for future reference. Anyway he gave Caledonia Prince a cracking ride and after running a little wide on the bend came home very strongly after appearing to be a little outpaced when the tempo lifted. He was beaten a shorthead at 33/1 but there was 4 lengths back to the third horse and this looked a great run for a horse who probably wants a mile and had been off since the middle of last October. The horse won a mile class 5 handicap at Southwell last August with the same 7lb claimer onboard off a rating of 52. He is currently rated 53 and as he didn’t get raised for this second he will be of great interest when running in any mile handicap at Southwell.

Which is where he looks to be heading as he has an entry for a 1m class 6 handicap at Southwell on Friday.

———————-

4 Champions

The bookies are running scared and their losses are set to be huge (well that’s what they’re saying anyway) should last seasons 4 reigning champions retain their crowns at Cheltenham in March.

Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Big Bucks have all run in their trials and have all won in impressive style while Long Run is set to have his comeback run in the Denman chase at Newbury on Saturday. Should he win easily there the bookies will be slashing the price of the favourites even further. Currently they offer 20/1 on those 4 horses winning their respective races at Cheltenham and I for one think that offers a little bit of value.

Put it this way, which of these would you say has more chance-  Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run all winning at the Festival or Tottenham winning the Premiership this Season? Even a die hard Spurs fan would have to admit that they face an impossible task to catch both Manchester clubs after last nights draw and I know which one I’d rather be on at 20/1 but lets have a look at the pros and cons for each……

CHAMPION HURDLE: HURRICANE FLY

PROS – He won last years Champion Hurdle with style, guts and class with only Peddlers Cross able to get a challenge in. That one’s now gone chasing and leaves last years 3rd Oscar Whiskey, 4th Thousand Stars and 7th Overturn trying to reverse over 6 length, 8 length and 16 length defeats. It’s a tall order and on all known form looks highly unlikely. So what of the new band of hurdlers? Grandouet and Zarkander are the most likely dangers according to the betting but 5yo’s have a terrible record in the Champion with 2008 winner Katchit being the only one to win in the last 26 years (the great See You Then was the last before him in 1985). They’re both very decent hurdlers but may need another year to challenge The Fly for top honours. Binocular is quite prominent in the betting and was unable to run in last years Champion due to a mix up with his medication but he did run at the Punchestown Festival where Hurricane Fly slammed him by 9 lengths. Hurricane Fly was off the track after that run until the end of last month where he made his comeback in the Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle. Any doubts about his fitness and wellbeing were swiftly brushed aside as he put up one of the most impressive performances in a Grade 1 hurdle for a very long time. Without coming off the bridle he beat three very decent hurdles with contemptous ease. His jumping is safe and form wise he looks bomb-proof.

CONS – Which leaves the only chink in his armour being his fragility. He missed the Festival in both 2009 and again in 2010 as he wasn’t quite right and although he had a clear run throughout the 2010-2011 Season including his Champion Hurdle victory it was a little worrying that he missed a number of engagements throughout the Winter leading up to his comeback run at the end of January. The only way you can be sure of him taking part in the race is actually seeing him line-up as the tapes go up for the start of the race. Until then it’s a case of keeping your fingers crossed he stays sound.

Conclusion: If he lines up then there’s not much that can stop him retaining his crown.

CHAMPION CHASE – SIZING EUROPE

PROS – His trainer has finally given up trying to get 3 miles with him and has resigned himself to the fact that he’ll just have to have the best 2 mile chaser in Europe instead (aahh what a shame!). Which is good news for the horse and even better news for us punters as he is indeed the best current 2 mile chaser and his 5 length demolition of Big Zeb in last years Champion Chase proved it. That came on the back of probably his worst run over fences in the Irish Champion Chase where he was beaten into 3rd by Golden Silver and Big Zeb. There were no mistakes in this years running of that race as he slammed Big Zeb by 15 lengths and goes to Cheltenham in much better form all round. With many of the runners in the betting market having alternative targets at the meeting we could end up with a small field here with only one or two serious rivals to Sizing Europe. At this stage it looks up to Big Zeb, who seems to be regressing and unlikely to reverse form in March, and Finians Rainbow to lay down the challenge. Finians Rainbow was outstayed at Ascot last time by Somersby and on the whole his form, including his second in last years Arkle, doesn’t look good enough. On official ratings he has 9lb to find with Sizing Europe.

CONS – Errrr, not many. He did run the worst race of his life in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival of 2008 when coming home last of the 14 finishers as the 2/1 favourite. If the ground should come up good/firm or harder he could struggle (only run on G/F going finished 5th/8) but those conditions are unlikely in March.

Conclusion: It’s difficult to find a reason as to why he can’t win here. Moscow Flyer won this as an 11yo so age is no barrier, he has never fallen in a chase so jumping should be no problem, he’s won over fences twice here so Cheltenham holds no fear, he’s won on soft, heavy and good so should get favourable ground conditions and his main rival from last Season was beaten out of sight in their prep race for this. Another Champion with rock solid claims.

WORLD HURDLE – BIG BUCKS

PROS – He’s the best staying hurdler in Europe and the best for quite some time, if not all-time. He’s beaten every challenger that’s tackled him over the past 3 Seasons and is running out of worthy opponents . His winning run now extends to 15 straight wins and in those victories he has shown class, guts and determination and despite sometimes hitting a flat spot and looking in trouble he has always been able to pull out something extra. A truly admirable champion.

