Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle

The second race from the weekends card that I’m going to take a look at is the 3.10 at Cheltenham which over the last 5 years has proved quite a good guide to the longer distance novice hurdles run at the Festival.

The 2007 winner Witchita Linesman won both here and at the Festival when he took the 3m Novice by an impressive 12 lengths as the 11/8 favourite. In 2008 the winner was Aigle D’or from the Nicky Henderson stable but he was unable to run his race at the Festival and was last of the 13 finishers as the 4/1 favourite in the 2m 4 1/2f Novice. Diamond Harry won in 2009 before running a very creditable 3rd to Mikael D’Haguenet in the 2m5f Novice. In 2010 it was the turn of another Harry, Restless Harry, to win here before trying to win the newly sponsored Albert Bartlett 3m Novice at the Festival. He went off at 8/1 and after leading for most of the way was narrowly headed at the last when he came a cropper. This left Berties Dream to come home as a 33/1 shock winner. Last years classy winner Bobs Worth made no such mistakes and did the double by winning here and in the Albert Bartlett as the 15/8 favourite.

So what of this years runners?

Well, if the bookies ante-post betting is any guide it looks as if the winner is going to have to put up a really decent performance tomorrow if he is to make any impression at the Festival. The shortest priced runner for the NIM Novice Hurdle in March is the Nicky Henderson trained Broadback Bob who is a general 16/1 -20/1 chance at the moment. Knights Pass also gets a quote for that race but is considered an outsider at this stage with odds of around 33/1 - 50/1.

And on all known form so far it’s Broadback Bob who looks the likeliest to put up the kind of performance needed to book his place at the Festival. This former PTP horse ran a fine 6th in the Grade 2 NH flat race at the Aintree festival where he stayed on late and looked as if a longer trip was very much needed. So it was a bit surprising to see him start off in a 2 mile novice at Ascot for his hurdling debut where he needed every yard to catch the decent Cinders And Ashes (won 3 times since) and win by a length. He finally got his chance to run at an extended trip next time out when he ran out a convincing winner of a 2m3f Novice Hurdle at Newbury. This looked an excellent performance as the favourite in this race (who he was giving 7lb) was the Paul Nicholls trained Polisky who had on his previous run been beaten 5 lengths by Fingal Bay. Even allowing for there being something wrong with the favourite that day it’s difficult to see him reversing form tomorrow.

Knights Pass began his career by taking two NH Flat races in such eye catching style that he went off as a 7/1 shot in the Cheltenham Bumper last year. Unfortunately he never got into contention and finished 19th of the 24 runners, beaten over 50 lengths. His hurdling career began at Exeter where he won an average looking novice in fairly decent style. The penalty he received for that win seemed to anchor him next time out when the Henderson trained Tetlami (winner since) and Nicholls trained Black Thunder (winner since) took  the weight advantage and beat him 5 lengths and 2 lengths into third. His trainer then made the decision to run him in a handicap on his next start which turned out to be the right thing to do as he won a Class 3 at Kempton by a couple of lengths. He took that race off a rating of 125 and has since gone up 10lbs.

Alan King’s 4yo Secret Edge is an interesting runner as he gets plenty of weight from the others and has Grade 1 and 2 form in juvenile hurdle races. It’s difficult to equate his form to the older runners but the distance will suit and he has run 3rd to Hinterland (beaten 10 lengths) over this course. He wouldn’t be one of the very best juvenile hurdlers around though and overall I think he’s worth taking on.

Forgotten Gold ran a good race under a penalty last time out when finishing 3rd to Barbatos (ran 5th in this race last year) who had twice been put in his place by Fingal Bay since winning at Aintree. He looks up against it once more but may take one of the placings. Alan Kings frustrating Battonier took second in that race to go with his 3rd at Ascot and 2nd at Southwell. He may struggle to make the frame this time though. Hard To Swallow was back in 4th and has yet to look convincing over hurdles. This winning pointer looked very good when winning a Ffos Las NH flat race but was well beaten at odds on for his hurdling debut and then fell behind Fingal Bay in a Grade 2 at Chepstow. He will need to recapture his old form to get competitive here. John Quinn’s Hawk Mountain was a 90 rated flat horse who recorded a good win on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield. He was another horse to struggle with his penalty next time out when finding having to give 7lb to another fairly decent flat horse and promising hurdler Crackentorp too much. He gets 3lb this time from Broadback Bob and may give him most to do.

In summary, I’d imagine he’s going to be a shortish price tomorrow but it’s difficult to see past Broadback Bob winning this. Odds of around 20/1 (Ladbrokes and Hills) look quite tempting for the NIM Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and I’ll be backing him each way for that race.

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2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,
Gavin.