Argento Chase
Despite being a Grade 2 Chase run over 3m1f at Cheltenham around 7 weeks before the Festival the Argento Chase, apart from the 2007 winner Exotic Dancer, has been about as informative a trial for the Gold Cup as the 4yo hurdle race run on the same card. The list of winners since Jonjo’s star took the 2007 race include some decent chasers but none of them have exactly gone on to greater things.
The 2008 winner Knowhere went to the Gold Cup but was a very well beaten 6th (48 lengths) behind Denman and spent the rest of his career running in top handicap company. Joe Lively won the following year but never got near to winning another race for the rest of his career which ended with him being fatally injured in Class 2 handicap company on New Years Day 2011. In 2010 the 9yo Taranis caused a bit of a shock when winning from Carruthers but he’d had his training problems in the Season before and this now fragile horse has only run twice since (7th and fell) neither of which was in the Gold Cup. Last years winner Neptune Collonges was 10yo at the time and although he ran in the Gold Cup on his next outing was well down the field and finished 8th of the 13 runners. He’s since been campaigned in handicap company and was beaten in a class 2 race on his last start.
However, this year we may actually get a winner who does go on to lay down a challenge in March as there are a couple of younger chasers in the field who look ready to step up on their previous form. First up is last years Hennessy winner Diamond Harry who has only had the one run since, when 4th behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Bowl at Haydock. He jumped very well that day but paid the price for going toe-to-toe with the rejuvenated Kauto Star for the middle part of the race. He was finally beaten 18 lengths in the race but on his first run for over a year it has to go down as a very decent performance. Time For Rupert was top class over hurdles and chased home Big Bucks in the World Hurdle 2 years ago. Despite winning his first two chases in fine style he has yet to transfer his hurdles form to the fences and was a well beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase at the Festival where he never seemed to be travelling. It’s taken a while for him to find his feet this year and after finishing 2nd in the Charlie Hall and a well beaten 5th in the Betfair Bowl (7 lengths adrift of Diamond Harry) he finally won on his third start in what looked on paper a fairly easy task for him. He’s a multiple course winner and he stays all day but he’ll have to improve again to win this. That’s certainly not out of the question for this 8yo with only 6 chase runs under his belt. The third of the younger chasers is Captain Chris who won both the Arkle and the Grade 1 novice at the Punchestown Festival and is a very consistent horse who has finished in the top 2 on 10 of his 13 runs. He was unlucky not to win the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut when falling at the last with the race his for the taking and then was stepped up in trip for the King George. He did very well to finish 3rd that day but didn’t really convince with his stamina and todays 3m1f around Cheltenham is going to push his stamina to the maximum. If he is to be considered a Gold Cup horse he’s going to have to win today but I just can’t see him making it up that hill after running flat out for 3 miles.
There are a couple of older horses who could make a race of it with the younsters and with previous winners of this race including a 10yo and 11yo they must be given a chance. Midnight Chase ran 5th in last years Gold Cup after graduating from handicap company and began his season falling in a Grade 1 at Down Royal when looking held in 4th. He then went back into handicap company on Boxing Day at Wetherby where he finished a creditable 3rd off top weight (gave winner According to Pete over 2 stone). That looked a step back to form and this front runner cannot be dismissed lightly especially as he has a lot of form over both the distance and the course. Another golden oldie is the totally frustrating Tidal Bay who is now an 11yo. Throughout his career he has always seemed to get going too late and that was really evident in his last few runs for Howard Johnson last Season including in this race and the Gold Cup. He’s had a spin over hurdles for his new trainer and it will be interesting to see if Ruby Walsh can keep the horse in touch with the field for the race and use his finishing kick to full affect.
Little Josh is another front runner and has won over the course but he has stamina and class doubts and would be an unlikely winner. That can also apply to both Any Currency and The Sawyer who would have to find massive improvement from somewhere to get competitive. Knockara Beau has run well at the course before and finished 4th in the RSA Chase in 2010 but he’s not come close to matching that form since over hurdles or fences.
For me it’s between Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase with slight preference for Diamond Harry.
This gives me a nice looking Patent (7 bets) for today of:
Baby Mix 12.55
Broadback Bob 3.10
Diamond Harry 2.35
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2012 Trends
Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.
If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.
http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php
Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!
The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……
>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<
This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.
Good luck,
Gavin.