CONS – Two words, Oscar Wiskey. Last years Champion Hurdle 3rd has never raced against Big Bucks and is the last hope of the upcoming staying hurdlers to knock over the Champion. His form is knowhere near as good as Big Bucks (beat Poungach last time out) but he is only rated 7lb below him on official ratings and as he has a great record around Cheltenham and looks sure to appreciate a further step up in trip to 3 miles it’s not impossible to argue that there’s further improvement to come.

Conclusion: If he runs to anywhere near his best, which he’ll need to, then he’ll win World Hurdle number 4 and record his 16th straight win.

GOLD CUP – LONG RUN

PROS – He won the race last year dispelling any doubts that Cheltenham isn’t his track. The 3m2f trip is ideal for him and as he is only a 7yo he stil has plenty of improvement left. He can be excused his defeat first time out as his trainer warned before the race that he needed the run as his two targets this Season were the King George and Gold Cup. That he got beat at Kempton was obviously disappointing for connections but he was staying on all the way to the line and had 17 lengths and upwards on the rest of the field. His victor that day Kauto Star is a true champion himself and the course and distance of the King George is tailor made for his racing style. All in all it was a good performance from Long Run and it’s not difficult to see him being able to reverse placings over the slightly longer trip. He has a prep run scheduled for Saturday and all being well this should set him up nicely for the big one in March.

CONS – From what we have seen so far he has nothing to fear from the younger chasers but a couple of veterans may not be ready to hand Long Run the Gold Cup on a plate just yet. Midnight Chase absolutely loves Cheltenham and if he’s allowed an easy lead may prove a difficult horse to pass coming up the hill but obviously his main challenger is set to be Kauto Star. The former Champion had his troubles last Season and never jumped with his usual fluency when 3rd in the Gold Cup last year. However, he has come back better this Season and has recorded two victories over Long Run including last time out in the King George. He won’t run again before the Festival but that’s been the case with him for the past few years and he will be a major thorn in the side of Long Run come March. Of course the other problem we have with him is his amateur jockey. It didn’t stop him winning last year but there’s no doubt a professional would make a big difference to his chances.

Conclusion: Possibly the weakest link of the 4 champions but 3m2f is his trip and now we know he acts around Cheltenham it’s difficult to see him being that far away. If we’ve had the first 3 winners and are in the enviable position of having 20/1 about Long Run winning the Gold Cup then there’ll be plenty of opportunities to layoff for a nice profit.

The 20/1 is currently available with Paddy Power.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Subscriptions are now being taken for the 2012 Festival Trends Guides. As the early months are a little quiet on the trends front the annual cost of subscription is available at the moment for just £99.95 (which is the same price as 2011.)

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

However this offer is only available until 1st March when the price will change to £149 and will remain at that price until June 2012. As with last year there will be well over 50 guides included in the membership and over 200 races covered. With the annual membership you get EVERY guide produced in 2012 and covers amongst many, many others;

The Cheltenham Festival, Aintree Grand National meeting, Chester in May, The Guineas, The Derby & Oaks, Royal Ascot, Newmarket July, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, The Arc, The Breeders, The Hennessey, Cheltenham Open meeting, The King George and Welsh National……… 

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

So why susbcribe now?

1) You save £50 by not waiting until March
2) I will make a £10ew Lucky 15 bet on our 4 ante-post selections from our pre-Cheltenham guide (available now). All members paid up by 28th February will have an equal share in any returns.
3) You will get a FREE copy of my forthcoming book ‘2012 Betting Trends: The top 30 trends races of 2012′ (please note this is NOT an E-book but a hard copy and will be sent to every subscriber)
4) The early bird price works out at less than 50p a race and represents an overall saving of well over £200 compared to buying each guide separately or subscribing monthly.
5) This weekends Betfair Hurdle from Newbury is included for all Membership packages

With the cancellation of the popular David Myers Racing Trends Revealed books and the Weatherbys Summer Festival guides there is now a gaping hole in the market where Trends Betting is concerned.So I have decided to produce a book and publish it myself to try and fill that void.

It’s called Betting Trends: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012 and as you can probably guess by the title it covers 30 races (both jumps and flat) that offer the best opportunities for trends betting throughout 2012.

It costs just £14.95 (incl. P&P) and requires no subscription or signing up to any service. Simply pay via Paypal and the book will immediately be sent by first class post to your home address.
 

Although it does feature the Grand National and The Derby not all of the races covered are quite that famous. We’ve gone strictly with those races that have produced the best results for our service over the past few years. That means races like The Topham Chase, Supreme Novices Hurdle and Ayr Gold Cup take their place in the book while the Gold Cup, The Oaks and St Leger areomitted.

Everything you need to help find the winners of those 30 races is here. For each and every race you get:

- The race history including the distance, race conditions, race class and the date of this years race.
- Previous winners dating back to 1999 and including the winners form when they ran in the race, their weight, winners odds, rating and trainer.
- Information on the record of the favourite in the previous races and how fancied the winner was in the betting
- The all important race trends listed from strongest to weakest
- Interesting facts about previous winners
- Tables showing the last 5 winners and how they fitted the main race trends
- The win and place figures for the ages of the horses that have run in the previous12 years
- The win and place figures for the handicap ratings of the horses that have run in the previous 12 years
- An average profile of the previous 12 winners
- The range of winners ages, form, weight, ratings and odds from the last 12 years
- Trainer records for the last 12 years. Number of runners, winners, placed runners and how their horses got on in last years race

and after listing all this we give you a summary of the type of runner you should be looking for when analysing the race.

It’s a 60 page book that is jam-packed with facts and figures which will hopefully provide plenty of winners for 2012……

 Good luck,
Gavin.