For the rest of the weeks posts I’m going to take a look at the Cheltenham Festival with one eye on this weekends cards and the other on the ante-post markets which are sure to be shaken up come 5pm Sunday.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
Saturday’s Cheltenham card starts off with a trial for the Triumph Hurdle and with the top 3 in the ante-post markets all set to run it’s bound to have a big impact on the betting for the Festival. Baby Mix, Sadlers Risk and Grumeti currently sit atop of the betting at around 8/1.
I was at Cheltenham when Baby Mix made his British debut and was extremely impressed with the way he won his race. He travelled very well and quickened very nicely to beat the more experienced and, at the time, unbeaten favourite Hinterland. However, as is usually the case in racing, it’s not quite as simple as that as Hinterland was shouldering a penalty for his previous wins and gave Baby Mix 7lb in weight. As he was beaten 7 lengths into second at 1lb per length (the usual weight/length ratio for NH racing) it ought to be really close at the level weights they will race off at Cheltenham on Saturday and in the Triumph. Hence the bookies are taking no chances with the Nicholl’s horse and have him just behind the market leaders on 14/1. Personally, the way Baby Mix swept by the field and the manner of his win I think he will again finish in front of Hinterland and he is a worthy favourite for March.
Sadlers Risk was a pretty decent flat horse for Mark Johnston (rated as high as 100 last summer) and on his hurdling debut he transferred his talents to the jumping game when winning an ordinary looking Kempton novice (2nd favourite ran as if something amiss) by an eased down 17 lengths. Obviously he can only beat those that turn up and he did win as he liked but Saturday’s race will be more of a challenge and should give us a better idea of how good he is. Current odds of 8/1 look a little skinny at present and I’d rather wait until after Saturday before backing this one for the Triumph.
The other one vying for favouritism is Grumeti who saw his price contract for the Triumph despite falling in his last race. He began his hurdling career making full use of the 13lb weight for age advantage when defeating the Paul Nicholls trained 4yo Ted Spread, who was a pretty decent flat horse who actually ran in Workforce’s Derby. That was a 14 length victory and was visually very impressive. On his second run he went to Newbury and was well on his way to another easy win when coming down at the 2nd last. At the time he had a couple of decent flat recruits toiling in his wake and as long as he suffers no ill affects from that fall will be a major player on Saturday. His trainer Alan King has a good record in the Triumph and this one looks his number one candidate at the moment.
I say at the moment because the last 2 Triumph Hurdle winners hadn’t even set foot on a British racecourse at this stage of the Season. They both made their debut in this country at the Kempton meeting held at the end of February and under 3 weeks before the Festival itself. That’s worth bearing in mind before plunging on Saturday’s winner for the Triumph. One such horse that has yet to run over hurdles and features prominently in the betting is the Dessie Hughes trained Minsk. The trainer has made no secret of just how highly he rates this high class ex John Oxx trained horse (won Irish Cesarewitch by 5 1/2 lengths) and with his first run likely to come in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown in February I think we can assume he’ll know what jumping is all about by then. Even so, odds of around 10/1 look a little tight given the form of some of those that have already run over obstacles.
I’m going to throw in another horse who is unraced over hurdles and who isn’t quoted in any betting lists for the Triumph Hurdle. The horse in question cost 120,000 euros after he won a 3yo NH flat race in France last May despite starting slowly. That day he beat Ut De Sivola quite comfortably and that one has since joined Willie Mullins and is unbeaten in two starts. On the back of those two wins he’s a general 14/1 shot for the Triumph and he’s the shortest priced runner from the Mullins stable. On that form line I reckon his French compatriot Utopian, who is now stabled with Nick Gifford, may be worth a very small each way wager if we can get some 66/1 or even 100/1 for the Triumph.
Other runners declared for Saturday’s opener include the Donald McCain Hollow Tree who has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles. His only defeat came at the hands of Hinterland at Cheltenham when he could never quite match the finishing speed of the winner despite receiving 4lb from him. He has since gone on to take the Grade 1 Future Champions Hurdle at Chepstow in heavy ground which looked a good race despite the desperate conditions. The horse he beat that day Countrywide Flame clouted the last hurdle and would have got closer than the 2 1/2 lengths he got beat without that mistake. He’d been mopping up a lot of Summer / early Autumn novice hurdle races in easy fashion and although he may find the Triumph Hurdle a little hot could be just the sort for the 4yo Handicap at the Festival.
The last horse I’m going to have a look at has been largely forgotten about as he has not raced since the end of November when he won a Newbury juvenile hurdle by 10 lengths in comfortable fashion from the Paul Nicholls trained Ranjaan, who himself has won his last 2 races and is a general 12/1 shot for the Triumph. Don’t let Urbain De Sivola’s form figures put you off (U31) as he didn’t look a natural over hurdles to begin with and his first run saw him try to refuse and unseat his rider at the first flight. His second start saw him run from the front and still hold an advantage at the last before he sprawled on landing and lost all momentum. It was case of third time lucky for him though as he finally got his act together with his Newbury win and the way he defeated Ranjaan marks him down as a top class recruit to hurdling. It’s a bit worrying that we haven’t seen him since, as he was an intended runner in the Chepstow Future Champions race, but should we see him again before Cheltenham his current odds of 20/1 (Ladbrokes) may be worth noting.
As long as the Cheltenham race doesn’t cut up too badly and the big names stand their ground we should have a clearer idea about who will win the Triumph Hurdle at around 1pm on Saturday but at this stage I’m going to send a few emails out and see if I can get a fancy price for Utopian for the Triumph. I’ll let you know how I get on.
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2012 Trends
Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.
If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.
http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php
Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!
The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……
>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<
This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
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Good luck,
Gavin.